Aviation Market Intelligence Blog

IBA Insight

Webinars29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

Webinars25Oct 2023

IBA’s Webinar: Redeliveries Revisited

Aircraft redeliveries are complex contractual transactions involving multiple stakeholders. Disputes between parties and delays can cause significant financial and legal ramifications.A thorough understanding of the process and timescales required is essential to navigating a successful redelivery.Watch IBA's asset management experts, plus guest speaker Johnny Champion from law firm Stephenson Harwood, as they share their best practice advice for redelivering aircraft and engines. Watch Here

Webinars20Sep 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar, September 2023

Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand

News & PR10Aug

China Airline Capacity Jumps to Almost Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer reveals that passenger ASKs from Chinese operators were trending at 96% of 2019 levels in July 2023, a strong increase from 89% in June 2023. IBA’s leading aviation intelligence platform, IBA Insight, further shows that in July: Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 97% of pre-pandemic ASKs in July 2023, a gain of +2% compared to June 2023. In July, operators from Africa, North America, Latin America and the Middle East surpassed pre-pandemic capacity, while operators in APAC and Europe continue to lag slightly behind. APAC operator capacity has now surpassed 90% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by a strong July within the Chinese market. Assessing the current trend, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. In July 2023, there were approximately 04 million commercial passenger flights, compared to 2.82 million in June 2023, while 2.64 million flights were recorded in July 2022. Chinese operators recorded 451k commercial passenger flights in July 2023, compared to 388k in June 2023 and 296k in June 2022. There were 110 commercial aircraft deliveries in July 2023, representing a month-on-month and year-on-year variance of -24% and +34% So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45 per month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 35 per month. -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

News & PR01Aug

IBA Acquires Fleetwatch to Enhance Insight Capabilities

IBA, the leading aviation market data and intelligence company, has today announced the acquisition of the Fleetwatch application from Aeromanage. Fleetwatch provides the aviation leasing and finance community with mobile device alerts, linked to aircraft flight events and status changes, using ADS-B data. The application provides enhanced visibility to key stakeholders around how aircraft are being operated, enabling proactive and reactive portfolio management, forming an integral part of their risk mitigation toolkit. Alongside IBA’s recently launched Data and News Alerting from its IBA Insight aviation intelligence platform, the Fleetwatch acquisition, and integration, further demonstrates IBA’s commitment to delivering its clients enhanced insights that can be leveraged to manage risk and drive value creation. IBA's President, Phil Seymour, says: “We are excited to be enhancing our aviation intelligence capabilities with this acquisition of Fleetwatch. It will now form an integral part of our suite of News and Alerting solutions, providing key industry stakeholders such as lessors, banks, investors and insurers with top class insights and live updates about their fleets.” Fleetwatch will provide subscribers to the IBA Insight platform with a range of information, via daily notifications, that can highlight a variety of significant aircraft use scenarios. Fleet/Aircraft Discrimination Users will be able to see if their aircraft are being over or under-utilised compared to the average. Users will also be able to track the aircraft’s flight lengths and distances and compare the average for that model at the same operator. This will enable users to assess evolving operational patterns and whether maintenance implications, such as reserve and compensation rates need to be adjusted for this, to forecast revenue scenarios in PBH (power by the hour) agreements, and to be alerted to return condition scenarios where under or overutilisation is a factor. Grounding Fleetwatch enables users such as lessors, banks and investors to see if their aircraft have been on the ground for prolonged periods, allowing them to contact the operator to enquire about any issues. Fleetwatch will alert users if their aircraft has been grounded for any more than two days, allowing aircraft owners to keep track of their leased fleets and identify any problems early. Prohibited Destinations Lessors, banks, investors and insurers can receive alerts from Fleetwatch which flag if their aircraft have entered prohibited destinations, enabling them to monitor operators’ compliance with contractual terms and any sanction restrictions. Ivan Borysenko, Senior Manager - Director at Aeromanage, said: “The insights that Fleetwatch provides will provide a significant addition to IBA’s aviation intelligence capabilities. It will give the IBA Insight platform users access to timely updates on aircraft status, allowing issues to be identified as early as possible and solutions developed.” -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

News & PR26Jul

IBA’s Latest Aircraft Intelligence Underlines Surging Orders and Recovering Values

The latest Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports (AMIRs) published by IBA underline the strengthening order position and positive underlying value trend in the commercial aircraft market. The quarterly reports from the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company reveal that the Airbus A320neo family locked in the majority of the narrowbody orders at the recent Paris Air Show, with a record 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Airlines also placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the show, including around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s. New narrowbodies Data from the IBA Insight intelligence platform shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft fleet is now accelerating with over 1,100 deliveries. Parking and storage declined compared to previous quarters against a backdrop of strong demand and continued return-to-service following the earlier grounding of the type. Lease rates for the aircraft were in the mid-US$300,000 range in the second quarter, with similar lease rate performance exhibited by the Airbus A320neo. Elevated new aircraft demand was evidenced by a strong spread of orders at the Paris Air Show in June 2023, highlighting how operators looked to lock in future delivery positions for fleet growth and renewal. The Airbus A320neo family attracted the bulk of the narrowbody orders in Paris, which included a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft. Boeing also won new orders for its MAX family in the second quarter, with lessor Avolon placing an order for 40 MAX 8s at the Paris Air Show. Additionally, Ryanair firmly committed to 150 MAX 10 examples, the largest variant of the MAX family, in May, plus options for a further 150. Market values of the MAX 8 and A320neo continue to converge, a trend expected to continue through the third quarter. New examples of both aircraft types are exhibiting values in the US$51.5-53.0 million range during the second quarter, with a slight, yet narrowing premium for the A320neo. IBA’s insights reveal that a strong demand, escalation in new aircraft pricing and the continued high-interest rate environment will drive further increases in values and lease rates of this asset class through the third quarter. Used narrowbodies The positive trend of value recovery continues for the used narrowbody segment as well, with the market value of the popular Boeing 737-800 continuing to trend back towards the base value. The popularity of this aircraft, both in passenger markets and the freighter conversion space, has supported this movement, which is forecast to continue into the third quarter. The competing Airbus A320ceo has had a similar trend, and whilst the aircraft was lagging in value performance last year, the recovery relative to its peer reported in the first quarter has continued to manifest. The used narrowbody market is proving to be an important source of capacity for airlines to fill their Northern Hemisphere summer schedules, with deliveries of new aircraft remaining subdued. Although A320ceo values are recovering, the 737-800 retains a premium, with a 10-year-old example of the former residing below US$20 million in the second quarter, compared to the 737-800 which exhibited values in the low US$20 million range. Feedback from the market suggests a notable uptick in lease rates, supported by competition between airlines to take delivery of available assets. This can be a leading indicator of value performance, so IBA adopts a positive value outlook for this sector of the narrowbody market through 2023. New widebodies IBA’s data shows that new widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo, are benefitting from the recovering long-haul markets post-Covid and the slow supply of new aircraft from the OEMs. To capitalise on this long-term recovery, airlines placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show in June. Customers committed to around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s, with the 787-9 and Airbus A350-1000 proving to be the most popular variants. The 787-9 has received the strongest demand throughout the 787 programme, as the demand has shifted materially from the -8 to the -9 throughout. Likewise, the A350-900 has seen the most demand in its family, with orders approaching 800 and deliveries rising towards 500. Recent order activity appears to be concentrated on the larger A350-1000 variant. While it is yet unclear whether this will develop into a longer-term trend, a strong operator base, attractive payload range capability and a large Boeing 777-300ER fleet of over 800 aircraft in need of longer-term replacement suggest it might. This is particularly true as the entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9 is not due until 2025. Data from IBA Insight shows the market values of the new widebody class continue to recover through the second quarter, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2023. New Airbus A350-900 aircraft values in quarter two were around US$150 million depending on specification, whilst the value of a new A350-1000 approached US$170 million. The Boeing 787-10 attracted values approaching US$160 million for a new aircraft, whilst the mid-size 787-9 was valued in the low-US$140 millions. Used widebodies The mid-life widebody market also benefited from the continued resurgence in long-haul travel. Whilst IBA has yet to see a full recovery in international traffic to pre-pandemic levels, supply chains and labour shortages have shifted a focus to retaining existing fleets, reactivating stored aircraft and bringing in previous-generation aircraft to add capacity. Although storage and parking levels of the Airbus A330ceo family appear relatively high at over 20% of the fleet, there is demand for aircraft in good maintenance condition. Demand for Airbus A330-300 passenger to freighter conversions, combined with rebounding passenger demand, has improved the outlook for values and lease rates. A 10-year-old A330-300 aircraft in half-life condition attracted a market value in the second quarter approaching US$20 million and lease rates in the low-US$200,000 per month range. The Boeing 777-300ER is a beneficiary of the recovery in traffic between Europe and Asia and the steady weekly growth in long-haul country pairs. Lease placements more than doubled in the second quarter, with flag carriers including Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines taking aircraft on lease. Such improved demand, set against a backdrop of continued lease extensions amongst key operators creates a promising outlook for values and lease rates through quarter three. In the second quarter, a five-year-old Boeing 777-300ER was valued at around US$61 million in half-life condition, whilst a typical 10-year-old aircraft was in the low- to mid-US$30 million range. As well as this, Boeing 777-300ER lease rates were around US$350,000 per month. However, some lease extensions were observed at higher rates. Freighters The data in IBA’s AMIRs also reveal insights into the freighter market. IBA previously reported that the value performance of the Airbus A330‑300P2F has continued to show resilience, despite a softening cargo market. A backdrop of increasing feedstock pricing and declining supply is contributing to this trend. IBA continues to observe aircraft being acquired with conversion in mind, with a 2012 vintage example acquired in the second quarter for conversion and operation with DHL. A330-300P2F aircraft in the 2007 to 2013 vintage range attracted a Market Value in the mid‑US$30 million to mid-US$40 million range in quarter two. Despite the dwindling feedstock and strategic move towards the newer A330 conversion products by some of the major operators, including DHL and Amazon, conversions of passenger Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to freighters continued at IAI Bedek’s Tel Aviv conversion facility in the second quarter. Half-life market values in the mid-to high-US$20 million range could be achieved in quarter two for recently converted aircraft with mid-2000 vintages. Lease rates in the second quarter were broadly in the mid-to high-US$200,000 per month range. In the factory freighter market, the 777F continues as the only OEM in-production option and is enjoying stable value and lease rate performance. New aircraft in quarter two attracted a market value in the high-US$150 million to low-US$160 million range. Monthly lease rates were between US$1.25 and US$1.35 million depending on credit and lease terms. Continued strengthening in the passenger 777-300ER market should keep feedstock in tight supply and limit the pace of conversion. With the A350F still four years away and the 777-8F longer still, the Boeing 777F should continue to enjoy a positive outlook over the coming years. - ENDS - Note to Editors Copies of IBA’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports are available to be used upon request. While data and insights may be re-used if credited to IBA, the report may not be copied or re-produced in full. To request a copy of the latest AMIR and EMIR (Engine Market Intelligence Reports) reports, click here. About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Articles

Global Airline Passenger Capacity to Surpass 2019 Levels in October, IBA Predicts

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer predicts that global passenger ASKs (available seat kilometres) will surpass 2019 levels by October 2023, having reached 95% of pre-pandemic ASKs in June 2023.

News & PR06Jul

IBA Enhances Insight Intelligence Platform with Alerting and News Functionality

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has launched a range of enhancements for its IBA Insight platform with new alerting functions, and industry news delivered in partnership with Aviator. Global aviation news is now available to IBA Insight subscribers, covering all aspects of the industry including orders and deliveries, airline earnings, route announcements, start-ups, failures, financing and transactions, ESG and more. IBA has also introduced Alerting to IBA Insight, which allows users to create bespoke alerts based on news and also database changes such as orders, events, statuses and organisation changes. With the ability to set these alerts on a daily, weekly or monthly interval, users will receive emails with downloadable links which contain articles and data linked to the specified alert. Order alerts allow users to understand when new aircraft orders are placed. Users can filter these alerts by aircraft family, types, models or by operators. Event alerts give users the ability to monitor significant events for an aircraft type or airline. The scope of this alerting feature is diverse, ranging from deliveries, lease starts and ends, to damage and aircraft retirement. Additionally, users now have the option of Status alerts. This allows users to stay up to date with changes to the operational status of aircraft they have an interest in such as which assets have returned to service from storage, and which aircraft have moved from active service to parked. Looking more widely at organisations, users can now create alerts based on organisation changes for an aircraft. This can be changes in the aircraft owner, manager, or operator. This enables users to keep track of which aircraft are being transacted, and the operational and financial organisations involved. Nick Stafford, Product Development and Digital Transformation Director at IBA, said: “We are always looking for new ways to ensure our users get the context and data they need to make effective decisions. IBA Insight now allows you to not only access actionable insights on the platform, but also be proactively alerted to industry movements through news and data alerting every day.” More information on IBA Insight and IBA NetZero is available here. -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Articles

Paris Air Show round-up: $72.4bn total, with most firm orders ever

IBA Weekly Date: 23/06/2023 (issue 32) Whilst Paris Air Show is known to be quiet on the last two weekdays, no one quite expected the absence of significant business that would continue until late on Monday. This quiet was broken by a blockbuster 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Air India then followed up by firming their 470 aircraft order the next day. The week had been flush with rumours of large orders, leading IBA to forecast a total greater than 2,000 aircraft. We did not hit that estimate. However, if Turkish Airlines had committed to their rumoured 600 aircraft order, we would’ve been very close! At the time of writing, on Friday lunchtime, the total orders including Firm, MOUs, LOIs and Options reached 1,303 aircraft, worth $72.4bn based on IBA’s 2023 Current Market Values. This is an impressive total, with only 2013 accruing a larger tally. A more interesting detail is that 1,160 (89%) were firm orders, the highest ever. Having firm orders is good news for the programmes in terms of long-term confidence in them as well as securing Pre-Delivery-Payments (PDP). Large orders will allow the operator to demand a superior price, however, the OEM may also be able to benefit from demanding higher PDP in the higher risk transactions. Operators appear to be firming up orders to secure delivery slots in an environment of supply delays. However, with orders of such scale, questions arise as to whether the local markets can accommodate the growth. This is especially the case when the two airlines making the largest orders are in the same country. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence Indian carriers dominated orders as expected The Airbus press conference on Monday got the tally off the ground, announcing 500 new A320 family aircraft for IndiGo. In numerical terms, this eclipsed the 470 Air India order that was firmed on Tuesday, with the Boeing and Airbus announcements happening almost simultaneously, as to avoid one getting more headlines. It is also worth noting that IndiGo already had a backlog of 485 aircraft, putting their new total just shy of the 1,000 mark. IBA values this new order at $28.0bn. Despite the numerical inferiority, IBA value Air India’s order at $33.1bn. This difference can be attributed to Air India also ordering widebodies. Their order in full was 220 aircraft, with Boeing (190x 737 MAXs, 20x 787s and 10x 777Xs) plus 250 aircraft with Airbus (140x A320neos, 70x A321neos and 40x A350s). There is also an option with Boeing for a further 50x 737 MAXs and 20x 787s), which would take their order total to 540. Unlike IndiGo’s Airbus loyalty, the order is split between the two large OEMs, reflecting the very mixed fleet of the Indian flag carrier and its present and future subsidiaries. Including widebodies in the order will likely solidify the airline’s dominant international market share (27.8% share compared to IndiGo’s 10.7% in 2023). The airline severely lags IndiGo in the domestic market share however (26.6% compared with 57.5% of IndiGo). Both are expecting to gain share from each other but will also be reliant on the market’s growth. Recent estimates have the Indian aviation market growing at 9% annually and the country has pledged $12bn to Indian infrastructure. Whether that can accommodate these 970 aircraft before their first flights, is another thing. Avolon led the lessors With the scale of the orders, one could be forgiven for thinking there were lots of participants. Among operators, Western Europeans were conspicuously absent, albeit Ryanair had placed a large 150 aircraft order (plus 150 option) pre-show. It was also the case with lessors. Avolon’s 40x 737s and 20x A330 order, as well as an 80 LEAP engine deal the only large business among them. Interestingly, Avolon’s ratio of orders to current fleet is getting closer to parity, similar to the likes of well-known speculative lessors like Air Lease Corporation (ALC). In an aircraft supply bottleneck, the lessor has more control over lease rental pricing. This is compared to an operator receiving multiple lessor offers for Sale and Leaseback. This relationship of course reverses in oversupply. Their A330s are expected to be delivered through 2026-2029, with the narrowbodies likely in the 2030s. We don’t know what the market will look like then, so these orders are therefore purely speculative. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence Airbus beat Boeing comprehensively The week had success for many OEMs with De-Havilland’s 49 aircraft orders and Embraer’s 28 up among pre-Covid levels. However, the gulf between Airbus and Boeing was quite sizeable. As discussed earlier, IndiGo operate solely A320 family aircraft which pulled the OEM far ahead in the narrowbody stakes. Airbus already led pre-show in total backlog with 8,546 aircraft to Boeing’s 7,069. When looking at the A320neo and 737 MAX alone, the Airbus advantage was 1,300. This is now wider. In the show, Airbus totalled 846 orders. This is over double Boeing’s 356 orders. What is particularly interesting is that Airbus also won on the widebody stakes this year, with 72 firm orders to Boeing’s 40 (excluding 20 on option). Boeing had exceeded Airbus in widebody orders in eight of the last ten years. Boeing will be hoping that production delays to the 777X don’t cause a turning point. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence This IBA Weekly was written by: Neil FraserHead of Consulting Neil FraserManager - Airline Analysis

Articles

Indigo Order Paris Air Show 2023

IndiGo’s order of 500 aircraft has notably eclipsed Air India’s 470 aircraft order made only in February this year (although there was also an option for 70 aircraft). When added to IndiGo's substantial existing backlog, questions will arise whether the Indian market can accommodate this number of aircraft.

Articles

IBA Insight Shows Middle East Airlines Surpassing Pre-Pandemic Capacity

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer shows that Middle Eastern operators surpassed pre-pandemic capacity with ASKs at 103% in May 2023 compared to 2019 levels.

Paris Air Show returns in June 2023 after a four year break.

Articles

IBA's predictions for Paris Air Show 2023

IBA's Chief Economist, Dr. Stuart Hatcher reveals his insights and sales predictions for The Paris Air Show 2023.

Webinars25May 2023

IBA Insight: What is the Outlook for eVTOL Values?

In the third edition of our IBA Insight series, Mike Yeomans, Denesz Thiyagarajan and Rami Abdel Aziz provided an overview of the eVTOL market, their top due diligence advice and the latest insight on residual values. Watch on Demand It’s estimated that 200 companies are currently working to manufacture electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs). So, what is the market demand for these new technologies, and what will the assets be worth? Topics covered will include: Market overview Development update and entry-into-service timelines Valuation drivers and dynamics Valuation case studies for selected eVTOL types Watch on Demand If you have any further questions, please get in touch with [email protected].

Webinars26Apr 2023

IBA's Webinar: ESG in Aviation - What You Need To Know

How can the aviation industry, and more specifically aviation finance, tackle the existential challenges of ESG regulations? What are the ESG regulations and elements that you should be focusing on as an airline and a lessor? We hosted our latest webinar 'ESG in Aviation - What You Need to Know'. Our ESG experts Jeni Stanley & Danny Thurtle provided a comprehensive update on the latest ESG regulations and how they are, and will impact the aviation industry going forwards. Click here to watch the recording

Regional aircraft engine values face turbulence in early 2023

Articles

Turbulence ahead for some regional aircraft engines, whilst others continue to outperform the market.

IBA's experts examine the latest trends in regional engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

Mature Widebody Engines Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in widebody engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

News & PR05Apr

IBA Analysis: Easter Weekend flights close to Pre-pandemic levels

- Some low-cost carriers Easter flying set to be well over 2019 levels - The number of flights operating over the European Easter weekend (7th – 10th April, 2023) will be at 90% of 2019 levels on routes to and from Europe, according to data revealed by IBA the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company.

Articles

Easter flights to be at 90 of pre-pandemic levels within Europe

The number of flights operating over the European Easter weekend between 7th – 10th April 2023 will be at 90% of 2019 levels on routes to and from Europe. Aviation intelligence from IBA Insight also reveals that some low-cost carriers will exceed pre-Covid levels.

Articles

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

“My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes. My son will drive a car. My grandson will ride a camel.” This contested quote relates to the desire to diversify away from an oil-export-dominant economy. Following Qatar and the UAE, it’s now a focus for Saudi Arabia. Aside from the emergence of Avilease last year with the announcement of a 12-aircraft SLB with flynas, the Saudi Public Investment Fund also launched Riyadh Air this week. This was closely followed by the $37Bn list price order for up to 121 x 787-9s to be split between the airline and Saudia. That’s a lot of capacity, and links closely with the Saudi vision to carry 330m passengers by the end of the decade (with close to a third visiting the country). Having spent much of my childhood in Riyadh and witnessing the speed of development, I have no doubt that they can succeed. Might this trigger a Middle Eastern power play whereby Emirates, Etihad and Qatar fight against the Saudi growth to destabilise the profitability for European and Asian carriers hoping to recapture market share? The combined carriers already have 465 passenger aircraft in active service, 95 parked or in storage, and 307 on backlog, I sense that, given their deep pockets, growth will proceed at any cost.

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Articles

ISTAT Americas and IBA's Learning Lunch - what we learned in San Diego

IBA's Chief Economist takes stock of the ain learnings from ISTAT Americas, San Diego, 2023.

Valuations

Webinars29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

Articles

Why to Vote IBA as the Appraiser of the Year

In the world of aviation finance, the Airline Economics Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards stand as the ultimate testament to excellence. Once again, IBA is thrilled to be nominated in the Appraiser of the Year category for 2023. This coveted award is a valuable opportunity to showcase some of our recent accomplishments and demonstrate our unwavering dedication to the airline, banking, and leasing sectors. Click here to vote! Voting is now underway for this year’s awards, marking another exciting moment for us. The IBA Valuations team, secured this prestigious title for the fifth time in 2021, reaffirming our standing as a trusted advisor to the aviation industry, From the global pandemic and aviation downturn to the rapid recovery we have seen this year, IBA has supported the industry with thought leadership, analysis, and guidance for aviation assets across the spectrum. Since then, we have expanded our team and further integrated IBA Insight, our leading aviation intelligence platform to make IBA’s valuation practice stronger than ever. So, here is why you should help us here. 1. Our professional experience is undeniable With over 35+ years of experience in modelling asset values and market data, IBA’s aviation valuations work is driven by an unbeaten number of ISTAT-certified senior appraisers in the industry. This includes four ISTAT Certified Senior Appraisers (including one Fellow) and two Certified Appraisers. Underpinning the experience of our certified appraisers is an unprecedented number of full-time industry analysts working across engineering, aftermarket, valuations, and data intelligence. We are always looking to foster the next generation of aviation finance professionals. 2. We work across all asset classes In 2023 alone, the IBA’s valuations team have appraised 10,000+ assets across more than 1,000 engagements. We have also expanded our expertise to account for new technologies, including eVTOLs. Here are some of the key numbers from the last year: IBA has been involved in 75% of operating lessor due diligence over the last 20 years. With clients across banking, leasing, investing and airlines, we have built a proven track record in the industry that stands year after year. 3. Our specialities are trusted A sincere commitment to providing appraisal around the supply, demand, and value dynamics of all aviation assets across the spectrum drives what we do every day. Our work this year has helped to support decision-making, reporting, and informing market views for some of the largest and most complex aviation asset transactions across the world. In addition to this, we are proud to provide the aviation industry with regular webinars and complimentary thought leadership that address the key topics and challenges faced by our community. Our Aircraft and Engine Market Intelligence reports regularly provide best-in-class aviation intelligence through independently verified aviation data and expert advisory opinion. When it counts, our industry looks to IBA for impartial insights and the most up-to-date intelligence on asset performance. 4. We are backed by detailed data and intelligence For more accurate valuations, our team utilises real-time value and lease rate data points supported by IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform. This secret weapon brings together bringing together IBA's wide-ranging data points on aviation asset values, trends, and liquidity into one place. So, whether it comes to commercial or general aviation aircraft, helicopters, engines, or business jets, we can offer deep expertise with access to better data. 5. We have the winning formula We have been previously recognised as a five-time titleholder of the Appraiser of the Year award. In the highly competitive aviation valuations industry, each win has only strengthened our resolve to continue delivering for our community. As we are going for our sixth win of this coveted accolade this year, we need your help to do it again. If you value IBA’s support and appreciate the work we do, please vote for us as your 'Appraiser of the Year for 2023'.

Webinars20Sep 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar, September 2023

Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand

News & PR08Aug

IBA Forecasts Oversupply of 737-800 P2f Aircraft

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has revealed there are signals of potential oversupply of the Boeing 737-800 passenger to freighter (P2F) aircraft, with 60 conversions forecast for this year alone.

Webinars03Aug 2023

IBA Insight: How are Freighter Values Performing?

The final episode of our IBA Insight webinar series. Over the past four months, IBA’s award-winning Valuations team have been sharing their latest intelligence on aviation values across all major asset types, engines, eVTOLs and helicopters. How do macroeconomic factors influence the narrowbody and widebody freighter markets? IBA’s intelligence discloses weakening cargo load factors and air freight yields. It summarises the active freighter fleet and market supply and demand, highlighting the 737-800’s enduring domination of narrowbody conversions with a potential risk of oversupply. The 767-300ER’s lead will continue for at least 3 years until the A330 takes over. Finally, IBA shares the relative performance of different conversion programmes and anticipated values and lease rate trends for popular freighter types. Watch on Demand

News & PR29Jun

IBA Forecasts Positive Outlook For Helicopter Market

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, outlined a largely positive outlook for the helicopter market in a webinar earlier this week. IBA’s expert panel signposted a number of key positive factors for the market including expected continued growth in helicopter leasing, the easing of supply chain issues, growth opportunities in sectors such as EMS (Emergency Medical Services),offshore and wind farms, and the successful introduction and growth of the super medium helicopter category. Looking at the market overall, IBA lists its addressable value at more than US$55 billion, with a current global fleet of over 22,000 ‘western built’ turbine helicopters. Deliveries of these types have averaged around 500 per year in recent years, with a fall to under 500 in 2022 due to supply chain issues. IBA forecasts that this will recover to 475 - 525 airframes in 2023. Lease penetration is highest in Europe and North America, followed by Asia and South America, with the Leonardo AW139 and the Sikorsky S-92A leading the leasing market. The largest market segment is light helicopters, which remain central to EMS, utility and short-range transport missions. The Airbus H125 and H145, and the Bell 407, are among the most popular models in this category, with an average of 350 annual deliveries for the past five years. IBA estimates up to 360 light helicopters will be delivered in 2023. The medium helicopter fleet reached around 3,800 aircraft by the middle of 2023, used for a variety of functions including EMS, Search and Rescue (SAR) and offshore operations. The most popular aircraft in this category are the Leonardo AW139 and AW169, the Bell 412 and the Airbus H155. IBA forecasts that deliveries will significantly increase in 2023 to as many as 75 helicopters, compared to around 55 in 2022. The newer super medium category, which was initiated in 2013-14 with the introduction of the Leonardo AW189 and Airbus H175, is seen by many as the replacement for existing heavy helicopters given their more compelling operating economics. IBA estimates that up to 10 aircraft of this size will be delivered in 2023. The heavy helicopter segment is dominated by the Airbus H225 and Sikorsky S-92 families. It has experienced very low delivery rates since 2016, but is now experiencing a revival in the used market driven by higher oil prices and increased level of offshore activity. However, delivery rates for the segment are still very modest, with IBA estimating up to four in 2023. IBA forecasts burgeoning growth in a number of key helicopter operating sectors, led by EMS which it estimates will grow from 14% to 19% of the market over the next decade. Offshore operations, taking into account the fast-growing offshore and wind farm sector, are forecast to increase from 4% to 7%, and firefighting from 2% to 3%. All helicopter segments have seen a recovery in values post pandemic, but the heavy segment is lagging behind. The market values of the light, medium and super medium categories are at 115%, 111% and 106% respectively of Base Values, with IBA predicting further value growth for all in 2023 and 2024. However, heavy helicopters are currently at 80% of Base Values with an uncertain future outlook. Lease rates have also recovered significantly, but with the same size category trends. Light helicopter lease rates are now at 112% of 2019 levels, with medium and super mediums both at 110%, and with further growth forecast by IBA for 2023 and 2024. Much like the value outlook, the near-term future of heavy helicopter lease rates remains uncertain and will be heavily influenced by movements in oil price. Should oil remain at current levels or increase, the outlook for heavy helicopter lease rates will remain positive. - ENDS - About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, and most recently winning the Sustainable Technology award for its Carbon Emissions Calculator, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Webinars29Jun 2023

IBA Insight: How are helicopter values performing?

IBA’s Mike Yeomans and Rami Abdel Aziz gave a comprehensive overview of the helicopter market and the latest insights on value performance and trends. Click here to watch on demand

Articles

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

“My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes. My son will drive a car. My grandson will ride a camel.” This contested quote relates to the desire to diversify away from an oil-export-dominant economy. Following Qatar and the UAE, it’s now a focus for Saudi Arabia. Aside from the emergence of Avilease last year with the announcement of a 12-aircraft SLB with flynas, the Saudi Public Investment Fund also launched Riyadh Air this week. This was closely followed by the $37Bn list price order for up to 121 x 787-9s to be split between the airline and Saudia. That’s a lot of capacity, and links closely with the Saudi vision to carry 330m passengers by the end of the decade (with close to a third visiting the country). Having spent much of my childhood in Riyadh and witnessing the speed of development, I have no doubt that they can succeed. Might this trigger a Middle Eastern power play whereby Emirates, Etihad and Qatar fight against the Saudi growth to destabilise the profitability for European and Asian carriers hoping to recapture market share? The combined carriers already have 465 passenger aircraft in active service, 95 parked or in storage, and 307 on backlog, I sense that, given their deep pockets, growth will proceed at any cost.

Singapore Airlines Plane on the run way taking off

Articles

New generation widebody lease rates are rising

New generation widebody lease rates are rising with some lag and more subdued value gains, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour,  Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in our recent webinar. The latest trends in new generation widebody aircraft values and lease rates. Source: IBA Insight. The Airbus A350-900 was at US$925,000 per-month in January 2021 with an increase to US$954,000 per-month in January 2023. We predict this will have risen to US$1,007,000 per-month by July 2023.   Base value movements are more varied for new generation widebody aircraft. The Boeing 7879, 787-10, Airbus A350-900 and A350-1000 continue to grow, whereas the 787-8 and A330-900 fell between 2019 and 2022 (but stabilised into 2023). The latest mid-life widebody aircraft value and lease rate trends. Source: IBA Insight The base value decline for mid-life widebody aircraft has eased with the prospect of some market value recovery through the first half of 2023. A 12-year-old A330-300 was valued at US$20.04 million in 2022, and is predicted to drop to US$19.967 million in 2023. Some mid-life widebody lease rates are increasing, with a 12-year-old B777-300ER sitting at US$314,000 per-month in October 2022 and predicted to rise to US$350,000 per-month by July 2023.  Don’t miss our latest webinars Stay tuned for our forthcoming webinars covering new and existing asset classes. In the coming months we be taking a deep dive into value trends for Engines, EVTOLs, business jets, helicopters, and freighters. Follow us on LinkedIn for updates on our next webinar.  Discover our market-leading aircraft valuations services IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.  Find out more about IBA Valuations

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft values set to climb through 2023

New narrowbody aircraft base values rose beyond the long-term trend into 2023, and lease rates are forecast to climb further this year, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in the first of our new series of valuations webinars.

Webinars22Feb 2023

IBA Insight: How are major asset values performing?

IBA’s award-winning Valuations team shared their latest insights on aircraft values across all major asset types in our new webinar series. In our first edition, Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald will reveal key trends across narrowbody and widebody aircraft, regional jets and turboprops, and freighters. Watch the recording

Webinars13Jan 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar January 2023

Join IBA for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.

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Articles

Key Trends for Global Aviation in 2023 - The IBA Perspective

In this short report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Geoff van Klaveren and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values.

Webinars29Nov 2022

Ask the Appraiser: How are Widebody Aircraft Values Performing?

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes.

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Articles

Ask the Appraiser - How are Regional Jet and Turboprop aircraft values performing?

In the second edition of our ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Phil Seymour examine the trajectory of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, identifying the hottest trends and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the market.

Webinars10Nov 2022

Ask the Appraiser: How are Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values Performing?

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the first of the series, join our experts Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald for an overview of the freighter market. Watch the webinar

An orange, red and white COMAC ARJ21 aircraft lifting off from a runway

Articles

Ask the Appraiser - valuing the COMAC ARJ21

Our experts shine a light on the value and lease rate outlook for the ARJ21 and look at the wider market outlook for the Chinese regional jet.

A boeing 747-400 freighter aircraft on takeoff with a grey sky behind

Articles

Ask the Appraiser: An Overview of the Freighter Market

In the first in our series of ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans examined the trajectory of freighter values, identified the hottest trends in P2F conversions, and explored the impact of macroeconomic factors on the air cargo market.

Webinars03Nov 2022

Ask the Appraiser: Trajectory of Freighter Values

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the first of the series, join our experts Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald for an overview of the freighter market. Watch the recording Topics covered include: The trajectory of freighter values and lease rates The state of supply and demand in air cargo The landscape for P2F conversions What's happening in the macro-economic environment, and the impacts on the sector If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch with Mike Yeomans. The data used in this webinar is from IBA Insight, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. IBA Insight combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.

Webinars12Sep 2022

IBA's Webinar: What does the future hold for Aviation in the Americas?

What's the outlook for Aviation in the Americas? Join IBA, the 2022 Appraiser of the Year, for the latest update on current and future trends and activity across the American aviation industry.Listen in to our panel of experts; Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director – Valuations and Consulting, and Jack Ambrose, Regional Sales Manager (Americas) as they uncover, review and discuss key trends across aviation finance. This session was specifically designed to provide valuable insight that will support the aviation community in the Americas to identify market opportunities, structure deals, and mitigate risk within the current market. Topics include: Macro-economic update – inflation, interest rates, currency, oil price & airline failures Airline activity – US, South American, and Canadian Airlines performance OEM activity – latest on orders Valuation trends & trading activity – Asset performance in 2022 and beyond The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jack Ambrose. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

IBA NetZero

Articles

What Does Virgin Atlantic’s 100% SAF Transatlantic Flight Mean for Net Zero?

The tangible benefits may lie beneath the headline Today, Tuesday, 28th of November 2023 will go down as a milestone for commercial aviation on the path to NetZero. At 11:30 AM GMT, Virgin Atlantic will finally operate a commercial transatlantic flight (VS100) from London Heathrow (LHR) to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) that’s been over a year in the making. The airline was awarded the project, along with £1m in funding, in late 2022 by the UK Government to join forces with industry stakeholders and operate the world’s first net zero commercial transatlantic flight. The primary lever of achieving this feat is the use of 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for both engines of Virgin Atlantic’s 787 Dreamliner, a practice not yet certified for commercial use. The UK Government states that the negative production emissions of SAF can save up to 70% of the lifecycle impact compared to Jet-A, meaning the flight will also be reliant on investment in out-of-sector carbon removals to reach net zero. According to IBA NetZero's commercial aviation carbon calculator, a flight between LHR and JFK on a Boeing 787-9 usually emits around 128 tCO2e, inclusive of the upstream emissions associated with jet fuel production. Using the lifecycle benefit of SAF and carbon removals, this project aims to showcase the options open to long-haul aviation to decarbonise. How did we get here? The 100% SAF nature of the flight represents an impressive feat of stakeholder collaboration, with Boeing and Rolls Royce involved in the physical testing and certification necessary, and the University of Sheffield and ICF involved in calculating a credible value of the lifecycle emissions of the flight. 88% of the 60 tonnes of SAF required is sourced from Air BP, who have produced hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) SAF from used cooking oil in Europe, with the remaining 12% a synthetic aromatic fuel made from corn starch by a US-based producer. While the flight will serve a useful purpose in testing a blend of two SAF types, questions will be raised about the sustainability of feedstock sourcing, considering the lack of local and global availability of supply to produce HEFA and the contentious sustainability credentials of first-generation biofuels, where a crop is grown and immediately used for fuel production. The latter of which is so contentious, it’s not recognised as a supported pathway in the UK and Europe. What does this mean for the industry? Despite the room for discussion over the production of the SAF involved, once VS100 takes off, the focus will switch to a study of the non-CO2 emissions generated. Imperial College London and the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) will undertake an experiment to determine the generation of ice crystals, and contrails, from this new blend of fuels. Furthering aviation’s understanding of its non-CO2 emissions has come to the forefront in recent years, and while significant progress has been made, the question remains as to whether SAF can show a positive impact on the generation of contrails. The outcomes of this study, along with the industry-galvanising showpiece of the world’s first net zero transatlantic flight, will serve as tangible benefits generated. But it will be long after VS100 touches down at JFK that the industry reaps the rewards. Learn more about IBA ESG Consulting Cover image: Virgin Atlantic Interested in hearing more from our ESG Consulting team? Listen to our recent podcast episode "The Latest in Aviation ESG" below, featuring Phil Seymour and Jeni Stanley.

Videos & Podcasts

The Aviation Conversation: The Latest in Aviation ESG

Welcome to The Aviation Conversation. In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour and Jeni Stanley explore recent trends in aviation ESG and share their insights on the latest industry updates.Learn more about IBA NetZero, our commercial aviation carbon calculator.Learn more about IBA Group's aviation ESG consulting services.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - September 2023

Welcome to IBA’s September Sustainability Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions, and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

Articles

Sustainable Aviation Fuel: How Sustainable Is It Really?

To tackle emissions from the aviation industry, at present, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a frequently discussed and relied upon prospect. While research shows SAF is a ‘win’ in theory, there are questions over the supposedly ‘sustainable’ alternatives that are often overlooked.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - August 2023

Welcome to IBA Sustainability Watch: August 2023 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions, and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

Articles

Frequent Flyer Tax

Claims surrounding the concentrated socioeconomic nature of air passenger demand are widespread. In North America in 2017/18, 19% of the population took 4 or more flights per year; accounting for a staggering 82% of all flights in the region[1]. The argument put forwards by those advocating for a frequent flyer levy (FFL) is that the small proportion of populations that fly regularly should be paying for the disproportionate impact they have on aviation’s emissions.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - July 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

Videos & Podcasts

The Aviation Conversation: ESG Regulation and the Impact on Aviation

In this third edition of our popular Aviation Conversation series, IBA's Phil Seymour, Jeni Stanley and Danny Thurtle discuss the challenges faced by the aviation industry as it adapts to the ever changing world of ESG regulations and the road to carbon net zero. Find out more about IBA Group's ESG consultancy services.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - June 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

Articles

What Does Global Temperature Rise Mean for Aviation

Luisa Barnes, Aviation Analyst [email protected] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a report stating that climate change is set to breach the warming limit, set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By the year 2027, they warn of a global 1.5°C temperature rise for the first time and a 2 in 3 chance that within the next five years, we’ll exceed the crucial 1.5°C threshold during a one-year period. So overall, the IPCC expects the next five years to be the hottest ever on record. What’s more, on top of the global warming from anthropogenic activities, it is probable that the oscillating weather system ‘El Niño’ will force temperatures to record levels and profound emission mitigation is urgently needed if we are to avoid irreversible damage.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - May 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

News & PR27Apr

Differing Airline Exposure Levels From EU ETS and CORSIA Regulations

New aviation regulations relating to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and ICAO’s CORSIA scheme will have markedly different impacts on certain airlines and airline types, according to data revealed by the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, IBA. In IBA’s latest webinar, its experts revealed that there are four main driving forces for ESG investing: government and regulatory pressure, ESG material risk and growth, consumer awareness, and Covid-19 as a catalyst. IBA looked at two case studies to demonstrate the impact ESG regulations are having on the aviation industry, ultimately highlighting that the two will have differing impacts on certain airlines and airline types. The first case study was CORSIA, which has a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) process with a baseline set at 85% of 2019 emissions. Implementation has already begun with a pilot phase for volunteering states. However, in the next few years, it will become operational on a mandatory basis. IBA states that emissions are unlikely to exceed the baseline level until 2024 when demand returns to close to pre-pandemic levels. However, it’s not until 2027 that all states are mandated to join. Despite being a global scheme, CORSIA won’t impact regions uniformly. According to data from IBA’s NetZero platform, due to the nature of the European flight network, almost 65% of all European traffic is subject to CORSIA MRV, including a significant portion of short and medium-haul flights. In comparison, only 29% of North American emissions are subject to MRV. The second case study influencing ESG in the market is the EU ETS. Low-cost carriers have a high amount of exposure to the ETS because of the nature of their network and fleet. For example, Ryanair has a total of 13.51 MtCO2 (metric tonnes of CO2) with 10.24 MtCO2 subject to EU ETS according to data from IBA NetZero. Whereas flag carriers and network operators, the majority of whose emissions are generated on long-haul sectors by widebody aircraft, have very little exposure to European carbon prices. Instead, these will be more exposed to CORSIA offset obligations should the industry breach the baseline. For example, Lufthansa has a total of 17.82 MtCO2 with just 3.65 MtCO2 subject to EU ETS as revealed by IBA NetZero. When comparing the schemes, carbon prices in the EU ETS are 20 times higher than a CORSIA offset, and IBA predicts that is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. This stark difference is firstly because the EU ETS was formulated and implemented in 2005, despite aviation not being included until 2012. This meant that for many years the carbon price was low due to a surplus of allowances in the market. It’s only in recent years that the EU allowance (EUA) price has grown to a sufficient price to incentivise transitions. Secondly, while CORSIA may have a similar development pattern, international aviation has not yet exceeded the CORSIA baseline, meaning voluntary offsetting obligations remain negligible. Once the baseline is surpassed, the massive surplus of certified offset projects will begin to decrease, and will continue to do so when the policy becomes mandatory in 2027. However, IBA states that it is unlikely CORSIA will ever match the EUA price. The nature of CORSIA means that the price will be determined by the availability and credibility of offset projects. By comparison, the EUA reflects the price of emitting a tonne of carbon, which will continue to rise as the cap reduces, and it becomes more beneficial to actively reduce scope 1 emissions. Aviation regulations are set to be included in the newest version of the EU Taxonomy, and these will come into force from January 2024. This means that under the correct parameters, investing in aviation will be a ‘green investment’. This will result in more money flowing into the industry, allowing for investment into SAF, carbon capture, fleet renewal and research into new ways of reducing carbon emissions. However, there are limitations to what can be included within the EU Taxonomy which are broken out into four areas: manufacturing, leasing, passenger and freight, and ground handling operations. Additionally, there are strict targets for leasing and airlines to meet. Most significantly, from January 2028 to December 2032, aircraft manufactured must also be certified to operate on a 100% blend of SAF.

Webinars26Apr 2023

IBA's Webinar: ESG in Aviation - What You Need To Know

How can the aviation industry, and more specifically aviation finance, tackle the existential challenges of ESG regulations? What are the ESG regulations and elements that you should be focusing on as an airline and a lessor? We hosted our latest webinar 'ESG in Aviation - What You Need to Know'. Our ESG experts Jeni Stanley & Danny Thurtle provided a comprehensive update on the latest ESG regulations and how they are, and will impact the aviation industry going forwards. Click here to watch the recording

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - April 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

News & PR18Apr

European Parliament approves the world’s first carbon border levy.

New reforms mean that there will be a levy on imports of high-carbon goods from 2026, affecting imported fertilisers, cement, steel, aluminium, electricity, and hydrogen.

Videos & Podcasts

IBA - Accelerating Aviation to Net Zero

IBA is the leading aviation data, intelligence and advisory company, providing award-winning solutions, valuations and asset management. With unrivalled data intelligence through IBA NetZero and IBA Insight, they work with airlines, financiers, aircraft manufacturers and leasing companies. IBA’s powerful combination of in-house expertise backed up with cutting-edge carbon emissions data from their IBA NetZero platform means IBA is well-adapted to provide industry players with critical support and guidance. In this film, we learn about ESG scoring and assessments, how decarbonizing by 2050 will impact ticket prices and profit and understand how IBA supports companies to achieve their ESG objectives.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - March 2023

The latest news and trends in sustainable aviation from IBA's ESG Consulting team

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Articles

IBA's Carbon Index - What Happened in December 2022?

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. This time, we use IBA NetZero to shine a light on the EU ETS scheme and what it means for operators and portfolios.

Webinars13Jan 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar January 2023

Join IBA for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.

News & PR05Jan

Air China leads Chinese 'Big 3' in Emissions Efficiency Improvements

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today published an analysis of the improving emissions footprint of the ‘Big 3’ Chinese airlines, revealing that Air China is leading the field.

Market Analysis

Videos & Podcasts

The Aviation Conversation: eVTOL Market Update 2023

In this edition, IBA's Mike Yeomans and Denesz Thiyagarajan cover the latest developments in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft space and the forward outlook for market entry. Vote for IBA! Learn more about IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform. Learn more about our aviation valuations services.

Articles

Dubai Airshow 2023 round-up: Widebody orders dominate the show, with Boeing taking more of the spoils

The 2023 Dubai Airshow saw significant order movement, especially in the widebody market, which further proved the region’s unwavering interest in the aircraft class. Boeing Boeing managed to secure most of the show’s widebody orders, mainly thanks to Emirates increasing its, already very sizeable, 777X backlog. This included an additional 55 777-9X as well as restoring the previously cancelled order for 35 777-8X. This brought the airline’s, already market-leading, 777X backlog to 205 aircraft. Additionally, the UAE’s biggest carrier also decided to readjust its 30 787-9 order, changing its composition from 787-9 only to 20 787-8 + 15 787-10. Emirates order wasn’t the only winning front for the American manufacturer, as flydubai also announced its intention to take over the entire 787-9 order from Emirates. This moves them into the widebody market; however, the move is reportedly only to thicken routes. Boeing’s winnings also stretched to the narrowbody area, where SunExpress signed a letter of intention to acquire 17 737-MAX 10s as well as 28 737 MAX 8s, with an option for an additional 45. The American manufacturer also saw an order from SCAT Airlines for 7 737 MAXs. These orders are very much needed if Boeing is to regain its market share in the narrowbody market. Airbus Nonetheless, Airbus was not quiet at the show, with airBaltic placing a firm order for 30 A220-300s, with an option for an additional 20. As the world’s only all-A220 operator, they are seen as something of an ambassador for the type, especially given their commitment amid recent Pratt & Whitney engine issues. The European manufacturer also had greater success on Tuesday, after reaching a provisional agreement with Ethiopian Airlines for 11 A350s, with an option for 6 more. However, the airline did decide to place 11 787 and 20 737 MAX aircraft at the same time, with the option for an additional 15 Dreamliners and 21 MAXs. Emirates was not finished at the show as they eventually decided to award Airbus the consolation sale of 15 additional Airbus A350-900. This was smaller than their initial stated intention of up to 50, due to engine issues to be resolved in the bigger -1000 variant. To add to the Airbus tally, as predicted in IBA weekly, EGYPTAIR has placed an order for 10 A350-900s. Ultimately, the rumours regarding a Turkish Airlines order never came to fruition, as the airline is said to still be in talks with Airbus over its 350+ aircraft order. We are still waiting to see when the airline will reinvest their bumper 2022 profits. Nonetheless, both OEMs and therefore the broader aviation market will be pleased that the large appetite for growth in aviation continues to the close of 2023. Source: IBA Intelligence Written by Neil Fraser, CFA, Manager - Airline Analysis, and Piotr Grobelny, Aviation Analyst.

Webinars25Oct 2023

IBA’s Webinar: Redeliveries Revisited

Aircraft redeliveries are complex contractual transactions involving multiple stakeholders. Disputes between parties and delays can cause significant financial and legal ramifications.A thorough understanding of the process and timescales required is essential to navigating a successful redelivery.Watch IBA's asset management experts, plus guest speaker Johnny Champion from law firm Stephenson Harwood, as they share their best practice advice for redelivering aircraft and engines. Watch Here

Articles

IBA Insight Forecasts Airline Margins to Average 9% by 2025

IBA’s recent post-summer market update highlighted several key insights on the aviation market over the past year while providing an outlook for expectations into 2025. Utilising combined IBA research from our ISTAT-certified experts and aviation intelligence from our IBA Insight platform, we saw mixed, but generally positive performance for the industry across airline performance, aircraft leasing and trading. Measured against pre-pandemic levels, this market recovery continues to rebound despite strong economic pressure and cost factors. To summarise the key takeaways from that session, we’ve broken down some of the central points from that webinar below.

Articles

IBA's 2023 Redelivery Survey

Aircraft redeliveries are complex contractual transactions involving multiple stakeholders. Delays have significant financial ramifications; IBA has previously estimated a typical narrowbody overspend can be around $2M with widebodies even more costly at $4.5M. The parties concerned face numerous, often interdependent, challenges each with different consequences for timescales and having varying financial impacts.

Videos & Podcasts

The Aviation Conversation: Airline Performance 2023

In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour and Dan Taylor explore airline performance over the past year, current industry trends and provide a forward market outlook in the short and long term. Learn more about IBA Airlines, our ground-breaking airline insights platform. Find out more about our aviation consultancy services.

Webinars20Sep 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar, September 2023

Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand

News & PR10Aug

China Airline Capacity Jumps to Almost Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer reveals that passenger ASKs from Chinese operators were trending at 96% of 2019 levels in July 2023, a strong increase from 89% in June 2023. IBA’s leading aviation intelligence platform, IBA Insight, further shows that in July: Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 97% of pre-pandemic ASKs in July 2023, a gain of +2% compared to June 2023. In July, operators from Africa, North America, Latin America and the Middle East surpassed pre-pandemic capacity, while operators in APAC and Europe continue to lag slightly behind. APAC operator capacity has now surpassed 90% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by a strong July within the Chinese market. Assessing the current trend, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. In July 2023, there were approximately 04 million commercial passenger flights, compared to 2.82 million in June 2023, while 2.64 million flights were recorded in July 2022. Chinese operators recorded 451k commercial passenger flights in July 2023, compared to 388k in June 2023 and 296k in June 2022. There were 110 commercial aircraft deliveries in July 2023, representing a month-on-month and year-on-year variance of -24% and +34% So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45 per month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 35 per month. -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - August 2023

Welcome to IBA Sustainability Watch: August 2023 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions, and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

News & PR26Jul

IBA’s Latest Aircraft Intelligence Underlines Surging Orders and Recovering Values

The latest Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports (AMIRs) published by IBA underline the strengthening order position and positive underlying value trend in the commercial aircraft market. The quarterly reports from the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company reveal that the Airbus A320neo family locked in the majority of the narrowbody orders at the recent Paris Air Show, with a record 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Airlines also placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the show, including around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s. New narrowbodies Data from the IBA Insight intelligence platform shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft fleet is now accelerating with over 1,100 deliveries. Parking and storage declined compared to previous quarters against a backdrop of strong demand and continued return-to-service following the earlier grounding of the type. Lease rates for the aircraft were in the mid-US$300,000 range in the second quarter, with similar lease rate performance exhibited by the Airbus A320neo. Elevated new aircraft demand was evidenced by a strong spread of orders at the Paris Air Show in June 2023, highlighting how operators looked to lock in future delivery positions for fleet growth and renewal. The Airbus A320neo family attracted the bulk of the narrowbody orders in Paris, which included a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft. Boeing also won new orders for its MAX family in the second quarter, with lessor Avolon placing an order for 40 MAX 8s at the Paris Air Show. Additionally, Ryanair firmly committed to 150 MAX 10 examples, the largest variant of the MAX family, in May, plus options for a further 150. Market values of the MAX 8 and A320neo continue to converge, a trend expected to continue through the third quarter. New examples of both aircraft types are exhibiting values in the US$51.5-53.0 million range during the second quarter, with a slight, yet narrowing premium for the A320neo. IBA’s insights reveal that a strong demand, escalation in new aircraft pricing and the continued high-interest rate environment will drive further increases in values and lease rates of this asset class through the third quarter. Used narrowbodies The positive trend of value recovery continues for the used narrowbody segment as well, with the market value of the popular Boeing 737-800 continuing to trend back towards the base value. The popularity of this aircraft, both in passenger markets and the freighter conversion space, has supported this movement, which is forecast to continue into the third quarter. The competing Airbus A320ceo has had a similar trend, and whilst the aircraft was lagging in value performance last year, the recovery relative to its peer reported in the first quarter has continued to manifest. The used narrowbody market is proving to be an important source of capacity for airlines to fill their Northern Hemisphere summer schedules, with deliveries of new aircraft remaining subdued. Although A320ceo values are recovering, the 737-800 retains a premium, with a 10-year-old example of the former residing below US$20 million in the second quarter, compared to the 737-800 which exhibited values in the low US$20 million range. Feedback from the market suggests a notable uptick in lease rates, supported by competition between airlines to take delivery of available assets. This can be a leading indicator of value performance, so IBA adopts a positive value outlook for this sector of the narrowbody market through 2023. New widebodies IBA’s data shows that new widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo, are benefitting from the recovering long-haul markets post-Covid and the slow supply of new aircraft from the OEMs. To capitalise on this long-term recovery, airlines placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show in June. Customers committed to around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s, with the 787-9 and Airbus A350-1000 proving to be the most popular variants. The 787-9 has received the strongest demand throughout the 787 programme, as the demand has shifted materially from the -8 to the -9 throughout. Likewise, the A350-900 has seen the most demand in its family, with orders approaching 800 and deliveries rising towards 500. Recent order activity appears to be concentrated on the larger A350-1000 variant. While it is yet unclear whether this will develop into a longer-term trend, a strong operator base, attractive payload range capability and a large Boeing 777-300ER fleet of over 800 aircraft in need of longer-term replacement suggest it might. This is particularly true as the entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9 is not due until 2025. Data from IBA Insight shows the market values of the new widebody class continue to recover through the second quarter, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2023. New Airbus A350-900 aircraft values in quarter two were around US$150 million depending on specification, whilst the value of a new A350-1000 approached US$170 million. The Boeing 787-10 attracted values approaching US$160 million for a new aircraft, whilst the mid-size 787-9 was valued in the low-US$140 millions. Used widebodies The mid-life widebody market also benefited from the continued resurgence in long-haul travel. Whilst IBA has yet to see a full recovery in international traffic to pre-pandemic levels, supply chains and labour shortages have shifted a focus to retaining existing fleets, reactivating stored aircraft and bringing in previous-generation aircraft to add capacity. Although storage and parking levels of the Airbus A330ceo family appear relatively high at over 20% of the fleet, there is demand for aircraft in good maintenance condition. Demand for Airbus A330-300 passenger to freighter conversions, combined with rebounding passenger demand, has improved the outlook for values and lease rates. A 10-year-old A330-300 aircraft in half-life condition attracted a market value in the second quarter approaching US$20 million and lease rates in the low-US$200,000 per month range. The Boeing 777-300ER is a beneficiary of the recovery in traffic between Europe and Asia and the steady weekly growth in long-haul country pairs. Lease placements more than doubled in the second quarter, with flag carriers including Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines taking aircraft on lease. Such improved demand, set against a backdrop of continued lease extensions amongst key operators creates a promising outlook for values and lease rates through quarter three. In the second quarter, a five-year-old Boeing 777-300ER was valued at around US$61 million in half-life condition, whilst a typical 10-year-old aircraft was in the low- to mid-US$30 million range. As well as this, Boeing 777-300ER lease rates were around US$350,000 per month. However, some lease extensions were observed at higher rates. Freighters The data in IBA’s AMIRs also reveal insights into the freighter market. IBA previously reported that the value performance of the Airbus A330‑300P2F has continued to show resilience, despite a softening cargo market. A backdrop of increasing feedstock pricing and declining supply is contributing to this trend. IBA continues to observe aircraft being acquired with conversion in mind, with a 2012 vintage example acquired in the second quarter for conversion and operation with DHL. A330-300P2F aircraft in the 2007 to 2013 vintage range attracted a Market Value in the mid‑US$30 million to mid-US$40 million range in quarter two. Despite the dwindling feedstock and strategic move towards the newer A330 conversion products by some of the major operators, including DHL and Amazon, conversions of passenger Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to freighters continued at IAI Bedek’s Tel Aviv conversion facility in the second quarter. Half-life market values in the mid-to high-US$20 million range could be achieved in quarter two for recently converted aircraft with mid-2000 vintages. Lease rates in the second quarter were broadly in the mid-to high-US$200,000 per month range. In the factory freighter market, the 777F continues as the only OEM in-production option and is enjoying stable value and lease rate performance. New aircraft in quarter two attracted a market value in the high-US$150 million to low-US$160 million range. Monthly lease rates were between US$1.25 and US$1.35 million depending on credit and lease terms. Continued strengthening in the passenger 777-300ER market should keep feedstock in tight supply and limit the pace of conversion. With the A350F still four years away and the 777-8F longer still, the Boeing 777F should continue to enjoy a positive outlook over the coming years. - ENDS - Note to Editors Copies of IBA’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports are available to be used upon request. While data and insights may be re-used if credited to IBA, the report may not be copied or re-produced in full. To request a copy of the latest AMIR and EMIR (Engine Market Intelligence Reports) reports, click here. About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Articles

Global Airline Passenger Capacity to Surpass 2019 Levels in October, IBA Predicts

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer predicts that global passenger ASKs (available seat kilometres) will surpass 2019 levels by October 2023, having reached 95% of pre-pandemic ASKs in June 2023.

Articles

Indigo Order Paris Air Show 2023

IndiGo’s order of 500 aircraft has notably eclipsed Air India’s 470 aircraft order made only in February this year (although there was also an option for 70 aircraft). When added to IndiGo's substantial existing backlog, questions will arise whether the Indian market can accommodate this number of aircraft.

Articles

IBA Insight Shows Middle East Airlines Surpassing Pre-Pandemic Capacity

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer shows that Middle Eastern operators surpassed pre-pandemic capacity with ASKs at 103% in May 2023 compared to 2019 levels.

Articles

IBA's predictions for Paris Air Show 2023

IBA's Chief Economist, Dr. Stuart Hatcher reveals his insights and sales predictions for The Paris Air Show 2023.

Articles

3 Influential women in aviation history (you may not have heard of)

This International Women's Day, we asked the IBA team to highlight the achievements of 3 influential women who made their mark in aviation history, from Spitfires to Concorde.

A KLM 737 passenger jet on the ground at an airport

News & PR08Mar

IBA Analysis - Amsterdam Schiphol flight cap

IBA comments on the legal action planned by airlines following the introduction of flight caps in Amsterdam

Articles

One year on – what’s happened to Russian airline capacity?

Over a year has now passed since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the introduction of sanctions, and the reciprocal closure of western, Russian, and Belorussian airspace to select foreign registered aircraft. This naturally posed a huge challenge to European, Asian, and Russian operators as they worked hard to recover from the Coronavirus pandemic. Finnair elected to use the polar route to reconnect services to Japan, and the southern route to Southeast Asia and China. Flight data from IBA Insight reveals that Finnair operates the same number of flights into Singapore and Tokyo today as they did in 2019, but with increased flight durations on each route of 13% and 31% respectively. The airline’s utilisation of the A350 (with its 300 min ETOPS certification) has helped the carrier adapt flexibly. By contrast, operators such as Scandinavian Airlines have elected to remove Japan from their network altogether and have resumed only 7% of Chinese flights to-date. How have Russian operators been affected by sanctions and airspace closures? Russian operators were, in fact, leading the way in post-pandemic recovery with domestic ASKs already 10% above the 2019 peak by August 2020 and 32% by August 2021. Most notably, domestic ASKs sat at 36% above peak 2019 levels in August 2022, following 4 months of sanctions! Whilst we anticipated domestic growth as a result of a big fall in international capacity, I would have expected the sanctions to have dented passenger traffic to a greater extent. Whilst IBA Insight reveals that flights have reduced by around 11% since 2021, we have also observed flexibility in the utilisation of the Russian fleet. Usage of the A319, 737-700 and 737 classics has reduced in favour of increased deployment of the A321. Furthermore, we have witnessed a 20% increase in the usage of widebody aircraft on domestic routes, placing more reliance on the A330 and 777-300ER, the latter of which has seen a 111% increase in flights. Russian operators halted passenger A350 operations in 2021, and these aircraft were largely grounded at the onset of sanctions. Which international destinations are Russian operators flying to? International Capacity was down by 79% in 2020, recovering to 44% below 2019 levels in 2021. This reduced again to 67% below 2019 levels following sanctions. The number of countries visited by Russian operators had dropped from around 80 to less than 30 by the summer of 2022. The most popular summer destinations for Russian travellers proved to be Turkey (37% of capacity), followed by Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, UAE and Kyrgyzstan (each with around 10% capacity). Winter destinations tell a different story. As of February 2023, Thailand tops the list with 19% of the capacity, followed by UAE with 15% and Turkey coming in third with just 10% (just 29% of summer 2022 capacity). Worthy mentions also include Egypt, Cuba, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and India. These collectively account for 15% of winter capacity but <5% of summer 2022 capacity. Egypt is proving a noteworthy winner, with a 1300% increase in traffic to the country from Russia. This has been buoyed by limited options, and the 2021 lifting of the ban on direct flights to Egyptian resort cities following the crash of Metrojet flight 9268. Locations such as the UAE, Turkey, The Maldives and Sri Lanka are up 50-75% on 2019, whilst Russia’s largest winter sun location, Thailand, still has some ground to catch up. Myself and the team will continue to monitor and report on the evolving situation for Russian carriers and the impact on lessors and the wider aviation finance community. Don’t miss out on the latest aviation intelligence The IBA team share regular insights on all aspects of commercial aviation, from airline capacity and travel trends to aircraft values and ESG strategy. Sign up today to get the latest intelligence from the IBA Weekly newsletter delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up to our IBA Weekly

Articles

Latest financial results indicate a positive outlook for Delta and United

The latest financial results published by two of the ‘big four’ US carriers indicate a positive outlook moving into 2023.

passengers waiting in an airport terminal to board an aircraft through a window

Articles

Airline Consolidation - the outlook for 2023

What types of operators and which global regions are most likely to see consolidation in 2023?

Webinars13Jan 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar January 2023

Join IBA for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.

Passenger to Freighter Conversions

News & PR08Aug

IBA Forecasts Oversupply of 737-800 P2f Aircraft

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has revealed there are signals of potential oversupply of the Boeing 737-800 passenger to freighter (P2F) aircraft, with 60 conversions forecast for this year alone.

Webinars03Aug 2023

IBA Insight: How are Freighter Values Performing?

The final episode of our IBA Insight webinar series. Over the past four months, IBA’s award-winning Valuations team have been sharing their latest intelligence on aviation values across all major asset types, engines, eVTOLs and helicopters. How do macroeconomic factors influence the narrowbody and widebody freighter markets? IBA’s intelligence discloses weakening cargo load factors and air freight yields. It summarises the active freighter fleet and market supply and demand, highlighting the 737-800’s enduring domination of narrowbody conversions with a potential risk of oversupply. The 767-300ER’s lead will continue for at least 3 years until the A330 takes over. Finally, IBA shares the relative performance of different conversion programmes and anticipated values and lease rate trends for popular freighter types. Watch on Demand

A digital rendering of an Embraer 190 passenger to freighter conversion aircraft in the livery of Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC)

Articles

Nordic Aviation Capital confirmed as launch customer for Embraer E-Jet freighters

What does the first order for E-Jet conversion slots mean for Embraer's freighter conversions?

A Boeing 737 jet cargo aircraft with it's cargo door open

Articles

Boeing 737-800 leads passenger to freighter fleet growth in 2022

Our recent webinar highlighted the aircraft types driving the growth in global passenger to freighter conversions.

Freighter aircraft loading cargo in an airport

Webinars29Apr 2022

Emerging Freighter Value Trends for 2022

What is the current and future trajectory for freighter aircraft around the world? In this upcoming webinar, our ISTAT certified Appraisers will share their opinion plus the latest market intelligence from IBA Insight on freighter value performance. Listen in to our panel of experts; Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Consulting, and Jonathan McDonald, Manager – Classic & Cargo Aircraft as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Topics include: How are freighter values and lease rates performing? Which conversion programmes are performing well? How is the landscape of conversion houses changing? How will the Russia/Ukraine conflict impact the freighter market? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Stuart Hatcher. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

An image of a cargo plane being loaded with freight

Articles

Four Key Air Cargo Trends to Watch for in 2022

Using a combination of data sources together with IBA's own research and insights from our aviation intelligence platform, we have identified four key trends that will define the performance of the air freight market in 2022.

A Boeing 767-300ER freighter aircraft operated by UPS airlines in flight with landing gear down

Articles

Which aircraft make the most cost-efficient freighter conversions?

Which commercial aircraft make the most cost-effective freighter conversions? We use InsightIQ to examine the state of play in the market.

Webinars20Oct 2021

The Future of the Passenger - to - Freighter Conversion Market: 2021 and Beyond

The freighter market continues to perform strongly but for how long, and what are the risks to sustained growth and investment? Connect with Phil Seymour, IBA's President, Jonathan McDonald, IBA's Head Analyst Commercial and Ageing Aircraft and Robert Convey, Senior VP at AEI, for an interactive and unmissable session about the freighter market. Topics covered include: What is the current and future outlook for growth, utilisation and transactions? Which conversion programmes are performing well? How is the landscape of conversion houses changing? How good is the supply of conversion candidates? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

An Amazon Prime Air Boeing 737-800BCF aircraft in flight with high lift devices and landing gear extended

Articles

Amazon Air Fleet Grows with E-Commerce Market Boom

Amazon's Prime Air operation commenced flights in 2016 when it secured the use of a single Boeing 767-200BDSF.

A Cathay Pacific Boeing 777-300 aircraft taking off from a runway

Articles

Older Widebody Aircraft Values Suffer Pandemic's Influence

IBA has adjusted base values for older widebody aircraft. Our analysis looks at the state of the market through the lens of two key aircraft types.

Articles

Can P2F Conversions fulfil the unprecedented demand for Global Air Cargo?

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.

Articles

4 Key Drivers of Demand in the Global Air Cargo Market

As well the vital role it continues to play in supporting the global economy, the air cargo market is now becoming increasingly important in powering global COVID vaccine distribution.

Articles

The changing shape of the P2F conversion market

A new batch of P2F converted freighters is currently entering the market but what makes an aircraft appropriate for conversion? Here, IBA considers the factors influencing suitability and anticipates the market's likely direction.

News & PR26Feb

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

Webinars25Feb 2021

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Freighter values in 2021

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your freighter assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA's experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series. In the second of three sessions, our ISTAT qualified appraiser panel will focus on the freighter market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics: How have IBA's asset values and lease rates moved for freighter aircraft? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How strong is conversion demand across the different programmes? What feedstock is available and how competitive is the pricing? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021? The slide deck is available to download here. We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jonathan McDonald

Articles

A New Era of Widebody Freighters

For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.

image of an aeroplane flying above buildings

Articles

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA's Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family.

drawing of an aeroplane flying down to the right followed by a trail left behind

News & PR02Nov

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

News & PR28May

IBA Highlights High Air Freighter Demand But Mixed Long Term Potential For Aircraft Types

20th May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.

Articles

IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019

Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.

Engines

Webinars29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

Articles

Turbulence ahead for some regional aircraft engines, whilst others continue to outperform the market.

IBA's experts examine the latest trends in regional engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

Mature Widebody Engines Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in widebody engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

New generation narrowbody engine values surge beyond 2019 levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in engine values in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

News & PR31Mar

New gen narrowbody engine values surge as mature widebody engines lag

New generation narrowbody engines remain a highly liquid asset with strong orderbooks, reflecting a complete post-pandemic recovery for this type, according to data revealed by the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, IBA.

Webinars30Mar 2023

IBA Insight: How are engine values performing?

IBA’s award-winning Valuations team will be sharing their latest insights on engine values in our new webinar series. In our second edition, Phil Seymour and Jamie Davey will reveal key trends to watch for in 2023, the impact of supply chains and inflation on engines values, values and lease rates update for popular engine types and parts and aftermarket updates. Click here to watch the recording

Articles

Regional aircraft engine values update - March 2022

The latest trends in regional aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA's InsightIQ.

A jet engine fitted to an Aeroflot aircraft in flight

Articles

Which aircraft engines are most exposed to the Ukraine crisis?

IBA's insight has identified that engine lessors are far less exposed to the impacts of the Ukraine Crisis than aircraft lessors.

A view of an orange jet engine fitted to an EasyJet Airbus A320neo aircraft

Articles

Utilisation driving greater value stability for narrowbody aircraft engines

The latest trends in narrowbody aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

A view from the wing of a Boeing 747-400 aircraft showing wingtip and jet engines

Articles

Freighters buck the trend in latest widebody aircraft engine values

The latest trends in aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

Webinars25Mar 2022

Emerging Engine Value Trends for 2022

What is the trajectory for aircraft engines in 2022? In our webinar, IBA's engine appraisers share their opinion plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the state of the market, supply and demand of engines, shop visit forecasts, and much more. Listen in to our panel of experts; Phil Seymour, Company President, David Archer, Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket Value, and Jamie Davey, Manager - Commercial Engines, as they explore the current and future market for engines. Topics include: OEM and aftermarket performance Supply and demand of engines Shop visit forecast Value and lease rate performance Distribution of the fleet The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Articles

Freighter Engine Recovery leads over Passenger Aircraft Engines

Utilisation of freighter aircraft engines is leading over passenger, but such comparisons should be viewed in context, writes David Archer.

A close up view of a jet engine mounted on a Boeing 737

Articles

Narrowbody Aircraft Engine Value Trends Update - October 2021

IBA has reviewed and updated our forecasts for narrowbody aircraft trends in October 2021.

A jet engine mounted on the wing of an Airbus A330 aircraft on takeoff, with flaps and landing gear down

Articles

Widebody Aircraft Engine Value Trends Update - October 2021

IBA has reviewed and updated our forecasts for widebody aircraft engine trends in October 2021.

Webinars30Sep 2021

Tracking the Global Recovery - Engines, all you need to know for Q3

What is the trajectory of aircraft engines in Q3? In our upcoming webinar, IBA's experts, along with Harry Breach, Director at Stifel, will be sharing their views plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the state of the market, supply and demand of engines, shop visit forecasts, and more. Listen in to our panel of experts; Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, and Harry Breach, Director at Stifel, as they explore what the implications are for engines in Q3. Topics covered include: State of the market - utilisation and failures. OEM performance and aftermarket. Supply and demand of engines. Shop visit forecast. Value and lease rate performance. Distribution of the fleet. The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Stuart Hatcher Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

A close up view of an aircraft jet turbofan engine's fan blades

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Tracking Narrowbody Engine Recovery

We analysed utilisation trends for the four most prominent engine families in the narrowbody market to track market recovery.

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Demand for Engine Shop Visits Vital to Aviation Market Recovery

Whilst passenger demand is the key driver in the recovery of the aviation market as a whole, a core indication of health of the engine market is in shop visit demand. This can dictate value performance, lease demand, investor appetite and overall liquidity of the engine market.

Articles

Rolls Royce Commits to 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capability for Civil Aircraft Engines

Rolls-Royce are to test all its civil aircraft engines currently in production to ensure their compatibility with 100%-sustainable aviation fuel by 2023.

Articles

Will Open-rotor Engines Be the Next Great Leap in Decarbonisation?

General Electric and Safran Group are to collaborate on the development of a viable open-rotor engine, 'RISE', destined to power narrowbody aircraft by the mid-2030s. The joint venture between the US and French aero engine giants, named CFM International, intends to make workable a concept first touted in the 1970s. The open-rotor engine dispenses with the traditional pod housing the fan blades seen on high bypass turbofan engines.

Articles

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China's Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Aircraft Management

Articles

Best Practice for Aircraft Redeliveries in 2023

In our recent aircraft redelivery webinar, IBA’s asset management experts highlighted several key issues and changes in trends to lease-ends and redelivery schedules over the past few years. Here are some of the key takeaways from that session.

News & PR26Jul

IBA’s Latest Aircraft Intelligence Underlines Surging Orders and Recovering Values

The latest Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports (AMIRs) published by IBA underline the strengthening order position and positive underlying value trend in the commercial aircraft market. The quarterly reports from the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company reveal that the Airbus A320neo family locked in the majority of the narrowbody orders at the recent Paris Air Show, with a record 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Airlines also placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the show, including around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s. New narrowbodies Data from the IBA Insight intelligence platform shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft fleet is now accelerating with over 1,100 deliveries. Parking and storage declined compared to previous quarters against a backdrop of strong demand and continued return-to-service following the earlier grounding of the type. Lease rates for the aircraft were in the mid-US$300,000 range in the second quarter, with similar lease rate performance exhibited by the Airbus A320neo. Elevated new aircraft demand was evidenced by a strong spread of orders at the Paris Air Show in June 2023, highlighting how operators looked to lock in future delivery positions for fleet growth and renewal. The Airbus A320neo family attracted the bulk of the narrowbody orders in Paris, which included a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft. Boeing also won new orders for its MAX family in the second quarter, with lessor Avolon placing an order for 40 MAX 8s at the Paris Air Show. Additionally, Ryanair firmly committed to 150 MAX 10 examples, the largest variant of the MAX family, in May, plus options for a further 150. Market values of the MAX 8 and A320neo continue to converge, a trend expected to continue through the third quarter. New examples of both aircraft types are exhibiting values in the US$51.5-53.0 million range during the second quarter, with a slight, yet narrowing premium for the A320neo. IBA’s insights reveal that a strong demand, escalation in new aircraft pricing and the continued high-interest rate environment will drive further increases in values and lease rates of this asset class through the third quarter. Used narrowbodies The positive trend of value recovery continues for the used narrowbody segment as well, with the market value of the popular Boeing 737-800 continuing to trend back towards the base value. The popularity of this aircraft, both in passenger markets and the freighter conversion space, has supported this movement, which is forecast to continue into the third quarter. The competing Airbus A320ceo has had a similar trend, and whilst the aircraft was lagging in value performance last year, the recovery relative to its peer reported in the first quarter has continued to manifest. The used narrowbody market is proving to be an important source of capacity for airlines to fill their Northern Hemisphere summer schedules, with deliveries of new aircraft remaining subdued. Although A320ceo values are recovering, the 737-800 retains a premium, with a 10-year-old example of the former residing below US$20 million in the second quarter, compared to the 737-800 which exhibited values in the low US$20 million range. Feedback from the market suggests a notable uptick in lease rates, supported by competition between airlines to take delivery of available assets. This can be a leading indicator of value performance, so IBA adopts a positive value outlook for this sector of the narrowbody market through 2023. New widebodies IBA’s data shows that new widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo, are benefitting from the recovering long-haul markets post-Covid and the slow supply of new aircraft from the OEMs. To capitalise on this long-term recovery, airlines placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show in June. Customers committed to around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s, with the 787-9 and Airbus A350-1000 proving to be the most popular variants. The 787-9 has received the strongest demand throughout the 787 programme, as the demand has shifted materially from the -8 to the -9 throughout. Likewise, the A350-900 has seen the most demand in its family, with orders approaching 800 and deliveries rising towards 500. Recent order activity appears to be concentrated on the larger A350-1000 variant. While it is yet unclear whether this will develop into a longer-term trend, a strong operator base, attractive payload range capability and a large Boeing 777-300ER fleet of over 800 aircraft in need of longer-term replacement suggest it might. This is particularly true as the entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9 is not due until 2025. Data from IBA Insight shows the market values of the new widebody class continue to recover through the second quarter, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2023. New Airbus A350-900 aircraft values in quarter two were around US$150 million depending on specification, whilst the value of a new A350-1000 approached US$170 million. The Boeing 787-10 attracted values approaching US$160 million for a new aircraft, whilst the mid-size 787-9 was valued in the low-US$140 millions. Used widebodies The mid-life widebody market also benefited from the continued resurgence in long-haul travel. Whilst IBA has yet to see a full recovery in international traffic to pre-pandemic levels, supply chains and labour shortages have shifted a focus to retaining existing fleets, reactivating stored aircraft and bringing in previous-generation aircraft to add capacity. Although storage and parking levels of the Airbus A330ceo family appear relatively high at over 20% of the fleet, there is demand for aircraft in good maintenance condition. Demand for Airbus A330-300 passenger to freighter conversions, combined with rebounding passenger demand, has improved the outlook for values and lease rates. A 10-year-old A330-300 aircraft in half-life condition attracted a market value in the second quarter approaching US$20 million and lease rates in the low-US$200,000 per month range. The Boeing 777-300ER is a beneficiary of the recovery in traffic between Europe and Asia and the steady weekly growth in long-haul country pairs. Lease placements more than doubled in the second quarter, with flag carriers including Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines taking aircraft on lease. Such improved demand, set against a backdrop of continued lease extensions amongst key operators creates a promising outlook for values and lease rates through quarter three. In the second quarter, a five-year-old Boeing 777-300ER was valued at around US$61 million in half-life condition, whilst a typical 10-year-old aircraft was in the low- to mid-US$30 million range. As well as this, Boeing 777-300ER lease rates were around US$350,000 per month. However, some lease extensions were observed at higher rates. Freighters The data in IBA’s AMIRs also reveal insights into the freighter market. IBA previously reported that the value performance of the Airbus A330‑300P2F has continued to show resilience, despite a softening cargo market. A backdrop of increasing feedstock pricing and declining supply is contributing to this trend. IBA continues to observe aircraft being acquired with conversion in mind, with a 2012 vintage example acquired in the second quarter for conversion and operation with DHL. A330-300P2F aircraft in the 2007 to 2013 vintage range attracted a Market Value in the mid‑US$30 million to mid-US$40 million range in quarter two. Despite the dwindling feedstock and strategic move towards the newer A330 conversion products by some of the major operators, including DHL and Amazon, conversions of passenger Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to freighters continued at IAI Bedek’s Tel Aviv conversion facility in the second quarter. Half-life market values in the mid-to high-US$20 million range could be achieved in quarter two for recently converted aircraft with mid-2000 vintages. Lease rates in the second quarter were broadly in the mid-to high-US$200,000 per month range. In the factory freighter market, the 777F continues as the only OEM in-production option and is enjoying stable value and lease rate performance. New aircraft in quarter two attracted a market value in the high-US$150 million to low-US$160 million range. Monthly lease rates were between US$1.25 and US$1.35 million depending on credit and lease terms. Continued strengthening in the passenger 777-300ER market should keep feedstock in tight supply and limit the pace of conversion. With the A350F still four years away and the 777-8F longer still, the Boeing 777F should continue to enjoy a positive outlook over the coming years. - ENDS - Note to Editors Copies of IBA’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports are available to be used upon request. While data and insights may be re-used if credited to IBA, the report may not be copied or re-produced in full. To request a copy of the latest AMIR and EMIR (Engine Market Intelligence Reports) reports, click here. About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Videos & Podcasts

The Aviation Conversation: The Challenges of Redelivering Aircraft

Welcome to the Aviation Conversation. In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Denis Brailsford take a deep dive into the challenges faced by both airlines and lessors when redelivering aircraft, and how both parties can prepare for lease ends.

Articles

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

“My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes. My son will drive a car. My grandson will ride a camel.” This contested quote relates to the desire to diversify away from an oil-export-dominant economy. Following Qatar and the UAE, it’s now a focus for Saudi Arabia. Aside from the emergence of Avilease last year with the announcement of a 12-aircraft SLB with flynas, the Saudi Public Investment Fund also launched Riyadh Air this week. This was closely followed by the $37Bn list price order for up to 121 x 787-9s to be split between the airline and Saudia. That’s a lot of capacity, and links closely with the Saudi vision to carry 330m passengers by the end of the decade (with close to a third visiting the country). Having spent much of my childhood in Riyadh and witnessing the speed of development, I have no doubt that they can succeed. Might this trigger a Middle Eastern power play whereby Emirates, Etihad and Qatar fight against the Saudi growth to destabilise the profitability for European and Asian carriers hoping to recapture market share? The combined carriers already have 465 passenger aircraft in active service, 95 parked or in storage, and 307 on backlog, I sense that, given their deep pockets, growth will proceed at any cost.

Videos & Podcasts

The Aviation Conversation: What Does the Future Hold for the A380?

In our first edition of The Aviation Conversation, IBA's President - Phil Seymour, is joined by Geoff van Klaveren, Managing Director - Advisory, and Hashen Hewawasam, Head of Commercial Aircraft Valuation, to discuss the future of the A380.

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

A group of Russian S7 airlines Airbus A320 jet airliner aircraft with airbridge steps attached at an airport

Articles

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

A Ural airlines Airbus A320 passenger jet on the ground at an airport with grass and sky in the background

Articles

How many aircraft are being illegally re-registered by Russian airlines?

We take a look at how many aircraft have been re-registered in Russia to circumvent sanctions on Russian aviation.

Webinars02Mar 2022

Ukraine Crisis and the Impact on Global Aviation: Leading the Conversation

IBA's views on the unfolding conflict and the industry exposure. In response to the escalating emergency in Ukraine, IBA's team of experts and guest speakers will discuss and share thoughts on the evolving situation, the impact for industry stakeholders and practical guidance on how best to mitigate risk. Guest speakers George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace/Defense and Airline Analyst at Bloomberg, and Richard Moody will join IBA's Stuart Hatcher, Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Geoff van Klaveren. Topics include: What is the market exposure across the industry? How could the crisis impact airlines, lessors and banks active in the sector? How could sanctions disrupt the normal financial flows - payments, debt issues, ABS's, and insurance What practical actions are available to the market to mitigate risk? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Webinars14Dec 2021

Emerging trends and new challenges for redelivering aircraft in 2022

Join IBA's asset management and tech experts as they review and discuss new and emerging trends in aircraft and engine leasing redelivery. This session has been produced to provide airlines and lessors with guidance and examples of trends and best practice, the panel will discuss the following topics: What is the forecast for Lease End activity in 2022 and beyond and how does this impact airlines and lessors? To what extent has maintenance reserve claims and exposure increased? Are we seeing new redelivery challenges in the wake of the pandemic? How have transition trends changed? Documentation and Records - what is the future? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

News & PR08Jul

Aviation Recovery Slowly Gathering Momentum, But Substantial Fleet Remains Grounded

The recovery in air traffic is starting to gather momentum on both international and domestic routes, according to data revealed today by IBA at its half year Market Update.

Articles

Can P2F Conversions fulfil the unprecedented demand for Global Air Cargo?

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.

Articles

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

Articles

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe's first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline's take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report

Articles

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

image of Norwegian airlines flying over snowy mountains

Articles

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.

Articles

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960's when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Webinars17Sep 2020

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions. 2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions. Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas: Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in 'the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Articles

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

Articles

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

Repossessions

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

Articles

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

Webinars02Mar 2022

Ukraine Crisis and the Impact on Global Aviation: Leading the Conversation

IBA's views on the unfolding conflict and the industry exposure. In response to the escalating emergency in Ukraine, IBA's team of experts and guest speakers will discuss and share thoughts on the evolving situation, the impact for industry stakeholders and practical guidance on how best to mitigate risk. Guest speakers George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace/Defense and Airline Analyst at Bloomberg, and Richard Moody will join IBA's Stuart Hatcher, Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Geoff van Klaveren. Topics include: What is the market exposure across the industry? How could the crisis impact airlines, lessors and banks active in the sector? How could sanctions disrupt the normal financial flows - payments, debt issues, ABS's, and insurance What practical actions are available to the market to mitigate risk? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Webinars16Jun 2021

IBA and NRF Masterclass: How to manage repossessions and remarket aircraft

IBA in association with Norton Rose Fulbright offered a free virtual masterclass reviewing best practise for managing lease re-negotiations, remarketing and repossessions. Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, was joined by a panel of experts, including Robin Springthorpe, Partner at NRF, to share and provide insight and guidance to operators and the finance community. In this hour-long session, the panel discuss current trends for unscheduled returns and defaults, considerations when re-negotiating leases, best practise for remarketing aircraft and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations. Key outputs include: Risk levels in the current climate Contingency planning Default and termination rights Notices and lease termination formalities Recovering assets, records and maintain asset value Avoiding unwanted repossession cost Remarketing opportunities Lease re-negotiations Lease clauses Lessons learnt from the pandemic The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Peter Walter Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Articles

What is the future for Stobart Air's ATR fleet?

Stobart Air ceased operations on Saturday 12th June 2021. A regional carrier operating flights across the UK and Ireland, the Stobart Air fleet consisted of 12 ATR72-600 aircraft and one ATR42-600 aircraft according to data from IBA's InsightIQ platform.

Articles

3 Impacts of Covid-19 on Aircraft Repossession and Remarketing Timelines

IBA's Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA's submission to the report 'Aircraft Repossession Planning - Practical Considerations' produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.

Webinars18Jun 2020

IBA's Masterclass Webinar: Managing and Preparing for Defaults and Repossessions

In this hour long session, the panel offered guidance and advice to help financiers prepare for unscheduled returns and defaults, outlined how to secure aircraft and engines whilst maintaining asset value and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations. Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, and Oliver Hipperson, Partner at Clifford Chance, were joined by a panel of experts to share and provide insight, best practise and guidance to the finance community on managing unscheduled early redeliveries. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Peter Walter

image of 2 men with paperwork walking away from an aeroplane

Articles

The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?

A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.

Articles

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

image from the underneath of a plane at an airport

Webinars19Mar 2020

IBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020

IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values. Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19. IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In this short and punchy 'how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories. The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

image of the underside of an aircraft at an airport

Articles

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

Transitions

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

Webinars14Dec 2021

Emerging trends and new challenges for redelivering aircraft in 2022

Join IBA's asset management and tech experts as they review and discuss new and emerging trends in aircraft and engine leasing redelivery. This session has been produced to provide airlines and lessors with guidance and examples of trends and best practice, the panel will discuss the following topics: What is the forecast for Lease End activity in 2022 and beyond and how does this impact airlines and lessors? To what extent has maintenance reserve claims and exposure increased? Are we seeing new redelivery challenges in the wake of the pandemic? How have transition trends changed? Documentation and Records - what is the future? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

A view of a narrowbody aircraft cabin, featuring aircraft seats and passengers

Articles

Narrowbody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We investigated aircraft reconfiguration trends through the lens of two narrowbodies, the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320.

An interiorview of a widebody aircraft cabin, with rows of aircraft seats and in flight entertainment screens

Articles

Widebody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We examined widebody aircraft reconfiguration to identify key trends for popular Airbus and Boeing types.

Articles

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

Webinars17Sep 2020

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions. 2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions. Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas: Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in 'the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Articles

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Articles

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

image from inside an aeroplane, from the back looking forward

Articles

Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020

Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.

image of an aeroplane flying through the sky

Articles

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

Read our 2023 update here. Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

image of a man inspecting the underside of a small aircraft

Articles

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

Articles

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

image of a man building an aircraft engine

Articles

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

Helicopters

Articles

What Does the Future of eVTOL Battery Technology Look Like?

As the world looks towards revolutionary forms of air travel, electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles seem to be the main talking point in the realm of futuristic transportation and aviation. eVTOLs are expected to revolutionise the skies and their potential applications are positioned to shift urban mobility while opening new market horizons. In global cities prone to congestion, such as New York, Shanghai, and London, they can serve as an efficient form of alternative transportation in these environments. Similarly, where light helicopters have previously been the market standard, eVTOLs are being positioned as viable replacements for existing, ageing fleets.

News & PR29Jun

IBA Forecasts Positive Outlook For Helicopter Market

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, outlined a largely positive outlook for the helicopter market in a webinar earlier this week. IBA’s expert panel signposted a number of key positive factors for the market including expected continued growth in helicopter leasing, the easing of supply chain issues, growth opportunities in sectors such as EMS (Emergency Medical Services),offshore and wind farms, and the successful introduction and growth of the super medium helicopter category. Looking at the market overall, IBA lists its addressable value at more than US$55 billion, with a current global fleet of over 22,000 ‘western built’ turbine helicopters. Deliveries of these types have averaged around 500 per year in recent years, with a fall to under 500 in 2022 due to supply chain issues. IBA forecasts that this will recover to 475 - 525 airframes in 2023. Lease penetration is highest in Europe and North America, followed by Asia and South America, with the Leonardo AW139 and the Sikorsky S-92A leading the leasing market. The largest market segment is light helicopters, which remain central to EMS, utility and short-range transport missions. The Airbus H125 and H145, and the Bell 407, are among the most popular models in this category, with an average of 350 annual deliveries for the past five years. IBA estimates up to 360 light helicopters will be delivered in 2023. The medium helicopter fleet reached around 3,800 aircraft by the middle of 2023, used for a variety of functions including EMS, Search and Rescue (SAR) and offshore operations. The most popular aircraft in this category are the Leonardo AW139 and AW169, the Bell 412 and the Airbus H155. IBA forecasts that deliveries will significantly increase in 2023 to as many as 75 helicopters, compared to around 55 in 2022. The newer super medium category, which was initiated in 2013-14 with the introduction of the Leonardo AW189 and Airbus H175, is seen by many as the replacement for existing heavy helicopters given their more compelling operating economics. IBA estimates that up to 10 aircraft of this size will be delivered in 2023. The heavy helicopter segment is dominated by the Airbus H225 and Sikorsky S-92 families. It has experienced very low delivery rates since 2016, but is now experiencing a revival in the used market driven by higher oil prices and increased level of offshore activity. However, delivery rates for the segment are still very modest, with IBA estimating up to four in 2023. IBA forecasts burgeoning growth in a number of key helicopter operating sectors, led by EMS which it estimates will grow from 14% to 19% of the market over the next decade. Offshore operations, taking into account the fast-growing offshore and wind farm sector, are forecast to increase from 4% to 7%, and firefighting from 2% to 3%. All helicopter segments have seen a recovery in values post pandemic, but the heavy segment is lagging behind. The market values of the light, medium and super medium categories are at 115%, 111% and 106% respectively of Base Values, with IBA predicting further value growth for all in 2023 and 2024. However, heavy helicopters are currently at 80% of Base Values with an uncertain future outlook. Lease rates have also recovered significantly, but with the same size category trends. Light helicopter lease rates are now at 112% of 2019 levels, with medium and super mediums both at 110%, and with further growth forecast by IBA for 2023 and 2024. Much like the value outlook, the near-term future of heavy helicopter lease rates remains uncertain and will be heavily influenced by movements in oil price. Should oil remain at current levels or increase, the outlook for heavy helicopter lease rates will remain positive. - ENDS - About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, and most recently winning the Sustainable Technology award for its Carbon Emissions Calculator, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

Webinars29Jun 2023

IBA Insight: How are helicopter values performing?

IBA’s Mike Yeomans and Rami Abdel Aziz gave a comprehensive overview of the helicopter market and the latest insights on value performance and trends. Click here to watch on demand

Webinars06Dec 2022

Ask the Appraiser: How are Helicopter Values Performing?

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the final session of the series, join Phil Seymour and Rami Abdel Aziz for an overview of the helicopter market. Watch the recording

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - India's First Gift City Leasing Company

Vman aviation services have launched in India. Read our analysis of the first aircraft leasing company in the 'Gift City'.

Webinars19Oct 2020

IBA's Helicopter Market Update, October 2020

Our helicopter team are regularly being asked challenging questions about the helicopter market and the impact of Covid-19. In this short market review, Alastair Fallon (IBA's Helicopter Aviation Analyst) shares our latest insight on: • The composition of the global commercial helicopter fleet - leased Vs owned • Helicopter deliveries - actual and forecast • Helicopter deployment • Current Market Values for a selection of key helicopter types • Future developments The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Alastair Fallon

Image of a Helicopter flying at an angle

Articles

How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020

IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.

Articles

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

Articles

How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?

With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Ofﬁcer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.

Business Jets

Articles

IBA's Business Jet Market Report January 2022

The global business jet fleet numbers almost 23,000 operational aircraft. With the abnormalities seen in business aircraft supply and demand since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic having a significant effect on the market, IBA's Business Jet report shine a light on current market trends in business aircraft. Some key takeaways include: Though slow and cautious at the start of the pandemic, the Bizjet market has proven resilient andprosperous whilst wider commercial aviation has suffered There is high demand for business jets, and we find ourselves in a fast-paced environment in 2022 This high demand, coupled with low supply, has led to a seller's market Inflated Bizjet values are likely to return to normal as commercial aviation continues to recover ESG targets are likely to prove a key challenge to the market over the coming years Download the full report

Lease Rates

Webinars29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

Articles

Aircraft Values and Lease Rates (September 2023)

As part of our latest post-summer market update for 2023, IBA delivered a vital update on values performance across the different aviation asset classes.

Articles

New generation widebody lease rates are rising

New generation widebody lease rates are rising with some lag and more subdued value gains, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour,  Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in our recent webinar. The latest trends in new generation widebody aircraft values and lease rates. Source: IBA Insight. The Airbus A350-900 was at US$925,000 per-month in January 2021 with an increase to US$954,000 per-month in January 2023. We predict this will have risen to US$1,007,000 per-month by July 2023.   Base value movements are more varied for new generation widebody aircraft. The Boeing 7879, 787-10, Airbus A350-900 and A350-1000 continue to grow, whereas the 787-8 and A330-900 fell between 2019 and 2022 (but stabilised into 2023). The latest mid-life widebody aircraft value and lease rate trends. Source: IBA Insight The base value decline for mid-life widebody aircraft has eased with the prospect of some market value recovery through the first half of 2023. A 12-year-old A330-300 was valued at US$20.04 million in 2022, and is predicted to drop to US$19.967 million in 2023. Some mid-life widebody lease rates are increasing, with a 12-year-old B777-300ER sitting at US$314,000 per-month in October 2022 and predicted to rise to US$350,000 per-month by July 2023.  Don’t miss our latest webinars Stay tuned for our forthcoming webinars covering new and existing asset classes. In the coming months we be taking a deep dive into value trends for Engines, EVTOLs, business jets, helicopters, and freighters. Follow us on LinkedIn for updates on our next webinar.  Discover our market-leading aircraft valuations services IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.  Find out more about IBA Valuations

Webinars13Jan 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar January 2023

Join IBA for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.

Webinars12Sep 2022

IBA's Webinar: What does the future hold for Aviation in the Americas?

What's the outlook for Aviation in the Americas? Join IBA, the 2022 Appraiser of the Year, for the latest update on current and future trends and activity across the American aviation industry.Listen in to our panel of experts; Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director – Valuations and Consulting, and Jack Ambrose, Regional Sales Manager (Americas) as they uncover, review and discuss key trends across aviation finance. This session was specifically designed to provide valuable insight that will support the aviation community in the Americas to identify market opportunities, structure deals, and mitigate risk within the current market. Topics include: Macro-economic update – inflation, interest rates, currency, oil price & airline failures Airline activity – US, South American, and Canadian Airlines performance OEM activity – latest on orders Valuation trends & trading activity – Asset performance in 2022 and beyond The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jack Ambrose. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Webinars22Jul 2022

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar

Join IBA, the 2022 Appraiser of the Year, for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.Listen in to our panel of experts; Phil Seymour, Geoff van Klaveren, Mike Yeomans and Dan Taylor as they uncover, review and discuss trends across aviation finance. This essential update will enrich your understanding of key market indicators and trends as our experts share their insight and opinion on what to expect for the remainder of 2022 and beyond. Topics include: Macro-economic update – how are the changes in inflation, interest rates, currency, and oil price impacting the aviation community? Capacity – what demand are we seeing for PAX and cargo? Asset values – how are aircraft values and lease rates performing? Aircraft deliveries and trading activity – what are the latest trends? Airline profitability – what is the outlook for the remainder of 2022 and beyond? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Geoff van Klaveren. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Articles

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

News & PR12Feb

IBA Sees Least Dilution In New Gen Aircraft Values With A320neo Outpacing 737 Max

New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

News & PR02Nov

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

News & PR02Nov

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

Articles

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960's when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

News & PR16Oct

IBA Appointed ARJ21 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

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News & PR18Sep

Over 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBA

- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground - 18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.

Articles

Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates

Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates. As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.

News & PR28May

IBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market Supply

29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.

image of data across a screen with glasses placed in front

Webinars25May 2020

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values

The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions. Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines. The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

Articles

Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.

As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.

Articles

IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019

The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.

Articles

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

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Articles

How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?

The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time. Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.

Airline Credits

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Does a Global Crisis Drive Airline Start-ups?

While it is becoming clear that the post-pandemic market is providing an opportunity, are global crises in general a breeding ground for brave and bold start-ups?

A man behind a screen of data, reaching to touch a plane

Articles

What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis. In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

Articles

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air's Planned Schedule?

The pandemic's disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA's powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.

Articles

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

Using InsightIQ's analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

News & PR02Nov

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

Articles

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Articles

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates. For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

image of graphs and data being presented

Articles

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

An image showing a yellow Spirit Airlines Airbus A320neo aircraft on the ground at an airport

Articles

Low cost airline capacity to grow past pre-Covid levels in 2022

IBA has forecasted a sharp recovery in capacity and demand in our recent commercial aviation market update.

Webinars29Jul 2021

Tracking the global recovery - Narrowbody and Widebody values update

What is the trajectory of commercial aircraft values around the world? In our upcoming webinar, our experts will be sharing their views plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the speed of recovery, future value performance and what the implications are for aviation finance globally. Listen in to our panel of experts; Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Phil Seymour, Company President, as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Using intelligence from InsightIQ, topics covered include: Regional Recovery Commercial Aircraft: How will aircraft values and lease rates move across narrrowbody and widebody aircraft? What are the driving forces behind future market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen for Q3/4 2021? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Webinars09Jul 2021

IBA's Aviation Market Update - July 2021

The start of the aviation recovery is proving to be inconsistent. Some markets are being constrained by a combination of new virus variants, continued local restrictions, infection rates and the varying pace of vaccine rollouts, whilst other regions are experiencing solid levels of domestic traffic recovery. Join IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, for an update on current and future market trends across the globe. Listen in to our panel of experts; Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Phil Seymour, Company President, as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Using intelligence from InsightIQ, topics covered include: How fast are markets recovering? How are OEMs performing and are we seeing order swaps? What are the latest transactions trends? What are the lease expiry dates forecasting? How are aircraft values and lease rates performing? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

News & PR08Jul

Aviation Recovery Slowly Gathering Momentum, But Substantial Fleet Remains Grounded

The recovery in air traffic is starting to gather momentum on both international and domestic routes, according to data revealed today by IBA at its half year Market Update.

Articles

Airline Industry Analysis: The Impact of Oil Prices & Coronavirus

The historic correlation between high oil prices and airline failures is a proven trend. Combined with Coronavirus, they represent a clear and present danger to airlines.

Articles

Aviation Trends: Booking Spike Shows High Demand For Travel

Data from IBA's InsightIQ platform has revealed strong regional variations in flight data and recovery of load factors.

Articles

3 Impacts of Covid-19 on Aircraft Repossession and Remarketing Timelines

IBA's Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA's submission to the report 'Aircraft Repossession Planning - Practical Considerations' produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.

Webinars26May 2021

IBA & KPMG's Webinar: State of the Industry Debate; Will the Northern Hemisphere be clear for take off this summer?

IBA in partnership with KPMG, join forces to explore key market indicators for the aviation industry. Together, the panel discuss global market performance and the outlook for the coming months. Will the traditionally busy Northern Hemisphere summer deliver for the industry? Using InsightIQ aviation intelligence, join Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans from IBA, and Kieran O'Brien from KPMG, as they discuss the following questions: What are the current key industry trends across regions? Will we see more consolidation in the leasing space? What is the outlook for airlines in the next 6 month? Will the "new" ABS structures improve credit risk and cash retention? Are asset values stabilising? Is the industry preparing for tighter ESG within aviation? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

Articles

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China's Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Articles

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe's first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline's take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report

Articles

The Evolving Structure of Japan's Aviation Market

Lewis Leslie, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Fleets and Values intelligence to explore the structure of the Japanese aviation market. Executive Summary 19% of the Japanese in-service aircraft fleet remains either parked or stored. Aircraft utilisation by Japanese airlines has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels, in line with global utilisation trends. However, the Japanese aviation market is robust and well-placed for growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region in coming years. Large scale fleet renewal is expected within the next 10 years, but the rate of replacement is uncertain due to delays to the Boeing 737 MAX. Sale and Leasebacks accounted for the majority of secondary market transactions in 2020 through to March 2021, with nine recorded. The volume of JOLCO transactions fell last year but is expected to recover as demand for new aircraft returns.

Image of plane tracking data on a world map

News & PR29Apr

IBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment Community

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.

Webinars27Apr 2021

IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar - Japan

IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, provide an overview of the Japanese aviation market. In this session IBA discuss trends across aviation finance in Japan and Asia Pac. Using analysis from InsightIQ, join Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and John Duley, Business Development Manager - Asia, as they discuss the following topics: Aircraft value performance The changing face of Airline Fleets Possible Airline Failures OEM activity What are the changing trends in Retirements? Transactional Activity - Trading Sales and Capital Activity The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: John Duley

Videos & Podcasts

How Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?

The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns? Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA's Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou

News & PR12Mar

Aircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBA

The aircraft engine market is showing early signs of recovery from the worst effects of the Covid-19, but is not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until the mid-2020s, according to leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.

Articles

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

Finlay Grogan, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

News & PR26Feb

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

Webinars25Feb 2021

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Freighter values in 2021

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your freighter assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA's experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series. In the second of three sessions, our ISTAT qualified appraiser panel will focus on the freighter market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics: How have IBA's asset values and lease rates moved for freighter aircraft? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How strong is conversion demand across the different programmes? What feedstock is available and how competitive is the pricing? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021? The slide deck is available to download here. We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jonathan McDonald

Articles

China's Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

Aftermarket & Parts

A group of Aeroflot aircraft at the gates of Moscow airport

Articles

How long can Russian airlines maintain their aircraft?

IBA's experts examine how long Russian operators can keep aircraft flying with a limited supply of parts.

Articles

Freighters buck the trend in latest widebody aircraft engine values

The latest trends in aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

Image of an aeroplane wing and engine in the sky

Articles

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

image of a graph and data on the screen with US dollars over the top

Articles

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

This month Adil Slimani, IBA's Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values. 'Unprecedented' and 'Covid' have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic's tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I'll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV). For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Uncategorised

Events28Jan

Airline Economics: Growth Frontiers Global - Dublin

IBA's Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations & Consulting will be speaking on the 29th January at 16:00 on Aircraft leasing – Lease rates & Valuations. And Jennifer Stanley, Manager – ESG will be speaking at 10:20 on the 31st January on the ESG panel. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist will be speaking at 10:15 on the 31st January on Trading, leasing and operator risk plus supply - and their effect on pricing, failures, supply & demand.

News & PR04Dec

IBA Predicts Long-Term Turbulence in Narrowbody Engine Market

In its latest webinar on the narrowbody engine market, IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, predicted that engine market values and lease rates are likely to increase given the current and ongoing supply chain issues and the more specific GTF engine problem. It expects the industry to suffer longer term due to growing pressure on shop visits and turnaround times, which are forecasted to increase.

News & PR10Oct

IBA Launches Groundbreaking Airline Insights Platform

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today launched IBA Airlines – a groundbreaking new airline insights platform that will enable the aviation industry to monitor airlines’ operational performance, and evaluate their financial position in detail.

News & PR28Sep

IBA Forecasts Airline Margins to Average 9% by 2025

In its post-summer aviation market update webinar, IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, forecast improving airline profits with a global average EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) margin of 9% in the 2025 financial year, compared to just 2% in 2022 and 7% in 2019 prior to the Covid pandemic.

News & PR06Sep

IBA Appoints Gerry Gualtieri as CEO to Drive Growth and Innovation

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has appointed Gerry Gualtieri as CEO.

News & PR31Jul

Impact of Heathrow Fuel Supply Issues on Carbon Emissions

- IBA estimates 1800 tonnes of used/wasted CO2 per day - Phil Seymour, President, IBA. The news that Heathrow Airport has requested airlines to uplift as little fuel as possible at Heathrow means that there will undoubtedly be an increase in CO2 emissions. But what is the order of magnitude and how will airlines manage the situation? IBA estimates that 1800 tonnes of used/wasted CO2 per day is being emitted as a result of the fuel supply issue at Heathrow. With a 9-day problem that Heathrow describe this will result in 16,200 tonnes of used/wasted CO2 being emitted around the planet. Carrying more fuel than is required is known as fuel “tankering”. In the days before CO2 emissions were cared about, it was a practice often used by airlines when considering the price of fuel at their departure airport versus the price of fuel at the destination. There is a cost to carrying more weight/fuel than is required for a specific flight. The heavier an aircraft is the more thrust required to take-off and climb (hence more fuel is used), the more wear and tear on the engines and the heavier landing weight increases the brake wear. As a greater focus on CO2 emissions emerged, the practice of tankering became frowned upon as the increased fuel burn means increased emissions. The request by Heathrow that airlines should aim to limit the fuel they require to be uplifted there means that airlines flying into Heathrow have to take part in tankering. Practically speaking, aircraft flying in from far away destinations will use almost all of their fuel capacity so there will be little option. That is, a B777 inbound from Singapore to Heathrow won’t be able to carry enough fuel for the return trip. However, IBA estimates that around 60 inbound flights every day into Heathrow from regions such as US East Coast and the Middle East could leave their departure airport with enough fuel for the return trip. In a hypothetical example, take a New York JFK to Heathrow return flight of a B777-300ER. A 777-300ER is chosen as it is capable of carrying very high fuel loads, in this example, enough for a return transatlantic flight. Departing from JFK the airline would determine the “trip fuel” being the estimated fuel burn based on the sector characteristic and aircraft weight plus various contingency for diversion/weather issues. For this example, it’s taken as a round-figure fuel load of 60 tonnes, although the fuel burn may be considerably less. Given the request that the airline should bring in as much fuel as possible, the airline will need to depart with a much higher fuel load, in this case, it is assumed an additional 50 tonnes. Hence the aircraft will depart JFK with 110 tonnes of fuel on board. The extra 50 tonnes will also require additional fuel to be used in order to carry the excess weight. Typically, the factor of this will be based on the following for that sector: for every additional 1 tonne of fuel over and above the original planned fuel the additional fuel burn will be 0.2 per tonne. Therefore, in this example, the additional 50 tonnes will burn 10 tonnes of fuel. In CO2 terms this is over 30 tonnes of additional CO2 that will be “used/wasted” to carry that additional fuel. If we assume 60 similar flights per day out of Heathrow this results in 1800 tonnes of used/wasted CO2 per day, or 16,200 tonnes of used/wasted CO2 over the forecasted 9-day issue, being emitted around the planet. Discover IBA NetZero, the definitive commercial aviation carbon calculator. Book a demo today -ENDS- IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye ClarkeEmail: [email protected] / [email protected]: +44 (0)7884 187297

News & PR12Jun

IBA's Predictions for Paris Air Show 2023

Over the past few weeks, we have been focusing heavily on supply chain, order rumours, regional growth, ESG, rising costs, failures pointing the blame at reliability and strengthening airline results; probably the key factors that have so far defined the mood of 2023. That mood has a chance to thoroughly express itself in one week’s time as we head to Paris Air Show after a four-year break. So, IBA has been focusing on considering all the rumours and other key factors, and combining them with our own analysis to develop our customary pre-show predictions. Of course, as we all know, deals aren’t struck at air shows. However, they are the public face of where airlines and lessors can play their hand in securing future market share, the primary PR events for OEMs across all aviation sectors, and serve equally well as the industry barometer to close off the first half of the year.

News & PR30May

IBA Outlines eVTOL Market Value Model

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, examined the eVTOL market in its latest webinar, presenting a valuation model and depreciation trends over a projected 10-20 year lifespan.

News & PR17May

Global Airline Passenger Capacity to Surpass 2019 Levels in July, IBA Predicts

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer shows that monthly global airline passenger capacity as measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs) is steadily reaching pre-pandemic levels, with 95% recorded in April 2023.

News & PR11May

IBA Analysis: Ryanair 300 Aircraft Order Marks Growth In Strategy And Fleet

This week an agreement was made with Boeing for up to 300 737 MAX 10 aircraft. IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, notes that while only 150 will be firm orders, with the remaining being options, a narrowbody order of this scale is more typical of recent orders placed by carriers in Asia or the US. This order also dwarfs the 196 A321 aircraft order of Wizz Air in November 2021.

News & PR25Apr

Asia-Pacific’s Airline Capacity Recovery Accelerates by 20% in Q1 2023

IBA’s Aviation Industry Barometer for March 2023 found that Asia-Pacific airline capacity reached 83% of 2019 ASKs in March 2023 – a jump of 20% in the first quarter of this year.

News & PR15Mar

Flights Increase by a Quarter Since 2022, with Capacity Now Over 90% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today published its monthly Aviation Industry Barometer for February 2023. Data from IBA’s Insight intelligence platform shows a 24% year-on-year increase in passenger flights from February 2022, with 2.3 million commercial passenger flights recorded in February 2023.

News & PR10Mar

IBA Expands Global Sales Team with New Sales Manager for Middle East & Africa

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has expanded its global sales team with the appointment of Robbie Deegan to the newly created position of Sales Manager, Middle East and Africa.

News & PR24Feb

IBA Comments: IAG Full Year Results

Geoff van Klaveren, Managing Director – Advisory at IBA comments:

News & PR10Feb

Narrowbody Aircraft Values Recover In 2022 and Set For 2023 Climb

New narrowbody aircraft base values rose beyond the long-term trend into 2023, and lease rates are forecast to climb further this year, according to data revealed today by IBA the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company.

News & PR06Feb

Global Airline Capacity Continues Growth Despite Asia Lag, IBA Insights Show

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today published its monthly Aviation Industry Barometer for January 2023, showing that there were almost half a million more global commercial passenger flights last month compared to January 2022.

News & PR01Feb

IBA Analysis: High oil and kerosene prices contribute to collapse of Flyr

Norwegian low-cost airline Flyr has entered administration just 18 months after starting operations. IBA Insight reveals that Flyr (which translates from Norwegian as ‘to fly’) operated a fleet of 12 leased aircraft (6 x Boeing 737 NG and 6 x Boeing 737 MAX). Seven of these were owned by Air Lease Corporation. Flyr was a very seasonal operation, with its top city pairs featuring summer flights between Oslo and Alicante, Malaga, Barcelona and Rome, as well as domestic flights within Norway. The airline cut its capacity over the winter of 22/23 to save costs, but ultimately failed to raise the required financing to continue operations. Flyr’s demise follows shortly after the collapse of British regional airline Flybe. This shows us that it is not easy to remain cashflow positive in the weaker winter months, during a high oil price environment. It also makes the strong profits reported by Ryanair in Q3 even more impressive. Kerosene prices come back to bite weaker operators. Jet kerosene prices remain very elevated at USD 1,153 per metric tonne, in part due to a very wide crack spread caused by a lack of refinery capacity. The last time we saw such high kerosene prices was in 2008, just before the Global Financial Crisis. This period saw a similar playbook, with weaker players exiting the market, thereby reducing market capacity and giving other airlines more pricing power to cover higher fuel prices. IBA remains positive on the general aviation recovery presented in our Outlook for in 2023, but we anticipate further failures and airline consolidation to occur amongst some of the weaker players in the coming weeks.

News & PR31Jan

IBA Enhances Insight Platform with launch of OAG Schedules data

31 January, 2023: IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has enhanced the capabilities of its IBA Insight aviation data and intelligence platform with the introduction of OAG flight schedules data. This major addition to IBA Insight, which launches today, delivers enhanced insights on airline flight capacity – both globally and by operator. The integration of OAG’s flight schedules data enables investors, banks, lessors, OEMs and other IBA customers to assess capacity at a global and operator level with forward-looking and historic schedules. Users can also evaluate routes and schedules to understand the demand for specific aircraft types. Using IBA’s tailored dashboards, users can map growth or decline in capacity, allowing them to understand prevailing airline market sentiment. Comparisons can be made using measures such as number of flights, ASK (available seat kilometres), the number of seats, and the number of routes flown. Aircraft portfolio managers can use schedules data to identify the strongest aircraft placement opportunities by observing changes in domestic and international schedules. Both schedule and market share changes at specific airlines can indicate the prevailing mood and trajectory of an operator, and can therefore enable investors, banks and lessors to identify risks in the existing placement of an aircraft portfolio. Phil Seymour, President of IBA, says: “Incorporating OAG’s flight scheduling data enhances IBA Insight, enabling users to make strategic and agile decisions based on a wider range of insights. Our partnership with OAG delivers a greater dynamic and value for our customers and reinforces IBA’s position as a leading provider of aviation market intelligence.” Simon Howard, Global Sales Director at OAG comments: “We’re delighted that our partnership with IBA has enhanced its online offering. OAG’s schedules data is well placed to support the needs of IBA’s users. We look forward to continuing our work together to provide industry leading data.”

News & PR30Jan

IBA Analysis: The demise of Flybe is not a surprise

Earlier this month, IBA’s webinar on the outlook for the aviation industry in 2023 talked about a positive outlook for demand, whilst also warning that there would be increased consolidation and failures of some weaker players. In particular, we highlighted regional airlines being at greater risk, and so it has turned out, with Flybe once again in administration. It is worth remembering that Flybe was a struggling airline well before the pandemic, finding itself increasingly squeezed by low-cost airlines (and no thanks to a ridiculous double taxation on UK domestic flights, which has now been changed). In the run-up to the pandemic, Flybe was trying to find a buyer without success. The airline was eventually rescued by a consortium including Virgin Atlantic, Stobart and Cyrus Capital in 2019. The timing was unfortunate, and Flybe was one of the first casualties of the COVID-19 pandemic, going into administration in March 2020 when lockdowns came into force in the UK and around the world. The lowest cost wins Cyrus Capital bought the business and assets, but in reality, the only real value was the 12 Heathrow slot pairs. Given that these slots were originally owned by British Airways but given up to Flybe as part of a remedy following the BMI takeover, the CAA would not allow Cyrus Capital to have the slots without being a viable operation. Cyrus found itself with no choice but to restart Flybe operations, but with an even worse strategic position than before the pandemic. Our analysis shows that on the routes they operated, their share of seats was only 10%, and they found themselves competing with larger aircraft with a lower cost pear seat. Lowest cost almost always wins on short-haul, and therefore it was inevitable that Flybe would struggle. Will anyone buy Flybe? In theory, the slots revert to British Airways now, and with leased aircraft it is questionable whether there is any value that can be salvaged. Yes - in theory, an investor could buy the business and try again, but is anyone crazy enough to try this? Well, this is the airline industry so, we wouldn’t totally rule it out. Though this is unlikely in our view, easyJet would love to take on British Airways at Heathrow, but 12 slot pairs are not enough to create a viable operation. More consolidation is to come In summary, IBA believes that in 2023, the divide between the strong and the weak will get even wider. We saw Ryanair reporting record Q3 profits today and other Tier 1 players are guiding very positively. So, we continue to believe there will be an acceleration in consolidation in 2023 which is very positive for pricing from the airline’s perspective, if not from the consumer’s.

Hands over an earth globe forecasting aviation net zero emissions

News & PR28Jun

The future emissions impact of the aviation industry

IBA NetZero forecasts the future emissions impact of the aviation industry, helping shape ESG strategies currently being defined around the globe.

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