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Aviation Intelligence

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Welcome to IBA's Aviation Intelligence Hub

Driven by InsightIQ, search IBA's articles, research and analysis that demonstrate our understanding of aviation finance and aircraft asset management

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InsightIQ

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

ArticlesDiscover more

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

ArticlesDiscover more

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

IBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?

WebinarsDiscover more

Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing.   In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates.   Topics covered include:   What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks?  Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit?   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour   We’re nominated for Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the upcoming Aviation 100 Awards. If you would like to show your appreciation of our Valuation Services and Insight, vote IBA Group as the best appraisal service provider by clicking here to complete the short survey.

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

ArticlesDiscover more

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

ArticlesDiscover more

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Is capacity growth improving in Russia and China?

ArticlesDiscover more

Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

ArticlesBoeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.Discover more

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

News & PR02NovDiscover more

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

WebinarsDiscover more

The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

ArticlesDiscover more

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

ArticlesMan looking at engineDiscover more

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

ArticlesWing of plane mid flightDiscover more

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

ArticlesDiscover more

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

IBA Appointed ARJ2 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

News & PR16OctDiscover more

16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

IBA Appoints Phil Talbot As Chief Technology Officer

News & PR29JulDiscover more

July, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has appointed Phil Talbot as Chief Technology Officer (CTO).

Aftermarket & Parts

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

ArticlesDiscover more

This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Valuations

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

ArticlesDiscover more

This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

ArticlesDiscover more

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

ArticlesDiscover more

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

ArticlesBoeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.Discover more

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovDiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

News & PR02NovDiscover more

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

WebinarsDiscover more

The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA Appointed ARJ2 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

News & PR16OctDiscover more

16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

WebinarsDiscover more

IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

IBA's Masterclass: Asset Values Explained

WebinarsDiscover more

Aviation Asset Valuation is often a thoroughly debated and complicated subject - no matter where the industry is in the aviation cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented downturn in air traffic. As such, it is even more important to consider valuation definitions and the correct and valid use of them for pending transaction and for year-end audit purposes.   Designed for airlines, lessors, financiers alike, strengthen and build understanding of valuation methodology by joining IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the year. Combining our specialist valuation skills, with commercial and industry expertise, our Masterclass covers:   All you need to know about Base Value and Market Value and how they should be used - IFRS/IAS 36 Impairment of Assets Should impairment of the airline book value be considered and how market or base value should be applied International Standard on Auditing ISA 620   Voted Appraiser of the Year in 2012, 2018, 2020 and with over 30+ years of knowledgeable market experience, we have a deep understanding of the market. This session is a must for those looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

WebinarsDiscover more

This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020

WebinarsDiscover more

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19.   This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight.   Topics covered included:   Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

IBA Sees Widespread Covid Aircraft Value Drop, but Recovery Expected for Certain Types

News & PR08JulDiscover more

8th July, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has adjusted its market values for all commercial passenger aircraft types across the widebody, narrowbody, regional jet and turboprop categories to reflect the impact of Covid-19.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; understanding, navigating and adapting in the wake of Covid-19

WebinarsDiscover more

Navigating Covid-19: In this short and punchy 60 minute session, Phil Seymour was joined by Stuart Hatcher, COO MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, to discuss key market indicators. Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel review OEM activity, Green shoots in the market and Leasing activity.   To benefit and support our clients and to help enable them to further understand how aviation stakeholders are responding, managing and succeeding in these unprecedented times, IBA are running a new series of fortnightly webinars focused on the aviation market.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour or Mike Yeomans

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsDiscover more

The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines.   The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Narrowbody and widebody aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsDiscover more

Following on from last week's session where IBA presented their approach to valuations and lease rates, our panel take a deeper dive looking specifically at commonly traded aircraft types. Topics covered included; IBA's opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, which assets types are more vulnerable and a 30 minute Q&A session with our panel.   The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers, and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team also review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

ArticlesDiscover more

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

ArticlesDiscover more

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

IBA BizJet Valuations, January 2020

ArticlesDiscover more

Buying aircraft, whether private or commercial, can be a complicated, time-consuming process with potential for plenty of twists, turns, pitfalls and surprises along the way. Thorough due diligence is crucial before purchasing decisions are made; the values involved mean errors can cost millions of dollars.

What Is A Landing Slot And How Much Is One Worth? December 2019

ArticlesDiscover more

IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations, having completed a variety of assignments at airports including LHR and LGW. These valuations have been for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots.

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

ArticlesDiscover more

How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots.   David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast.   If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

ArticlesDiscover more

IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

How Would Aircraft Appraisers Value Concorde Today? March 2019

ArticlesDiscover more

With the recent 50th anniversary of the Concorde's maiden flight, IBA's Phil Seymour, CEO, discusses how aircraft appraisers would value Concorde today.

Impairment of Asset Values Set to Become a Real Issue

ArticlesDiscover more

After a long period of stability and growth in the aviation industry the prospect of asset impairment is starting to rear its head, according to Phil Seymour, the CEO of IBA.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

ArticlesDiscover more

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

ArticlesDiscover more

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

Due Diligence - What Is Your Deal Really Worth? April 2018

ArticlesDiscover more

There was a great deal of activity concerning aircraft lease portfolios during the first few months of 2018. IBA has been advising various investors, with a broad range of investment objectives, with surprising results. Whereas typically investors are seeking at least a 7% return, in some deals the returns were much leaner than anticipated, in others break-even was the optimistic outcome. Both market share and an eagerness to develop a relationship with a particular operator were highlighted as objectives in these cases. With such lean returns, one theme is common to all; robust due diligence (DD) ahead of purchase and a focus on expert ongoing servicing is essential to maximise the opportunity to realise target returns.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

ArticlesDiscover more

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017

ArticlesDiscover more

Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.

IBA & KPMG Seminar Slides: Depreciation, Residual Values and Useful Economic Lives, May 2017

ArticlesDiscover more

In this session IBA partners with KPMG to present an accounting and commercial update, discussing depreciation, residual values and useful economic lives.

Improving Valuations, January 2017

ArticlesDiscover more

Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy for Avolon, published a challenging thought paper last year assessing aircraft appraisers. I want to respond to Dick's thoughts wearing two hats - as the CEO of IBA, a leading aviation consultancy with some 30 years' appraisal experience and data, and as the former chairman of the ISTAT International Appraisers' Program. The timing is right for three reasons - Dick makes many excellent points that need to be kept front of mind as our industry develops; 2017 will likely be the most volatile market for years making appraisal opinion even more important; and Dick and I will debate our respective positions at the AFJ conference in Dublin and this serves as a prelude.

Repossessions

IBA's Masterclass Webinar: Managing and Preparing for Defaults and Repossessions

WebinarsDiscover more

In this hour long session, the panel offered guidance and advice to help financiers prepare for unscheduled returns and defaults, outlined how to secure aircraft and engines whilst maintaining asset value and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations.   Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, and Oliver Hipperson, Partner at Clifford Chance, were joined by a panel of experts to share and provide insight, best practise and guidance to the finance community on managing unscheduled early redeliveries.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Peter Walter

The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?

ArticlesDiscover more

A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

ArticlesDiscover more

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

IBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020

WebinarsDiscover more

IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values.   Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19.   IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed.   In this short and punchy ‘how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA's Repossession and Risk Webinar

WebinarsDiscover more

In response to the unprecedented number of airline bankruptcies and defaults over the first half of 2019, IBA hosted a Risk and Repossession Webinar. Designed around the needs of Lessors, Financiers and Investors, our team of experts looked at credit risk, current levels of stress in the market, offered guidance on approaching defaults and shared our first hand experiences in this area.   Topics included:   Risk & repossessions - what are we seeing in the market place? Keeping up to date with credit risk Repossession best practise   In this session Peter Walter, IBA's Director - Asset Management and Guljar Lehri, Head of Aircraft Transactions and Technical Marketing share their valuable sector expertise.   A copy of our Repossession and Risk slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions, please contact: Peter Walter

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

ArticlesDiscover more

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

Engines

How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery

Events10DecDiscover more

Join IBA's team of engine specialist to review strategies for effectively managing engines for cash preservation and to assess how airlines, lessors, financiers, MRO and OEMs may need to approach the “new normal”. Register For This Webinar Session   The positive news of several Covid-19 vaccines and various testing regimes have spread optimism that travel restrictions will soon ease, passenger confidence will return and the economic impact dissipates quickly in 2021. Whilst we hope for all of these things, it’s likely there will be further challenges ahead and there will certainly be a variety of recovery patterns across the globe.   Join speakers from IBA for a review of how to effectively manage engine assets to build a resilient and cash preserving strategy that supports the road to recovery.   Topic discussed will include:   Shop Visit Forecasts – differing scenarios Is the Engine market outperforming aircraft? The importance of Spare Engine Ratios Do maintenance reserves need to be reviewed? Engine SV options – material use and build standards What is the trade-off between cash preservation v time on wing Impairments – IFRS16 and 36 issues What will fuel aviation’s green future? Register For This Webinar Session

Engine Shop Visit Demand

ArticlesMan looking at engineDiscover more

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

ArticlesWing of plane mid flightDiscover more

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Demand Collapse Driving Down Engine Values And MRO Demand Says IBA

News & PR12OctDiscover more

- Widebody engine values drop by up to 50% -   12th October 2020: The collapse in demand for air travel caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a significant decline in engine values, with a knock on effect on engine MRO, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

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IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

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This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

How Will Covid-19 Impact The Aero Engine Market?

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IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar has been designed specifically around the business needs of investors, lessors, operators and financiers looking to explore the engine market and understand the impact from Covid-19. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community to navigate current challenges, identify future opportunities and mitigate risk.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, share their insight on the impact of Covid-19 on the engine market. Topics covered include; value performance in a crisis for narrowbody and widebody engines, the impact in the short, medium and long term and a review of the A330 engine market and the GE90 market.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: David Archer  

What is the Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings on the LEAP-1B? November 2019

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For CFMI, it would appear that the impact of the 737 MAX grounding has not been detrimental to the LEAP-1B. There remains a strong market outlook for this engine and looking at the Base Value, Half Life, it is performing well and is on par with competing engines in the market. As illustrated in the chart below, there has been no impact on values.

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

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How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots.   David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast.   If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

IBA Identifies A New Trend In Mature Aircraft Asset Management, October 2019

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  Using the valuation tool InsightIQ, it considers the lease rate comparison of several A320 vintages and their respective engines.   London/Dublin/Tokyo - October 3rd 2019: IBA, the independent aviation advisory, valuation and consulting firm has identified a growing trend in mature aircraft management where the leasing of core engine assets is managed separately to the aircraft as a whole. This is becoming increasingly evident based upon the strengths of the CFM-56-5/7B and V2500-A5 engines within the A320 and 737NG fleets.

Is there an impact on the engine market from the 737 MAX groundings?

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IBA Report by David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst: issued September 2019   The grounding of the 737 MAX fleet has been one of the most widely discussed aviation events of recent history. Following two tragic accidents, the 737 MAX fleet remains grounded until the world's aviation authorities deem it fit for service. Speculation has inevitably turned to the impact on the market and the longer term ramifications for both the aircraft and the engines.

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

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IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

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Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

Will The Engine Lease Market Be Able To Meet Critical Demand For Spare Engines?

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Our engine analysts have been investigating recent concerns of spare engine and parts shortages for three commonly traded engines, the V2500-A5, CFM56-7B and -5B. Our findings suggest that the engine lease market will not be able to support the 25-35% increase in shop visit rates forecast for CFM56-7B and -5B engines and continuing strong demand for V2500's in the period 2019-2024. There is currently very limited availability of spares and unless more spare engines are generated by retirements and aircraft teardowns, or airline held spare stock absorbs some of the demand, IBA expect engine inductions and longer TATs will create a log jam further intensified by the impact of compound shop visits i.e. first run, second run and third run overlapping.

Evolution of Technology in the Engine Market, April 2018

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Rather than invest large sums of money into the development of clean-sheet airframe designs, in recent years OEMs have elected to redesign, improve and re-engine already successful airframes for the next generation of aircraft. In many of these cases, the engine accounts for a significant proportion of the efficiency savings.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

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Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

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Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

IBA talk 777 and A380 engines in Aircraft Commerce magazine, May 2017

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The 777 has long been established in its market of medium- and long-haul routes, as the world's largest twin engine commercial aircraft. The 777 entered service in 1995 via the 777-200, and now comprises five passenger series: the 777-200, -200ER, -200LR, -300, and -300ER. There is also a freighter version, the 777-200F. The 777 seats 310-390 passengers, depending on the series, and class configuration and layout of passenger accommodations (LOPA).

Regional & Narrowbody Engines, February 2017

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The fleet of in-service, passenger configured regional and narrowbody aircraft has increased by one-third over the past 10 years. This growing fleet will require used spare engines for various purposes, including the provision of cover for maintenance shop visits. Aircraft Commerce has analysed the regional and narrowbody used engine market to provide a summary of demand, value and lease rate trends.

Helicopters

IBA's Helicopter Market Update, October 2020

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Our helicopter team are regularly being asked challenging questions about the helicopter market and the impact of Covid-19. In this short market review, Alastair Fallon (IBA's Helicopter Aviation Analyst) shares our latest insight on:   • The composition of the global commercial helicopter fleet - leased Vs owned • Helicopter deliveries - actual and forecast • Helicopter deployment • Current Market Values for a selection of key helicopter types • Future developments   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Alastair Fallon    

How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020

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IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

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The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

IBA's 2019 Helicopter Values Guide

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It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.

IBA's Global Helicopter Market Update May 2019

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The recent announcement of Bristow filing for CH11 once again illustrates the challenges faced by those investing and operating in the Helicopter Market. Despite the challenges, there are some positive signs in the market and low levels of growth are forecast for the coming years - up to 4%, with Asia providing some new opportunities.

How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?

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With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.

IBA's Helicopter Market Update August 2019

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It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.   Our Helicopter team are regularly asked challenging questions about the future of the market. In this short market review, IBA's Owen Geach shares our latest insight on:#   Turbine fleet - lease/owned dynamics Helicopter trends OEM market share Deliveries - actual/forecast Financing helicopters   The slide deck is also available to download.   If you have any further questions please contact: Owen Geach

Transitions

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

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To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions.   2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions.   Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas:   Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand   This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

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In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

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As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020

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Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

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Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

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As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

How Far Away Is The Tipping Point For The A320ceo/Neo And B737NG/MAX Transition? June 2018

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IBA's recent Market Update analysis covered a range of market dynamics including our thoughts on the Farnborough Airshow orders, the New Mid-Sized Aircraft and operator profitability. If you missed it, the materials can be accessed here.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

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IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

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Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

Best industry practice for aircraft lease transitions in Aircraft Commerce, March 2017

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says that about 40% of the global commercial aircraft fleet is under operating lease, and that trends indicate this percentage will increase. It emphasises the challenges that can arise when the lessee and lessor look at a lease from different perspectives.

Aircraft Management

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

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What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

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To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions.   2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions.   Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas:   Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand   This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

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The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

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The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

2020 MRO Spend Expected To Drop By More Than 50%

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- Spend set to be less than half of US $90bn forecast -- Engine shop visits and spend taking the biggest hit -- Need for innovation and flexible maintenance programs has never been greater -- Lower cost options such as PMA expected to be in demand -   4th August, 2020: With MRO industry revenues directly related to aircraft utilisation, 2020's total MRO spend will be less than half of the approximately $90bn forecasted, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry Webinar.  

Over 800 Aircraft To Exit Airline Fleets Says IBA

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- Aircraft deliveries less than 50% of 2019 levels -- Almost 500 narrowbody cancellations - 90% for Boeing 737 MAX -   23 July, 2020: Over 800 aircraft have been identified as subject to exit from their current airline fleets, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Mid-Year Market Update.

IBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020

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IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values.   Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19.   IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed.   In this short and punchy ‘how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020

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Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

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Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

ArticlesDiscover more

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

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With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

Maintenance Reserves - a $24bn business, January 2019

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The maintenance reserves industry is estimated to be worth $24bn per annum. Optimising your position to reduce financial exposure is a must for airlines and their stakeholders when selecting aircraft types, agreeing maintenance reserves, forecasting and modelling maintenance events and cash flow.   Download IBA's quick guide for steps to consider before, during and at the end of a lease that will improve your cash flow and reduce exposure.

Lease Rates

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

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- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

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2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

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What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

IBA Appointed ARJ2 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

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16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

Over 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBA

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- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground -   18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.

Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates

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Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates.   As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.

IBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market Supply

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29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines.   The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.

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As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.

Operating Leases - the hidden costs and pitfalls to avoid. What to do? November 2019

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In this joint session between IBA's Peter Walter and Guljar Lehri and IATA's DeeDee Doke and Chris Markou, we look at how airlines can manage their operating leases to avoid millions of dollars of unwanted and hidden cost.

IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019

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The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

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Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?

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The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time.   Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

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Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

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IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

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Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017

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Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.

Market Analysis

What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?

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As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

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Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

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Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

IBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?

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Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing.   In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates.   Topics covered include:   What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks?  Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit?   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour   We’re nominated for Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the upcoming Aviation 100 Awards. If you would like to show your appreciation of our Valuation Services and Insight, vote IBA Group as the best appraisal service provider by clicking here to complete the short survey.

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

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The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

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Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

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- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

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The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

Aircraft Values In Distress Says IBA As Covid Drives Down Demand

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- Airline commercial aircraft fleet drops $60 billion in value -   7th October, 2020: There is a growing divergence between aircraft base and market values as the global effects of the Covid-19 pandemic drive down demand, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

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IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

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It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

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There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

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This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

Over 800 Aircraft To Exit Airline Fleets Says IBA

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- Aircraft deliveries less than 50% of 2019 levels -- Almost 500 narrowbody cancellations - 90% for Boeing 737 MAX -   23 July, 2020: Over 800 aircraft have been identified as subject to exit from their current airline fleets, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Mid-Year Market Update.

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

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In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020.   The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak.   In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic.   In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021.   IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era.   In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years.   Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis.   While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog.   Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain.   Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog.   Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s.   In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future.     Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions.   In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June.     The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter.   Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers.   Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed.   The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020

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IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19.   This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight.   Topics covered included:   Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

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Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

IBA Sees Widespread Covid Aircraft Value Drop, but Recovery Expected for Certain Types

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8th July, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has adjusted its market values for all commercial passenger aircraft types across the widebody, narrowbody, regional jet and turboprop categories to reflect the impact of Covid-19.

IBA's Webinar: The New Curve; Aircraft Values Update

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In session 2 of The New Curve webinar series Navigating Covid-19, IBA's Company President, Phil Seymour, was joined by two of IBA's ISTAT qualified Senior Appraisers to share our latest update to aircraft values. Stuart Hatcher, COO - MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations reviewed and discussed key aircraft value changes.   Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel provided an industry update on recent changes to asset values.   This comprehensive and thought provoking session covered:   Airline failures Key narrow and widebody aircraft asset value changes post Covid-19   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

IBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market Supply

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29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Freighter values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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Our senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on current and future asset performance for specific freighter aircraft. Following on the previous session where IBA presented insight on market performance for narrowbody and widebody commercial aircraft, our panel take a deeper dive looking at the different freighter categories and specific aircraft types. The panel share opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identify which asset types are more vulnerable, flag those that are more resilient and discuss future trends for cargo.Our senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on current and future asset performance for specific freighter aircraft. The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil will be joined by Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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Combining IBA's historical data and experience of several downturns over the past 33 years, IBA's senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance.   The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an IBA ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman . Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst.   IBA present their approach to valuations and lease rates, share opinion on market performance in the near and long term and which assets types will be impacted most.Our panel of experts share their experience and views on values and lease rates.   This interactive session, What are my aviation assets worth, will among other things consider:   The approach taken by IBA's award winning appraisal team to valuing aircraft and engines in the near term Provide examples of the impact on widebody and narrowbody aircraft values in different scenarios including value in use, future base value, part out, distressed sales and lease encumbered valuations Why IBA is taking a shrewd approach and not cutting values without tangible evidence and market transactions, but taking into account evidence from previous downturns Your pain points and burning issues by allowing 30 mins for Q&A with our panel   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020

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According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

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ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

IBA & KPMG Webinar: How could the downturn in passenger demand impact finance modelling for ABS and other aircraft leasing models? April 2020

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Following the success of our recent webinar on the Aircraft ABS market, and in response to demand, Phil Seymour, Company President, from IBA Group and Brendan Crowley, Director, from KPMG Ireland teamed up to assess the likely impact of the current crisis on both narrowbody and widebody aircraft finance models.   This session is a must for must for leasing companies, aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on their portfolios, current leases and investments, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact.   In this session, our experts discuss and address some of the most burning questions through scenario analysis and asset by asset modelling.   Key discussion topics Phil and Brendan try to answer the following:   • How will possible early returns, rental holidays and repossessions impact on previously expected/modelled maintenance events and cashflow? • What risks could lead to an unexpected Event of Default if not monitored? • What are the outcomes and options available to various stakeholders? • Will retirement trends change in the near term? • What is the impact on current market values and lease rates now and in the longer term? • How will models need to change to reflect the current climate and minimise the impact?   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA Forecast Fall In Aircraft Rental And Maintenance Receipts As 60% Of ABS Fleet Grounded

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Slow aviation recovery in China points to longer term global fleet grounding   17th April, 2020: With almost two thirds of all aircraft financed by asset backed securities (ABS) now grounded due to the COVID-19 crisis, receipts of both aircraft rental and maintenance payments are likely to fall, according to leading aviation consultants IBA in a report today.

No break in the financial storm clouds for Interjet. April 2020

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The end of Q1 2020 saw claims emerging that several lessors had repossessed aircraft from Interjet. Sources indicate the repossession of at least 27 Airbus A320ceo and A320neo family aircraft from various lessors between March 24th and April 1st, with a further 20+ aircraft repossessed/returned to lessors from April 2nd to date. The ongoing Covid-19 situation is unprecedented, and no doubt plays a role in Interjet's difficulties. However, with lessors broadly agreeing payment deferrals with troubled airlines, these repossessions hint at ongoing, underlying problems at the airline.

The current state of the Aircraft ABS market and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, April 2020

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IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation have combined forces to provide a review of the ABS market and the stress which travel restrictions from Covid-19 are placing on the Aviation ABS structures. This session is invaluable for all investors in aircraft and engine ABS structures.   Clay Smith from Split Rock Aviation and IBA's Phil Seymour, discuss which transactions may be most at risk and what investors should expect to see going forward.   This session is invaluable for all investors in aircraft and engine ABS structures.   Topics covered include:   An overview of the ABS market Structural issues of ABS deals, such as default triggers and cash traps, and how these impact the various tranches of investors Asset values and future maintenance events Airline strength, asset performance and servicer issues   The slide deck is also available to download If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour  

IBA and Split Rock forecast downgrades to Aircraft asset-backed securities

News & PR02AprDiscover more

Huge losses expected for airlines but ABS defaults unlikely Aircraft lease rates and values forecast to fall 2nd April, 2020: Downgrades are expected to the credit ratings of airlines' aircraft asset-backed securities (ABS) as they struggle to meet the challenges of COVID-19, according to leading aviation consultants IBA and Split Rock Aviation in a report today.

Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020

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The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

How Will Covid-19 Impact The Aero Engine Market?

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IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar has been designed specifically around the business needs of investors, lessors, operators and financiers looking to explore the engine market and understand the impact from Covid-19. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community to navigate current challenges, identify future opportunities and mitigate risk.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, share their insight on the impact of Covid-19 on the engine market. Topics covered include; value performance in a crisis for narrowbody and widebody engines, the impact in the short, medium and long term and a review of the A330 engine market and the GE90 market.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: David Archer  

The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020

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Coronavirus (also referred to as Covid-19) has placed us in totally unprecedented territory; its effects are not localised or industry-specific but touch all aspects of our lives. Government interventions to protect businesses and society will be considerably more widespread than in previous downturn-triggering events, so what happens next is not necessarily what we would ‘normally' predict.

IBA assesses the repercussions facing the aviation finance sector due to Covid-19, March 2020

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Stuart Hatcher, IBA's COO, says the impact of Covid-19 on airline and lessor finances will lead to a decline in aircraft values of over 10% for newer aircraft types and up to 30% for older aircraft in the short term.

European ACMI/ Wet-Lease Market - Short-Term Difficulties, But Long-Term Growth Forecasted, March 2020

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The European ACMI (aircraft. crew, maintenance, insurance)/wet-lease market fleet has grown with an average growth rate (AAGR) of 13.4% in the last five years. According to IBA.iQ, in 2019 the market recorded the highest ever number of wet-lease transactions and year-on-year growth. The number of aircraft servicing the European ACMI market has also grown in tandem with European passengers and fleet growth, at a rate of 13% per annum ACMI operators' preference to lease mature aircraft presents a key opportunity for lessors and investors seeking to place aircraft coming off its 2nd/3rd lease.

IBA's Webinar ' Covid-19 and the Aviation Market, March 2020

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In response to Covid-19 and recent Oil Price Cuts, IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Peter Walter, Director - Asset Management, review the aviation market and share their thoughts on the impact, risk and exposure and how best to mitigate and protect asset values.   In the current climate, this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies across the market.   IBA's award-winning team discussed the following areas in detail:   Airline Failures, which airlines are under pressure? Implications for the leasing and finance community, including trading and ABS' Which aircraft types are under pressure? What is the impact from oil and interest rate changes in the short and long term? How will OEM deliveries be impacted? Will there be opportunities in the market?   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

What Is The Remarketing Potential Of Assets Under Flybe's Operation? March 2020

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Using IBA.iQ Fleets, at the time of Flybe's collapse, the carrier's fleet was comprised of a combination of De Havilland DHC8-400Q and Embraer E-Jet aircraft, totalling 68. The majority of the Flybe fleet consisted of DHC8 aircraft. With 54 such aircraft, Flybe was the largest active operator of the DHC8-400, accounting for almost 10% of the world in-service fleet. The parked and stored fleet of DHC8-400s has more than doubled as a result of the collapse of Flybe.

IBA's A330 Market Outlook, February 2020

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The result of 27 airlines ceasing or suspending operations in 2019 has been an increased supply of aircraft into the secondary market. The storage level of widebody commercial aircraft surpassed that of widebody and narrowbody aircraft combined since 2014 (excluding the Boeing Max in 2019). Additionally the number of parked and stored Airbus A330s, comprising both Airbus A330- 200 and A330-300 models, reached 161 in January 2020, representing a 13% storage level. As a result of this oversupply, lease rates and market values have been suppressed. However, the current low lease rates of A330s may open more opportunities for the low-cost long-haul carriers.

Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020

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Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.

How Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact The Aviation Industry? February 2020

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In early 2020, a previously unknown coronavirus struck Wuhan, capital of Hubei province and the most populated city in Central China with over 11 million inhabitants. Now known as Covid-19, the virus has spread rapidly across China and international travellers have taken it around the world. The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China to date disclosed that in China 70,640 people have been infected with 1,772 dead. The virus has yet to be contained and numbers are therefore still climbing.

Analysis of Air Italy and AtlasGlobal, February 2020

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Air Italy ceased operations on February 11th, following the shareholders' decision to liquidate the airline. Air Italy's cessation of operations appears to have been driven by Alisarda Group's (owned by the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development) desire to exit the investment given the carrier's deepening financial woes, with revenue trending lower and losses increasing. It appears Qatar Airways was prepared to inject more capital, however Alisarda Group wasn't prepared to commit further funds in light of "persistent negative market and industry conditions".

IBA Identifies Key Aviation Themes for 2020

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IBA Report: issued January 2020 by Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Operating Officer - Managing Director Aviation

IBA's Market Update Webinar, January 2020

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Our experts offer valuable analysis and insight on current trends, developments and key market indicators in this market update.   Some of the topics discussed include:   Macroeconomic factors and market effects Which assets will perform well in 2020 and which will face headwinds? Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020? Review of 2019 OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Values and Lease Rates   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Stuart Hatcher  

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

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Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

IBA's Thoughts on the Suspension of 737 MAX Production December 2019

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With the news of Boeing's decision to halt production of the 737 MAX from January, IBA's Stuart Hatcher, COO - MD Aviation, shares his thoughts from an Appraisers perspective.

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

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Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019

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Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.

Pickle Fork Remedial Work Could Cost $275,000 per aircraft, October 2019

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We are being asked lots of questions about the recent Airworthiness Directive affecting Boeing 737NG variants -600, 700, 800, 900 and 900ER and the potential impact from the remedial works if the pickle forks are found to be cracked. It's been reported that numerous aircraft have been grounded following inspections that revealed cracks on the pickle fork, these aircraft will remain on the ground until either the work is done or depending on the age and value, they may be considered for other mid-life options.  

How is the economic useful life of aircraft changing? IBA Speaks to Aircraft Commerce

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Written by Aircraft Commerce Issue no. 123 published May 2019   Technological developments generally diminish the economic appeal of older aircraft. Low cost of funds has enhanced the case for new aircraft. Are low financing costs sustainable beyond the short-term, and do new generation types have a big enough advantage over legacy aircraft? Depending on the point of view, there have been four or five generations of narrowbody and widebody jetliner aircraft. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have focused on reducing aircraft fuel burn and the maintenance burden for each generation to provide airline operators with a reduction in total operating costs, and cost per available seatmile (ASM).

IBA's Review of the Korean Aviation Market August 2019

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In this comprehensive report our analysts take a deep dive into the commercial aviation industry in South Korea, sharing our insight on market growth, fleet dynamics, Asiana Airline troubles and Korean investment in aviation.

What does the future hold for the A380? August 2019

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This year, Airbus announced that Airbus A380 production will cease in 2021. There are 12 Airbus A380-800 orders remaining to be fulfilled, of which 11 aircraft are for lead operator Emirates and one aircraft is for All Nippon Airways. IBA is aware that several operators have announced their future plans for the Airbus A380 and it appears that there will be a number of fleet exits over the next 3 to 10 years.

Passenger to Freighter Conversions

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

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- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA Highlights High Air Freighter Demand But Mixed Long Term Potential For Aircraft Types

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20th May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.

IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019

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Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.

IBA's Passenger to Freighter Webinar, May 2019

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IBA's Passenger to Freighter Webinar was designed specifically around the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session is a must for those considering converting fleet or looking at end of life options.   IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft and Phil Seymour, CEO, added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions vs parting out plus the need for scrutiny as the market for Cargo begins to change.   A copy of our Passenger to Freighter slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions please contact us.

What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?

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IBA Report: issued March 2019   Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.

IBA's Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019

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Freighter Conversions - capitalising on the resurgence in demand Freight volumes are continuing to trend on an upward trajectory and at a solid rate when compared to historical data. It should be noted however, that due to the inventory restocking cycle having concluded and manufacturing export orders remaining low, demand factors are lacking when compared to 2017. This paper looks at the current and future freighter market, production, routes into the market and takes a close look at a B737 conversion.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

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With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

IBA Foresee 1000 P2F Conversions Being Required In The Next 17 years

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According to IATA's March 2018 Freight Analysis report, global freight volumes slowed to a 22-month low, 1.7% year-on-year in March. This outcome represents the slowest pace of annual growth since the early part of 2016. The decline in growth can predominantly be attributed to the end of the restocking cycle which was one of the drivers behind the high growth figures. IATA have cautioned against reading too much into the most recent figures and expects growth of 4-5% overall for 2018.

IBA Contributes to an Aircargonews Article on Freighter Conversions, October 2017

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Passenger to freighter conversions will form a sizeable tranche of the ‘new' main deck metal entering the market over the next 20 years, according to airframers Boeing and Airbus.

Environment

What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?

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As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.

The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19

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ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.

IBA's Environment and Aircraft Finance Roundtable Lunch, 2nd March 2020

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The environment is a core issue for the aviation industry to manage and to ensure investors remain attracted to our industry to deliver sustainable growth. This roundtable session drew on the experience of key industry stakeholders to share current and future plans to address this challenge.

IBA's Aviation And The Environment Whitepaper, February 2020

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Aviation generates 2-3% of global CO₂ emissions and, if business continues as usual, is on course to produce double these emissions by 2037 when IATA predicts 8.2 billion annual air travellers. As a result, the industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its contribution to global warming and decarbonise operations in a bid to offset passenger growth. Sustainability and aviation's impact on the environment are significant issues facing the industry over the coming years, subjects which will be at the forefront of investment and business opportunities. This report explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry.

IBA's Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2020

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This podcast explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact Tim Boon.

A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019

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Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

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Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

IBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?

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Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing.   In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates.   Topics covered include:   What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks?  Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit?   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour   We’re nominated for Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the upcoming Aviation 100 Awards. If you would like to show your appreciation of our Valuation Services and Insight, vote IBA Group as the best appraisal service provider by clicking here to complete the short survey.

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

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The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

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Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Is capacity growth improving in Russia and China?

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Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

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The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA & LCI Podcast: The Helicopter Market and the Impact of Covid-19

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Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, and Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman of LCI, come together to discuss the helicopter market and the impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic.   With a combined experience of nearly 100 years in aviation, the pair discuss how Covid-19 has impacted the helicopter sector, drawing comparison to the fixed wing market.   If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback on the topics discussed please contact Phil Seymour.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

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Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

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When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

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Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Aircraft Values In Distress Says IBA As Covid Drives Down Demand

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- Airline commercial aircraft fleet drops $60 billion in value -   7th October, 2020: There is a growing divergence between aircraft base and market values as the global effects of the Covid-19 pandemic drive down demand, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

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IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

Asian Aviation In Conversation with Phil Seymour of IBA

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Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President, had the pleasure of joining Matthew Driskill from Asian Aviation for a discussion on the industry and a deep dive into the impact of the unprecedented global Covid-19 pandemic.   If you have any further questions or comments on the topics mentioned please contact Phil Seymour.

IBA's Masterclass: Asset Values Explained

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Aviation Asset Valuation is often a thoroughly debated and complicated subject - no matter where the industry is in the aviation cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented downturn in air traffic. As such, it is even more important to consider valuation definitions and the correct and valid use of them for pending transaction and for year-end audit purposes.   Designed for airlines, lessors, financiers alike, strengthen and build understanding of valuation methodology by joining IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the year. Combining our specialist valuation skills, with commercial and industry expertise, our Masterclass covers:   All you need to know about Base Value and Market Value and how they should be used - IFRS/IAS 36 Impairment of Assets Should impairment of the airline book value be considered and how market or base value should be applied International Standard on Auditing ISA 620   Voted Appraiser of the Year in 2012, 2018, 2020 and with over 30+ years of knowledgeable market experience, we have a deep understanding of the market. This session is a must for those looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

Over 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBA

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- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground -   18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

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To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions.   2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions.   Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas:   Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand   This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

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The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

IBA & KPMG Podcast: Aviation Asset Impairments and the Impact of Covid-19

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Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, and Killian Croke, Partner at KPMG Ireland, come together to discuss how the Covid-19 global pandemic will impact aviation asset impairments in the future.   This short podcast is a precursor to the IBA Asset Values Masterclass webinar we are running tomorrow (Thursday 24th September). Designed for airlines, lessors, and financiers, this complementary webinar is a must attend for anybody looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations. If you would like to attend, secure your place here.   If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback on the topics discussed please contact Phil Seymour.

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

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It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

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The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

Covid-19: Is the 3-month Airline Payment Deferral the End of the Story?

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The Covid-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global aviation industry, with some of the most severe ramifications impacting airlines and lessors. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects airline revenues to decline industry-wide by 50% in 2020, falling from USD 838 billion to USD 419 billion. With such significant financial strain, how can airlines and lessors work in partnership to pivot their approach and achieve a pragmatic solution?   Combining nearly a century of aviation expertise, Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President, and Andy Mansell, Partner at Split Rock Aviation, bring you an insightful and thought-provoking webcast that discusses:   How can airlines and lessors achieve a "win-win" situation - unprecedented times call for unprecedented solutions Restructuring - The need for a dynamic outlook Working in partnership - what happens beyond the 3-month payment deferral?   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Phil Seymour.

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

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In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

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There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

2020 MRO Spend Expected To Drop By More Than 50%

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- Spend set to be less than half of US $90bn forecast -- Engine shop visits and spend taking the biggest hit -- Need for innovation and flexible maintenance programs has never been greater -- Lower cost options such as PMA expected to be in demand -   4th August, 2020: With MRO industry revenues directly related to aircraft utilisation, 2020's total MRO spend will be less than half of the approximately $90bn forecasted, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry Webinar.  

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

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This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

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In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020.   The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak.   In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic.   In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021.   IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era.   In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years.   Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis.   While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog.   Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain.   Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog.   Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s.   In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future.     Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions.   In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June.     The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter.   Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers.   Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed.   The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020

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IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19.   This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight.   Topics covered included:   Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

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Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19

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ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.

IBA's Webinar: The New Curve; Aircraft Values Update

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In session 2 of The New Curve webinar series Navigating Covid-19, IBA's Company President, Phil Seymour, was joined by two of IBA's ISTAT qualified Senior Appraisers to share our latest update to aircraft values. Stuart Hatcher, COO - MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations reviewed and discussed key aircraft value changes.   Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel provided an industry update on recent changes to asset values.   This comprehensive and thought provoking session covered:   Airline failures Key narrow and widebody aircraft asset value changes post Covid-19   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

How have the dynamics of the leasing market changed since Covid-19?

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Pre-Covid, aircraft operating leasing was a very competitive space, capital having been flooding into the market over several years. Low interest rates drove increased interest in aircraft on operating leases as an investment class and we saw new players entering the market from Korea and, in particular, China. Many entities arose through joint ventures with existing European and North American lessors and via portfolio acquisitions.    

Slashed Revenues and Job Losses in the time of Covid-19: How are Governments Supporting the Aviation Industry?

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In this short article, IBA's advisory team uses current IATA data together with its own Covid-19 research to spotlight the pandemic's global influence on aviation industry jobs, revenues and capacity and details the extent of government support for some airlines.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; understanding, navigating and adapting in the wake of Covid-19

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Navigating Covid-19: In this short and punchy 60 minute session, Phil Seymour was joined by Stuart Hatcher, COO MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, to discuss key market indicators. Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel review OEM activity, Green shoots in the market and Leasing activity.   To benefit and support our clients and to help enable them to further understand how aviation stakeholders are responding, managing and succeeding in these unprecedented times, IBA are running a new series of fortnightly webinars focused on the aviation market.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour or Mike Yeomans

IBA Highlights High Air Freighter Demand But Mixed Long Term Potential For Aircraft Types

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20th May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines.   The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

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As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Freighter values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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Our senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on current and future asset performance for specific freighter aircraft. Following on the previous session where IBA presented insight on market performance for narrowbody and widebody commercial aircraft, our panel take a deeper dive looking at the different freighter categories and specific aircraft types. The panel share opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identify which asset types are more vulnerable, flag those that are more resilient and discuss future trends for cargo.Our senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on current and future asset performance for specific freighter aircraft. The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil will be joined by Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

Will Covid-19 force South Korea's oversaturated aviation market to consolidate? May 2020

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According to data published by IATA, the outbreak of Covid-19 could result in a 22% drop in passenger volume and a USD 4.4B, ~KRW (South Korean won) 5.4T loss, in passenger base revenue for the Korean air transport market this year. Further effects will inevitably be felt through the whole economy, potentially leading to the loss of around 160,000 jobs and a USD 9B (~KRW 11T) hit to GDP. IATA members have urged the Korean government to urgently extend direct financial support, loan guarantees, support for corporate bond issuance and tax relief to airlines.

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Narrowbody and widebody aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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Following on from last week's session where IBA presented their approach to valuations and lease rates, our panel take a deeper dive looking specifically at commonly traded aircraft types. Topics covered included; IBA's opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, which assets types are more vulnerable and a 30 minute Q&A session with our panel.   The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers, and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team also review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

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Combining IBA's historical data and experience of several downturns over the past 33 years, IBA's senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance.   The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an IBA ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman . Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst.   IBA present their approach to valuations and lease rates, share opinion on market performance in the near and long term and which assets types will be impacted most.Our panel of experts share their experience and views on values and lease rates.   This interactive session, What are my aviation assets worth, will among other things consider:   The approach taken by IBA's award winning appraisal team to valuing aircraft and engines in the near term Provide examples of the impact on widebody and narrowbody aircraft values in different scenarios including value in use, future base value, part out, distressed sales and lease encumbered valuations Why IBA is taking a shrewd approach and not cutting values without tangible evidence and market transactions, but taking into account evidence from previous downturns Your pain points and burning issues by allowing 30 mins for Q&A with our panel   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020

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According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

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ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

IBA & KPMG Webinar: How could the downturn in passenger demand impact finance modelling for ABS and other aircraft leasing models? April 2020

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Following the success of our recent webinar on the Aircraft ABS market, and in response to demand, Phil Seymour, Company President, from IBA Group and Brendan Crowley, Director, from KPMG Ireland teamed up to assess the likely impact of the current crisis on both narrowbody and widebody aircraft finance models.   This session is a must for must for leasing companies, aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on their portfolios, current leases and investments, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact.   In this session, our experts discuss and address some of the most burning questions through scenario analysis and asset by asset modelling.   Key discussion topics Phil and Brendan try to answer the following:   • How will possible early returns, rental holidays and repossessions impact on previously expected/modelled maintenance events and cashflow? • What risks could lead to an unexpected Event of Default if not monitored? • What are the outcomes and options available to various stakeholders? • Will retirement trends change in the near term? • What is the impact on current market values and lease rates now and in the longer term? • How will models need to change to reflect the current climate and minimise the impact?   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA Forecast Fall In Aircraft Rental And Maintenance Receipts As 60% Of ABS Fleet Grounded

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Slow aviation recovery in China points to longer term global fleet grounding   17th April, 2020: With almost two thirds of all aircraft financed by asset backed securities (ABS) now grounded due to the COVID-19 crisis, receipts of both aircraft rental and maintenance payments are likely to fall, according to leading aviation consultants IBA in a report today.

The current state of the Aircraft ABS market and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, April 2020

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IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation have combined forces to provide a review of the ABS market and the stress which travel restrictions from Covid-19 are placing on the Aviation ABS structures. This session is invaluable for all investors in aircraft and engine ABS structures.   Clay Smith from Split Rock Aviation and IBA's Phil Seymour, discuss which transactions may be most at risk and what investors should expect to see going forward.   This session is invaluable for all investors in aircraft and engine ABS structures.   Topics covered include:   An overview of the ABS market Structural issues of ABS deals, such as default triggers and cash traps, and how these impact the various tranches of investors Asset values and future maintenance events Airline strength, asset performance and servicer issues   The slide deck is also available to download If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour  

IBA and Split Rock forecast downgrades to Aircraft asset-backed securities

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Huge losses expected for airlines but ABS defaults unlikely Aircraft lease rates and values forecast to fall 2nd April, 2020: Downgrades are expected to the credit ratings of airlines' aircraft asset-backed securities (ABS) as they struggle to meet the challenges of COVID-19, according to leading aviation consultants IBA and Split Rock Aviation in a report today.

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

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The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020

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The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

How Will Covid-19 Impact The Aero Engine Market?

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IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar has been designed specifically around the business needs of investors, lessors, operators and financiers looking to explore the engine market and understand the impact from Covid-19. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community to navigate current challenges, identify future opportunities and mitigate risk.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, share their insight on the impact of Covid-19 on the engine market. Topics covered include; value performance in a crisis for narrowbody and widebody engines, the impact in the short, medium and long term and a review of the A330 engine market and the GE90 market.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: David Archer  

The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020

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Coronavirus (also referred to as Covid-19) has placed us in totally unprecedented territory; its effects are not localised or industry-specific but touch all aspects of our lives. Government interventions to protect businesses and society will be considerably more widespread than in previous downturn-triggering events, so what happens next is not necessarily what we would ‘normally' predict.

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Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

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Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovDiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

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Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

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Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

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Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

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Aviation & The Environment Dublin Sustainability Summit 2021

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IBA's Phil Seymour, Company President, will be speaking on the environment at 9:05 on both Monday 11th and Tuesday 12th   A team of IBA's expert analysts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   For more information about the event please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Tokyo 2021

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Stuart Hatcher, IBA's Chief Operating Officer - Managing Director Aviation, will be sharing his expertise on the ABS panel.   IBA's Peter Walter, Drector of Asset Management is pleased to have been invited to speak on the Asset management panel.   For more details on the event, please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting at this event please contact: Peter Walter

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Korea 2021

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IBA are pleased to have been invited to speak at multiple sessions throughout this conference, including Phil Seymour, CEO, who will be chairing day one of the event and speaking on Aviation & The Environment.   IBA's Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, is pleased to have been invited to speak on 'The Key Elements behind aircraft valuations for widebody aircraft' in Korea.   We will also be presenting our market update for the region on the main stage.   More details including timings to follow nearer the time.   For more details on the event, please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting at this event please contact: Mike Yeomans

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin 2021

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A team of IBA's expert analysts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   For more information about the event please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

IBA Announces Changes to its Senior Leadership Team

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London / Dublin / Tokyo, March 11th 2020: IBA Group is pleased to announce the appointment of Ian Beaumont to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of IBA Group effective from 11th March 2020. Phil Seymour, IBA's former CEO will continue to serve as Company President.

Award winning Aviation Consultancy IBA Group crowned ‘Appraiser of the Year' for the second time in three years at the Aviation 100 Awards in Dublin

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London / Dublin / Tokyo / Los Angeles - January 21st 2020: IBA Group, the awardwinning specialist aviation consultancy, has won the coveted Appraiser of the Year 2020at the Airline Economics Aviation 100 awards held last night. This is the second time inthree years that IBA has won this prestigious award, having previously won in 2018, andis testament to its best practice and strategic focus. The firm was voted for by industrypeers in the aviation banking, leasing and brokerage sectors in recognition of itsindependent valuation expertise and significant depth of experience.

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How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

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This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

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