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Home: IBA
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Aviation Intelligence

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Welcome to IBA's Aviation Intelligence Hub

Driven by InsightIQ, search IBA's articles, research and analysis that demonstrate our understanding of aviation finance and aircraft asset management

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Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

ArticlesSandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh ConditionsDiscover more

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors

ArticlesCarbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for LessorsDiscover more

There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees.   IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate.   1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC).   Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)   Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC   Read the full case study here   Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study:   Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR.   All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo

Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

ArticlesWill HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?Discover more

Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

IBA Named “Appraiser Of The Year” For The Third Time In Four Years

News & PR05MayIBA Named “Appraiser Of The Year” For The Third Time In Four YearsDiscover more

IBA, the leading independent aviation analytics and advisory company, has been crowned Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the prestigious Airline Economics Aviation 100 Awards. This is the third time in four years, and the fourth time to date, that IBA has secured the title, having previously won in 2012, 2018 and 2020.

The Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation Market

ArticlesThe Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation MarketDiscover more

Lewis Leslie, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Fleets and Values intelligence to explore the structure of the Japanese aviation market.   Executive Summary   19% of the Japanese in-service aircraft fleet remains either parked or stored. Aircraft utilisation by Japanese airlines has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels, in line with global utilisation trends. However, the Japanese aviation market is robust and well-placed for growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region in coming years. Large scale fleet renewal is expected within the next 10 years, but the rate of replacement is uncertain due to delays to the Boeing 737 MAX. Sale and Leasebacks accounted for the majority of secondary market transactions in 2020 through to March 2021, with nine recorded. The volume of JOLCO transactions fell last year but is expected to recover as demand for new aircraft returns.

IBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment Community

News & PR29AprIBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment CommunityDiscover more

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.

IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – Japan

WebinarsIBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – JapanDiscover more

IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, provide an overview of the Japanese aviation market. In this session IBA discuss trends across aviation finance in Japan and Asia Pac.   Using analysis from InsightIQ, join Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and John Duley, Business Development Manager - Asia, as they discuss the following topics:   Aircraft value performance  The changing face of Airline Fleets Possible Airline Failures OEM activity What are the changing trends in Retirements? Transactional Activity – Trading Sales and Capital Activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: John Duley  

IBA Outlines Carbon Reduction Strategies for Aircraft Lessors

News & PR26AprIBA Outlines Carbon Reduction Strategies for Aircraft LessorsDiscover more

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has set out a range of carbon reduction strategies that can be adopted by aircraft lessors.

Green And Ethical Credentials Touch Down In The Aviation Market; Delivering Your Green Financing Responsibilities

WebinarsGreen And Ethical Credentials Touch Down In The Aviation Market; Delivering Your Green Financing ResponsibilitiesDiscover more

Increasingly, aviation finance is being required to demonstrate ethical credentials and environmental concern. IBA’s advisory team discuss current and future policy requirements, initiatives and market developments to help navigate and understand future requirements to meet investor and stakeholder needs.   Using analysis and real world carbon emissions intelligence from InsightIQ, join Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, Ian Beaumont, CEO, Tim Boon, Aviation Analyst and ESG lead, and Michael Halaby, Halaby Aero Limited as they discuss the following topics:   What are the planned development initiatives from major OEMs? How are industry bodies regulating the industry, and what is the impact? What information and analysis will aviation finance need to demonstrate? What actions can companies take to reduce/offset emissions? Will SAF be a realistic option for airlines? What green credentials are investors looking for and why? Are green bonds a lifeline for the aviation industry?   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Tim Boon   The slide deck is available to download here.     The analysis and intelligence used in this webinar is from our new Carbon Emissions Calculator from InsightIQ. Tailored for airlines and aviation finance, InsightIQ CEC is an independent, unbiased calculator of emissions data based on real-world flights, aggregated to compare emissions by: aircraft, organisations, geographic distribution and portfolios.   See our Carbon Emissions Calculator in action

How Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?

Videos & PodcastsHow Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?Discover more

The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns?   Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA’s Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries.    The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou  

What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

ArticlesWhat is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?Discover more

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis.  In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

Covid-19: One year on, how well have ABS structures performed?

WebinarsCovid-19: One year on, how well have ABS structures performed?Discover more

As we approach the first anniversary of global travel restrictions and the extraordinary levels of grounded aircraft due to Covid-19, IBA in partnership with Split Rock Aviation, join forces to explore ABS vehicles. Together, the panel review ABS market performance, resilience and how the structures have and will need to adapt for the future.   Using InsightIQ data from IBA, join Phil Seymour and Clay Smith as they discuss:   How has the market performed? What are the mechanisms to provide cash for maintenance? How will vehicles deal with early returns? What is the impact from lease holidays and the impact on cash flows? How have ABS asset values changed? What is the market appetite for new transactions? How have structures adapted and prepared for the future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help.    Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: Phil Seymour

IBA Records Growing and Decreasing Aviation Emissions With First Of It's Kind Carbon Calculator

News & PR18MarA photo of a commercial aircraft flying over some green trees in a forest.Discover more

- ETS covers only 11% of commercial aviation emissions in 2020 - - Premium seating and older aircraft impact emissions efficiency -     Independent carbon emissions analysis for airlines and lessors, aircraft portfolios and regions is now easily accessible following the launch today of a Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC) by the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA. 

What Does Aercap’s Acquisition Of GECAS Mean For Aircraft Leasing?

ArticlesFlights circled on a world mapDiscover more

Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact for aircraft leasing following the announcement of AerCap’s intention to acquire GECAS.   AerCap’s announcement on 10th March 2021 of its intended acquisition of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) will, if approved, give it a 54% holding of a superpower lessor which owns and manages an in-service fleet approaching 2,100 aircraft, has an order backlog of more than 500 units and an aggregate customer base of nearly 300 operators. As announced by both parties, General Electric-owned GECAS will receive USD 24 bn in cash from AerCap along with USD 111.5 m newly issued AerCap shares and USD 1 bn AerCap notes/cash. With diverse geographical distributions and varying customer base and asset type exposures, what impact will a leasing giant in control of almost 14% of the entire fleet have on the aviation sector and rival lessors?

Aircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBA

News & PR12MarAircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBADiscover more

The aircraft engine market is showing early signs of recovery from the worst effects of the Covid-19, but is not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until the mid-2020s, according to leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

ArticlesA fleet of aeroplanesDiscover more

Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Engine Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Engine Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your engine assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning engine specialists for our new webinar series.   In the final of our three sessions, our panel of engine specialists focuses on the engine market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   What are the latest trends in the engine market? Is market sentiment changing? How are Narrowbody and Widebody engine values performing? Are lease rates softening? How are shop visit forecasts changing - IBA's latest view?   The slide deck is available to download here.   Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help.    Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: David Archer

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

News & PR26FebStationary Freighter FleetDiscover more

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

Will The Recent Pratt & Witney 4000-112 Engine Failure Have A Lasting Impact On Storage Levels For Older Pratt & Whitney-Powered 777 Aircraft Fleet?

ArticlesPassengers onboarding aircraftDiscover more

In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA’s analyst Geoffroy Robin uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.  

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Freighter values in 2021

WebinarsThe engine of an aircraftDiscover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your freighter assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series.   In the second of three sessions, our ISTAT qualified appraiser panel will focus on the freighter market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's asset values and lease rates moved for freighter aircraft? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How strong is conversion demand across the different programmes? What feedstock is available and how competitive is the pricing? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jonathan McDonald

China’s Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

ArticlesDomestic plane travelling over new yearDiscover more

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

IBA Sees Least Dilution In New Gen Aircraft Values With A320neo Outpacing 737 Max

News & PR12FebAeroplane flying over cityDiscover more

New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.  

IBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your aircraft assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series, 'Rising To The Challenge of Covid-19'.   The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's aircraft values and lease rates moved across the asset classes- narrowbody, widebody and turboprops? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What are the justifications for IBA's Base Value changes? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans

IBA’s Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2021

Videos & PodcastsIBA’s Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2021Discover more

Despite its best efforts, the Covid-19 pandemic failed to deflect all stakeholder interest within the aviation industry away from environmental and sustainability concerns. In January 2020 IBA published its well-received ‘Aviation and the Environment’ report and in response to market demand, we have just released our 2021 version. Download your copy here   In this short podcast, IBA’s Phil Seymour (President & Head of Advisory) and Tim Boon (Aviation Analyst and ESG Specialist) discuss current regulation and compliance information, emerging green finance initiatives including sustainability loans and OEM investment and research activity. Additionally, the pair share details of IBA’s latest initiative, our InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator. Available in the coming weeks, this new module will support the market with compliance, stakeholder engagement, green financing and efficiency by measuring carbon emissions across all commercial aircraft. Request more information here   We hope you find this podcast insightful and relevant to your business. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Tim Boon

Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism

ArticlesKey Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of OptimismDiscover more

In our 2021 forecast for the year ahead, Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer at IBA, shares IBA’s opinion on traffic, transactions, asset values and airline failures in 2021. ‘Now that 2020 is behind us, we can begin to look forward to 2021 and beyond; we can consider whether there are signals we can be optimistic about. A long, slow vaccination process is underway but, although this is a positive development, when do we realistically foresee the current market’s harsh conditions will start to ease?’

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

ArticlesWhat Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?Discover more

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

IBA Forecasts Partial Aviation Recovery In 2021 With Major Regional Variations

News & PR19JanIBA Forecasts Partial Aviation Recovery In 2021 With Major Regional VariationsDiscover more

- Significant changes in OEM order and delivery shares, storage levels, market levels and lease rates -   The advent and rollout of vaccines will start to drive a partial recovery in the aviation sector in 2021, but with significant variance between global regions, according to new data from IBA.  

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

ArticlesUS Airlines Record Strong Increase In CapacityDiscover more

Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.  

IBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021Discover more

Significant uncertainty will remain in 2021, but the global aviation industry remains agile and resilient to weather future challenges in 2021 and beyond.   Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss, and predict trends across aviation finance for the year ahead.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date market insight.   Topics covered include: IBA’s aircraft values The changing face of airline fleets  Possible airline failures The road to recovery OEM activity What are the changing trends in retirements? Transactional activity Trading sales and capital activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments, please contact Mike Yeomans.  

Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta

ArticlesAircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and DeltaDiscover more

Using fleet data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, it’s possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.

IBA Forecasts Long Term Engine Value Resilience

News & PR17DecIBA Forecasts Long Term Engine Value ResilienceDiscover more

17th December, 2020 – The long term value of commercial aircraft engines is set to withstand the worst effects of Covid-19, according to new data from IBA.   In a recent webinar entitled How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery, the leading aviation data and advisory company outlined how engines are set to show long term value retention.

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

ArticlesWhat Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?Discover more

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family. 

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

ArticlesIs There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?Discover more

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

IBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery

WebinarsIBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To RecoveryDiscover more

The positive news of several Covid-19 vaccines and various testing regimes have spread optimism that travel restrictions will soon ease, passenger confidence will return and the economic impact dissipates quickly in 2021. Whilst we hope for all of these things, it’s likely there will be further challenges ahead and there will certainly be a variety of recovery patterns across the globe.   Join speakers from IBA for a review of how to effectively manage engine assets to build a resilient and cash preserving strategy that supports the road to recovery.   Topic discussed include:   Shop visit forecasts Differing scenarios How resilient is the engine market? The importance of spare engine ratios Do maintenance reserves need to be reviewed? Engine SV options Material use and build standards? What is the trade-off between cash preservation v time on wing Impairments – IFRS16 and 36 issues What will fuel aviation’s green future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Mal Cowley or David Archer

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?

ArticlesHow Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?Discover more

The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.  

IBA’s Aviation Podcast: Glimmers of Positivity for the Engine Market

Videos & PodcastsIBA’s Aviation Podcast: Glimmers of Positivity for the Engine MarketDiscover more

Following on from our Engine Market Update webinar in September, IBA’s Phil Seymour, President & Head of Advisory, and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, bring you an insightful and thought-provoking podcast that reviews the current status of the aero engine market.   It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the engine sector. However, positive news about the vaccines, stored aircraft returning to service and utilisation increasing are all indicators that the outlook for the engine market is looking much less bleak than it was a few months ago.   Listen to Phil and David as they come together to provide a top-level overview on key topics such as engine shop visit capacity vs demand, difficulties faced by the engine OEMs and the performance of engine values.   If you have any further questions, or comments please contact David Archer   Looking for more information? Our next engine webinar is scheduled for December 10th, where our award-winning team will take a deeper dive into the technical aspects of engine shop visits and cost management using data from our intelligence platform InsightIQ. Register for free here.  

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

ArticlesWill Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?Discover more

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

ArticlesCovid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback ActivityDiscover more

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

IBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?Discover more

Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing.   In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates.   Topics covered include:   What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks?  Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

ArticlesHigh Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021Discover more

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?

ArticlesWill a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?Discover more

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

ArticlesFailure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?Discover more

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?

ArticlesIs Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?Discover more

Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

ArticlesBoeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.Discover more

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

News & PR02NovIBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQDiscover more

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020Discover more

The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

ArticlesPower by the Hour Lease RatesDiscover more

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

ArticlesMan looking at engineDiscover more

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

ArticlesWing of plane mid flightDiscover more

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

ArticlesWill Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?Discover more

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Aftermarket & Parts

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

ArticlesIs There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?Discover more

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

ArticlesHow Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?Discover more

This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Valuations

Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

ArticlesWill HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?Discover more

Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

ArticlesAirport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport SlotsDiscover more

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

IBA Named “Appraiser Of The Year” For The Third Time In Four Years

News & PR05MayIBA Named “Appraiser Of The Year” For The Third Time In Four YearsDiscover more

IBA, the leading independent aviation analytics and advisory company, has been crowned Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the prestigious Airline Economics Aviation 100 Awards. This is the third time in four years, and the fourth time to date, that IBA has secured the title, having previously won in 2012, 2018 and 2020.

IBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment Community

News & PR29AprIBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment CommunityDiscover more

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.

Covid-19: One year on, how well have ABS structures performed?

WebinarsCovid-19: One year on, how well have ABS structures performed?Discover more

As we approach the first anniversary of global travel restrictions and the extraordinary levels of grounded aircraft due to Covid-19, IBA in partnership with Split Rock Aviation, join forces to explore ABS vehicles. Together, the panel review ABS market performance, resilience and how the structures have and will need to adapt for the future.   Using InsightIQ data from IBA, join Phil Seymour and Clay Smith as they discuss:   How has the market performed? What are the mechanisms to provide cash for maintenance? How will vehicles deal with early returns? What is the impact from lease holidays and the impact on cash flows? How have ABS asset values changed? What is the market appetite for new transactions? How have structures adapted and prepared for the future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help.    Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: Phil Seymour

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Engine Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Engine Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your engine assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning engine specialists for our new webinar series.   In the final of our three sessions, our panel of engine specialists focuses on the engine market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   What are the latest trends in the engine market? Is market sentiment changing? How are Narrowbody and Widebody engine values performing? Are lease rates softening? How are shop visit forecasts changing - IBA's latest view?   The slide deck is available to download here.   Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help.    Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: David Archer

IBA Sees Least Dilution In New Gen Aircraft Values With A320neo Outpacing 737 Max

News & PR12FebAeroplane flying over cityDiscover more

New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.  

IBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your aircraft assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series, 'Rising To The Challenge of Covid-19'.   The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's aircraft values and lease rates moved across the asset classes- narrowbody, widebody and turboprops? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What are the justifications for IBA's Base Value changes? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans

Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism

ArticlesKey Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of OptimismDiscover more

In our 2021 forecast for the year ahead, Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer at IBA, shares IBA’s opinion on traffic, transactions, asset values and airline failures in 2021. ‘Now that 2020 is behind us, we can begin to look forward to 2021 and beyond; we can consider whether there are signals we can be optimistic about. A long, slow vaccination process is underway but, although this is a positive development, when do we realistically foresee the current market’s harsh conditions will start to ease?’

IBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021Discover more

Significant uncertainty will remain in 2021, but the global aviation industry remains agile and resilient to weather future challenges in 2021 and beyond.   Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss, and predict trends across aviation finance for the year ahead.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date market insight.   Topics covered include: IBA’s aircraft values The changing face of airline fleets  Possible airline failures The road to recovery OEM activity What are the changing trends in retirements? Transactional activity Trading sales and capital activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments, please contact Mike Yeomans.  

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

ArticlesHow Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?Discover more

This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

ArticlesWill Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?Discover more

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

ArticlesCovid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback ActivityDiscover more

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

ArticlesBoeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.Discover more

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovAviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBADiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

News & PR02NovIBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQDiscover more

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020Discover more

The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA Appointed ARJ21 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

News & PR16OctIBA Appointed ARJ21 Programme Appraiser By COMACDiscover more

16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market UpdateDiscover more

IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

IBA's Masterclass: Asset Values Explained

WebinarsIBA's Masterclass: Asset Values ExplainedDiscover more

Aviation Asset Valuation is often a thoroughly debated and complicated subject - no matter where the industry is in the aviation cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented downturn in air traffic. As such, it is even more important to consider valuation definitions and the correct and valid use of them for pending transaction and for year-end audit purposes.   Designed for airlines, lessors, financiers alike, strengthen and build understanding of valuation methodology by joining IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the year. Combining our specialist valuation skills, with commercial and industry expertise, our Masterclass covers:   All you need to know about Base Value and Market Value and how they should be used - IFRS/IAS 36 Impairment of Assets Should impairment of the airline book value be considered and how market or base value should be applied International Standard on Auditing ISA 620   Voted Appraiser of the Year in 2012, 2018, 2020 and with over 30+ years of knowledgeable market experience, we have a deep understanding of the market. This session is a must for those looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket IndustryDiscover more

This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020

WebinarsIBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020Discover more

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19.   This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight.   Topics covered included:   Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

IBA Sees Widespread Covid Aircraft Value Drop, but Recovery Expected for Certain Types

News & PR08JulIBA Sees Widespread Covid Aircraft Value Drop, but Recovery Expected for Certain TypesDiscover more

8th July, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has adjusted its market values for all commercial passenger aircraft types across the widebody, narrowbody, regional jet and turboprop categories to reflect the impact of Covid-19.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; understanding, navigating and adapting in the wake of Covid-19

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The New Curve; understanding, navigating and adapting in the wake of Covid-19Discover more

Navigating Covid-19: In this short and punchy 60 minute session, Phil Seymour was joined by Stuart Hatcher, COO MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, to discuss key market indicators. Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel review OEM activity, Green shoots in the market and Leasing activity.   To benefit and support our clients and to help enable them to further understand how aviation stakeholders are responding, managing and succeeding in these unprecedented times, IBA are running a new series of fortnightly webinars focused on the aviation market.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour or Mike Yeomans

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsIBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?Discover more

The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines.   The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Narrowbody and widebody aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Narrowbody and widebody aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?Discover more

Following on from last week's session where IBA presented their approach to valuations and lease rates, our panel take a deeper dive looking specifically at commonly traded aircraft types. Topics covered included; IBA's opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, which assets types are more vulnerable and a 30 minute Q&A session with our panel.   The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers, and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team also review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

ArticlesWhat Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020Discover more

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

ArticlesWhich airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020Discover more

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

IBA BizJet Valuations, January 2020

ArticlesIBA BizJet Valuations, January 2020Discover more

Buying aircraft, whether private or commercial, can be a complicated, time-consuming process with potential for plenty of twists, turns, pitfalls and surprises along the way. Thorough due diligence is crucial before purchasing decisions are made; the values involved mean errors can cost millions of dollars.

What Is A Landing Slot And How Much Is One Worth? December 2019

ArticlesWhat Is A Landing Slot And How Much Is One Worth? December 2019Discover more

IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations, having completed a variety of assignments at airports including LHR and LGW. These valuations have been for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots.

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

ArticlesIBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019Discover more

How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots.   David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast.   If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

ArticlesIBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019Discover more

IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

How Would Aircraft Appraisers Value Concorde Today? March 2019

ArticlesHow Would Aircraft Appraisers Value Concorde Today? March 2019Discover more

With the recent 50th anniversary of the Concorde's maiden flight, IBA's Phil Seymour, CEO, discusses how aircraft appraisers would value Concorde today.

Impairment of Asset Values Set to Become a Real Issue

ArticlesImpairment of Asset Values Set to Become a Real IssueDiscover more

After a long period of stability and growth in the aviation industry the prospect of asset impairment is starting to rear its head, according to Phil Seymour, the CEO of IBA.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

ArticlesWhy Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018Discover more

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

ArticlesIBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018Discover more

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

Due Diligence - What Is Your Deal Really Worth? April 2018

ArticlesDue Diligence - What Is Your Deal Really Worth? April 2018Discover more

There was a great deal of activity concerning aircraft lease portfolios during the first few months of 2018. IBA has been advising various investors, with a broad range of investment objectives, with surprising results. Whereas typically investors are seeking at least a 7% return, in some deals the returns were much leaner than anticipated, in others break-even was the optimistic outcome. Both market share and an eagerness to develop a relationship with a particular operator were highlighted as objectives in these cases. With such lean returns, one theme is common to all; robust due diligence (DD) ahead of purchase and a focus on expert ongoing servicing is essential to maximise the opportunity to realise target returns.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

ArticlesIBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017Discover more

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017

ArticlesChanging composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017Discover more

Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.

IBA & KPMG Seminar Slides: Depreciation, Residual Values and Useful Economic Lives, May 2017

ArticlesIBA & KPMG Seminar Slides: Depreciation, Residual Values and Useful Economic Lives, May 2017Discover more

In this session IBA partners with KPMG to present an accounting and commercial update, discussing depreciation, residual values and useful economic lives.

Improving Valuations, January 2017

ArticlesImproving Valuations, January 2017Discover more

Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy for Avolon, published a challenging thought paper last year assessing aircraft appraisers. I want to respond to Dick's thoughts wearing two hats - as the CEO of IBA, a leading aviation consultancy with some 30 years' appraisal experience and data, and as the former chairman of the ISTAT International Appraisers' Program. The timing is right for three reasons - Dick makes many excellent points that need to be kept front of mind as our industry develops; 2017 will likely be the most volatile market for years making appraisal opinion even more important; and Dick and I will debate our respective positions at the AFJ conference in Dublin and this serves as a prelude.

Repossessions

IBA's Masterclass Webinar: Managing and Preparing for Defaults and Repossessions

WebinarsIBA's Masterclass Webinar: Managing and Preparing for Defaults and RepossessionsDiscover more

In this hour long session, the panel offered guidance and advice to help financiers prepare for unscheduled returns and defaults, outlined how to secure aircraft and engines whilst maintaining asset value and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations.   Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, and Oliver Hipperson, Partner at Clifford Chance, were joined by a panel of experts to share and provide insight, best practise and guidance to the finance community on managing unscheduled early redeliveries.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Peter Walter

The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?

ArticlesThe Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?Discover more

A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

ArticlesCovid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020Discover more

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

IBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020

WebinarsIBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020Discover more

IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values.   Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19.   IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed.   In this short and punchy ‘how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA's Repossession and Risk Webinar

WebinarsIBA's Repossession and Risk WebinarDiscover more

In response to the unprecedented number of airline bankruptcies and defaults over the first half of 2019, IBA hosted a Risk and Repossession Webinar. Designed around the needs of Lessors, Financiers and Investors, our team of experts looked at credit risk, current levels of stress in the market, offered guidance on approaching defaults and shared our first hand experiences in this area.   Topics included:   Risk & repossessions - what are we seeing in the market place? Keeping up to date with credit risk Repossession best practise   In this session Peter Walter, IBA's Director - Asset Management and Guljar Lehri, Head of Aircraft Transactions and Technical Marketing share their valuable sector expertise.   A copy of our Repossession and Risk slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions, please contact: Peter Walter

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

ArticlesIBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018Discover more

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

Engines

Aviation Week Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance 2021

Events18MayCity of London Birdseye viewDiscover more

The Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance conference will now be virtual due to Covid restrictions on numbers.   Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, will be speaking on a 'Used serviceable materials (USM)' panel discussion at 16:10 on Tuesday 18th May, topics covered include:   What we can expect to see in the parts market over the next few years? Which models could we see a surge in parts on the market for? What pricing strategies are brokers prioritising? In the next few years, as capital increases for operators, will we see more engines parted out? How will running green-time engines affect the market?   For more details on the event, please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting at this event please contact: David Archer.

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

ArticlesSandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh ConditionsDiscover more

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Aircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBA

News & PR12MarAircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBADiscover more

The aircraft engine market is showing early signs of recovery from the worst effects of the Covid-19, but is not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until the mid-2020s, according to leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Engine Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Engine Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your engine assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning engine specialists for our new webinar series.   In the final of our three sessions, our panel of engine specialists focuses on the engine market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   What are the latest trends in the engine market? Is market sentiment changing? How are Narrowbody and Widebody engine values performing? Are lease rates softening? How are shop visit forecasts changing - IBA's latest view?   The slide deck is available to download here.   Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help.    Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: David Archer

Will The Recent Pratt & Witney 4000-112 Engine Failure Have A Lasting Impact On Storage Levels For Older Pratt & Whitney-Powered 777 Aircraft Fleet?

ArticlesPassengers onboarding aircraftDiscover more

In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA’s analyst Geoffroy Robin uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.  

IBA Forecasts Long Term Engine Value Resilience

News & PR17DecIBA Forecasts Long Term Engine Value ResilienceDiscover more

17th December, 2020 – The long term value of commercial aircraft engines is set to withstand the worst effects of Covid-19, according to new data from IBA.   In a recent webinar entitled How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery, the leading aviation data and advisory company outlined how engines are set to show long term value retention.

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

ArticlesIs There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?Discover more

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

IBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery

WebinarsIBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To RecoveryDiscover more

The positive news of several Covid-19 vaccines and various testing regimes have spread optimism that travel restrictions will soon ease, passenger confidence will return and the economic impact dissipates quickly in 2021. Whilst we hope for all of these things, it’s likely there will be further challenges ahead and there will certainly be a variety of recovery patterns across the globe.   Join speakers from IBA for a review of how to effectively manage engine assets to build a resilient and cash preserving strategy that supports the road to recovery.   Topic discussed include:   Shop visit forecasts Differing scenarios How resilient is the engine market? The importance of spare engine ratios Do maintenance reserves need to be reviewed? Engine SV options Material use and build standards? What is the trade-off between cash preservation v time on wing Impairments – IFRS16 and 36 issues What will fuel aviation’s green future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Mal Cowley or David Archer

Engine Shop Visit Demand

ArticlesMan looking at engineDiscover more

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

ArticlesWing of plane mid flightDiscover more

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Demand Collapse Driving Down Engine Values And MRO Demand Says IBA

News & PR12OctDemand Collapse Driving Down Engine Values And MRO Demand Says IBADiscover more

- Widebody engine values drop by up to 50% -   12th October 2020: The collapse in demand for air travel caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a significant decline in engine values, with a knock on effect on engine MRO, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market UpdateDiscover more

IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket IndustryDiscover more

This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

How Will Covid-19 Impact The Aero Engine Market?

WebinarsHow Will Covid-19 Impact The Aero Engine Market?Discover more

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar has been designed specifically around the business needs of investors, lessors, operators and financiers looking to explore the engine market and understand the impact from Covid-19. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community to navigate current challenges, identify future opportunities and mitigate risk.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, share their insight on the impact of Covid-19 on the engine market. Topics covered include; value performance in a crisis for narrowbody and widebody engines, the impact in the short, medium and long term and a review of the A330 engine market and the GE90 market.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: David Archer  

What is the Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings on the LEAP-1B? November 2019

ArticlesWhat is the Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings on the LEAP-1B? November 2019Discover more

For CFMI, it would appear that the impact of the 737 MAX grounding has not been detrimental to the LEAP-1B. There remains a strong market outlook for this engine and looking at the Base Value, Half Life, it is performing well and is on par with competing engines in the market. As illustrated in the chart below, there has been no impact on values.

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

ArticlesIBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019Discover more

How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots.   David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast.   If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

IBA Identifies A New Trend In Mature Aircraft Asset Management, October 2019

ArticlesIBA Identifies A New Trend In Mature Aircraft Asset Management, October 2019Discover more

  Using the valuation tool InsightIQ, it considers the lease rate comparison of several A320 vintages and their respective engines.   London/Dublin/Tokyo - October 3rd 2019: IBA, the independent aviation advisory, valuation and consulting firm has identified a growing trend in mature aircraft management where the leasing of core engine assets is managed separately to the aircraft as a whole. This is becoming increasingly evident based upon the strengths of the CFM-56-5/7B and V2500-A5 engines within the A320 and 737NG fleets.

Is There An Impact On The Engine Market From The 737 MAX Groundings?

ArticlesIs There An Impact On The Engine Market From The 737 MAX Groundings?Discover more

IBA Report by David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst: issued September 2019   The grounding of the 737 MAX fleet has been one of the most widely discussed aviation events of recent history. Following two tragic accidents, the 737 MAX fleet remains grounded until the world's aviation authorities deem it fit for service. Speculation has inevitably turned to the impact on the market and the longer term ramifications for both the aircraft and the engines.

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

ArticlesIBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019Discover more

IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

ArticlesWhat to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018Discover more

Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

Will The Engine Lease Market Be Able To Meet Critical Demand For Spare Engines?

ArticlesWill The Engine Lease Market Be Able To Meet Critical Demand For Spare Engines?Discover more

Our engine analysts have been investigating recent concerns of spare engine and parts shortages for three commonly traded engines, the V2500-A5, CFM56-7B and -5B. Our findings suggest that the engine lease market will not be able to support the 25-35% increase in shop visit rates forecast for CFM56-7B and -5B engines and continuing strong demand for V2500's in the period 2019-2024. There is currently very limited availability of spares and unless more spare engines are generated by retirements and aircraft teardowns, or airline held spare stock absorbs some of the demand, IBA expect engine inductions and longer TATs will create a log jam further intensified by the impact of compound shop visits i.e. first run, second run and third run overlapping.

Evolution of Technology in the Engine Market, April 2018

ArticlesEvolution of Technology in the Engine Market, April 2018Discover more

Rather than invest large sums of money into the development of clean-sheet airframe designs, in recent years OEMs have elected to redesign, improve and re-engine already successful airframes for the next generation of aircraft. In many of these cases, the engine accounts for a significant proportion of the efficiency savings.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

ArticlesIBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017Discover more

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

ArticlesHow do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017Discover more

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

IBA talk 777 and A380 engines in Aircraft Commerce magazine, May 2017

ArticlesIBA talk 777 and A380 engines in Aircraft Commerce magazine, May 2017Discover more

The 777 has long been established in its market of medium- and long-haul routes, as the world's largest twin engine commercial aircraft. The 777 entered service in 1995 via the 777-200, and now comprises five passenger series: the 777-200, -200ER, -200LR, -300, and -300ER. There is also a freighter version, the 777-200F. The 777 seats 310-390 passengers, depending on the series, and class configuration and layout of passenger accommodations (LOPA).

Regional & Narrowbody Engines, February 2017

ArticlesRegional & Narrowbody Engines, February 2017Discover more

The fleet of in-service, passenger configured regional and narrowbody aircraft has increased by one-third over the past 10 years. This growing fleet will require used spare engines for various purposes, including the provision of cover for maintenance shop visits. Aircraft Commerce has analysed the regional and narrowbody used engine market to provide a summary of demand, value and lease rate trends.

Helicopters

IBA's Helicopter Values Guide 2020

ArticlesIBA's Helicopter Values Guide 2020Discover more

Unlike the fixed wing market, helicopter utilisation appears to have stabilised and returned to near normal levels in some sectors. As the pandemic took hold earlier this year, we saw demand for helicopters impacted by travel restrictions preventing workers reaching offshore and wind facilities, and also by extremely low oil pricing.   With restrictions easing mid-year, we have subsequently seen utilisation rates strengthening as delayed maintenance of wind turbines resumed and workers returning to offshore sites. With demand for medical air transportation also rising, we are seeing strong utilisations of helicopters across HEMS as a result.   In summary, utilisation has stabilised, orders and transactions have reduced but as fewer units have come on the market, the value of limited stock has held better than expected.   To review values of key commercial helicopters, download a copy of IBA’s Helicopter Values Guide 2020 using the link below. Helicopter Values Guide 2020

IBA's Helicopter Market Update, October 2020

WebinarsIBA's Helicopter Market Update, October 2020Discover more

Our helicopter team are regularly being asked challenging questions about the helicopter market and the impact of Covid-19. In this short market review, Alastair Fallon (IBA's Helicopter Aviation Analyst) shares our latest insight on:   • The composition of the global commercial helicopter fleet - leased Vs owned • Helicopter deliveries - actual and forecast • Helicopter deployment • Current Market Values for a selection of key helicopter types • Future developments   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Alastair Fallon    

How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020

ArticlesHow is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020Discover more

IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

ArticlesWill Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?Discover more

The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

IBA's 2019 Helicopter Values Guide

ArticlesIBA's 2019 Helicopter Values GuideDiscover more

It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.

IBA's Global Helicopter Market Update May 2019

ArticlesIBA's Global Helicopter Market Update May 2019Discover more

The recent announcement of Bristow filing for CH11 once again illustrates the challenges faced by those investing and operating in the Helicopter Market. Despite the challenges, there are some positive signs in the market and low levels of growth are forecast for the coming years - up to 4%, with Asia providing some new opportunities.

How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?

ArticlesHow Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?Discover more

With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.

IBA's Helicopter Market Update August 2019

WebinarsIBA's Helicopter Market Update August 2019Discover more

It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.   Our Helicopter team are regularly asked challenging questions about the future of the market. In this short market review, IBA's Owen Geach shares our latest insight on:#   Turbine fleet - lease/owned dynamics Helicopter trends OEM market share Deliveries - actual/forecast Financing helicopters   The slide deck is also available to download.   If you have any further questions please contact: Owen Geach

Transitions

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

WebinarsIBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020Discover more

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions.   2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions.   Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas:   Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand   This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

ArticlesEconomic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?Discover more

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

ArticlesCovid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020Discover more

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020

ArticlesAircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020Discover more

Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

ArticlesRevisiting Redeliveries in 2019Discover more

Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

ArticlesWhy Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018Discover more

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

How Far Away Is The Tipping Point For The A320ceo/Neo And B737NG/MAX Transition? June 2018

ArticlesHow Far Away Is The Tipping Point For The A320ceo/Neo And B737NG/MAX Transition? June 2018Discover more

IBA's recent Market Update analysis covered a range of market dynamics including our thoughts on the Farnborough Airshow orders, the New Mid-Sized Aircraft and operator profitability. If you missed it, the materials can be accessed here.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

ArticlesIBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018Discover more

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

ArticlesHow do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017Discover more

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

Best industry practice for aircraft lease transitions in Aircraft Commerce, March 2017

ArticlesBest industry practice for aircraft lease transitions in Aircraft Commerce, March 2017Discover more

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says that about 40% of the global commercial aircraft fleet is under operating lease, and that trends indicate this percentage will increase. It emphasises the challenges that can arise when the lessee and lessor look at a lease from different perspectives.

Aircraft Management

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

ArticlesAirport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport SlotsDiscover more

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

ArticlesAviation Market AnalysisDiscover more

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

ArticlesWhat Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?Discover more

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

ArticlesPower by the Hour Lease RatesDiscover more

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

WebinarsIBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020Discover more

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions.   2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions.   Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas:   Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand   This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

ArticlesPreparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)Discover more

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

ArticlesPreparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)Discover more

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

2020 MRO Spend Expected To Drop By More Than 50%

News & PR04Aug2020 MRO Spend Expected To Drop By More Than 50%Discover more

- Spend set to be less than half of US $90bn forecast -- Engine shop visits and spend taking the biggest hit -- Need for innovation and flexible maintenance programs has never been greater -- Lower cost options such as PMA expected to be in demand -   4th August, 2020: With MRO industry revenues directly related to aircraft utilisation, 2020's total MRO spend will be less than half of the approximately $90bn forecasted, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry Webinar.  

Over 800 Aircraft To Exit Airline Fleets Says IBA

News & PR23JulOver 800 Aircraft To Exit Airline Fleets Says IBADiscover more

- Aircraft deliveries less than 50% of 2019 levels -- Almost 500 narrowbody cancellations - 90% for Boeing 737 MAX -   23 July, 2020: Over 800 aircraft have been identified as subject to exit from their current airline fleets, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Mid-Year Market Update.

IBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020

WebinarsIBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020Discover more

IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values.   Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19.   IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed.   In this short and punchy ‘how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories.   The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020

ArticlesHave operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020Discover more

Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

ArticlesRevisiting Redeliveries in 2019Discover more

Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

ArticlesWhy Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018Discover more

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

ArticlesIBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018Discover more

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

Maintenance Reserves - a $24bn business, January 2019

ArticlesMaintenance Reserves - a $24bn business, January 2019Discover more

The maintenance reserves industry is estimated to be worth $24bn per annum. Optimising your position to reduce financial exposure is a must for airlines and their stakeholders when selecting aircraft types, agreeing maintenance reserves, forecasting and modelling maintenance events and cash flow.   Download IBA's quick guide for steps to consider before, during and at the end of a lease that will improve your cash flow and reduce exposure.

Lease Rates

IBA Sees Least Dilution In New Gen Aircraft Values With A320neo Outpacing 737 Max

News & PR12FebAeroplane flying over cityDiscover more

New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.  

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovAviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBADiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

News & PR02NovIBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQDiscover more

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

ArticlesPower by the Hour Lease RatesDiscover more

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

IBA Appointed ARJ21 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

News & PR16OctIBA Appointed ARJ21 Programme Appraiser By COMACDiscover more

16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

Over 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBA

News & PR18SepOver 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBADiscover more

- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground -   18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.

Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates

ArticlesDepressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease RatesDiscover more

Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates.   As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.

IBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market Supply

News & PR28MayIBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market SupplyDiscover more

29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsIBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?Discover more

The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions.   Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines.   The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.

ArticlesHistorical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.Discover more

As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.

Operating Leases - the hidden costs and pitfalls to avoid. What to do? November 2019

ArticlesOperating Leases - the hidden costs and pitfalls to avoid. What to do? November 2019Discover more

In this joint session between IBA's Peter Walter and Guljar Lehri and IATA's DeeDee Doke and Chris Markou, we look at how airlines can manage their operating leases to avoid millions of dollars of unwanted and hidden cost.

IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019

ArticlesIBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019Discover more

The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

ArticlesHistorical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019Discover more

Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?

ArticlesHow Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?Discover more

The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time.   Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

ArticlesWhat to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018Discover more

Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

ArticlesIBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018Discover more

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

ArticlesIBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017Discover more

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017

ArticlesChanging composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017Discover more

Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.

Market Analysis

IBA & KPMG's Webinar: State of the Industry Debate; Will the Northern Hemisphere be clear for take off this summer?

Events26MayIBA & KPMG's Webinar: State of the Industry Debate; Will the Northern Hemisphere be clear for take off this summer?Discover more

IBA in partnership with KPMG, join forces to explore key market indicators for the aviation industry. Together, the panel will discuss global market performance and the outlook for the coming months. Will the traditionally busy Northern Hemisphere summer deliver for the industry? Register here   Using InsightIQ aviation intelligence, join Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans from IBA, and Kieran O'Brien from KPMG, as they discuss the following questions:   What are the current key industry trends across regions? Will we see more consolidation in the leasing space? What is the outlook for airlines in the next 6 month? Will the “new” ABS structures improve credit risk and cash retention? Are asset values stabilising? Is the industry preparing for tighter ESG within aviation?   Can't make it?Register anyway, all registrants will receive a copy of the materials after the session. Register here   The data used in this webinar is from InsightIQ, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. InsightIQ combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.    

Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

ArticlesWill HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?Discover more

Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

ArticlesAirport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport SlotsDiscover more

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

The Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation Market

ArticlesThe Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation MarketDiscover more

Lewis Leslie, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Fleets and Values intelligence to explore the structure of the Japanese aviation market.   Executive Summary   19% of the Japanese in-service aircraft fleet remains either parked or stored. Aircraft utilisation by Japanese airlines has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels, in line with global utilisation trends. However, the Japanese aviation market is robust and well-placed for growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region in coming years. Large scale fleet renewal is expected within the next 10 years, but the rate of replacement is uncertain due to delays to the Boeing 737 MAX. Sale and Leasebacks accounted for the majority of secondary market transactions in 2020 through to March 2021, with nine recorded. The volume of JOLCO transactions fell last year but is expected to recover as demand for new aircraft returns.

IBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment Community

News & PR29AprIBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment CommunityDiscover more

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.

IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – Japan

WebinarsIBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – JapanDiscover more

IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, provide an overview of the Japanese aviation market. In this session IBA discuss trends across aviation finance in Japan and Asia Pac.   Using analysis from InsightIQ, join Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and John Duley, Business Development Manager - Asia, as they discuss the following topics:   Aircraft value performance  The changing face of Airline Fleets Possible Airline Failures OEM activity What are the changing trends in Retirements? Transactional Activity – Trading Sales and Capital Activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: John Duley  

How Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?

Videos & PodcastsHow Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?Discover more

The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns?   Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA’s Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries.    The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou  

Covid-19: One year on, how well have ABS structures performed?

WebinarsCovid-19: One year on, how well have ABS structures performed?Discover more

As we approach the first anniversary of global travel restrictions and the extraordinary levels of grounded aircraft due to Covid-19, IBA in partnership with Split Rock Aviation, join forces to explore ABS vehicles. Together, the panel review ABS market performance, resilience and how the structures have and will need to adapt for the future.   Using InsightIQ data from IBA, join Phil Seymour and Clay Smith as they discuss:   How has the market performed? What are the mechanisms to provide cash for maintenance? How will vehicles deal with early returns? What is the impact from lease holidays and the impact on cash flows? How have ABS asset values changed? What is the market appetite for new transactions? How have structures adapted and prepared for the future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help.    Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: Phil Seymour

What Does Aercap’s Acquisition Of GECAS Mean For Aircraft Leasing?

ArticlesFlights circled on a world mapDiscover more

Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact for aircraft leasing following the announcement of AerCap’s intention to acquire GECAS.   AerCap’s announcement on 10th March 2021 of its intended acquisition of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) will, if approved, give it a 54% holding of a superpower lessor which owns and manages an in-service fleet approaching 2,100 aircraft, has an order backlog of more than 500 units and an aggregate customer base of nearly 300 operators. As announced by both parties, General Electric-owned GECAS will receive USD 24 bn in cash from AerCap along with USD 111.5 m newly issued AerCap shares and USD 1 bn AerCap notes/cash. With diverse geographical distributions and varying customer base and asset type exposures, what impact will a leasing giant in control of almost 14% of the entire fleet have on the aviation sector and rival lessors?

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

ArticlesA fleet of aeroplanesDiscover more

Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

China’s Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

ArticlesDomestic plane travelling over new yearDiscover more

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

IBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your aircraft assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series, 'Rising To The Challenge of Covid-19'.   The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's aircraft values and lease rates moved across the asset classes- narrowbody, widebody and turboprops? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What are the justifications for IBA's Base Value changes? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans

Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism

ArticlesKey Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of OptimismDiscover more

In our 2021 forecast for the year ahead, Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer at IBA, shares IBA’s opinion on traffic, transactions, asset values and airline failures in 2021. ‘Now that 2020 is behind us, we can begin to look forward to 2021 and beyond; we can consider whether there are signals we can be optimistic about. A long, slow vaccination process is underway but, although this is a positive development, when do we realistically foresee the current market’s harsh conditions will start to ease?’

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

ArticlesWhat Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?Discover more

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

IBA Forecasts Partial Aviation Recovery In 2021 With Major Regional Variations

News & PR19JanIBA Forecasts Partial Aviation Recovery In 2021 With Major Regional VariationsDiscover more

- Significant changes in OEM order and delivery shares, storage levels, market levels and lease rates -   The advent and rollout of vaccines will start to drive a partial recovery in the aviation sector in 2021, but with significant variance between global regions, according to new data from IBA.  

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

ArticlesUS Airlines Record Strong Increase In CapacityDiscover more

Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.  

IBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021Discover more

Significant uncertainty will remain in 2021, but the global aviation industry remains agile and resilient to weather future challenges in 2021 and beyond.   Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss, and predict trends across aviation finance for the year ahead.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date market insight.   Topics covered include: IBA’s aircraft values The changing face of airline fleets  Possible airline failures The road to recovery OEM activity What are the changing trends in retirements? Transactional activity Trading sales and capital activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments, please contact Mike Yeomans.  

IBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery

WebinarsIBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To RecoveryDiscover more

The positive news of several Covid-19 vaccines and various testing regimes have spread optimism that travel restrictions will soon ease, passenger confidence will return and the economic impact dissipates quickly in 2021. Whilst we hope for all of these things, it’s likely there will be further challenges ahead and there will certainly be a variety of recovery patterns across the globe.   Join speakers from IBA for a review of how to effectively manage engine assets to build a resilient and cash preserving strategy that supports the road to recovery.   Topic discussed include:   Shop visit forecasts Differing scenarios How resilient is the engine market? The importance of spare engine ratios Do maintenance reserves need to be reviewed? Engine SV options Material use and build standards? What is the trade-off between cash preservation v time on wing Impairments – IFRS16 and 36 issues What will fuel aviation’s green future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Mal Cowley or David Archer

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?

ArticlesHow Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?Discover more

The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.  

What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?

ArticlesWhat Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?Discover more

As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

ArticlesWill Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?Discover more

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

ArticlesCovid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback ActivityDiscover more

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

IBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?Discover more

Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing.   In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates.   Topics covered include:   What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks?  Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

ArticlesHigh Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021Discover more

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?

ArticlesWill a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?Discover more

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

ArticlesFailure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?Discover more

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovAviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBADiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020Discover more

The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

Aircraft Values In Distress Says IBA As Covid Drives Down Demand

News & PR07OctAircraft Values In Distress Says IBA As Covid Drives Down DemandDiscover more

- Airline commercial aircraft fleet drops $60 billion in value -   7th October, 2020: There is a growing divergence between aircraft base and market values as the global effects of the Covid-19 pandemic drive down demand, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market UpdateDiscover more

IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

ArticlesCovid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland EuropeDiscover more

It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

ArticlesUtilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?Discover more

There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket IndustryDiscover more

This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

Over 800 Aircraft To Exit Airline Fleets Says IBA

News & PR23JulOver 800 Aircraft To Exit Airline Fleets Says IBADiscover more

- Aircraft deliveries less than 50% of 2019 levels -- Almost 500 narrowbody cancellations - 90% for Boeing 737 MAX -   23 July, 2020: Over 800 aircraft have been identified as subject to exit from their current airline fleets, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Mid-Year Market Update.

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

ArticlesPositive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.Discover more

In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020.   The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak.   In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic.   In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021.   IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era.   In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years.   Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis.   While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog.   Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain.   Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog.   Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s.   In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future.     Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions.   In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June.     The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter.   Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers.   Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed.   The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020

WebinarsIBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020Discover more

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19.   This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight.   Topics covered included:   Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

ArticlesQ3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are DepletedDiscover more

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

IBA Sees Widespread Covid Aircraft Value Drop, but Recovery Expected for Certain Types

News & PR08JulIBA Sees Widespread Covid Aircraft Value Drop, but Recovery Expected for Certain TypesDiscover more

8th July, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has adjusted its market values for all commercial passenger aircraft types across the widebody, narrowbody, regional jet and turboprop categories to reflect the impact of Covid-19.

IBA's Webinar: The New Curve; Aircraft Values Update

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: The New Curve; Aircraft Values UpdateDiscover more

In session 2 of The New Curve webinar series Navigating Covid-19, IBA's Company President, Phil Seymour, was joined by two of IBA's ISTAT qualified Senior Appraisers to share our latest update to aircraft values. Stuart Hatcher, COO - MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations reviewed and discussed key aircraft value changes.   Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel provided an industry update on recent changes to asset values.   This comprehensive and thought provoking session covered:   Airline failures Key narrow and widebody aircraft asset value changes post Covid-19   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

IBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market Supply

News & PR28MayIBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market SupplyDiscover more

29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Freighter values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - Freighter values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?Discover more

Our senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on current and future asset performance for specific freighter aircraft. Following on the previous session where IBA presented insight on market performance for narrowbody and widebody commercial aircraft, our panel take a deeper dive looking at the different freighter categories and specific aircraft types. The panel share opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identify which asset types are more vulnerable, flag those that are more resilient and discuss future trends for cargo.Our senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on current and future asset performance for specific freighter aircraft. The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil will be joined by Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

IBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: Covid-19 - aircraft values and lease rates: What are my aviation assets worth?Discover more

Combining IBA's historical data and experience of several downturns over the past 33 years, IBA's senior ISTAT appraiser team review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance.   The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an IBA ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman . Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst.   IBA present their approach to valuations and lease rates, share opinion on market performance in the near and long term and which assets types will be impacted most.Our panel of experts share their experience and views on values and lease rates.   This interactive session, What are my aviation assets worth, will among other things consider:   The approach taken by IBA's award winning appraisal team to valuing aircraft and engines in the near term Provide examples of the impact on widebody and narrowbody aircraft values in different scenarios including value in use, future base value, part out, distressed sales and lease encumbered valuations Why IBA is taking a shrewd approach and not cutting values without tangible evidence and market transactions, but taking into account evidence from previous downturns Your pain points and burning issues by allowing 30 mins for Q&A with our panel   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020

ArticlesChina's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020Discover more

According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

ArticlesWhat Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020Discover more

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

IBA & KPMG Webinar: How could the downturn in passenger demand impact finance modelling for ABS and other aircraft leasing models? April 2020

WebinarsIBA & KPMG Webinar: How could the downturn in passenger demand impact finance modelling for ABS and other aircraft leasing models? April 2020Discover more

Following the success of our recent webinar on the Aircraft ABS market, and in response to demand, Phil Seymour, Company President, from IBA Group and Brendan Crowley, Director, from KPMG Ireland teamed up to assess the likely impact of the current crisis on both narrowbody and widebody aircraft finance models.   This session is a must for must for leasing companies, aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on their portfolios, current leases and investments, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact.   In this session, our experts discuss and address some of the most burning questions through scenario analysis and asset by asset modelling.   Key discussion topics Phil and Brendan try to answer the following:   • How will possible early returns, rental holidays and repossessions impact on previously expected/modelled maintenance events and cashflow? • What risks could lead to an unexpected Event of Default if not monitored? • What are the outcomes and options available to various stakeholders? • Will retirement trends change in the near term? • What is the impact on current market values and lease rates now and in the longer term? • How will models need to change to reflect the current climate and minimise the impact?   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA Forecast Fall In Aircraft Rental And Maintenance Receipts As 60% Of ABS Fleet Grounded

News & PR17AprIBA Forecast Fall In Aircraft Rental And Maintenance Receipts As 60% Of ABS Fleet GroundedDiscover more

Slow aviation recovery in China points to longer term global fleet grounding   17th April, 2020: With almost two thirds of all aircraft financed by asset backed securities (ABS) now grounded due to the COVID-19 crisis, receipts of both aircraft rental and maintenance payments are likely to fall, according to leading aviation consultants IBA in a report today.

No break in the financial storm clouds for Interjet. April 2020

ArticlesNo break in the financial storm clouds for Interjet. April 2020Discover more

The end of Q1 2020 saw claims emerging that several lessors had repossessed aircraft from Interjet. Sources indicate the repossession of at least 27 Airbus A320ceo and A320neo family aircraft from various lessors between March 24th and April 1st, with a further 20+ aircraft repossessed/returned to lessors from April 2nd to date. The ongoing Covid-19 situation is unprecedented, and no doubt plays a role in Interjet's difficulties. However, with lessors broadly agreeing payment deferrals with troubled airlines, these repossessions hint at ongoing, underlying problems at the airline.

The current state of the Aircraft ABS market and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, April 2020

WebinarsThe current state of the Aircraft ABS market and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, April 2020Discover more

IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation have combined forces to provide a review of the ABS market and the stress which travel restrictions from Covid-19 are placing on the Aviation ABS structures. This session is invaluable for all investors in aircraft and engine ABS structures.   Clay Smith from Split Rock Aviation and IBA's Phil Seymour, discuss which transactions may be most at risk and what investors should expect to see going forward.   This session is invaluable for all investors in aircraft and engine ABS structures.   Topics covered include:   An overview of the ABS market Structural issues of ABS deals, such as default triggers and cash traps, and how these impact the various tranches of investors Asset values and future maintenance events Airline strength, asset performance and servicer issues   The slide deck is also available to download If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour  

IBA and Split Rock forecast downgrades to Aircraft asset-backed securities

News & PR02AprIBA and Split Rock forecast downgrades to Aircraft asset-backed securitiesDiscover more

Huge losses expected for airlines but ABS defaults unlikely Aircraft lease rates and values forecast to fall 2nd April, 2020: Downgrades are expected to the credit ratings of airlines' aircraft asset-backed securities (ABS) as they struggle to meet the challenges of COVID-19, according to leading aviation consultants IBA and Split Rock Aviation in a report today.

Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020

ArticlesCovid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020Discover more

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

Passenger to Freighter Conversions

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

News & PR26FebStationary Freighter FleetDiscover more

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Freighter values in 2021

WebinarsThe engine of an aircraftDiscover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your freighter assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series.   In the second of three sessions, our ISTAT qualified appraiser panel will focus on the freighter market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's asset values and lease rates moved for freighter aircraft? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How strong is conversion demand across the different programmes? What feedstock is available and how competitive is the pricing? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jonathan McDonald

A New Era of Widebody Freighters

ArticlesA New Era of Widebody FreightersDiscover more

For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

ArticlesWhat Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?Discover more

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family. 

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovAviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBADiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

IBA Highlights High Air Freighter Demand But Mixed Long Term Potential For Aircraft Types

News & PR28MayIBA Highlights High Air Freighter Demand But Mixed Long Term Potential For Aircraft TypesDiscover more

20th May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.

IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019

ArticlesIBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019Discover more

Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.

IBA's Passenger to Freighter Webinar, May 2019

WebinarsIBA's Passenger to Freighter Webinar, May 2019Discover more

IBA's Passenger to Freighter Webinar was designed specifically around the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session is a must for those considering converting fleet or looking at end of life options.   IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft and Phil Seymour, CEO, added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions vs parting out plus the need for scrutiny as the market for Cargo begins to change.   A copy of our Passenger to Freighter slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions please contact us.

What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?

ArticlesWhat Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?Discover more

IBA Report: issued March 2019   Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.

IBA's Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019

ArticlesIBA's Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019Discover more

Freighter Conversions - capitalising on the resurgence in demand Freight volumes are continuing to trend on an upward trajectory and at a solid rate when compared to historical data. It should be noted however, that due to the inventory restocking cycle having concluded and manufacturing export orders remaining low, demand factors are lacking when compared to 2017. This paper looks at the current and future freighter market, production, routes into the market and takes a close look at a B737 conversion.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

ArticlesIBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018Discover more

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

IBA Foresee 1000 P2F Conversions Being Required In The Next 17 years

ArticlesIBA Foresee 1000 P2F Conversions Being Required In The Next 17 yearsDiscover more

According to IATA's March 2018 Freight Analysis report, global freight volumes slowed to a 22-month low, 1.7% year-on-year in March. This outcome represents the slowest pace of annual growth since the early part of 2016. The decline in growth can predominantly be attributed to the end of the restocking cycle which was one of the drivers behind the high growth figures. IATA have cautioned against reading too much into the most recent figures and expects growth of 4-5% overall for 2018.

IBA Contributes to an Aircargonews Article on Freighter Conversions, October 2017

ArticlesIBA Contributes to an Aircargonews Article on Freighter Conversions, October 2017Discover more

Passenger to freighter conversions will form a sizeable tranche of the ‘new' main deck metal entering the market over the next 20 years, according to airframers Boeing and Airbus.

Environment

Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors

ArticlesCarbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for LessorsDiscover more

There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees.   IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate.   1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC).   Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)   Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC   Read the full case study here   Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study:   Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR.   All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo

IBA Outlines Carbon Reduction Strategies for Aircraft Lessors

News & PR26AprIBA Outlines Carbon Reduction Strategies for Aircraft LessorsDiscover more

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has set out a range of carbon reduction strategies that can be adopted by aircraft lessors.

Green And Ethical Credentials Touch Down In The Aviation Market; Delivering Your Green Financing Responsibilities

WebinarsGreen And Ethical Credentials Touch Down In The Aviation Market; Delivering Your Green Financing ResponsibilitiesDiscover more

Increasingly, aviation finance is being required to demonstrate ethical credentials and environmental concern. IBA’s advisory team discuss current and future policy requirements, initiatives and market developments to help navigate and understand future requirements to meet investor and stakeholder needs.   Using analysis and real world carbon emissions intelligence from InsightIQ, join Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, Ian Beaumont, CEO, Tim Boon, Aviation Analyst and ESG lead, and Michael Halaby, Halaby Aero Limited as they discuss the following topics:   What are the planned development initiatives from major OEMs? How are industry bodies regulating the industry, and what is the impact? What information and analysis will aviation finance need to demonstrate? What actions can companies take to reduce/offset emissions? Will SAF be a realistic option for airlines? What green credentials are investors looking for and why? Are green bonds a lifeline for the aviation industry?   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Tim Boon   The slide deck is available to download here.     The analysis and intelligence used in this webinar is from our new Carbon Emissions Calculator from InsightIQ. Tailored for airlines and aviation finance, InsightIQ CEC is an independent, unbiased calculator of emissions data based on real-world flights, aggregated to compare emissions by: aircraft, organisations, geographic distribution and portfolios.   See our Carbon Emissions Calculator in action

IBA Records Growing and Decreasing Aviation Emissions With First Of It's Kind Carbon Calculator

News & PR18MarA photo of a commercial aircraft flying over some green trees in a forest.Discover more

- ETS covers only 11% of commercial aviation emissions in 2020 - - Premium seating and older aircraft impact emissions efficiency -     Independent carbon emissions analysis for airlines and lessors, aircraft portfolios and regions is now easily accessible following the launch today of a Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC) by the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA. 

IBA’s Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2021

Videos & PodcastsIBA’s Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2021Discover more

Despite its best efforts, the Covid-19 pandemic failed to deflect all stakeholder interest within the aviation industry away from environmental and sustainability concerns. In January 2020 IBA published its well-received ‘Aviation and the Environment’ report and in response to market demand, we have just released our 2021 version. Download your copy here   In this short podcast, IBA’s Phil Seymour (President & Head of Advisory) and Tim Boon (Aviation Analyst and ESG Specialist) discuss current regulation and compliance information, emerging green finance initiatives including sustainability loans and OEM investment and research activity. Additionally, the pair share details of IBA’s latest initiative, our InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator. Available in the coming weeks, this new module will support the market with compliance, stakeholder engagement, green financing and efficiency by measuring carbon emissions across all commercial aircraft. Request more information here   We hope you find this podcast insightful and relevant to your business. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Tim Boon

IBA's Aviation And The Environment, February 2021

ArticlesIBA's Aviation And The Environment, February 2021Discover more

In response to widespread demand, IBA’s Tim Boon delivers an update on sustainable aviation finance and green initiatives for 2021. This popular report provides the latest on ESG regulation and compliance, green financing initiative and new developments in SAF and OEM advances.

IBA’s Aviation Podcast: Glimmers of Positivity for the Engine Market

Videos & PodcastsIBA’s Aviation Podcast: Glimmers of Positivity for the Engine MarketDiscover more

Following on from our Engine Market Update webinar in September, IBA’s Phil Seymour, President & Head of Advisory, and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, bring you an insightful and thought-provoking podcast that reviews the current status of the aero engine market.   It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the engine sector. However, positive news about the vaccines, stored aircraft returning to service and utilisation increasing are all indicators that the outlook for the engine market is looking much less bleak than it was a few months ago.   Listen to Phil and David as they come together to provide a top-level overview on key topics such as engine shop visit capacity vs demand, difficulties faced by the engine OEMs and the performance of engine values.   If you have any further questions, or comments please contact David Archer   Looking for more information? Our next engine webinar is scheduled for December 10th, where our award-winning team will take a deeper dive into the technical aspects of engine shop visits and cost management using data from our intelligence platform InsightIQ. Register for free here.  

What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?

ArticlesWhat Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?Discover more

As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.

The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19

ArticlesThe Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19Discover more

ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.

IBA's Environment and Aircraft Finance Roundtable Lunch, 2nd March 2020

ArticlesIBA's Environment and Aircraft Finance Roundtable Lunch, 2nd March 2020Discover more

The environment is a core issue for the aviation industry to manage and to ensure investors remain attracted to our industry to deliver sustainable growth. This roundtable session drew on the experience of key industry stakeholders to share current and future plans to address this challenge.

IBA's Aviation And The Environment Whitepaper, February 2020

ArticlesIBA's Aviation And The Environment Whitepaper, February 2020Discover more

Aviation generates 2-3% of global CO₂ emissions and, if business continues as usual, is on course to produce double these emissions by 2037 when IATA predicts 8.2 billion annual air travellers. As a result, the industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its contribution to global warming and decarbonise operations in a bid to offset passenger growth. Sustainability and aviation's impact on the environment are significant issues facing the industry over the coming years, subjects which will be at the forefront of investment and business opportunities. This report explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry.

IBA's Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2020

Videos & PodcastsIBA's Aviation and the Environment Podcast, February 2020Discover more

This podcast explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact Tim Boon.

A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019

ArticlesA Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019Discover more

Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

ArticlesSandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh ConditionsDiscover more

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

ArticlesAirport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport SlotsDiscover more

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

The Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation Market

ArticlesThe Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation MarketDiscover more

Lewis Leslie, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Fleets and Values intelligence to explore the structure of the Japanese aviation market.   Executive Summary   19% of the Japanese in-service aircraft fleet remains either parked or stored. Aircraft utilisation by Japanese airlines has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels, in line with global utilisation trends. However, the Japanese aviation market is robust and well-placed for growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region in coming years. Large scale fleet renewal is expected within the next 10 years, but the rate of replacement is uncertain due to delays to the Boeing 737 MAX. Sale and Leasebacks accounted for the majority of secondary market transactions in 2020 through to March 2021, with nine recorded. The volume of JOLCO transactions fell last year but is expected to recover as demand for new aircraft returns.

IBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment Community

News & PR29AprIBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment CommunityDiscover more

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.

IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – Japan

WebinarsIBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – JapanDiscover more

IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, provide an overview of the Japanese aviation market. In this session IBA discuss trends across aviation finance in Japan and Asia Pac.   Using analysis from InsightIQ, join Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and John Duley, Business Development Manager - Asia, as they discuss the following topics:   Aircraft value performance  The changing face of Airline Fleets Possible Airline Failures OEM activity What are the changing trends in Retirements? Transactional Activity – Trading Sales and Capital Activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: John Duley  

How Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?

Videos & PodcastsHow Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?Discover more

The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns?   Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA’s Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries.    The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou  

Aircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBA

News & PR12MarAircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBADiscover more

The aircraft engine market is showing early signs of recovery from the worst effects of the Covid-19, but is not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until the mid-2020s, according to leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

ArticlesA fleet of aeroplanesDiscover more

Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

News & PR26FebStationary Freighter FleetDiscover more

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

IBA's Webinar: All you need to know about Freighter values in 2021

WebinarsThe engine of an aircraftDiscover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your freighter assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series.   In the second of three sessions, our ISTAT qualified appraiser panel will focus on the freighter market. The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's asset values and lease rates moved for freighter aircraft? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How strong is conversion demand across the different programmes? What feedstock is available and how competitive is the pricing? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jonathan McDonald

China’s Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

ArticlesDomestic plane travelling over new yearDiscover more

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

ArticlesAviation Market AnalysisDiscover more

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

IBA Sees Least Dilution In New Gen Aircraft Values With A320neo Outpacing 737 Max

News & PR12FebAeroplane flying over cityDiscover more

New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.  

IBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021

WebinarsIBA's New Webinar Series: All you need to know about Aircraft Values in 2021Discover more

Gain a clearer understanding of the value of your aircraft assets and the driving forces behind value and lease rate changes. Join IBA’s experienced and award-winning valuation specialists for our new webinar series, 'Rising To The Challenge of Covid-19'.   The panel discusses the following questions and topics:   How have IBA's aircraft values and lease rates moved across the asset classes- narrowbody, widebody and turboprops? What are the driving forces behind IBA's recent market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What are the justifications for IBA's Base Value changes? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen in 2021?   The slide deck is available to download here.   We hope you find the session insightful and relevant to your operations. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans

Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism

ArticlesKey Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of OptimismDiscover more

In our 2021 forecast for the year ahead, Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer at IBA, shares IBA’s opinion on traffic, transactions, asset values and airline failures in 2021. ‘Now that 2020 is behind us, we can begin to look forward to 2021 and beyond; we can consider whether there are signals we can be optimistic about. A long, slow vaccination process is underway but, although this is a positive development, when do we realistically foresee the current market’s harsh conditions will start to ease?’

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

ArticlesWhat Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?Discover more

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

IBA Forecasts Partial Aviation Recovery In 2021 With Major Regional Variations

News & PR19JanIBA Forecasts Partial Aviation Recovery In 2021 With Major Regional VariationsDiscover more

- Significant changes in OEM order and delivery shares, storage levels, market levels and lease rates -   The advent and rollout of vaccines will start to drive a partial recovery in the aviation sector in 2021, but with significant variance between global regions, according to new data from IBA.  

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

ArticlesUS Airlines Record Strong Increase In CapacityDiscover more

Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.  

IBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar Jan 2021Discover more

Significant uncertainty will remain in 2021, but the global aviation industry remains agile and resilient to weather future challenges in 2021 and beyond.   Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss, and predict trends across aviation finance for the year ahead.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date market insight.   Topics covered include: IBA’s aircraft values The changing face of airline fleets  Possible airline failures The road to recovery OEM activity What are the changing trends in retirements? Transactional activity Trading sales and capital activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments, please contact Mike Yeomans.  

Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta

ArticlesAircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and DeltaDiscover more

Using fleet data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, it’s possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

ArticlesWhat Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?Discover more

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family. 

IBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery

WebinarsIBA's Webinar - How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To RecoveryDiscover more

The positive news of several Covid-19 vaccines and various testing regimes have spread optimism that travel restrictions will soon ease, passenger confidence will return and the economic impact dissipates quickly in 2021. Whilst we hope for all of these things, it’s likely there will be further challenges ahead and there will certainly be a variety of recovery patterns across the globe.   Join speakers from IBA for a review of how to effectively manage engine assets to build a resilient and cash preserving strategy that supports the road to recovery.   Topic discussed include:   Shop visit forecasts Differing scenarios How resilient is the engine market? The importance of spare engine ratios Do maintenance reserves need to be reviewed? Engine SV options Material use and build standards? What is the trade-off between cash preservation v time on wing Impairments – IFRS16 and 36 issues What will fuel aviation’s green future?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Mal Cowley or David Archer

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

ArticlesWill Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?Discover more

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

IBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?

WebinarsIBA's Webinar: Aviation Finance Deals Are Happening, But At What Price?Discover more

Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing.   In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates.   Topics covered include:   What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks?  Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit?   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

ArticlesHigh Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021Discover more

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?

ArticlesWill a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?Discover more

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

ArticlesFailure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?Discover more

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?

ArticlesIs Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?Discover more

Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

IBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020

WebinarsIBA's Market Update Webinar, October 2020Discover more

The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance.   This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour

IBA & LCI Podcast: The Helicopter Market and the Impact of Covid-19

Videos & PodcastsHelicopterDiscover more

Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, and Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman of LCI, come together to discuss the helicopter market and the impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic.   With a combined experience of nearly 100 years in aviation, the pair discuss how Covid-19 has impacted the helicopter sector, drawing comparison to the fixed wing market.   If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback on the topics discussed please contact Phil Seymour.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

ArticlesMan looking at engineDiscover more

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

ArticlesWing of plane mid flightDiscover more

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

ArticlesWill Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?Discover more

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Aircraft Values In Distress Says IBA As Covid Drives Down Demand

News & PR07OctAircraft Values In Distress Says IBA As Covid Drives Down DemandDiscover more

- Airline commercial aircraft fleet drops $60 billion in value -   7th October, 2020: There is a growing divergence between aircraft base and market values as the global effects of the Covid-19 pandemic drive down demand, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.

IBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market Update

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The New Curve; Engine Market UpdateDiscover more

IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19.   IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on:   Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer

Asian Aviation In Conversation with Phil Seymour of IBA

Videos & PodcastsAsian Aviation In Conversation with Phil Seymour of IBADiscover more

Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President, had the pleasure of joining Matthew Driskill from Asian Aviation for a discussion on the industry and a deep dive into the impact of the unprecedented global Covid-19 pandemic.   If you have any further questions or comments on the topics mentioned please contact Phil Seymour.

IBA's Masterclass: Asset Values Explained

WebinarsIBA's Masterclass: Asset Values ExplainedDiscover more

Aviation Asset Valuation is often a thoroughly debated and complicated subject - no matter where the industry is in the aviation cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented downturn in air traffic. As such, it is even more important to consider valuation definitions and the correct and valid use of them for pending transaction and for year-end audit purposes.   Designed for airlines, lessors, financiers alike, strengthen and build understanding of valuation methodology by joining IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the year. Combining our specialist valuation skills, with commercial and industry expertise, our Masterclass covers:   All you need to know about Base Value and Market Value and how they should be used - IFRS/IAS 36 Impairment of Assets Should impairment of the airline book value be considered and how market or base value should be applied International Standard on Auditing ISA 620   Voted Appraiser of the Year in 2012, 2018, 2020 and with over 30+ years of knowledgeable market experience, we have a deep understanding of the market. This session is a must for those looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans

Over 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBA

News & PR18SepOver 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBADiscover more

- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground -   18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

WebinarsIBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020Discover more

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions.   2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions.   Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas:   Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand   This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines.   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

ArticlesPreparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)Discover more

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

IBA & KPMG Podcast: Aviation Asset Impairments and the Impact of Covid-19

Videos & PodcastsIBA & KPMG Podcast: Aviation Asset Impairments and the Impact of Covid-19Discover more

Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, and Killian Croke, Partner at KPMG Ireland, come together to discuss how the Covid-19 global pandemic will impact aviation asset impairments in the future.   This short podcast is a precursor to the IBA Asset Values Masterclass webinar we are running tomorrow (Thursday 24th September). Designed for airlines, lessors, and financiers, this complementary webinar is a must attend for anybody looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations. If you would like to attend, secure your place here.   If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback on the topics discussed please contact Phil Seymour.

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

ArticlesCovid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland EuropeDiscover more

It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

ArticlesPreparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)Discover more

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

Covid-19: Is the 3-month Airline Payment Deferral the End of the Story?

Videos & PodcastsCovid-19: Is the 3-month Airline Payment Deferral the End of the Story?Discover more

The Covid-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global aviation industry, with some of the most severe ramifications impacting airlines and lessors. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects airline revenues to decline industry-wide by 50% in 2020, falling from USD 838 billion to USD 419 billion. With such significant financial strain, how can airlines and lessors work in partnership to pivot their approach and achieve a pragmatic solution?   Combining nearly a century of aviation expertise, Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President, and Andy Mansell, Partner at Split Rock Aviation, bring you an insightful and thought-provoking webcast that discusses:   How can airlines and lessors achieve a "win-win" situation - unprecedented times call for unprecedented solutions Restructuring - The need for a dynamic outlook Working in partnership - what happens beyond the 3-month payment deferral?   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Phil Seymour.

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

ArticlesEconomic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?Discover more

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

ArticlesUtilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?Discover more

There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

2020 MRO Spend Expected To Drop By More Than 50%

News & PR04Aug2020 MRO Spend Expected To Drop By More Than 50%Discover more

- Spend set to be less than half of US $90bn forecast -- Engine shop visits and spend taking the biggest hit -- Need for innovation and flexible maintenance programs has never been greater -- Lower cost options such as PMA expected to be in demand -   4th August, 2020: With MRO industry revenues directly related to aircraft utilisation, 2020's total MRO spend will be less than half of the approximately $90bn forecasted, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry Webinar.  

IBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry

WebinarsIBA Webinar: The Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket IndustryDiscover more

This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19.   This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry.   Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas:   How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

ArticlesPositive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.Discover more

In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020.   The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak.   In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic.   In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021.   IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era.   In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years.   Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis.   While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog.   Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain.   Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog.   Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s.   In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future.     Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions.   In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June.     The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter.   Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers.   Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed.   The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020

WebinarsIBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar, July 2020Discover more

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19.   This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight.   Topics covered included:   Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets   The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans  

Airline Credits

What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

ArticlesWhat is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?Discover more

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis.  In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?

ArticlesHow Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?Discover more

The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.  

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

ArticlesFailure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?Discover more

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

News & PR02NovAviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBADiscover more

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

ArticlesWill Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?Discover more

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

ArticlesQ3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are DepletedDiscover more

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

ArticlesIBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019Discover more

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

Uncategorised

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers New York

Events20OctAirline Economics Growth Frontiers New YorkDiscover more

Airline Economics New York takes place this year at the Metropolitan Club, IBA's experts will be on hand, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   IBA's Phil Seymour, Company President, will be speaking on the ABS & EETC aircraft valuations panel on Wednesday 20th October and moderating the Financing & Investing in aircraft & engines in a cyclical industry panel on Thursday 21st October.   Stuart Hatcher, IBA's Chief Revnue Officer, is pleased to be speaking on the Airline Ratings panel on Wednesday 20th October.   More information will be available nearer the event.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

ISTAT EMEA Edinburgh

Events03OctISTAT EMEA EdinburghDiscover more

IBA will be sponsoring ISTAT EMEA and our team of expert analysts will be on hand, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   More information will be available nearer the event.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dubai

Events28SepAirline Economics Growth Frontiers DubaiDiscover more

Airline Economics Dubai returns this year at the Ritz Carlton Dubai Beach, IBA's experts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   More information will be available nearer the event.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

Airfinance Journal Dublin 2021

Events14SepAirfinance Journal Dublin 2021Discover more

IBA's team of expert analysts will be attending this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   More information will be available nearer the event.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin & Environmental Summit 2021

Events14SepAirline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin & Environmental Summit 2021Discover more

IBA's Phil Seymour, Company President, will be giving an overview on lessors and the environment at 9:15 on Tuesday 14th September.   Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer, is pleased to be moderating the Helicopter panel at 15:35 on Thursday 16th September.   A team of IBA's expert analysts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   More information will be available nearer the event.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

Airfinance Journal Americas

Events03AugAirfinance Journal AmericasDiscover more

Airfinance Journal Americas in Miami will hold both the North America (3-4th) and Latin America (4-5th) events this year, giving a great opportunity to network in-person.   IBA's team of expert analysts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   For more details on the event, please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

Airfinance Journal China 2021 (Virtual)

Events22JunAirfinance Journal China 2021 (Virtual)Discover more

Airfinance Journal China 2021 will be virtual this year and will run on the 22-23rd June for 2 days of networking and knowledge sharing.   IBA's team of expert analysts will be in attendance at this virtual event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ.   For more details on the event, please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero

IBA Announces Changes to its Senior Leadership Team

News & PR11MarIBA Announces Changes to its Senior Leadership TeamDiscover more

London / Dublin / Tokyo, March 11th 2020: IBA Group is pleased to announce the appointment of Ian Beaumont to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of IBA Group effective from 11th March 2020. Phil Seymour, IBA's former CEO will continue to serve as Company President.

Award winning Aviation Consultancy IBA Group crowned ‘Appraiser of the Year' for the second time in three years at the Aviation 100 Awards in Dublin

News & PR21JanAward winning Aviation Consultancy IBA Group crowned ‘Appraiser of the Year' for the second time in three years at the Aviation 100 Awards in DublinDiscover more

London / Dublin / Tokyo / Los Angeles - January 21st 2020: IBA Group, the awardwinning specialist aviation consultancy, has won the coveted Appraiser of the Year 2020at the Airline Economics Aviation 100 awards held last night. This is the second time inthree years that IBA has won this prestigious award, having previously won in 2018, andis testament to its best practice and strategic focus. The firm was voted for by industrypeers in the aviation banking, leasing and brokerage sectors in recognition of itsindependent valuation expertise and significant depth of experience.

Featured

IBA & KPMG's Webinar: State of the Industry Debate; Will the Northern Hemisphere be clear for take off this summer?

Events26MayDiscover more

IBA in partnership with KPMG, join forces to explore key market indicators for the aviation industry. Together, the panel will discuss global market performance and the outlook for the coming months. Will the traditionally busy Northern Hemisphere summer deliver for the industry? Register here   Using InsightIQ aviation intelligence, join Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans from IBA, and Kieran O'Brien from KPMG, as they discuss the following questions:   What are the current key industry trends across regions? Will we see more consolidation in the leasing space? What is the outlook for airlines in the next 6 month? Will the “new” ABS structures improve credit risk and cash retention? Are asset values stabilising? Is the industry preparing for tighter ESG within aviation?   Can't make it?Register anyway, all registrants will receive a copy of the materials after the session. Register here   The data used in this webinar is from InsightIQ, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. InsightIQ combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.    

IBA Named “Appraiser Of The Year” For The Third Time In Four Years

AnnouncementDiscover more

We’re delighted to announce that IBA, the leading independent aviation analytics and advisory company, has once again been crowned Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the prestigious Airline Economics Aviation 100 Awards. This is the third time in four years that IBA has secured the title, having previously won in 2012, 2018 and 2020.

Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors

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There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees.   IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate.   1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC).   Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)   Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC   Read the full case study here   Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study:   Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR.   All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

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Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

Green And Ethical Credentials Touch Down In The Aviation Market; Delivering Your Green Financing Responsibilities

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Increasingly, aviation finance is being required to demonstrate ethical credentials and environmental concern. IBA’s advisory team discuss current and future policy requirements, initiatives and market developments to help navigate and understand future requirements to meet investor and stakeholder needs.   Using analysis and real world carbon emissions intelligence from InsightIQ, join Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, Ian Beaumont, CEO, Tim Boon, Aviation Analyst and ESG lead, and Michael Halaby, Halaby Aero Limited as they discuss the following topics:   What are the planned development initiatives from major OEMs? How are industry bodies regulating the industry, and what is the impact? What information and analysis will aviation finance need to demonstrate? What actions can companies take to reduce/offset emissions? Will SAF be a realistic option for airlines? What green credentials are investors looking for and why? Are green bonds a lifeline for the aviation industry?   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Tim Boon   The slide deck is available to download here.     The analysis and intelligence used in this webinar is from our new Carbon Emissions Calculator from InsightIQ. Tailored for airlines and aviation finance, InsightIQ CEC is an independent, unbiased calculator of emissions data based on real-world flights, aggregated to compare emissions by: aircraft, organisations, geographic distribution and portfolios.   See our Carbon Emissions Calculator in action

IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar – Japan

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IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, provide an overview of the Japanese aviation market. In this session IBA discuss trends across aviation finance in Japan and Asia Pac.   Using analysis from InsightIQ, join Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and John Duley, Business Development Manager - Asia, as they discuss the following topics:   Aircraft value performance  The changing face of Airline Fleets Possible Airline Failures OEM activity What are the changing trends in Retirements? Transactional Activity – Trading Sales and Capital Activity   The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: John Duley  

Aviation Week Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance 2021

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The Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance conference will now be virtual due to Covid restrictions on numbers.   Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, will be speaking on a 'Used serviceable materials (USM)' panel discussion at 16:10 on Tuesday 18th May, topics covered include:   What we can expect to see in the parts market over the next few years? Which models could we see a surge in parts on the market for? What pricing strategies are brokers prioritising? In the next few years, as capital increases for operators, will we see more engines parted out? How will running green-time engines affect the market?   For more details on the event, please click here.   If you would like to arrange a meeting at this event please contact: David Archer.

How Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?

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The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns?   Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA’s Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries.    The slide deck is available to download here.   If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou  

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Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

ArticlesSandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh ConditionsDiscover more

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

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