Aviation Market Intelligence Blog

IBA Insight

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6 Key Factors Affecting Aircraft Engine Values in 2024

In recent months, the aircraft engine market has continued to see a surge in demand for many engine types following quality issues on the newer generation engines, including the PW1100G, a focal engine in this commentary. These quality issues combined with a lack of spare engines and material for shop visit events, fuel inflated demand as we head into Q2 2024. Furthermore, all aircraft engine product families continue to face above-average cost escalations resulting in higher cost of ownership which continues to prove a challenge for those invested. As a result, IBA's engine valuations team has increased its narrowbody engine market values and identified some key market factors contributing to this.

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Aircraft Values & Lease Rates: February 2024

Where are aircraft values and lease rates going in 2024? The general sentiment for 2024 is that values and leases will continue to soar throughout 2024 with this movement attributed to several industry factors. This includes the current tight supply, driven by lease extensions, current engine reliability issues and a lack of new aircraft deliveries. In our aviation market update webinar for Q1 2024, IBA's specialist aircraft valuations and appraisal team shared the latest updates for commercial narrowbody and widebody aircraft values. Here’s how the individual aviation asset classes have performed over the last year and the forward outlook for this year. Narrowbody Aircraft Market values Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months) There has been a growth in new generation narrowbody aircraft values, particularly for the 737 MAX 8 and the A320neo models, which are closely matched in terms of Market Value. Specific aircraft valuations are influenced by aircraft specifications such as Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW) and engine thrust, along with the nature of the transaction and the motivations of the participants, leading to potential variations. After robust gains in 2023, there is an optimistic outlook for continued growth in 2024, extending to both the A320ceo and the 737NG. In the mid-life narrowbody aircraft segment, there has been a significant increase in aircraft values throughout 2023, with further gains projected for 2024. This suggests a sustained progression. Operators are demonstrating interest in older aircraft, even those in less-than-ideal conditions, as they strategically acquire assets from the secondary market with plans for subsequent investments in their serviceability. This trend reflects a proactive approach from airline operators, as they anticipate future returns on their investments. Lease rates Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months) Narrowbody aircraft lease rates have been characterised by a significant upward trend in 2024, particularly for the 737 MAX 8 and A320neos. IBA forecasts an increase to $410,000 per month by July 2024, signalling substantial growth. The A321neo specifically is experiencing a surge, with lease rates already in the mid-$400,000s range expected to increase as the year progresses. This is partly driven by tight supply, due to ongoing production rate recovery, and the elevated interest rate environment. In the mid-life segment, lease rates have also seen a robust increase, especially for the A320 family (A320 and A321), with mid-life examples registering over 20% annual growth in some cases. The grounding of GTF-powered aircraft and operators extending leases to cope with supply constraints in the secondary market has fuelled this growth in lease rates. While this has caused lease rates for the A320ceo to approach parity with the 737-800, the rate of growth is anticipated to cool off, as the year progresses, reaching a plateau in the middle of the year. Lease rates for mid-life aircraft are climbing, from above $200,000 to the mid-$200,000s range. Widebody Aircraft Market values Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months) In the widebody segment, we have identified a recovery in the market values of current-generation aircraft, that is expected to continue into the middle of the year. Notably, A350-900 values are closing in on those of the Boeing 787-10, erasing the latter’s premium. The continuing recovery in widebody aircraft values also mirrors the trends seen for narrowbody aircraft last year. The flurry of orders, especially for the A350 and Boeing 787, echoes the strong demand witnessed in the narrowbody segment, and while the values have not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels, there is room for further growth into the middle of the year. IBA has seen a robust recovery in the mature widebody segment, particularly for mid-life examples. Market values for these assets are expected to have more than doubled in 12 months by mid-year, representing one of the most substantial percentage changes in the market. Acquisitions made during the pandemic at lower prices have proven to be astute investments, given the current market dynamics. Notably, the A330 and the Boeing 777-300ER are experiencing a strong uptick in values, driven in part by the solid performance of the value of their engines, which have rebounded significantly. Lease rates Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months) Widebody aircraft lease rates demonstrate a positive outlook in 2024. There has been a notable shift for A330s in 2021 and 2022 to rates now approaching pre-2019 and which are expected to surpass by July 2024. On the Boeing side, the 777-300ER is experiencing a similar upward trend, with rates moving closer to those for a typical 12-year-old aircraft in 2019 and anticipated to surpass 2019 levels by mid-year. A significant driver of the lease rates is the scarcity of available aircraft, characterised by a market dominated by lease extensions rather than new placements. Some extensions surpass $500,000, with operators showing a strong motivation to retain their aircraft, given the limited supply of new aircraft entering the market. Transaction volumes are on the rise, particularly on the lessor trading side, indicating increased activity in the market. While lease placements may be lower as operators opt to extend and retain their current fleet, the overall trend suggests a strengthening market with an uptick in values. This positive trajectory extends to both narrowbody and widebody aircraft, highlighting a robust and evolving landscape in the widebody aircraft lease rate market for the year ahead. Summary The narrowbody and widebody aircraft market in 2024, both exhibits growth and evolving dynamics. Narrowbody aircraft, such as the 737 MAX 8 and the A320neo, are focal points for this growth, with market values influenced by various factors, including inflationary pressures and market demand. Narrowbody aircraft lease rates, driven by factors like production rate recovery, supply constraints, and operator lease extension strategies, contribute to a dynamic and evolving landscape throughout 2024. On the widebody side, the market showcases recovery, convergence in values between key models, and substantial growth in mature widebody aircraft values, emphasising the resilience and evolution of the overall market landscape. To learn more about our latest aircraft values, including turboprop and regional aircraft values, click here to watch the full webinar. If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback, please get in touch with Mike Yeomans.

ウェビナー25Jan 2024

IBA's Market Update Webinar: January 2024

In the first market update webinar of 2024, IBA President Phil Seymour, along with Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Consulting, and Dan Taylor, Head of Consulting, reviewed the aviation industry's performance in 2023 and forecasted trends for 2024. Key takeaways Over the hour, our panel discussed the stable GDP, predicted a slight economic slowdown for 2024-2025, and expressed concerns about inflation and interest rates. The aviation industry saw a record year of orders in 2023, with Airbus leading, followed by Boeing. The backlog of orders is at a record high, dominated by the APAC region. The secondary market availability of aircraft is decreasing, indicating market improvement. The airline industry is expected to see slight improvement in 2024, with profitability improving and a positive outlook for the industry. The webinar concluded with a Q&A session, discussing delivery rates, build rates, and lessor consolidation. The discussion also touched on the impact of the pandemic on the aircraft market, lease rates, and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the aviation industry. The webinar also reintroduced IBA Airlines, and IBA NetZero Reporting, the new addition to IBA NetZero for reporting Scope 3 aviation emissions. "Inflation and interest rates are a concern, with inflation varying across economies and central banks working to bring it down. The aviation industry had a record year of orders in 2023, with a strong dominance from the APAC region. Despite concerns about quality control issues, we expect the growth rate to continue. The availability of off-lease aircraft has been decreasing, indicating an improvement in the market. We expect the number of retirements to rise significantly in the coming years due to the lack of supply of maintenance and parts. The airline industry is expected to see a slight improvement in 2024, with demand exceeding supply, driving operating results upwards. However, exchange rates could impact some operators and labor inflation is easing in most regions." Click the button below to watch on-demand Watch On-demand

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Aircraft Values: Regional Aircraft Performance in 2023

There is strong potential for growth over the next decade in various regional aircraft markets due to the increase in travel demand, providing key opportunities for both OEMs and operators. With recent changes on the OEM side from the likes of Bombardier exiting the market, which regional aircraft have seen the strongest value performance, and which haven’t? Using data from IBA Insight, our aviation intelligence platform, as well as insights from our award-winning appraisal team, we deep dive into some of the final positions from the past year. Regional Jets Top Performer: Embraer E175LR With the new generation Embraer E175-E2 still struggling to lock in any substantial orders from US carriers, and with most of the in-service regional fleet still being relatively young, the E175LR has been allowed to thrive almost unimpeded. Around 90% of the active fleet of E175LR operates in North America, where the E175-E2 has struggled to sell due to the scope clause dynamics in pilot contracts. Market Values for the Embraer E175LR have increased by a modest 3.5% in 2023, which can be attributed to the increased level of trading in the secondary market, as well as the aircraft type attracting new orders. While Embraer estimates its production to last until at least 2030, the OEM is already planning to increase production levels to meet the rising demand for capacity. Operators in emerging markets such as Africa and Asia are turning to the E175LR and putting faith in the aircraft for the establishment of their networks. For these reasons, the E175LR is our pick for the top regional jet performer in 2023. Biggest Underperformer: Bombardier CRJ-200LR Many large regional jet aircraft types have shown a strong value performance over the last year with recovering passenger demand; however, this value performance hasn’t been seen in small regional jets. The need for small regional jets has become more obsolete over time, with many carriers across the US retiring their fleets. Many airlines are upgauging their fleet with larger capacity aircraft, such as the larger Embraer jets, which provide lower costs per seat flown. For this reason, IBA has designated the Bombardier CRJ-200LR as the biggest underperformer in the regional jet market, evidenced by a decrease in Market Values of around 14%. The more modern design of the Embraer E-Jet family has also reduced the market favourability of older CRJ aircraft. Turboprops Top Performer: ATR72-600 The top performer in the turboprop segment is the ATR72-600, which has seen an average 8% increase in values in 2023 compared to the previous year. This rise in value can be attributed to the cheap cost of passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions available for the type, coupled with the OEM facing little competition in the turboprop market - the only other viable option being the older DHC8-Q400. The interest in the aircraft type has surged over the last year, especially among airlines in search of capacity to meet the current market demand. This has led to many existing operators opting not to return their aircraft at lease maturity and instead choosing to extend leases at higher Lease Rates. Biggest Underperformer: De Havilland Canada 8-Q400 No surprises here, the DHC8-Q400 is our pick for the biggest underperformer in 2023. With values down approximately 7% compared to 2022, the aircraft type has been plagued with an oversupply that has resulted from Flybe ceasing operations for a second time. The aircraft also has very high maintenance costs, further driving down the value performance of the aircraft type. The aircraft has a relatively high percentage of its fleet stored or parked, with around 1/3 of the fleet being stored because of overdue maintenance. However, IBA has seen an increased level of trading of the type during the last quarter of 2023. With many current operators trying to distance themselves from the type the Q400 will need to establish itself in new markets, otherwise the outlook for the ageing aircraft type will remain discouraging.

ニュースと広報20Dec

2024 Aviation Market Predictions - IBA

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today published their expectations for 2024 for global aviation, examining macro-economic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airline and aircraft values.

Key Trends for Global Aviation in 2024 - The IBA Perspective

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2024年における世界の航空業界の主要動向 - IBAの見解

今年は、航空業界の明るいニュースが業界のバランスを傾けた年でした。パンデミック後の顧客需要の回復が続く中、相次ぐ金利上昇、機材供給の制約、航空エンジン問題といった新たな課題に直面しています。これまで同様、IBAチームは、洞察と専門知識を共有し、世界中のクライアントを支援いたします。この最新レポートでは、当社の専門家であるStuart Hatcher博士、Dan Taylor、Mike Yeomansが、マクロ経済要因、需給、航空会社や航空機の価値に対する課題などを検証しながら、今後の1年についての見通しを語っています。 Download the report If you have any further questions, please contact: [email protected]

ウェビナー29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

ウェビナー25Oct 2023

IBA’s Webinar: Redeliveries Revisited

Aircraft redeliveries are complex contractual transactions involving multiple stakeholders. Disputes between parties and delays can cause significant financial and legal ramifications.A thorough understanding of the process and timescales required is essential to navigating a successful redelivery.Watch IBA's asset management experts, plus guest speaker Johnny Champion from law firm Stephenson Harwood, as they share their best practice advice for redelivering aircraft and engines. Watch Here

ニュースと広報10Aug

China Airline Capacity Jumps to Almost Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer reveals that passenger ASKs from Chinese operators were trending at 96% of 2019 levels in July 2023, a strong increase from 89% in June 2023. IBA’s leading aviation intelligence platform, IBA Insight, further shows that in July: Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 97% of pre-pandemic ASKs in July 2023, a gain of +2% compared to June 2023. In July, operators from Africa, North America, Latin America and the Middle East surpassed pre-pandemic capacity, while operators in APAC and Europe continue to lag slightly behind. APAC operator capacity has now surpassed 90% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by a strong July within the Chinese market. Assessing the current trend, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. In July 2023, there were approximately 04 million commercial passenger flights, compared to 2.82 million in June 2023, while 2.64 million flights were recorded in July 2022. Chinese operators recorded 451k commercial passenger flights in July 2023, compared to 388k in June 2023 and 296k in June 2022. There were 110 commercial aircraft deliveries in July 2023, representing a month-on-month and year-on-year variance of -24% and +34% So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45 per month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 35 per month. -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

ニュースと広報01Aug

IBA Acquires Fleetwatch to Enhance Insight Capabilities

IBA, the leading aviation market data and intelligence company, has today announced the acquisition of the Fleetwatch application from Aeromanage. Fleetwatch provides the aviation leasing and finance community with mobile device alerts, linked to aircraft flight events and status changes, using ADS-B data. The application provides enhanced visibility to key stakeholders around how aircraft are being operated, enabling proactive and reactive portfolio management, forming an integral part of their risk mitigation toolkit. Alongside IBA’s recently launched Data and News Alerting from its IBA Insight aviation intelligence platform, the Fleetwatch acquisition, and integration, further demonstrates IBA’s commitment to delivering its clients enhanced insights that can be leveraged to manage risk and drive value creation. IBA's President, Phil Seymour, says: “We are excited to be enhancing our aviation intelligence capabilities with this acquisition of Fleetwatch. It will now form an integral part of our suite of News and Alerting solutions, providing key industry stakeholders such as lessors, banks, investors and insurers with top class insights and live updates about their fleets.” Fleetwatch will provide subscribers to the IBA Insight platform with a range of information, via daily notifications, that can highlight a variety of significant aircraft use scenarios. Fleet/Aircraft Discrimination Users will be able to see if their aircraft are being over or under-utilised compared to the average. Users will also be able to track the aircraft’s flight lengths and distances and compare the average for that model at the same operator. This will enable users to assess evolving operational patterns and whether maintenance implications, such as reserve and compensation rates need to be adjusted for this, to forecast revenue scenarios in PBH (power by the hour) agreements, and to be alerted to return condition scenarios where under or overutilisation is a factor. Grounding Fleetwatch enables users such as lessors, banks and investors to see if their aircraft have been on the ground for prolonged periods, allowing them to contact the operator to enquire about any issues. Fleetwatch will alert users if their aircraft has been grounded for any more than two days, allowing aircraft owners to keep track of their leased fleets and identify any problems early. Prohibited Destinations Lessors, banks, investors and insurers can receive alerts from Fleetwatch which flag if their aircraft have entered prohibited destinations, enabling them to monitor operators’ compliance with contractual terms and any sanction restrictions. Ivan Borysenko, Senior Manager - Director at Aeromanage, said: “The insights that Fleetwatch provides will provide a significant addition to IBA’s aviation intelligence capabilities. It will give the IBA Insight platform users access to timely updates on aircraft status, allowing issues to be identified as early as possible and solutions developed.” -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

ニュースと広報26Jul

IBA’s Latest Aircraft Intelligence Underlines Surging Orders and Recovering Values

The latest Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports (AMIRs) published by IBA underline the strengthening order position and positive underlying value trend in the commercial aircraft market. The quarterly reports from the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company reveal that the Airbus A320neo family locked in the majority of the narrowbody orders at the recent Paris Air Show, with a record 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Airlines also placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the show, including around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s. New narrowbodies Data from the IBA Insight intelligence platform shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft fleet is now accelerating with over 1,100 deliveries. Parking and storage declined compared to previous quarters against a backdrop of strong demand and continued return-to-service following the earlier grounding of the type. Lease rates for the aircraft were in the mid-US$300,000 range in the second quarter, with similar lease rate performance exhibited by the Airbus A320neo. Elevated new aircraft demand was evidenced by a strong spread of orders at the Paris Air Show in June 2023, highlighting how operators looked to lock in future delivery positions for fleet growth and renewal. The Airbus A320neo family attracted the bulk of the narrowbody orders in Paris, which included a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft. Boeing also won new orders for its MAX family in the second quarter, with lessor Avolon placing an order for 40 MAX 8s at the Paris Air Show. Additionally, Ryanair firmly committed to 150 MAX 10 examples, the largest variant of the MAX family, in May, plus options for a further 150. Market values of the MAX 8 and A320neo continue to converge, a trend expected to continue through the third quarter. New examples of both aircraft types are exhibiting values in the US$51.5-53.0 million range during the second quarter, with a slight, yet narrowing premium for the A320neo. IBA’s insights reveal that a strong demand, escalation in new aircraft pricing and the continued high-interest rate environment will drive further increases in values and lease rates of this asset class through the third quarter. Used narrowbodies The positive trend of value recovery continues for the used narrowbody segment as well, with the market value of the popular Boeing 737-800 continuing to trend back towards the base value. The popularity of this aircraft, both in passenger markets and the freighter conversion space, has supported this movement, which is forecast to continue into the third quarter. The competing Airbus A320ceo has had a similar trend, and whilst the aircraft was lagging in value performance last year, the recovery relative to its peer reported in the first quarter has continued to manifest. The used narrowbody market is proving to be an important source of capacity for airlines to fill their Northern Hemisphere summer schedules, with deliveries of new aircraft remaining subdued. Although A320ceo values are recovering, the 737-800 retains a premium, with a 10-year-old example of the former residing below US$20 million in the second quarter, compared to the 737-800 which exhibited values in the low US$20 million range. Feedback from the market suggests a notable uptick in lease rates, supported by competition between airlines to take delivery of available assets. This can be a leading indicator of value performance, so IBA adopts a positive value outlook for this sector of the narrowbody market through 2023. New widebodies IBA’s data shows that new widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo, are benefitting from the recovering long-haul markets post-Covid and the slow supply of new aircraft from the OEMs. To capitalise on this long-term recovery, airlines placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show in June. Customers committed to around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s, with the 787-9 and Airbus A350-1000 proving to be the most popular variants. The 787-9 has received the strongest demand throughout the 787 programme, as the demand has shifted materially from the -8 to the -9 throughout. Likewise, the A350-900 has seen the most demand in its family, with orders approaching 800 and deliveries rising towards 500. Recent order activity appears to be concentrated on the larger A350-1000 variant. While it is yet unclear whether this will develop into a longer-term trend, a strong operator base, attractive payload range capability and a large Boeing 777-300ER fleet of over 800 aircraft in need of longer-term replacement suggest it might. This is particularly true as the entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9 is not due until 2025. Data from IBA Insight shows the market values of the new widebody class continue to recover through the second quarter, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2023. New Airbus A350-900 aircraft values in quarter two were around US$150 million depending on specification, whilst the value of a new A350-1000 approached US$170 million. The Boeing 787-10 attracted values approaching US$160 million for a new aircraft, whilst the mid-size 787-9 was valued in the low-US$140 millions. Used widebodies The mid-life widebody market also benefited from the continued resurgence in long-haul travel. Whilst IBA has yet to see a full recovery in international traffic to pre-pandemic levels, supply chains and labour shortages have shifted a focus to retaining existing fleets, reactivating stored aircraft and bringing in previous-generation aircraft to add capacity. Although storage and parking levels of the Airbus A330ceo family appear relatively high at over 20% of the fleet, there is demand for aircraft in good maintenance condition. Demand for Airbus A330-300 passenger to freighter conversions, combined with rebounding passenger demand, has improved the outlook for values and lease rates. A 10-year-old A330-300 aircraft in half-life condition attracted a market value in the second quarter approaching US$20 million and lease rates in the low-US$200,000 per month range. The Boeing 777-300ER is a beneficiary of the recovery in traffic between Europe and Asia and the steady weekly growth in long-haul country pairs. Lease placements more than doubled in the second quarter, with flag carriers including Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines taking aircraft on lease. Such improved demand, set against a backdrop of continued lease extensions amongst key operators creates a promising outlook for values and lease rates through quarter three. In the second quarter, a five-year-old Boeing 777-300ER was valued at around US$61 million in half-life condition, whilst a typical 10-year-old aircraft was in the low- to mid-US$30 million range. As well as this, Boeing 777-300ER lease rates were around US$350,000 per month. However, some lease extensions were observed at higher rates. Freighters The data in IBA’s AMIRs also reveal insights into the freighter market. IBA previously reported that the value performance of the Airbus A330‑300P2F has continued to show resilience, despite a softening cargo market. A backdrop of increasing feedstock pricing and declining supply is contributing to this trend. IBA continues to observe aircraft being acquired with conversion in mind, with a 2012 vintage example acquired in the second quarter for conversion and operation with DHL. A330-300P2F aircraft in the 2007 to 2013 vintage range attracted a Market Value in the mid‑US$30 million to mid-US$40 million range in quarter two. Despite the dwindling feedstock and strategic move towards the newer A330 conversion products by some of the major operators, including DHL and Amazon, conversions of passenger Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to freighters continued at IAI Bedek’s Tel Aviv conversion facility in the second quarter. Half-life market values in the mid-to high-US$20 million range could be achieved in quarter two for recently converted aircraft with mid-2000 vintages. Lease rates in the second quarter were broadly in the mid-to high-US$200,000 per month range. In the factory freighter market, the 777F continues as the only OEM in-production option and is enjoying stable value and lease rate performance. New aircraft in quarter two attracted a market value in the high-US$150 million to low-US$160 million range. Monthly lease rates were between US$1.25 and US$1.35 million depending on credit and lease terms. Continued strengthening in the passenger 777-300ER market should keep feedstock in tight supply and limit the pace of conversion. With the A350F still four years away and the 777-8F longer still, the Boeing 777F should continue to enjoy a positive outlook over the coming years. - ENDS - Note to Editors Copies of IBA’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports are available to be used upon request. While data and insights may be re-used if credited to IBA, the report may not be copied or re-produced in full. To request a copy of the latest AMIR and EMIR (Engine Market Intelligence Reports) reports, click here. About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

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Global Airline Passenger Capacity to Surpass 2019 Levels in October, IBA Predicts

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer predicts that global passenger ASKs (available seat kilometres) will surpass 2019 levels by October 2023, having reached 95% of pre-pandemic ASKs in June 2023.

ニュースと広報06Jul

IBA Enhances Insight Intelligence Platform with Alerting and News Functionality

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has launched a range of enhancements for its IBA Insight platform with new alerting functions, and industry news delivered in partnership with Aviator. Global aviation news is now available to IBA Insight subscribers, covering all aspects of the industry including orders and deliveries, airline earnings, route announcements, start-ups, failures, financing and transactions, ESG and more. IBA has also introduced Alerting to IBA Insight, which allows users to create bespoke alerts based on news and also database changes such as orders, events, statuses and organisation changes. With the ability to set these alerts on a daily, weekly or monthly interval, users will receive emails with downloadable links which contain articles and data linked to the specified alert. Order alerts allow users to understand when new aircraft orders are placed. Users can filter these alerts by aircraft family, types, models or by operators. Event alerts give users the ability to monitor significant events for an aircraft type or airline. The scope of this alerting feature is diverse, ranging from deliveries, lease starts and ends, to damage and aircraft retirement. Additionally, users now have the option of Status alerts. This allows users to stay up to date with changes to the operational status of aircraft they have an interest in such as which assets have returned to service from storage, and which aircraft have moved from active service to parked. Looking more widely at organisations, users can now create alerts based on organisation changes for an aircraft. This can be changes in the aircraft owner, manager, or operator. This enables users to keep track of which aircraft are being transacted, and the operational and financial organisations involved. Nick Stafford, Product Development and Digital Transformation Director at IBA, said: “We are always looking for new ways to ensure our users get the context and data they need to make effective decisions. IBA Insight now allows you to not only access actionable insights on the platform, but also be proactively alerted to industry movements through news and data alerting every day.” More information on IBA Insight and IBA NetZero is available here. -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

記事

Paris Air Show round-up: $72.4bn total, with most firm orders ever

パリ航空ショー：総額724億ドル、過去最大の受注獲得パリ航空ショーは、過去2回とも、平日は閑散としていたことで知られる一方で、今回月曜日の遅くまで目立った取引がないとは誰も予想していませんでした。この静けさを打ち破ったのは、インディゴからの500機の大規模な発注でした。この静けさを打ち破ったのは、インディゴからの500機の大規模な発注でした。インディゴは翌日、470機の発注発を確定しました。この週は大量発注の噂で持ちきりだったため、IBAは合計で2,000機を超えると予想していました。その予想には届かなかったのですが、トルコ航空が噂されていた600機の発注を確約していれば、予測していた数字に近づいていたでしょう！この記事の執筆、金曜日の昼休み時点で、会社、MOU、LOI、オプションを含む総注文は1,303機に達し、IBAの2023年現在市場価値に基づくと724億ドルに相当します。これは印象的な総計であり、これ以上の総計を記録したのは2013年だけです。さらに興味深いのは、1,160機（89％）が確定発注であり、これは過去最高です。受注が確定することは、納入前支払い（PDP）を確保するだけでなく、長期的な信頼性という点で、プログラムにとって朗報です。大量の注文により、オペレータはより有利な価格を要求することができますが、OEM はリスクの高い取引でより高い PDP を要求することで利益を得ることができる場合もあります。事業者は、供給遅延の環境下で納入枠を確保するために注文を固めているようです。しかし、このような規模の注文になると、現地市場がその成長に対応できるかどうかという疑問が生じます。これは、最も多くの注文を行っている 2つの航空会社が同じ国にある場合に特に当てはまります。 Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence インドの航空会社が予想通り受注を独占月曜日に行われたエアバスの記者会見では、インディゴ向けにエアバスA320ファミリー航空機を新たに500機発注することが発表されました。数値的に、これは火曜日に確定したエアインディアの470機の発注を上回り、ボーイング社とエアバス社の発表がほぼ同時に行われ、どちらかがより大きく報道されることを避けました。また、インディゴはすでに485機の航空機を発注済みであり、新たな総発注数は1,000機のラインにわずかに届いていないことも注目に値します。IBAはこの新たな注文を280億ドルと評価しています。数値的には劣るものの、IBAは、エアインディアの受注額を331億ドルと評価しています。この差は、エアインディアがワイドボディ機も発注していることに起因します。総発注数は、ボーイング（737 MAXを 190機、787 を20機、777X を10機）の220機に、エアバス（A320neos を140機、A321neos を70機、A350 を40機）を加えたものでした。ボーイングは、さらに 50 機の 737 MAX と 20 機の 787 を追加するオプションもあり、発注の合計は 540 機になります。インディゴのエアバスへの顧客ロイヤリティとは異なり、この発注は2つの大手OEMに分かれており、インドのフラッグ・キャリアとその現在および将来の子会社の航空機が非常に複雑であることを反映しています。ワイドボディ機の発注を含めることで、同航空の圧倒的な国際線市場シェア（2023年のシェアはインディゴの10.7％に対し27.8％）が確固たるものになるでしょう。しかし、国内市場シェアではインディゴに大きく遅れをとっています（インディゴの57.5％に対し26.6％）。アボロンが貸主をリード注文の規模を考えると、参加者がたくさんいると思われるのも無理はありません。発注の規模からして、多くの参加者がいると思われても仕方がないでしょう。運航会社では、ライアンエアーがショーの前に150機の大量発注をしたにもかかわらず、航空会社の中では西ヨーロッパ人の欠席が目立ちました。貸主側も同様でした。アボロンの737型機40機とA330型機20機の発注、そして80基のLEAPエンジンの契約が、唯一の大規模な取引でした。興味深いことに、アボロンの現在の航空機に対するアボロンの発注機数の比率は、エア・リース・コーポレーション（ALC）のような有名な投機的貸手と同様に、同等に近づきつつあります。航空機供給がボトルネックになっている場合、貸手はリースのレンタル価格をより細かく制御できます。これは、複数の貸手からセール・アンド・リースバックの提案を受ける運航会社と比較した場合です。もちろん、この関係は供給過剰時には逆転します。A330は2026年から2029年にかけて納入され、ナローボディは2030年代に納入される見込みです。そのころの市場がどうなっているかわからないので、これらの発注は純粋に投機的なものです。 Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence エアバス、ボーイングを圧倒今週は多くのOEMにとって成功を収め、デ・ハビランド社の航空機発注は49機、エンブラエル社は28機と新型コロナウイルス感染症以前の水準から増加しました。しかし、エアバスとボーイングの間にはかなり大きな差がありました。先に述べたように、インディゴはA320ファミリーの航空機のみを運航しており、ナローボディではエアバスが大きくリードしています。エアバスはプレショーの受注残総数でボーイングの7,069機に対し、8,546機と、ショー前にすでにリードしていました。A320neoと737 MAXだけで見ると、エアバスのアドバンテージは1,300機でした。これで差はさらに広くなります。ショーでは、エアバスの受注総数は846件でした。これはボーイングの356件の倍以上です。特に興味深いのは、今年はエアバスがワイドボディの受注を72機獲得し、ボーイングの40機（オプションの20機を除く）上回ったことです。ボーイングは過去10年のうち8年間、ワイドボディの受注でエアバスを上回っていました。ボーイングは、777Xの生産遅延が転機を引き起こさないことを願っていることでしょう。 Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence This IBA Weekly was written by: Neil FraserHead of Consulting Neil FraserManager - Airline Analysis

記事

Indigo Order Paris Air Show 2023

IndiGo’s order of 500 aircraft has notably eclipsed Air India’s 470 aircraft order made only in February this year (although there was also an option for 70 aircraft). When added to IndiGo's substantial existing backlog, questions will arise whether the Indian market can accommodate this number of aircraft.

記事

IBA Insight Shows Middle East Airlines Surpassing Pre-Pandemic Capacity

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer shows that Middle Eastern operators surpassed pre-pandemic capacity with ASKs at 103% in May 2023 compared to 2019 levels.

Paris Air Show returns in June 2023 after a four year break.

記事

IBA's predictions for Paris Air Show 2023

IBA's Chief Economist, Dr. Stuart Hatcher reveals his insights and sales predictions for The Paris Air Show 2023.

ウェビナー25May 2023

IBA Insight: What is the Outlook for eVTOL Values?

In the third edition of our IBA Insight series, Mike Yeomans, Denesz Thiyagarajan and Rami Abdel Aziz provided an overview of the eVTOL market, their top due diligence advice and the latest insight on residual values. Watch on Demand It’s estimated that 200 companies are currently working to manufacture electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs). So, what is the market demand for these new technologies, and what will the assets be worth? Topics covered will include: Market overview Development update and entry-into-service timelines Valuation drivers and dynamics Valuation case studies for selected eVTOL types Watch on Demand If you have any further questions, please get in touch with [email protected].

ウェビナー26Apr 2023

IBA's Webinar: ESG in Aviation - What You Need To Know

How can the aviation industry, and more specifically aviation finance, tackle the existential challenges of ESG regulations? What are the ESG regulations and elements that you should be focusing on as an airline and a lessor? We hosted our latest webinar 'ESG in Aviation - What You Need to Know'. Our ESG experts Jeni Stanley & Danny Thurtle provided a comprehensive update on the latest ESG regulations and how they are, and will impact the aviation industry going forwards. Click here to watch the recording

Regional aircraft engine values face turbulence in early 2023

記事

Turbulence ahead for some regional aircraft engines, whilst others continue to outperform the market.

IBA's experts examine the latest trends in regional engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

価値

イベント17Apr

IBA's Engines Explained: The Outlook

Join us for the second session in IBA’s webinar series, Engines Explained. Listen in to hear from our award-winning team as they provide a comprehensive update on the engine market and the outlook for 2024 and beyond. The webinar Stay up-to-date with the latest updates on engine value and lease rate performance, gain insights into spare engine supply and demand, and access details on IBA’s shop visit forecast. Our engine specialists will provide valuable insights on the challenges faced by the industry and the key trends you need to be watching out for. This webinar is a must-attend for anyone in the aviation community with a specific interest in engines. Register Here Over the hour, our experts will discuss: The latest on engine value and lease rate performance – by asset class and generation Spare engine supply and demand IBA’s shop visit forecast The outlook for 2024 and beyond – what you need to be aware of Plus, plenty of time for Q&A, ask us anything! When Should You Tune In? To cater for our global audiences, we are running two sessions: Wednesday 17th April at 08:00 GMT +1 and Thursday 18th at 15:00 GMT +1 The Panel Mike YeomansDirector - Valuations & Consulting, ISTAT Certified Senior AppraiserKane RayHead of General Aviation & Aftermarket, ISTAT Certified AppraiserJamie DaveyManager - Engines & Parts Register Here

記事

UK Airport Slot Reform - What does it mean for airlines?

The UK's Department for Transport (DfT) aims to overhaul the slot allocation system to foster a fairer and more competitive airline market, ultimately maximising passenger value. Key issues include outdated criteria for allocating slots, insufficient support for new entrants, opaque decision-making processes, and limited transparency in slot trading. Incumbents holding onto slots and lack of flexibility in regulations exacerbate the problem. With a projected 52% increase in terminal passengers by 2050, reform is urgently needed to optimize limited slot capacity and ensure fair market practices. In this short analysis, William McClintock, Manager - Consulting, has distilled the DfT's 99-page proposal into the key points airlines need to be aware of to understand how slot reforms may affect you and your business, including: Why does the UK slot allocation system need reform? What are the DfT’s Airport Slot Reform objectives? What is IBA’s view on the slot reform and valuation impact? Download now For any further questions, please contact our team.

ウェビナー29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

ウェビナー20Sep 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar, September 2023

Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand

IBA Forecasts Oversupply of 737-800 P2f Aircraft

ニュースと広報08Aug

IBAは737-800 P2F航空機の供給過剰を予測

ウェビナー03Aug 2023

IBA Insight: How are Freighter Values Performing?

The final episode of our IBA Insight webinar series. Over the past four months, IBA’s award-winning Valuations team have been sharing their latest intelligence on aviation values across all major asset types, engines, eVTOLs and helicopters. How do macroeconomic factors influence the narrowbody and widebody freighter markets? IBA’s intelligence discloses weakening cargo load factors and air freight yields. It summarises the active freighter fleet and market supply and demand, highlighting the 737-800’s enduring domination of narrowbody conversions with a potential risk of oversupply. The 767-300ER’s lead will continue for at least 3 years until the A330 takes over. Finally, IBA shares the relative performance of different conversion programmes and anticipated values and lease rate trends for popular freighter types. Watch on Demand

ニュースと広報29Jun

IBA Forecasts Positive Outlook For Helicopter Market

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, outlined a largely positive outlook for the helicopter market in a webinar earlier this week. IBA’s expert panel signposted a number of key positive factors for the market including expected continued growth in helicopter leasing, the easing of supply chain issues, growth opportunities in sectors such as EMS (Emergency Medical Services),offshore and wind farms, and the successful introduction and growth of the super medium helicopter category. Looking at the market overall, IBA lists its addressable value at more than US$55 billion, with a current global fleet of over 22,000 ‘western built’ turbine helicopters. Deliveries of these types have averaged around 500 per year in recent years, with a fall to under 500 in 2022 due to supply chain issues. IBA forecasts that this will recover to 475 - 525 airframes in 2023. Lease penetration is highest in Europe and North America, followed by Asia and South America, with the Leonardo AW139 and the Sikorsky S-92A leading the leasing market. The largest market segment is light helicopters, which remain central to EMS, utility and short-range transport missions. The Airbus H125 and H145, and the Bell 407, are among the most popular models in this category, with an average of 350 annual deliveries for the past five years. IBA estimates up to 360 light helicopters will be delivered in 2023. The medium helicopter fleet reached around 3,800 aircraft by the middle of 2023, used for a variety of functions including EMS, Search and Rescue (SAR) and offshore operations. The most popular aircraft in this category are the Leonardo AW139 and AW169, the Bell 412 and the Airbus H155. IBA forecasts that deliveries will significantly increase in 2023 to as many as 75 helicopters, compared to around 55 in 2022. The newer super medium category, which was initiated in 2013-14 with the introduction of the Leonardo AW189 and Airbus H175, is seen by many as the replacement for existing heavy helicopters given their more compelling operating economics. IBA estimates that up to 10 aircraft of this size will be delivered in 2023. The heavy helicopter segment is dominated by the Airbus H225 and Sikorsky S-92 families. It has experienced very low delivery rates since 2016, but is now experiencing a revival in the used market driven by higher oil prices and increased level of offshore activity. However, delivery rates for the segment are still very modest, with IBA estimating up to four in 2023. IBA forecasts burgeoning growth in a number of key helicopter operating sectors, led by EMS which it estimates will grow from 14% to 19% of the market over the next decade. Offshore operations, taking into account the fast-growing offshore and wind farm sector, are forecast to increase from 4% to 7%, and firefighting from 2% to 3%. All helicopter segments have seen a recovery in values post pandemic, but the heavy segment is lagging behind. The market values of the light, medium and super medium categories are at 115%, 111% and 106% respectively of Base Values, with IBA predicting further value growth for all in 2023 and 2024. However, heavy helicopters are currently at 80% of Base Values with an uncertain future outlook. Lease rates have also recovered significantly, but with the same size category trends. Light helicopter lease rates are now at 112% of 2019 levels, with medium and super mediums both at 110%, and with further growth forecast by IBA for 2023 and 2024. Much like the value outlook, the near-term future of heavy helicopter lease rates remains uncertain and will be heavily influenced by movements in oil price. Should oil remain at current levels or increase, the outlook for heavy helicopter lease rates will remain positive. - ENDS - About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, and most recently winning the Sustainable Technology award for its Carbon Emissions Calculator, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

ウェビナー29Jun 2023

IBA Insight: How are helicopter values performing?

IBA’s Mike Yeomans and Rami Abdel Aziz gave a comprehensive overview of the helicopter market and the latest insights on value performance and trends. Click here to watch on demand

記事

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

“My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes. My son will drive a car. My grandson will ride a camel.” This contested quote relates to the desire to diversify away from an oil-export-dominant economy. Following Qatar and the UAE, it’s now a focus for Saudi Arabia. Aside from the emergence of Avilease last year with the announcement of a 12-aircraft SLB with flynas, the Saudi Public Investment Fund also launched Riyadh Air this week. This was closely followed by the $37Bn list price order for up to 121 x 787-9s to be split between the airline and Saudia. That’s a lot of capacity, and links closely with the Saudi vision to carry 330m passengers by the end of the decade (with close to a third visiting the country). Having spent much of my childhood in Riyadh and witnessing the speed of development, I have no doubt that they can succeed. Might this trigger a Middle Eastern power play whereby Emirates, Etihad and Qatar fight against the Saudi growth to destabilise the profitability for European and Asian carriers hoping to recapture market share? The combined carriers already have 465 passenger aircraft in active service, 95 parked or in storage, and 307 on backlog, I sense that, given their deep pockets, growth will proceed at any cost.

Singapore Airlines Plane on the run way taking off

記事

New generation widebody lease rates are rising

New generation widebody lease rates are rising with some lag and more subdued value gains, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour,  Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in our recent webinar. The latest trends in new generation widebody aircraft values and lease rates. Source: IBA Insight. The Airbus A350-900 was at US$925,000 per-month in January 2021 with an increase to US$954,000 per-month in January 2023. We predict this will have risen to US$1,007,000 per-month by July 2023.   Base value movements are more varied for new generation widebody aircraft. The Boeing 7879, 787-10, Airbus A350-900 and A350-1000 continue to grow, whereas the 787-8 and A330-900 fell between 2019 and 2022 (but stabilised into 2023). The latest mid-life widebody aircraft value and lease rate trends. Source: IBA Insight The base value decline for mid-life widebody aircraft has eased with the prospect of some market value recovery through the first half of 2023. A 12-year-old A330-300 was valued at US$20.04 million in 2022, and is predicted to drop to US$19.967 million in 2023. Some mid-life widebody lease rates are increasing, with a 12-year-old B777-300ER sitting at US$314,000 per-month in October 2022 and predicted to rise to US$350,000 per-month by July 2023.  Don’t miss our latest webinars Stay tuned for our forthcoming webinars covering new and existing asset classes. In the coming months we be taking a deep dive into value trends for Engines, EVTOLs, business jets, helicopters, and freighters. Follow us on LinkedIn for updates on our next webinar.  Discover our market-leading aircraft valuations services IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.  Find out more about IBA Valuations

記事

Narrowbody aircraft values set to climb through 2023

New narrowbody aircraft base values rose beyond the long-term trend into 2023, and lease rates are forecast to climb further this year, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in the first of our new series of valuations webinars.

ウェビナー22Feb 2023

IBA Insight: How are major asset values performing?

IBA’s award-winning Valuations team shared their latest insights on aircraft values across all major asset types in our new webinar series. In our first edition, Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald will reveal key trends across narrowbody and widebody aircraft, regional jets and turboprops, and freighters. Watch the recording

ウェビナー13Jan 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar January 2023

Join IBA for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.

An airplane wing with blue sky and clouds in the background

記事

Key Trends for Global Aviation in 2023 - The IBA Perspective

In this short report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Geoff van Klaveren and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values.

ウェビナー29Nov 2022

Ask the Appraiser: How are Widebody Aircraft Values Performing?

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes.

A man in a high visibility jacket and ear defenders stands in front of a Dash 8 Q400 turboprop aircraft with a grey sky in the background

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Ask the Appraiser - How are Regional Jet and Turboprop aircraft values performing?

In the second edition of our ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Phil Seymour examine the trajectory of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, identifying the hottest trends and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the market.

ウェビナー10Nov 2022

Ask the Appraiser: How are Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values Performing?

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the first of the series, join our experts Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald for an overview of the freighter market. Watch the webinar

An orange, red and white COMAC ARJ21 aircraft lifting off from a runway

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Ask the Appraiser - valuing the COMAC ARJ21

Our experts shine a light on the value and lease rate outlook for the ARJ21 and look at the wider market outlook for the Chinese regional jet.

A boeing 747-400 freighter aircraft on takeoff with a grey sky behind

記事

Ask the Appraiser: An Overview of the Freighter Market

In the first in our series of ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans examined the trajectory of freighter values, identified the hottest trends in P2F conversions, and explored the impact of macroeconomic factors on the air cargo market.

ウェビナー03Nov 2022

Ask the Appraiser: Trajectory of Freighter Values

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the first of the series, join our experts Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald for an overview of the freighter market. Watch the recording Topics covered include: The trajectory of freighter values and lease rates The state of supply and demand in air cargo The landscape for P2F conversions What's happening in the macro-economic environment, and the impacts on the sector If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch with Mike Yeomans. The data used in this webinar is from IBA Insight, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. IBA Insight combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.

環境

記事

IBA's Sustainability Watch: April 2024

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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Navigating Aviation Emission Regulations

Written by IBA's ESG Consulting team. The aviation industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes to reduce carbon emissions and transition towards sustainability. In the ever-evolving landscape, three major directives stand out for their potential to shape the industry's future: the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and Refuel EU. These regulations, while complex, offer significant opportunities for the aviation sector to address its environmental impact and transition towards a more sustainable future. EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) From Cap-and-Trade to Carbon Cost The EU ETS, a cornerstone of European environmental policy, operates on a cap-and-trade system, wherein airlines must surrender allowances for their carbon emissions. Over the years, the EU ETS has undergone gradual refinement to strengthen its effectiveness in curbing aviation carbon emissions. One notable development is the gradual reduction of allowances now equating to the right to emit one ton of CO2 annually. From 2026, airlines will face the full cost of emitting carbon, as free allowances taper down to zero on intra-EU flights where the cap has been steadily above 80% since 2012. This shift is anticipated to impact airlines' bottom lines significantly, potentially leading to increased ticket prices. Morgan Stanley predicts a substantial rise in carbon costs, reaching €120 in 2027 and €135 per tonne by 2030. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about including non-CO2 emissions in the ETS framework, which could further alter operational dynamics within the industry. CORSIA A Global Offset Mandate Designed to offset international flight emissions, CORSIA was developed under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and sets baseline levels for emissions exceeding 85% of 2020 levels. While still in the voluntary phase, all regions have breached the baseline as of the start of this year. The mandatory phase of CORSIA is set to begin in 2027, with individual airlines becoming accountable for their emissions by 2030. The convergence of CORSIA and EU ETS makes European carriers unique, facing heightened offset obligations. While CORSIA aims to create a unified approach to offsetting aviation emissions on a global scale, the EU ETS focuses specifically on regulating emissions within the European Union. This disparity of both frameworks may lead to increased costs for airlines operating within the EU, prompting questions about the distribution of financial burdens in the industry. Refuel EU Paving the Way for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Part of the Fit for 55 package, and only just legislated in October 2023, Refuel EU’s primary goal is to address the EU's target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 under the three-strand regulation. The first strand aims to reduce tankering by mandating 90% of yearly fuel must be picked up at an EU airport. This ensures that fuel is being picked up when required rather than at a cheaper price so airlines are not carrying extra weight by picking up cheaper fuel in countries outside of the EU. The second strand of Refuel EU promotes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) usage along with requirements for aviation fuel suppliers to blend 2% SAF and kerosene from 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050. IATA anticipates a surge in global SAF production, reaching 0.5% of global fuel consumption this year. For more on how SAF reduces aviation emissions and its viability, read here. The third and final strand is the need for airports to develop the infrastructure needed to support SAF delivery detailed in the second strand. This is expected to be a major focus area for airlines this year. The implementation of Refuel EU underscores a global shift towards sustainability, with significant progress observed in SAF production and distribution, particularly in the APAC region. Singapore has revealed its SAF blending objectives slated for implementation in 2026, alongside Airbus and Total Energy's collaboration to establish a sustainable hub in the country. Meanwhile, in Australia, LanzaJet has unveiled its partnership with Jet Zero, aiming to establish the first Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) plant in the region, converting ethanol into SAF. Partnerships and agreements, such as those between IAG and Twelve, signal increasing momentum towards incorporating SAF into aviation operations. Towards Net Zero: A Collective Effort While these regulations mark significant strides towards achieving net-zero aviation emissions by 2050, challenges remain. The aviation industry must maintain momentum through sustained collaboration and innovation. This includes securing off-take agreements for SAF, investing in production infrastructure, and advocating for supportive government policies. Crucially, achieving net-zero emissions requires collective action across all sectors of the industry. From major airlines to smaller carriers, everyone must play a role in driving sustainability initiatives forward. By embracing this collective responsibility and working in tandem with policymakers, energy suppliers, and financial institutions, the aviation sector can pave the way towards a greener future.

ウェビナー22Mar 2024

IBA’s Webinar: A Progress Update – The Journey to Net Zero

In our latest aviation ESG update webinar of 2024, IBA President Phil Seymour, along with Jeni Stanley, ESG - Manager, and industry guest speaker Haldane Dodd from the Air Transport Action Group examined the latest regulations, industry developments, and global influences and highlight the critical issues on the journey to decarbonise aviation. Summary Over the hour, our panel discussed the industry's climate goals, including reducing emissions by half of 2005 levels by 2050, and the steps outlined in the Waypoint 2050 report to achieve this. The role of governments and the financial community in achieving these goals was also discussed, with an estimated $1.5 trillion needed in capital investment for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production over the next 25 years. The webinar also touched on the impact of political changes and regulations on the industry, the potential impact on ticket prices, and the industry's efforts towards sustainability, including the use of SAF and future technology pathways such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and hydrogen propulsion. Despite these efforts, a poll revealed that most participants believe the industry will not meet the net zero target by 2050. "The challenge of reaching net zero by 2050 requires continuous effort from all parts of the sector, not just the big airlines. The industry is exploring future technology pathways such as Carbon Capture and Storage and hydrogen propulsion. However, the industry also needs the support of governments, the energy industry, and the finance industry to achieve its sustainability goals." The webinar also reintroduced our ESG Consulting team and IBA NetZero Reporting, the latest addition to IBA NetZero for reporting Scope 3 aviation emissions. Click the button below to watch on-demand Watch On-demand

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IBA's Sustainability Watch: March 2024

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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IBA's Sustainability Watch: February 2024

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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IBA's Sustainability Watch - December 2023

Welcome to IBA’s December Sustainability Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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IBA's Sustainability Watch - November 2023

Welcome to IBA’s November Sustainability Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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What Does Virgin Atlantic’s 100% SAF Transatlantic Flight Mean for Net Zero?

The tangible benefits may lie beneath the headline Today, Tuesday, 28th of November 2023 will go down as a milestone for commercial aviation on the path to NetZero. At 11:30 AM GMT, Virgin Atlantic will finally operate a commercial transatlantic flight (VS100) from London Heathrow (LHR) to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) that’s been over a year in the making. The airline was awarded the project, along with £1m in funding, in late 2022 by the UK Government to join forces with industry stakeholders and operate the world’s first net zero commercial transatlantic flight. The primary lever of achieving this feat is the use of 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for both engines of Virgin Atlantic’s 787 Dreamliner, a practice not yet certified for commercial use. The UK Government states that the negative production emissions of SAF can save up to 70% of the lifecycle impact compared to Jet-A, meaning the flight will also be reliant on investment in out-of-sector carbon removals to reach net zero. According to IBA NetZero's commercial aviation carbon calculator, a flight between LHR and JFK on a Boeing 787-9 usually emits around 128 tCO2e, inclusive of the upstream emissions associated with jet fuel production. Using the lifecycle benefit of SAF and carbon removals, this project aims to showcase the options open to long-haul aviation to decarbonise. How did we get here? The 100% SAF nature of the flight represents an impressive feat of stakeholder collaboration, with Boeing and Rolls Royce involved in the physical testing and certification necessary, and the University of Sheffield and ICF involved in calculating a credible value of the lifecycle emissions of the flight. 88% of the 60 tonnes of SAF required is sourced from Air BP, who have produced hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) SAF from used cooking oil in Europe, with the remaining 12% a synthetic aromatic fuel made from corn starch by a US-based producer. While the flight will serve a useful purpose in testing a blend of two SAF types, questions will be raised about the sustainability of feedstock sourcing, considering the lack of local and global availability of supply to produce HEFA and the contentious sustainability credentials of first-generation biofuels, where a crop is grown and immediately used for fuel production. The latter of which is so contentious, it’s not recognised as a supported pathway in the UK and Europe. What does this mean for the industry? Despite the room for discussion over the production of the SAF involved, once VS100 takes off, the focus will switch to a study of the non-CO2 emissions generated. Imperial College London and the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) will undertake an experiment to determine the generation of ice crystals, and contrails, from this new blend of fuels. Furthering aviation’s understanding of its non-CO2 emissions has come to the forefront in recent years, and while significant progress has been made, the question remains as to whether SAF can show a positive impact on the generation of contrails. The outcomes of this study, along with the industry-galvanising showpiece of the world’s first net zero transatlantic flight, will serve as tangible benefits generated. But it will be long after VS100 touches down at JFK that the industry reaps the rewards. Learn more about IBA ESG Consulting Cover image: Virgin Atlantic Interested in hearing more from our ESG Consulting team? Listen to our recent podcast episode "The Latest in Aviation ESG" below, featuring Phil Seymour and Jeni Stanley.

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: The Latest in Aviation ESG

Welcome to The Aviation Conversation. In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour and Jeni Stanley explore recent trends in aviation ESG and share their insights on the latest industry updates.Learn more about IBA NetZero, our commercial aviation carbon calculator.Learn more about IBA Group's aviation ESG consulting services.

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IBA Sustainability Watch - September 2023

Welcome to IBA’s September Sustainability Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions, and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel: How Sustainable Is It Really?

To tackle emissions from the aviation industry, at present, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a frequently discussed and relied upon prospect. While research shows SAF is a ‘win’ in theory, there are questions over the supposedly ‘sustainable’ alternatives that are often overlooked.

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成長する航空業界のサステナビリティにかんする最新ニュース

IBA サステナビリティ・ウォッチへようこそ 2023年8月環境・社会・ガバナンス（ESG）問題は、今や航空投資における重要なリスクと見なされており、世界中の当局が透明性の向上と報告基準の厳格化を求めている。ネット・ゼロ・エミッションへの道筋と、それが航空業界全体のすべての主要企業に与える現実的な影響を理解することが、かつてないほど重要になっています。IBAのESGコンサルティングチームは毎月、成長し続ける航空業界のサステナビリティにかんする重要な洞察と最新ニュースをお伝えします。

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マイレージ課税

Danny Thurtle, Aviation Analyst - ESG [email protected] 航空需要分析航空旅客需要の社会経済的な集中傾向をめぐる主張は広まっています。2017～18年の北米では、人口の19%が年間4便以上のフライトを利用しており、同地域の全フライトの実に82%を占めました[1]。マイレージ課税（FFL）を支持する人々が提唱する主張は、定期的に飛行機を利用する少数の人々が、航空機の排出ガスに与える不釣り合いな影響の代価を支払わなければならないというものです。

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IBA Sustainability Watch - July 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: ESG Regulation and the Impact on Aviation

In this third edition of our popular Aviation Conversation series, IBA's Phil Seymour, Jeni Stanley and Danny Thurtle discuss the challenges faced by the aviation industry as it adapts to the ever changing world of ESG regulations and the road to carbon net zero. Find out more about IBA Group's ESG consultancy services.

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IBA Sustainability Watch - June 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

What Does Global Temperature Rise Mean for Aviation

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地球の気温上昇は航空業界に与える影響とは？

Luisa Barnes, Aviation Analyst [email protected] 「気候変動に関する政府間パネル」（IPCC）は先日、気候変動が2015年のパリ協定で定められた抑制値である1.5℃を今後数年で突破する見通しであると報告しました。2027年までに、世界で初めて1.5℃の気温上昇が起こり、今後5年以内、1年の期間でに1.5℃を超える確率が3分の2になると警告しています。IPCC は、今後 5 年間は観測史上最も暑い期間になると予想しています。さらに、人類の活動による地球温暖化に加え、気候変動現象である「エルニーニョ」が発生し、気温を記録的に上昇させる可能性が高く、取り返しのつかない被害を避けるためには、温室効果ガスの排出削減が緊急に求められています。

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IBA Sustainability Watch - May 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team will be sharing key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

Differing Airline Exposure Levels From EU ETS and CORSIA Regulations

ニュースと広報27Apr

EU-ETSとCORSIAの規制で航空会社に与える影響量が異なる

欧州連合域内排出量取引制度（ETS）と国際民間航空機関（ICAO）の国際航空の成長スキームに関連する新しい航空規制が、特定の航空会社や航空タイプに著しく異なる影響を与えることが、航空市場情報およびコンサルティングの大手企業IBAのデータにより明らかになりました。 IBAの最新のウェビナーでは、同社の専門家が、ESG投資の主な推進力として、政府・規制の圧力、ESGのリスクと成長、消費者の意識、カタリストとしてCovid-19の4つがあることを明らかにしました。 IBAは、ESG関連法規制が航空業界に与える影響を示すために2つのケーススタディを行い、最終的には、この2つが特定の航空会社や航空会社の種類に与える影響が異なることを強調しました。最初の事例はCORSIA（国際民間航空のためのカーボン・オフセット及び削減スキーム）で、2019年排出量の85％をベースラインとした測定・報告・検証（MRV）プロセスを導入しています。すでに参加意思のあるICAO加盟国を対象としたパイロットフェーズで導入が始まっています。 IBAは、需要がパンデミック前に近い水準に戻る2024年まで、排出量が基準値を超えることはないと表明しています。しかし、免除対象国を除いて、全てのICAO加盟国に加入が義務付けられるのは2027年以降です CORSIA（国際民間航空のためのカーボン・オフセット及び削減スキーム）は世界的なスキームですが、各地域に一様に影響を与えることはないとされています。IBAネットゼロのプラットフォームデータによると、欧州のフライトネットワークの性質上、短・中距離便のかなりの部分を含む全欧州トラフィックの65%近くがCORSIA MRVの対象になっています。これに対し、北米の排出量のうち、MRVの対象となるのはわずか29％です。市場の ESG に影響を与える 2つめの事例は EU-ETS です。格安航空会社は、ネットワークとフリートの性質上、ETS の影響を受ける可能性が高くなります。たとえば、IBA ネットゼロのデータによると、ライアンエアーは合計 13.51 MtCO2 (CO2 メートルトン) を排出し、そのうち 10.24 MtCO2 が EU-ETS の対象となります。一方、フラッグキャリアやネットワークオペレーターは、その排出量の大部分がワイドボディ機による長距離路線で発生するため、欧州の炭素価格の影響を受けることはほとんどありません。その代わり、業界がベースラインに違反した場合、これらは CORSIAのオフセット義務対象となる可能性が高くなります。たとえば、ルフトハンザドイツ航空の CO2 総排出量は合計 17.82 MtCO2ですが、IBA ネットゼロが明らかにしたところでは、EU-ETSの対象となるのは 3.65 MtCO2 のみです。これらの制度を比較すると、EU-ETSの炭素価格は CORSIA のオフセットの 20 倍高く、IBA は当面この状態が続くと予測しています。この明らかな違いは、まず航空分野が 2012 年まで対象外であったにもかかわらず、EU ETS が 2005 年に策定・実施されたことに起因します。そのため、長年にわたって排出枠が余り、炭素価格が低く抑えられていました。炭素排出枠 (EUA) の価格が移行を促すのに十分な価格にまで成長したのはここ数年のことです。次に、CORSIA も同様の発展パターンを持っている可能性がありますが、国際航空はまだ CORSIA のベースラインを超えておらず、自主的なオフセット義務量は無視できる程度であることを意味します。ベースラインを超えると、認定されたオフセットプロジェクトの膨大な余剰は減少し始め、2027年に政策が義務化された際も減少し続けると予想されます。しかし、IBA は、CORSIA が EUA の価格に匹敵する可能性は低いと述べています。CORSIAの性質上、価格はオフセットプロジェクトの利用可能性と信頼性によって決定されることになります。比較すると、EUA は 1トンの炭素排出の価格を反映しており、上限が減少するにつれて価格は上昇し続けるため、スコープ 1 の排出量を積極的に削減することがより有益になります。航空規制は、EUタクソノミーの最新版に含まれることが決まっており、2024年1月から施行される予定です。これは、正しいパラメータの下では、航空への投資が「グリーン投資」になることを意味します。その結果、より多くの資金が航空業界に流入され、SAF、炭素回収、機体の更新、炭素排出を削減する新しい方法の研究への投資が可能になります。 EUタクソノミーでは、製造、リース、旅客・貨物、グランドハンドリング業務の4つの分野に分けられ、その中に含めることができるものには制限があります。さらに、リース会社や航空会社には、厳しい目標が課せられています。最も重要なのは、2028年1月から2032年12月までの間、製造された航空機は、100％SAFの混合燃料で運航することを証明しなければならないということです。

ウェビナー26Apr 2023

IBA's Webinar: ESG in Aviation - What You Need To Know

How can the aviation industry, and more specifically aviation finance, tackle the existential challenges of ESG regulations? What are the ESG regulations and elements that you should be focusing on as an airline and a lessor? We hosted our latest webinar 'ESG in Aviation - What You Need to Know'. Our ESG experts Jeni Stanley & Danny Thurtle provided a comprehensive update on the latest ESG regulations and how they are, and will impact the aviation industry going forwards. Click here to watch the recording

マーケット分析

イベント17Apr

IBA's Engines Explained: The Outlook

Join us for the second session in IBA’s webinar series, Engines Explained. Listen in to hear from our award-winning team as they provide a comprehensive update on the engine market and the outlook for 2024 and beyond. The webinar Stay up-to-date with the latest updates on engine value and lease rate performance, gain insights into spare engine supply and demand, and access details on IBA’s shop visit forecast. Our engine specialists will provide valuable insights on the challenges faced by the industry and the key trends you need to be watching out for. This webinar is a must-attend for anyone in the aviation community with a specific interest in engines. Register Here Over the hour, our experts will discuss: The latest on engine value and lease rate performance – by asset class and generation Spare engine supply and demand IBA’s shop visit forecast The outlook for 2024 and beyond – what you need to be aware of Plus, plenty of time for Q&A, ask us anything! When Should You Tune In? To cater for our global audiences, we are running two sessions: Wednesday 17th April at 08:00 GMT +1 and Thursday 18th at 15:00 GMT +1 The Panel Mike YeomansDirector - Valuations & Consulting, ISTAT Certified Senior AppraiserKane RayHead of General Aviation & Aftermarket, ISTAT Certified AppraiserJamie DaveyManager - Engines & Parts Register Here

ニュースと広報07Feb

IBA Forecasts 60% Increase in Airline Profitability in 2024

Airline industry net profit per passenger is predicted to increase by almost 60% between 2023 and 2024, according to data recently revealed by IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and advisory company.

ニュースと広報20Dec

2024 Aviation Market Predictions - IBA

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today published their expectations for 2024 for global aviation, examining macro-economic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airline and aircraft values.

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IBA's Aviation Barometer

IBA’s Aviation Barometer highlights the key trends in global aviation industry as revealed by IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform. Follow us on LinkedIn to get the latest monthly insights. What happened in November 2023? Monthly global passenger capacity recovery remains stable at 99% of pre-pandemic ASKs in November 2023, the same level seen during October 2023. In November, all markets apart from Europe and Asia Pacific were trending at or above pre-pandamic capacity. Assessing the current trend, IBA expect global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by December 2023. Overall, there were approximately 2.63 million commercial passenger flights in November 2023, compared to 2.90 million in October 2023, while 2.21 million flights were recorded in November 2022. There were 121 commercial aircraft deliveries in November 2023, representing a MoM and YoY variance of +8% and -5% respectively. So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 46/month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 31/month. What happened in October 2023? Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 99% of pre-pandemic ASKs in October 2023, a gain of +1% compared to September 2023. In October, all markets apart from Europe and Asia Pacific were trending at or above pre-pandamic capacity. Assessing the current trend, IBA expect global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by November 2023. Overall, there were approximately 2.90 million commercial passenger flights in October 2023, compared to 2.88 million in September 2023, while 2.42 million flights were recorded in October 2022. There were 103 commercial aircraft deliveries in October 2023, representing a MoM and YoY variance of 8% and 1% respectively. So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45/month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 30/month. What happened in September 2023? Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 99% of pre-pandemic ASKs in September 2023, a gain of 1% compared to August 2023. In September, all markets apart from Europe and Asia Pacific were trending at or above pre-pandemic capacity. IBA continue to expect global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. Passenger ASKs from Chinese operators were trending 3% below 2019 levels during September, a slight regress from August where ASKs exceeded pre-pandemic volumes. 434,000 commercial passenger flights were recorded by Chinese operators in September 2023, compared to 490,000 in August 2023 and 191,000 in September 2022. Overall, there were approximately 88 million commercial passenger flights in September 2023, compared to 3.08 million in August 2023, while 2.42 million flights were recorded in September 2022. Whilst there was a fall in commercial aircraft deliveries in September 2023, so far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45 per month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 31 per month. What happened in July 2023? Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 97% of pre-pandemic ASKs in July 2023, a gain of +2% compared to June 2023. Operators from Africa, North America, Latin America and the Middle East surpassed pre-pandemic capacity, while operators in APAC and Europe continue to lag slightly behind. In APAC, operator capacity has now surpassed 90% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by a strong July within the Chinese market. Assessing the current trend, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. There were approximately 3.04 million commercial passenger flights, compared to 2.82 million in June 2023, while 2.64 million flights were recorded in July 2022. Chinese operators recorded 451k commercial passenger flights in July 2023, compared to 388k in June 2023 and 296k in June 2022. There were 110 commercial aircraft deliveries in July 2023, representing a month-on-month and year-on-year variance of -24% and +34% respectively. So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45 per month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 35 per month. What happened in June 2o23? Monthly global passenger capacity reached 95% of pre-pandemic ASKs in June 2023, a fall of -1% compared to May 2023. Operators from Africa, as well as North & Latin America surpassed pre-pandamic capacity, while operators In APAC, Europe and the Middle East lag slightly behind. Assessing the current trend, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. Overall, there were approximately 2.82 million commercial passenger flights in June 2023, compared to 2.81 million in May 2023. There were 141 commercial aircraft deliveries in June 2023, representing a MoM and YoY variance of +15% and +23% respectively. June saw the highest number of new-generation narrowbody delivieries this year, with 102 aircraft shared between the neo and MAX. During H1-2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45/month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 35/month. Passenger ASKs from Chinese operators are trending at 89% of 2019 levels, a steady increase from 82% at the end of Q1-2023. There 388k commercial passenger flights were recorded by Chinese operators, compared to 397k in May 2023 and 207k in June 2022. What happened in May 2o23? Monthly global passenger capacity reached 96% of pre-pandemic ASKs in May 2023, an improvement of +1% compared to April 2023. If current trends continue, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by July 2023. There were approximately 2.81 million commercial passenger flights in May 2023, compared to 2.31 million flights in May 2022. There were 123 commercial aircraft deliveries in May 2023, representing a MoM and YoY variance of +34% and +41% respectively. As of May 2023, passenger ASKs from Chinese operators are trending at 87% of 2019 levels - a strong improvement from 44% in December 2022. What happened in April 2023? Monthly global passenger capacity reached 95% of pre-pandemic ASKs in April 2023, an improvement of +3% compared to March 2023. If current trends continue, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by July 2023. There were approximately 2.66 million commercial passenger flights in April 2023, compared to 2.08 million flights in April 2022. There were 83 commercial aircraft deliveries in April 2023, representing a MoM and YoY variance of -34% and +12% respectively. Our monthly Aviation Barometer is powered by IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform.

記事

ドバイ航空ショー 2023 開催:ワイドボディの注文がショーの大半を占め、ボーイング社がより多くの戦利品を獲得

2023年のドバイ航空ショーでは、特にワイドボディ市場で大きな注文の動きがあり、この地域の航空機クラスへの揺るぎない関心がさらに証明されました。ボーイングボーイングは、エミレーツ航空が777Xの受注残を増加させたおかげで、今回のショーにおけるワイドボディの受注のほとんどを確保することに成功しました。これには、55機の777-9Xの追加発注と、以前キャンセルされた35機の777-8Xの発注の復活が含まれます。これにより、すでに市場をリードしている777Xの受注残は205機となりました。さらに、アラブ首長国連邦最大の航空会社は、787-9の30機の発注を再調整し、787-9のみの発注だけでなく、787-8を 20機と787-10を15機に変更することを決定しました。エミレーツ航空の発注はアメリカのメーカーにとって唯一の勝利戦線ではなく、フライドバイもエミレーツ航空から787-9の全注文を引き継ぐ意向を発表しました。これにより、同社はワイドボディ市場に参入することになりますが、この動きはあくまで路線を強化するためのものだと報じられています。ボーイングの勝利はナローボディの分野にも及び、サンエクスプレスは737-MAX 10を17機、737 MAX 8を28機、さらに45機のオプション付きで取得する意向書を取り交わしました。エアバス一方で、エアバスもショーで黙っておらず、エア・バルティックにA220-300を30機、オプションで20機発注しました。世界で唯一の全A220型機運航会社であるエアバスは、特に最近のプラット・アンド・ホイットニー社製エンジンの問題における取り組みを考えると、同型機のアンバサダーのような存在とみなされています。欧州メーカーは、火曜日、エチオピア航空と11機のA350（さらに6機のオプション付き）の仮契約を結んだことで、さらに大きな成功を収めました。しかし、同航空会社は、787型機11機と737 MAX型機20機を同時に発注することを決定し、さらにドリームライナー15機とMAX型機21機のオプションを追加しました。エミレーツ航空はショーで終わりではなく、最終的にエアバス社に追加のエアバスA350-900型機15機の追加発注することを決定しました。これは、より大型のA350-1000型機で解決されるエンジンの問題のためで、最大50機という当初の予定より少なくなりました。 IBA weeklyの予測通り, エアバスは、エジプト航空に10機のA350-900を発注しました。結局、トルコ航空の発注に関する噂が実現することはなく、同航空は350機以上の発注をめぐってエアバスとまだ交渉中だと言われている。我々は、航空会社が2022年の莫大な利益をいつ再投資するのかをまだ待っています。しかしながら、航空業界における成長への大きな需要が2023年末まで続くことは、OEMにとっても、ひいては航空市場全体にとっても喜ばしいことでしょう。出典: IBAインテリジェンス Written by Neil Fraser, CFA, Manager - Airline Analysis, and Piotr Grobelny, Aviation Analyst.

ウェビナー25Oct 2023

IBA’s Webinar: Redeliveries Revisited

Aircraft redeliveries are complex contractual transactions involving multiple stakeholders. Disputes between parties and delays can cause significant financial and legal ramifications.A thorough understanding of the process and timescales required is essential to navigating a successful redelivery.Watch IBA's asset management experts, plus guest speaker Johnny Champion from law firm Stephenson Harwood, as they share their best practice advice for redelivering aircraft and engines. Watch Here

IBA Insight Forecasts Airline Margins to Average 9% by 2025

記事

IBAは航空会社の利益率が2025年までに平均9%になると予測

航空業界をリードするマーケット・インテリジェンスおよびコンサルタント会社である IBA,は、夏以降の航空市場最新情報のウェビナーで、2022年にはわずか2％、新型コロナウイルスのパンデミック前の2019年には7％であったのに対し、航空会社の収益が改善し、2025会計年度には世界平均EBIT（支払金利前税引前利益）率が9％となり、航空会社の利益が改善すると予測しました。 IBA の ISTAT 認定専門家は、世界各地域で状況が異なると予測しており、北米の航空会社は 2019 年の利益率 (12%) に戻るのが遅くなり、2025 会計年度の利益率は 11% になると予測されています。これと比較すると、欧州の航空会社のコロナ禍前のマージンはすでに6%を超えており、2025年までに9%に達する見込みである一方、2023年のEBIT率は6% 、2025 年には 8%と予測されており、今後1年間に大きな損失を被る中南米の航空会社は少なくなると予想されています。全体として、IBA は乗客 1 人当たりの平均純利益が 2023 年に 3.50 米ドルとなり、2024 年には 8.20 米ドルに上昇すると予測しています。

記事

IBA's 2023 Redelivery Survey

Aircraft redeliveries are complex contractual transactions involving multiple stakeholders. Delays have significant financial ramifications; IBA has previously estimated a typical narrowbody overspend can be around $2M with widebodies even more costly at $4.5M. The parties concerned face numerous, often interdependent, challenges each with different consequences for timescales and having varying financial impacts.

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: Airline Performance 2023

In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour and Dan Taylor explore airline performance over the past year, current industry trends and provide a forward market outlook in the short and long term. Learn more about IBA Airlines, our ground-breaking airline insights platform. Find out more about our aviation consultancy services.

ウェビナー20Sep 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar, September 2023

Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand

ニュースと広報10Aug

China Airline Capacity Jumps to Almost Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer reveals that passenger ASKs from Chinese operators were trending at 96% of 2019 levels in July 2023, a strong increase from 89% in June 2023. IBA’s leading aviation intelligence platform, IBA Insight, further shows that in July: Monthly global passenger capacity edges closer to a full recovery, reaching 97% of pre-pandemic ASKs in July 2023, a gain of +2% compared to June 2023. In July, operators from Africa, North America, Latin America and the Middle East surpassed pre-pandemic capacity, while operators in APAC and Europe continue to lag slightly behind. APAC operator capacity has now surpassed 90% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by a strong July within the Chinese market. Assessing the current trend, IBA expects global passenger ASKs to surpass 2019 levels by October 2023. In July 2023, there were approximately 04 million commercial passenger flights, compared to 2.82 million in June 2023, while 2.64 million flights were recorded in July 2022. Chinese operators recorded 451k commercial passenger flights in July 2023, compared to 388k in June 2023 and 296k in June 2022. There were 110 commercial aircraft deliveries in July 2023, representing a month-on-month and year-on-year variance of -24% and +34% So far during 2023, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 45 per month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 35 per month. -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

記事

成長する航空業界のサステナビリティにかんする最新ニュース

IBA サステナビリティ・ウォッチへようこそ 2023年8月環境・社会・ガバナンス（ESG）問題は、今や航空投資における重要なリスクと見なされており、世界中の当局が透明性の向上と報告基準の厳格化を求めている。ネット・ゼロ・エミッションへの道筋と、それが航空業界全体のすべての主要企業に与える現実的な影響を理解することが、かつてないほど重要になっています。IBAのESGコンサルティングチームは毎月、成長し続ける航空業界のサステナビリティにかんする重要な洞察と最新ニュースをお伝えします。

ニュースと広報26Jul

IBA’s Latest Aircraft Intelligence Underlines Surging Orders and Recovering Values

The latest Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports (AMIRs) published by IBA underline the strengthening order position and positive underlying value trend in the commercial aircraft market. The quarterly reports from the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company reveal that the Airbus A320neo family locked in the majority of the narrowbody orders at the recent Paris Air Show, with a record 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Airlines also placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the show, including around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s. New narrowbodies Data from the IBA Insight intelligence platform shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft fleet is now accelerating with over 1,100 deliveries. Parking and storage declined compared to previous quarters against a backdrop of strong demand and continued return-to-service following the earlier grounding of the type. Lease rates for the aircraft were in the mid-US$300,000 range in the second quarter, with similar lease rate performance exhibited by the Airbus A320neo. Elevated new aircraft demand was evidenced by a strong spread of orders at the Paris Air Show in June 2023, highlighting how operators looked to lock in future delivery positions for fleet growth and renewal. The Airbus A320neo family attracted the bulk of the narrowbody orders in Paris, which included a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft. Boeing also won new orders for its MAX family in the second quarter, with lessor Avolon placing an order for 40 MAX 8s at the Paris Air Show. Additionally, Ryanair firmly committed to 150 MAX 10 examples, the largest variant of the MAX family, in May, plus options for a further 150. Market values of the MAX 8 and A320neo continue to converge, a trend expected to continue through the third quarter. New examples of both aircraft types are exhibiting values in the US$51.5-53.0 million range during the second quarter, with a slight, yet narrowing premium for the A320neo. IBA’s insights reveal that a strong demand, escalation in new aircraft pricing and the continued high-interest rate environment will drive further increases in values and lease rates of this asset class through the third quarter. Used narrowbodies The positive trend of value recovery continues for the used narrowbody segment as well, with the market value of the popular Boeing 737-800 continuing to trend back towards the base value. The popularity of this aircraft, both in passenger markets and the freighter conversion space, has supported this movement, which is forecast to continue into the third quarter. The competing Airbus A320ceo has had a similar trend, and whilst the aircraft was lagging in value performance last year, the recovery relative to its peer reported in the first quarter has continued to manifest. The used narrowbody market is proving to be an important source of capacity for airlines to fill their Northern Hemisphere summer schedules, with deliveries of new aircraft remaining subdued. Although A320ceo values are recovering, the 737-800 retains a premium, with a 10-year-old example of the former residing below US$20 million in the second quarter, compared to the 737-800 which exhibited values in the low US$20 million range. Feedback from the market suggests a notable uptick in lease rates, supported by competition between airlines to take delivery of available assets. This can be a leading indicator of value performance, so IBA adopts a positive value outlook for this sector of the narrowbody market through 2023. New widebodies IBA’s data shows that new widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo, are benefitting from the recovering long-haul markets post-Covid and the slow supply of new aircraft from the OEMs. To capitalise on this long-term recovery, airlines placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show in June. Customers committed to around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s, with the 787-9 and Airbus A350-1000 proving to be the most popular variants. The 787-9 has received the strongest demand throughout the 787 programme, as the demand has shifted materially from the -8 to the -9 throughout. Likewise, the A350-900 has seen the most demand in its family, with orders approaching 800 and deliveries rising towards 500. Recent order activity appears to be concentrated on the larger A350-1000 variant. While it is yet unclear whether this will develop into a longer-term trend, a strong operator base, attractive payload range capability and a large Boeing 777-300ER fleet of over 800 aircraft in need of longer-term replacement suggest it might. This is particularly true as the entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9 is not due until 2025. Data from IBA Insight shows the market values of the new widebody class continue to recover through the second quarter, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2023. New Airbus A350-900 aircraft values in quarter two were around US$150 million depending on specification, whilst the value of a new A350-1000 approached US$170 million. The Boeing 787-10 attracted values approaching US$160 million for a new aircraft, whilst the mid-size 787-9 was valued in the low-US$140 millions. Used widebodies The mid-life widebody market also benefited from the continued resurgence in long-haul travel. Whilst IBA has yet to see a full recovery in international traffic to pre-pandemic levels, supply chains and labour shortages have shifted a focus to retaining existing fleets, reactivating stored aircraft and bringing in previous-generation aircraft to add capacity. Although storage and parking levels of the Airbus A330ceo family appear relatively high at over 20% of the fleet, there is demand for aircraft in good maintenance condition. Demand for Airbus A330-300 passenger to freighter conversions, combined with rebounding passenger demand, has improved the outlook for values and lease rates. A 10-year-old A330-300 aircraft in half-life condition attracted a market value in the second quarter approaching US$20 million and lease rates in the low-US$200,000 per month range. The Boeing 777-300ER is a beneficiary of the recovery in traffic between Europe and Asia and the steady weekly growth in long-haul country pairs. Lease placements more than doubled in the second quarter, with flag carriers including Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines taking aircraft on lease. Such improved demand, set against a backdrop of continued lease extensions amongst key operators creates a promising outlook for values and lease rates through quarter three. In the second quarter, a five-year-old Boeing 777-300ER was valued at around US$61 million in half-life condition, whilst a typical 10-year-old aircraft was in the low- to mid-US$30 million range. As well as this, Boeing 777-300ER lease rates were around US$350,000 per month. However, some lease extensions were observed at higher rates. Freighters The data in IBA’s AMIRs also reveal insights into the freighter market. IBA previously reported that the value performance of the Airbus A330‑300P2F has continued to show resilience, despite a softening cargo market. A backdrop of increasing feedstock pricing and declining supply is contributing to this trend. IBA continues to observe aircraft being acquired with conversion in mind, with a 2012 vintage example acquired in the second quarter for conversion and operation with DHL. A330-300P2F aircraft in the 2007 to 2013 vintage range attracted a Market Value in the mid‑US$30 million to mid-US$40 million range in quarter two. Despite the dwindling feedstock and strategic move towards the newer A330 conversion products by some of the major operators, including DHL and Amazon, conversions of passenger Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to freighters continued at IAI Bedek’s Tel Aviv conversion facility in the second quarter. Half-life market values in the mid-to high-US$20 million range could be achieved in quarter two for recently converted aircraft with mid-2000 vintages. Lease rates in the second quarter were broadly in the mid-to high-US$200,000 per month range. In the factory freighter market, the 777F continues as the only OEM in-production option and is enjoying stable value and lease rate performance. New aircraft in quarter two attracted a market value in the high-US$150 million to low-US$160 million range. Monthly lease rates were between US$1.25 and US$1.35 million depending on credit and lease terms. Continued strengthening in the passenger 777-300ER market should keep feedstock in tight supply and limit the pace of conversion. With the A350F still four years away and the 777-8F longer still, the Boeing 777F should continue to enjoy a positive outlook over the coming years. - ENDS - Note to Editors Copies of IBA’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports are available to be used upon request. While data and insights may be re-used if credited to IBA, the report may not be copied or re-produced in full. To request a copy of the latest AMIR and EMIR (Engine Market Intelligence Reports) reports, click here. About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

記事

Global Airline Passenger Capacity to Surpass 2019 Levels in October, IBA Predicts

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer predicts that global passenger ASKs (available seat kilometres) will surpass 2019 levels by October 2023, having reached 95% of pre-pandemic ASKs in June 2023.

記事

Indigo Order Paris Air Show 2023

IndiGo’s order of 500 aircraft has notably eclipsed Air India’s 470 aircraft order made only in February this year (although there was also an option for 70 aircraft). When added to IndiGo's substantial existing backlog, questions will arise whether the Indian market can accommodate this number of aircraft.

記事

IBA Insight Shows Middle East Airlines Surpassing Pre-Pandemic Capacity

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer shows that Middle Eastern operators surpassed pre-pandemic capacity with ASKs at 103% in May 2023 compared to 2019 levels.

記事

IBA's predictions for Paris Air Show 2023

IBA's Chief Economist, Dr. Stuart Hatcher reveals his insights and sales predictions for The Paris Air Show 2023.

記事

3 Influential women in aviation history (you may not have heard of)

This International Women's Day, we asked the IBA team to highlight the achievements of 3 influential women who made their mark in aviation history, from Spitfires to Concorde.

A KLM 737 passenger jet on the ground at an airport

ニュースと広報08Mar

IBA Analysis - Amsterdam Schiphol flight cap

IBA comments on the legal action planned by airlines following the introduction of flight caps in Amsterdam

記事

One year on – what’s happened to Russian airline capacity?

Over a year has now passed since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the introduction of sanctions, and the reciprocal closure of western, Russian, and Belorussian airspace to select foreign registered aircraft. This naturally posed a huge challenge to European, Asian, and Russian operators as they worked hard to recover from the Coronavirus pandemic. Finnair elected to use the polar route to reconnect services to Japan, and the southern route to Southeast Asia and China. Flight data from IBA Insight reveals that Finnair operates the same number of flights into Singapore and Tokyo today as they did in 2019, but with increased flight durations on each route of 13% and 31% respectively. The airline’s utilisation of the A350 (with its 300 min ETOPS certification) has helped the carrier adapt flexibly. By contrast, operators such as Scandinavian Airlines have elected to remove Japan from their network altogether and have resumed only 7% of Chinese flights to-date. How have Russian operators been affected by sanctions and airspace closures? Russian operators were, in fact, leading the way in post-pandemic recovery with domestic ASKs already 10% above the 2019 peak by August 2020 and 32% by August 2021. Most notably, domestic ASKs sat at 36% above peak 2019 levels in August 2022, following 4 months of sanctions! Whilst we anticipated domestic growth as a result of a big fall in international capacity, I would have expected the sanctions to have dented passenger traffic to a greater extent. Whilst IBA Insight reveals that flights have reduced by around 11% since 2021, we have also observed flexibility in the utilisation of the Russian fleet. Usage of the A319, 737-700 and 737 classics has reduced in favour of increased deployment of the A321. Furthermore, we have witnessed a 20% increase in the usage of widebody aircraft on domestic routes, placing more reliance on the A330 and 777-300ER, the latter of which has seen a 111% increase in flights. Russian operators halted passenger A350 operations in 2021, and these aircraft were largely grounded at the onset of sanctions. Which international destinations are Russian operators flying to? International Capacity was down by 79% in 2020, recovering to 44% below 2019 levels in 2021. This reduced again to 67% below 2019 levels following sanctions. The number of countries visited by Russian operators had dropped from around 80 to less than 30 by the summer of 2022. The most popular summer destinations for Russian travellers proved to be Turkey (37% of capacity), followed by Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, UAE and Kyrgyzstan (each with around 10% capacity). Winter destinations tell a different story. As of February 2023, Thailand tops the list with 19% of the capacity, followed by UAE with 15% and Turkey coming in third with just 10% (just 29% of summer 2022 capacity). Worthy mentions also include Egypt, Cuba, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and India. These collectively account for 15% of winter capacity but <5% of summer 2022 capacity. Egypt is proving a noteworthy winner, with a 1300% increase in traffic to the country from Russia. This has been buoyed by limited options, and the 2021 lifting of the ban on direct flights to Egyptian resort cities following the crash of Metrojet flight 9268. Locations such as the UAE, Turkey, The Maldives and Sri Lanka are up 50-75% on 2019, whilst Russia’s largest winter sun location, Thailand, still has some ground to catch up. Myself and the team will continue to monitor and report on the evolving situation for Russian carriers and the impact on lessors and the wider aviation finance community. Don’t miss out on the latest aviation intelligence The IBA team share regular insights on all aspects of commercial aviation, from airline capacity and travel trends to aircraft values and ESG strategy. Sign up today to get the latest intelligence from the IBA Weekly newsletter delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up to our IBA Weekly

旅客機から輸送機へ交換

ニュースと広報08Aug

IBAは737-800 P2F航空機の供給過剰を予測

ウェビナー03Aug 2023

IBA Insight: How are Freighter Values Performing?

The final episode of our IBA Insight webinar series. Over the past four months, IBA’s award-winning Valuations team have been sharing their latest intelligence on aviation values across all major asset types, engines, eVTOLs and helicopters. How do macroeconomic factors influence the narrowbody and widebody freighter markets? IBA’s intelligence discloses weakening cargo load factors and air freight yields. It summarises the active freighter fleet and market supply and demand, highlighting the 737-800’s enduring domination of narrowbody conversions with a potential risk of oversupply. The 767-300ER’s lead will continue for at least 3 years until the A330 takes over. Finally, IBA shares the relative performance of different conversion programmes and anticipated values and lease rate trends for popular freighter types. Watch on Demand

A digital rendering of an Embraer 190 passenger to freighter conversion aircraft in the livery of Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC)

記事

ノルディックアビエーションキャピタルがEmbraerのE-ジェット貨物機のローンチカスタマーとして承認

はじめに：E-ジェット変換スロットの最初の注文は、Embraerの貨物機変換にとってどのような意味があるのでしょうか？

A Boeing 737 jet cargo aircraft with it's cargo door open

記事

ボーイング737-800は、2022年に乗客を貨物機の増加へと誘導

最近のウェビナーでは、世界の旅客機から貨物機への転換の成長を促進している航空機の種類に焦点を当てました。

Freighter aircraft loading cargo in an airport

ウェビナー29Apr 2022

Emerging Freighter Value Trends for 2022

What is the current and future trajectory for freighter aircraft around the world? In this upcoming webinar, our ISTAT certified Appraisers will share their opinion plus the latest market intelligence from IBA Insight on freighter value performance. Listen in to our panel of experts; Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Consulting, and Jonathan McDonald, Manager – Classic & Cargo Aircraft as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Topics include: How are freighter values and lease rates performing? Which conversion programmes are performing well? How is the landscape of conversion houses changing? How will the Russia/Ukraine conflict impact the freighter market? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Stuart Hatcher. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

An image of a cargo plane being loaded with freight

記事

Four Key Air Cargo Trends to Watch for in 2022

Using a combination of data sources together with IBA's own research and insights from our aviation intelligence platform, we have identified four key trends that will define the performance of the air freight market in 2022.

A Boeing 767-300ER freighter aircraft operated by UPS airlines in flight with landing gear down

記事

Which aircraft make the most cost-efficient freighter conversions?

Which commercial aircraft make the most cost-effective freighter conversions? We use InsightIQ to examine the state of play in the market.

ウェビナー20Oct 2021

The Future of the Passenger - to - Freighter Conversion Market: 2021 and Beyond

The freighter market continues to perform strongly but for how long, and what are the risks to sustained growth and investment? Connect with Phil Seymour, IBA's President, Jonathan McDonald, IBA's Head Analyst Commercial and Ageing Aircraft and Robert Convey, Senior VP at AEI, for an interactive and unmissable session about the freighter market. Topics covered include: What is the current and future outlook for growth, utilisation and transactions? Which conversion programmes are performing well? How is the landscape of conversion houses changing? How good is the supply of conversion candidates? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

An Amazon Prime Air Boeing 737-800BCF aircraft in flight with high lift devices and landing gear extended

記事

Amazon Air Fleet Grows with E-Commerce Market Boom

Amazon's Prime Air operation commenced flights in 2016 when it secured the use of a single Boeing 767-200BDSF.

A Cathay Pacific Boeing 777-300 aircraft taking off from a runway

記事

Older Widebody Aircraft Values Suffer Pandemic's Influence

IBA has adjusted base values for older widebody aircraft. Our analysis looks at the state of the market through the lens of two key aircraft types.

記事

Can P2F Conversions fulfil the unprecedented demand for Global Air Cargo?

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.

記事

4 Key Drivers of Demand in the Global Air Cargo Market

As well the vital role it continues to play in supporting the global economy, the air cargo market is now becoming increasingly important in powering global COVID vaccine distribution.

記事

The changing shape of the P2F conversion market

A new batch of P2F converted freighters is currently entering the market but what makes an aircraft appropriate for conversion? Here, IBA considers the factors influencing suitability and anticipates the market's likely direction.

ニュースと広報26Feb

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

ウェビナー25Feb 2021

IBAウェビナー：2021年の貨物機の価値について知っておくべきすべて

貨物機の資産価値および価値とリース料金の変化の背景にある原動力のより明確な理解が得られます。IBAの経験豊富で受賞歴のある評価スペシャリストによる新しいウェビナーシリーズに参加しましょう。 3つのセッションの内2つ目のセッションでは、ISTAT公認上級鑑定士パネルが貨物機市場に焦点を当てます。パネルは、以下の質問とトピックについて説明致します。貨物機に対するIBAの資産価値とリース料金はどのように変動しているか？ IBAの最近の市場動向の背景にある原動力は何か？様々なプログラム間で転換需要はどれくらい高いか？どのような燃料が利用可能で、価格設定にはどの程度競争力があるか？ IBAの2021年における見通しパワーポイント資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。このセッションがお客様の事業に関連していたおり、有用であったと思っていただければ幸いです。ご不明な点、意見、フィードバックがございましたら、Jonathan McDonaldまでお問い合わせください。

記事

A New Era of Widebody Freighters

For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.

image of an aeroplane flying above buildings

記事

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA's Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family.

drawing of an aeroplane flying down to the right followed by a trail left behind

ニュースと広報02Nov

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

ニュースと広報28May

IBA Highlights High Air Freighter Demand But Mixed Long Term Potential For Aircraft Types

20th May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.

記事

IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019

Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.

エンジン

イベント17Apr

IBA's Engines Explained: The Outlook

Join us for the second session in IBA’s webinar series, Engines Explained. Listen in to hear from our award-winning team as they provide a comprehensive update on the engine market and the outlook for 2024 and beyond. The webinar Stay up-to-date with the latest updates on engine value and lease rate performance, gain insights into spare engine supply and demand, and access details on IBA’s shop visit forecast. Our engine specialists will provide valuable insights on the challenges faced by the industry and the key trends you need to be watching out for. This webinar is a must-attend for anyone in the aviation community with a specific interest in engines. Register Here Over the hour, our experts will discuss: The latest on engine value and lease rate performance – by asset class and generation Spare engine supply and demand IBA’s shop visit forecast The outlook for 2024 and beyond – what you need to be aware of Plus, plenty of time for Q&A, ask us anything! When Should You Tune In? To cater for our global audiences, we are running two sessions: Wednesday 17th April at 08:00 GMT +1 and Thursday 18th at 15:00 GMT +1 The Panel Mike YeomansDirector - Valuations & Consulting, ISTAT Certified Senior AppraiserKane RayHead of General Aviation & Aftermarket, ISTAT Certified AppraiserJamie DaveyManager - Engines & Parts Register Here

記事

6 Key Factors Affecting Aircraft Engine Values in 2024

In recent months, the aircraft engine market has continued to see a surge in demand for many engine types following quality issues on the newer generation engines, including the PW1100G, a focal engine in this commentary. These quality issues combined with a lack of spare engines and material for shop visit events, fuel inflated demand as we head into Q2 2024. Furthermore, all aircraft engine product families continue to face above-average cost escalations resulting in higher cost of ownership which continues to prove a challenge for those invested. As a result, IBA's engine valuations team has increased its narrowbody engine market values and identified some key market factors contributing to this.

ウェビナー29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

記事

Turbulence ahead for some regional aircraft engines, whilst others continue to outperform the market.

IBA's experts examine the latest trends in regional engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

記事

Mature Widebody Engines Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in widebody engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

記事

New generation narrowbody engine values surge beyond 2019 levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in engine values in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

ニュースと広報31Mar

New gen narrowbody engine values surge as mature widebody engines lag

New generation narrowbody engines remain a highly liquid asset with strong orderbooks, reflecting a complete post-pandemic recovery for this type, according to data revealed by the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, IBA.

ウェビナー30Mar 2023

IBA Insight: How are engine values performing?

IBA’s award-winning Valuations team will be sharing their latest insights on engine values in our new webinar series. In our second edition, Phil Seymour and Jamie Davey will reveal key trends to watch for in 2023, the impact of supply chains and inflation on engines values, values and lease rates update for popular engine types and parts and aftermarket updates. Click here to watch the recording

記事

Regional aircraft engine values update - March 2022

The latest trends in regional aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA's InsightIQ.

A jet engine fitted to an Aeroflot aircraft in flight

記事

Which aircraft engines are most exposed to the Ukraine crisis?

IBA's insight has identified that engine lessors are far less exposed to the impacts of the Ukraine Crisis than aircraft lessors.

A view of an orange jet engine fitted to an EasyJet Airbus A320neo aircraft

記事

Utilisation driving greater value stability for narrowbody aircraft engines

The latest trends in narrowbody aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

A view from the wing of a Boeing 747-400 aircraft showing wingtip and jet engines

記事

Freighters buck the trend in latest widebody aircraft engine values

The latest trends in aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

ウェビナー25Mar 2022

Emerging Engine Value Trends for 2022

What is the trajectory for aircraft engines in 2022? In our webinar, IBA's engine appraisers share their opinion plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the state of the market, supply and demand of engines, shop visit forecasts, and much more. Listen in to our panel of experts; Phil Seymour, Company President, David Archer, Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket Value, and Jamie Davey, Manager - Commercial Engines, as they explore the current and future market for engines. Topics include: OEM and aftermarket performance Supply and demand of engines Shop visit forecast Value and lease rate performance Distribution of the fleet The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

記事

Freighter Engine Recovery leads over Passenger Aircraft Engines

Utilisation of freighter aircraft engines is leading over passenger, but such comparisons should be viewed in context, writes David Archer.

A close up view of a jet engine mounted on a Boeing 737

記事

Narrowbody Aircraft Engine Value Trends Update - October 2021

IBA has reviewed and updated our forecasts for narrowbody aircraft trends in October 2021.

A jet engine mounted on the wing of an Airbus A330 aircraft on takeoff, with flaps and landing gear down

記事

Widebody Aircraft Engine Value Trends Update - October 2021

IBA has reviewed and updated our forecasts for widebody aircraft engine trends in October 2021.

ウェビナー30Sep 2021

Tracking the Global Recovery - Engines, all you need to know for Q3

What is the trajectory of aircraft engines in Q3? In our upcoming webinar, IBA's experts, along with Harry Breach, Director at Stifel, will be sharing their views plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the state of the market, supply and demand of engines, shop visit forecasts, and more. Listen in to our panel of experts; Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, and Harry Breach, Director at Stifel, as they explore what the implications are for engines in Q3. Topics covered include: State of the market - utilisation and failures. OEM performance and aftermarket. Supply and demand of engines. Shop visit forecast. Value and lease rate performance. Distribution of the fleet. The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Stuart Hatcher Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

A close up view of an aircraft jet turbofan engine's fan blades

記事

Aviation Intelligence - Tracking Narrowbody Engine Recovery

We analysed utilisation trends for the four most prominent engine families in the narrowbody market to track market recovery.

記事

Demand for Engine Shop Visits Vital to Aviation Market Recovery

Whilst passenger demand is the key driver in the recovery of the aviation market as a whole, a core indication of health of the engine market is in shop visit demand. This can dictate value performance, lease demand, investor appetite and overall liquidity of the engine market.

記事

Rolls Royce Commits to 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capability for Civil Aircraft Engines

Rolls-Royce are to test all its civil aircraft engines currently in production to ensure their compatibility with 100%-sustainable aviation fuel by 2023.

航空機マネージメント

Best Practice for Aircraft Redeliveries in 2023

記事

2023年における航空機再引き渡しのベストプラクティス

IBAのアセットマネジメントの専門家は、先日の航空機の再引き渡しに関するウェビナーで、過去数年間におけるリース終了と再引き渡しのスケジュールの傾向について、いくつかの重要な問題と変化を強調しました。以下は、そのセッションの主な要点です。

ニュースと広報26Jul

IBA’s Latest Aircraft Intelligence Underlines Surging Orders and Recovering Values

The latest Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports (AMIRs) published by IBA underline the strengthening order position and positive underlying value trend in the commercial aircraft market. The quarterly reports from the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company reveal that the Airbus A320neo family locked in the majority of the narrowbody orders at the recent Paris Air Show, with a record 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Airlines also placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the show, including around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s. New narrowbodies Data from the IBA Insight intelligence platform shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft fleet is now accelerating with over 1,100 deliveries. Parking and storage declined compared to previous quarters against a backdrop of strong demand and continued return-to-service following the earlier grounding of the type. Lease rates for the aircraft were in the mid-US$300,000 range in the second quarter, with similar lease rate performance exhibited by the Airbus A320neo. Elevated new aircraft demand was evidenced by a strong spread of orders at the Paris Air Show in June 2023, highlighting how operators looked to lock in future delivery positions for fleet growth and renewal. The Airbus A320neo family attracted the bulk of the narrowbody orders in Paris, which included a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft. Boeing also won new orders for its MAX family in the second quarter, with lessor Avolon placing an order for 40 MAX 8s at the Paris Air Show. Additionally, Ryanair firmly committed to 150 MAX 10 examples, the largest variant of the MAX family, in May, plus options for a further 150. Market values of the MAX 8 and A320neo continue to converge, a trend expected to continue through the third quarter. New examples of both aircraft types are exhibiting values in the US$51.5-53.0 million range during the second quarter, with a slight, yet narrowing premium for the A320neo. IBA’s insights reveal that a strong demand, escalation in new aircraft pricing and the continued high-interest rate environment will drive further increases in values and lease rates of this asset class through the third quarter. Used narrowbodies The positive trend of value recovery continues for the used narrowbody segment as well, with the market value of the popular Boeing 737-800 continuing to trend back towards the base value. The popularity of this aircraft, both in passenger markets and the freighter conversion space, has supported this movement, which is forecast to continue into the third quarter. The competing Airbus A320ceo has had a similar trend, and whilst the aircraft was lagging in value performance last year, the recovery relative to its peer reported in the first quarter has continued to manifest. The used narrowbody market is proving to be an important source of capacity for airlines to fill their Northern Hemisphere summer schedules, with deliveries of new aircraft remaining subdued. Although A320ceo values are recovering, the 737-800 retains a premium, with a 10-year-old example of the former residing below US$20 million in the second quarter, compared to the 737-800 which exhibited values in the low US$20 million range. Feedback from the market suggests a notable uptick in lease rates, supported by competition between airlines to take delivery of available assets. This can be a leading indicator of value performance, so IBA adopts a positive value outlook for this sector of the narrowbody market through 2023. New widebodies IBA’s data shows that new widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo, are benefitting from the recovering long-haul markets post-Covid and the slow supply of new aircraft from the OEMs. To capitalise on this long-term recovery, airlines placed significant commitments for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show in June. Customers committed to around 50 Airbus A350s and 30 Boeing 787s, with the 787-9 and Airbus A350-1000 proving to be the most popular variants. The 787-9 has received the strongest demand throughout the 787 programme, as the demand has shifted materially from the -8 to the -9 throughout. Likewise, the A350-900 has seen the most demand in its family, with orders approaching 800 and deliveries rising towards 500. Recent order activity appears to be concentrated on the larger A350-1000 variant. While it is yet unclear whether this will develop into a longer-term trend, a strong operator base, attractive payload range capability and a large Boeing 777-300ER fleet of over 800 aircraft in need of longer-term replacement suggest it might. This is particularly true as the entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9 is not due until 2025. Data from IBA Insight shows the market values of the new widebody class continue to recover through the second quarter, with a positive outlook for the remainder of 2023. New Airbus A350-900 aircraft values in quarter two were around US$150 million depending on specification, whilst the value of a new A350-1000 approached US$170 million. The Boeing 787-10 attracted values approaching US$160 million for a new aircraft, whilst the mid-size 787-9 was valued in the low-US$140 millions. Used widebodies The mid-life widebody market also benefited from the continued resurgence in long-haul travel. Whilst IBA has yet to see a full recovery in international traffic to pre-pandemic levels, supply chains and labour shortages have shifted a focus to retaining existing fleets, reactivating stored aircraft and bringing in previous-generation aircraft to add capacity. Although storage and parking levels of the Airbus A330ceo family appear relatively high at over 20% of the fleet, there is demand for aircraft in good maintenance condition. Demand for Airbus A330-300 passenger to freighter conversions, combined with rebounding passenger demand, has improved the outlook for values and lease rates. A 10-year-old A330-300 aircraft in half-life condition attracted a market value in the second quarter approaching US$20 million and lease rates in the low-US$200,000 per month range. The Boeing 777-300ER is a beneficiary of the recovery in traffic between Europe and Asia and the steady weekly growth in long-haul country pairs. Lease placements more than doubled in the second quarter, with flag carriers including Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines taking aircraft on lease. Such improved demand, set against a backdrop of continued lease extensions amongst key operators creates a promising outlook for values and lease rates through quarter three. In the second quarter, a five-year-old Boeing 777-300ER was valued at around US$61 million in half-life condition, whilst a typical 10-year-old aircraft was in the low- to mid-US$30 million range. As well as this, Boeing 777-300ER lease rates were around US$350,000 per month. However, some lease extensions were observed at higher rates. Freighters The data in IBA’s AMIRs also reveal insights into the freighter market. IBA previously reported that the value performance of the Airbus A330‑300P2F has continued to show resilience, despite a softening cargo market. A backdrop of increasing feedstock pricing and declining supply is contributing to this trend. IBA continues to observe aircraft being acquired with conversion in mind, with a 2012 vintage example acquired in the second quarter for conversion and operation with DHL. A330-300P2F aircraft in the 2007 to 2013 vintage range attracted a Market Value in the mid‑US$30 million to mid-US$40 million range in quarter two. Despite the dwindling feedstock and strategic move towards the newer A330 conversion products by some of the major operators, including DHL and Amazon, conversions of passenger Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to freighters continued at IAI Bedek’s Tel Aviv conversion facility in the second quarter. Half-life market values in the mid-to high-US$20 million range could be achieved in quarter two for recently converted aircraft with mid-2000 vintages. Lease rates in the second quarter were broadly in the mid-to high-US$200,000 per month range. In the factory freighter market, the 777F continues as the only OEM in-production option and is enjoying stable value and lease rate performance. New aircraft in quarter two attracted a market value in the high-US$150 million to low-US$160 million range. Monthly lease rates were between US$1.25 and US$1.35 million depending on credit and lease terms. Continued strengthening in the passenger 777-300ER market should keep feedstock in tight supply and limit the pace of conversion. With the A350F still four years away and the 777-8F longer still, the Boeing 777F should continue to enjoy a positive outlook over the coming years. - ENDS - Note to Editors Copies of IBA’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports are available to be used upon request. While data and insights may be re-used if credited to IBA, the report may not be copied or re-produced in full. To request a copy of the latest AMIR and EMIR (Engine Market Intelligence Reports) reports, click here. About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: The Challenges of Redelivering Aircraft

Welcome to the Aviation Conversation. In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Denis Brailsford take a deep dive into the challenges faced by both airlines and lessors when redelivering aircraft, and how both parties can prepare for lease ends.

記事

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

“My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes. My son will drive a car. My grandson will ride a camel.” This contested quote relates to the desire to diversify away from an oil-export-dominant economy. Following Qatar and the UAE, it’s now a focus for Saudi Arabia. Aside from the emergence of Avilease last year with the announcement of a 12-aircraft SLB with flynas, the Saudi Public Investment Fund also launched Riyadh Air this week. This was closely followed by the $37Bn list price order for up to 121 x 787-9s to be split between the airline and Saudia. That’s a lot of capacity, and links closely with the Saudi vision to carry 330m passengers by the end of the decade (with close to a third visiting the country). Having spent much of my childhood in Riyadh and witnessing the speed of development, I have no doubt that they can succeed. Might this trigger a Middle Eastern power play whereby Emirates, Etihad and Qatar fight against the Saudi growth to destabilise the profitability for European and Asian carriers hoping to recapture market share? The combined carriers already have 465 passenger aircraft in active service, 95 parked or in storage, and 307 on backlog, I sense that, given their deep pockets, growth will proceed at any cost.

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: What Does the Future Hold for the A380?

In our first edition of The Aviation Conversation, IBA's President - Phil Seymour, is joined by Geoff van Klaveren, Managing Director - Advisory, and Hashen Hewawasam, Head of Commercial Aircraft Valuation, to discuss the future of the A380.

記事

保管された航空機を運航に戻す際に直面する3つの課題

世界のワイドボディ機が復活する中、我々は運航再開過程における主要な課題と、ワイドボディ機への具体的な影響を探ります。

A group of Russian S7 airlines Airbus A320 jet airliner aircraft with airbridge steps attached at an airport

記事

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

A Ural airlines Airbus A320 passenger jet on the ground at an airport with grass and sky in the background

記事

How many aircraft are being illegally re-registered by Russian airlines?

We take a look at how many aircraft have been re-registered in Russia to circumvent sanctions on Russian aviation.

ウェビナー02Mar 2022

Ukraine Crisis and the Impact on Global Aviation: Leading the Conversation

IBA's views on the unfolding conflict and the industry exposure. In response to the escalating emergency in Ukraine, IBA's team of experts and guest speakers will discuss and share thoughts on the evolving situation, the impact for industry stakeholders and practical guidance on how best to mitigate risk. Guest speakers George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace/Defense and Airline Analyst at Bloomberg, and Richard Moody will join IBA's Stuart Hatcher, Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Geoff van Klaveren. Topics include: What is the market exposure across the industry? How could the crisis impact airlines, lessors and banks active in the sector? How could sanctions disrupt the normal financial flows - payments, debt issues, ABS's, and insurance What practical actions are available to the market to mitigate risk? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

ウェビナー14Dec 2021

Emerging trends and new challenges for redelivering aircraft in 2022

Join IBA's asset management and tech experts as they review and discuss new and emerging trends in aircraft and engine leasing redelivery. This session has been produced to provide airlines and lessors with guidance and examples of trends and best practice, the panel will discuss the following topics: What is the forecast for Lease End activity in 2022 and beyond and how does this impact airlines and lessors? To what extent has maintenance reserve claims and exposure increased? Are we seeing new redelivery challenges in the wake of the pandemic? How have transition trends changed? Documentation and Records - what is the future? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

ニュースと広報08Jul

Aviation Recovery Slowly Gathering Momentum, But Substantial Fleet Remains Grounded

The recovery in air traffic is starting to gather momentum on both international and domestic routes, according to data revealed today by IBA at its half year Market Update.

記事

Can P2F Conversions fulfil the unprecedented demand for Global Air Cargo?

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.

記事

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

記事

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe's first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline's take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report

記事

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

image of Norwegian airlines flying over snowy mountains

記事

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.

記事

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960's when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

ウェビナー17Sep 2020

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions. 2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions. Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas: Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in 'the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

記事

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

記事

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

所有権

記事

保管された航空機を運航に戻す際に直面する3つの課題

世界のワイドボディ機が復活する中、我々は運航再開過程における主要な課題と、ワイドボディ機への具体的な影響を探ります。

記事

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

ウェビナー02Mar 2022

Ukraine Crisis and the Impact on Global Aviation: Leading the Conversation

IBA's views on the unfolding conflict and the industry exposure. In response to the escalating emergency in Ukraine, IBA's team of experts and guest speakers will discuss and share thoughts on the evolving situation, the impact for industry stakeholders and practical guidance on how best to mitigate risk. Guest speakers George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace/Defense and Airline Analyst at Bloomberg, and Richard Moody will join IBA's Stuart Hatcher, Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Geoff van Klaveren. Topics include: What is the market exposure across the industry? How could the crisis impact airlines, lessors and banks active in the sector? How could sanctions disrupt the normal financial flows - payments, debt issues, ABS's, and insurance What practical actions are available to the market to mitigate risk? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

ウェビナー16Jun 2021

IBA and NRF Masterclass: How to manage repossessions and remarket aircraft

IBA in association with Norton Rose Fulbright offered a free virtual masterclass reviewing best practise for managing lease re-negotiations, remarketing and repossessions. Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, was joined by a panel of experts, including Robin Springthorpe, Partner at NRF, to share and provide insight and guidance to operators and the finance community. In this hour-long session, the panel discuss current trends for unscheduled returns and defaults, considerations when re-negotiating leases, best practise for remarketing aircraft and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations. Key outputs include: Risk levels in the current climate Contingency planning Default and termination rights Notices and lease termination formalities Recovering assets, records and maintain asset value Avoiding unwanted repossession cost Remarketing opportunities Lease re-negotiations Lease clauses Lessons learnt from the pandemic The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Peter Walter Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

記事

What is the future for Stobart Air's ATR fleet?

Stobart Air ceased operations on Saturday 12th June 2021. A regional carrier operating flights across the UK and Ireland, the Stobart Air fleet consisted of 12 ATR72-600 aircraft and one ATR42-600 aircraft according to data from IBA's InsightIQ platform.

記事

3 Impacts of Covid-19 on Aircraft Repossession and Remarketing Timelines

IBA's Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA's submission to the report 'Aircraft Repossession Planning - Practical Considerations' produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.

ウェビナー18Jun 2020

IBA's Masterclass Webinar: Managing and Preparing for Defaults and Repossessions

In this hour long session, the panel offered guidance and advice to help financiers prepare for unscheduled returns and defaults, outlined how to secure aircraft and engines whilst maintaining asset value and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations. Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, and Oliver Hipperson, Partner at Clifford Chance, were joined by a panel of experts to share and provide insight, best practise and guidance to the finance community on managing unscheduled early redeliveries. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Peter Walter

image of 2 men with paperwork walking away from an aeroplane

記事

The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?

A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.

記事

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

image from the underneath of a plane at an airport

ウェビナー19Mar 2020

IBA's Webinar - Maintaining and Protecting Asset Values, March 2020

IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values. Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19. IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In this short and punchy 'how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories. The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour

image of the underside of an aircraft at an airport

記事

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

移行

記事

保管された航空機を運航に戻す際に直面する3つの課題

世界のワイドボディ機が復活する中、我々は運航再開過程における主要な課題と、ワイドボディ機への具体的な影響を探ります。

ウェビナー14Dec 2021

Emerging trends and new challenges for redelivering aircraft in 2022

Join IBA's asset management and tech experts as they review and discuss new and emerging trends in aircraft and engine leasing redelivery. This session has been produced to provide airlines and lessors with guidance and examples of trends and best practice, the panel will discuss the following topics: What is the forecast for Lease End activity in 2022 and beyond and how does this impact airlines and lessors? To what extent has maintenance reserve claims and exposure increased? Are we seeing new redelivery challenges in the wake of the pandemic? How have transition trends changed? Documentation and Records - what is the future? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

A view of a narrowbody aircraft cabin, featuring aircraft seats and passengers

記事

Narrowbody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We investigated aircraft reconfiguration trends through the lens of two narrowbodies, the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320.

An interiorview of a widebody aircraft cabin, with rows of aircraft seats and in flight entertainment screens

記事

Widebody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We examined widebody aircraft reconfiguration to identify key trends for popular Airbus and Boeing types.

記事

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

ウェビナー17Sep 2020

IBA Webinar: How To Approach Transitions And The 737 MAX Return To Service In 2020

To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions. 2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions. Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas: Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in 'the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.

記事

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

記事

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

image from inside an aeroplane, from the back looking forward

記事

Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020

Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.

image of an aeroplane flying through the sky

記事

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

Read our 2023 update here. Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

image of a man inspecting the underside of a small aircraft

記事

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

記事

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

image of a man building an aircraft engine

記事

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

ヘリコプター

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: Helicopter Market Update 2023

In this edition, IBA's Mike Yeomans and Rami Abdel Aziz cover the latest developments in the helicopter aircraft space and the near term outlook for the asset class. Learn more about IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform. Learn more about our aviation valuations services.

ビデオとポッドキャスト

The Aviation Conversation: eVTOL Market Update 2023

In this edition, IBA's Mike Yeomans and Denesz Thiyagarajan cover the latest developments in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft space and the forward outlook for market entry. Learn more about IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform. Learn more about our aviation valuations services.

What Does the Future of eVTOL Battery Technology Look Like?

記事

eVTOLバッテリー技術の未来は？

世界が革新的な空の旅に目を向けるなか、電動垂直離着陸機（eVTOL）は、未来的な輸送と航空の領域で大きな話題となっているようです。 eVTOL は空に革命を起こすことが期待されており、その潜在的な用途は都市のモビリティを変革しながら新たな市場の地平を切り開くものとなります。ニューヨーク、上海、ロンドンなどの渋滞が発生しやすい世界都市では、これらの環境で効率的な代替交通手段として機能します。同様に、これまで軽量ヘリコプターが市場の標準であったところでは、eVTOLは既存の老朽化した機体の代替となりうる存在として位置づけられています。

ニュースと広報29Jun

IBA Forecasts Positive Outlook For Helicopter Market

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, outlined a largely positive outlook for the helicopter market in a webinar earlier this week. IBA’s expert panel signposted a number of key positive factors for the market including expected continued growth in helicopter leasing, the easing of supply chain issues, growth opportunities in sectors such as EMS (Emergency Medical Services),offshore and wind farms, and the successful introduction and growth of the super medium helicopter category. Looking at the market overall, IBA lists its addressable value at more than US$55 billion, with a current global fleet of over 22,000 ‘western built’ turbine helicopters. Deliveries of these types have averaged around 500 per year in recent years, with a fall to under 500 in 2022 due to supply chain issues. IBA forecasts that this will recover to 475 - 525 airframes in 2023. Lease penetration is highest in Europe and North America, followed by Asia and South America, with the Leonardo AW139 and the Sikorsky S-92A leading the leasing market. The largest market segment is light helicopters, which remain central to EMS, utility and short-range transport missions. The Airbus H125 and H145, and the Bell 407, are among the most popular models in this category, with an average of 350 annual deliveries for the past five years. IBA estimates up to 360 light helicopters will be delivered in 2023. The medium helicopter fleet reached around 3,800 aircraft by the middle of 2023, used for a variety of functions including EMS, Search and Rescue (SAR) and offshore operations. The most popular aircraft in this category are the Leonardo AW139 and AW169, the Bell 412 and the Airbus H155. IBA forecasts that deliveries will significantly increase in 2023 to as many as 75 helicopters, compared to around 55 in 2022. The newer super medium category, which was initiated in 2013-14 with the introduction of the Leonardo AW189 and Airbus H175, is seen by many as the replacement for existing heavy helicopters given their more compelling operating economics. IBA estimates that up to 10 aircraft of this size will be delivered in 2023. The heavy helicopter segment is dominated by the Airbus H225 and Sikorsky S-92 families. It has experienced very low delivery rates since 2016, but is now experiencing a revival in the used market driven by higher oil prices and increased level of offshore activity. However, delivery rates for the segment are still very modest, with IBA estimating up to four in 2023. IBA forecasts burgeoning growth in a number of key helicopter operating sectors, led by EMS which it estimates will grow from 14% to 19% of the market over the next decade. Offshore operations, taking into account the fast-growing offshore and wind farm sector, are forecast to increase from 4% to 7%, and firefighting from 2% to 3%. All helicopter segments have seen a recovery in values post pandemic, but the heavy segment is lagging behind. The market values of the light, medium and super medium categories are at 115%, 111% and 106% respectively of Base Values, with IBA predicting further value growth for all in 2023 and 2024. However, heavy helicopters are currently at 80% of Base Values with an uncertain future outlook. Lease rates have also recovered significantly, but with the same size category trends. Light helicopter lease rates are now at 112% of 2019 levels, with medium and super mediums both at 110%, and with further growth forecast by IBA for 2023 and 2024. Much like the value outlook, the near-term future of heavy helicopter lease rates remains uncertain and will be heavily influenced by movements in oil price. Should oil remain at current levels or increase, the outlook for heavy helicopter lease rates will remain positive. - ENDS - About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, and most recently winning the Sustainable Technology award for its Carbon Emissions Calculator, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297

ウェビナー29Jun 2023

IBA Insight: How are helicopter values performing?

IBA’s Mike Yeomans and Rami Abdel Aziz gave a comprehensive overview of the helicopter market and the latest insights on value performance and trends. Click here to watch on demand

ウェビナー06Dec 2022

Ask the Appraiser: How are Helicopter Values Performing?

IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the final session of the series, join Phil Seymour and Rami Abdel Aziz for an overview of the helicopter market. Watch the recording

記事

Aviation Intelligence - India's First Gift City Leasing Company

Vman aviation services have launched in India. Read our analysis of the first aircraft leasing company in the 'Gift City'.

ウェビナー19Oct 2020

IBA's Helicopter Market Update, October 2020

Our helicopter team are regularly being asked challenging questions about the helicopter market and the impact of Covid-19. In this short market review, Alastair Fallon (IBA's Helicopter Aviation Analyst) shares our latest insight on: • The composition of the global commercial helicopter fleet - leased Vs owned • Helicopter deliveries - actual and forecast • Helicopter deployment • Current Market Values for a selection of key helicopter types • Future developments The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Alastair Fallon

Image of a Helicopter flying at an angle

記事

How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020

IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.

記事

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

記事

How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?

With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Ofﬁcer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.

ビジネスジェット

記事

Changing Tides: Business Jets Experience a Dip in Demand

With 2023 now concluded, a retrospective analysis of the trends and developments within the business jet sphere is in order. By all accounts it has certainly been an interesting year in this market, with IBA observing a downshift in values, a stark contrast to the inflated prices witnessed in 2021 and 2022. However, despite what we usually see post-downturn, the current decline in values hasn’t necessarily followed the expected bounce-back trend we’ve come to expect. How did the GFC affect business jet values? Following the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the business jet market experienced a significant slide in its prospects. During this time, owners were looking for the exits as stock markets plummeted, personal portfolios hit, and uncertainty were at all time highs. Between 2008 and 2009, 18% of the fleet was for sale which was the highest recorded of recent times. This situation was exacerbated by lenient lending terms, which facilitated the purchase of aircraft by individuals lacking strong financial stability. Many owners found themselves unable to maintain payments or justify retaining their corporate jets. Source: GAMA/Jetnet/IBA Sources and Analysis The chart above shows the relationship between the number of business jet deliveries and the average percentage of in-operation jets available for sale between 2008 and 2018. A surge in deliveries can be picked out in 2008, followed by a high percentage of jets for sale, a direct correlation linked to the global financial crisis. How did the pandemic affect values? The gradual decrease in jets available between 2012 to 2020 suggests a return to market balance despite delivery fluctuations, which would ordinally indicate increased demand and market stability. Enter the recent global COVID-19 pandemic, which has considerably impacted by the business jet market, and added a separate layer of market factors. During this period, there was a conspicuous rise in the use of business jets for travel, diverging from the traditional reliance on commercial airline flights. However, with the pandemic coming to an end, consumers have returned to favouring commercial air travel once again. Source: GAMA/Jetnet/IBA Sources and Analysis 2023 (F) – As GAMA have not released Q4 2024 deliveries, IBA has forecasted 2023 deliveries. As shown in the table above, the sizable drop in business jet deliveries in 2020 meant the secondary market saw heightened activity from 2020 to 2022. This was due to many reasons, however, one being the high levels of liquidity, leading corporations and high-net-worth individuals to capitalise on new opportunities. Business jets emerged as an attractive asset class for parking cash due to their stability and potential for value retention. Moreover, the surge in the secondary market was also driven by individuals seeking liberation from the various restrictions imposed on air travel. As the airlines slashed their schedules and reduced their routes, private jet demand only strengthened. There was also an influx of younger individuals entering the market. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues. Last year saw the business jet market spike in inventory levels, surging from 3.85% in 2022 to 6.16% by the end of 2023. With values softening and buyers gaining more time to assess their options, sellers are also adjusting their asking prices in response. However, appetite is still strong, especially with the growing shifts across individual geographic regions. Looking ahead The business jet market today is a very different one to 2008, where both values and demand rely heavily on the specific type and age of aircraft. The decline in values suggests a potential trend toward market equilibrium, indicating a more balanced market scenario. While the United States continues to dominate the space, the likes of Saudia Arabia and India are the ones to watch for 2024. The upcoming election cycle in the US will be fascinating to watch from a trading perspective, although while there is no trend to indicate that it will affect the number of transactions, the economic environment is still expected to play a huge part. IBA predicts the main talking points for this year to be the escalation of geo-political issues currently occurring across the world, which could hinder the purchases of aircraft. Though inventory levels are likely to increase, it will most likely reach its equilibrium of around 10% (pre-covid levels). Furthermore, the default of a major fleet operator could be a major concern in the used aircraft sales market. A situation such as this was narrowly avoided last year when Delta bought ‘Wheels Up’, in a last-minute deal. Large operators would typically have significant number of aircraft, so if one was to fail, this would cause huge number of aircraft to flood the market. Therefore, this oversupply would drive down the prices, as sellers compete to offload their assets. Overall, 2024’s appetite for business jets is still a promising indicator, but more so for newer aircraft. This is because customers are more after comfort, the latest technological advancements and potential long term value retention. With many first-time aircraft owners retaining their assets post-pandemic, we can expect values to remain relatively strong and most likely continue throughout the year. Voted five times Appraiser of the Year, IBA’s experienced valuations team, including our Senior ISTAT Certified Appraisers, have access to real-time data for more accurate valuations. We partner with aviation and financial sector clients globally to provide independent advice on valuation requirements, ranging from strategic fleet selection, sell and buy-side transactions and operational decisions, to annual portfolio monitoring and financial compliance. Learn more about IBA Valuations.

記事

IBA's Business Jet Market Report January 2022

The global business jet fleet numbers almost 23,000 operational aircraft. With the abnormalities seen in business aircraft supply and demand since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic having a significant effect on the market, IBA's Business Jet report shine a light on current market trends in business aircraft. Some key takeaways include: Though slow and cautious at the start of the pandemic, the Bizjet market has proven resilient andprosperous whilst wider commercial aviation has suffered There is high demand for business jets, and we find ourselves in a fast-paced environment in 2022 This high demand, coupled with low supply, has led to a seller's market Inflated Bizjet values are likely to return to normal as commercial aviation continues to recover ESG targets are likely to prove a key challenge to the market over the coming years Download the full report

リース価格

ウェビナー29Nov 2023

IBA's Webinar: Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines

IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.

記事

Aircraft Values & Lease Rates: September 2023

Read our February update of aircraft values and lease rates here. As part of our latest post-summer market update for 2023, IBA delivered a vital update on values performance across the different aviation asset classes.

記事

New generation widebody lease rates are rising

New generation widebody lease rates are rising with some lag and more subdued value gains, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour,  Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in our recent webinar. The latest trends in new generation widebody aircraft values and lease rates. Source: IBA Insight. The Airbus A350-900 was at US$925,000 per-month in January 2021 with an increase to US$954,000 per-month in January 2023. We predict this will have risen to US$1,007,000 per-month by July 2023.   Base value movements are more varied for new generation widebody aircraft. The Boeing 7879, 787-10, Airbus A350-900 and A350-1000 continue to grow, whereas the 787-8 and A330-900 fell between 2019 and 2022 (but stabilised into 2023). The latest mid-life widebody aircraft value and lease rate trends. Source: IBA Insight The base value decline for mid-life widebody aircraft has eased with the prospect of some market value recovery through the first half of 2023. A 12-year-old A330-300 was valued at US$20.04 million in 2022, and is predicted to drop to US$19.967 million in 2023. Some mid-life widebody lease rates are increasing, with a 12-year-old B777-300ER sitting at US$314,000 per-month in October 2022 and predicted to rise to US$350,000 per-month by July 2023.  Don’t miss our latest webinars Stay tuned for our forthcoming webinars covering new and existing asset classes. In the coming months we be taking a deep dive into value trends for Engines, EVTOLs, business jets, helicopters, and freighters. Follow us on LinkedIn for updates on our next webinar.  Discover our market-leading aircraft valuations services IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.  Find out more about IBA Valuations

ウェビナー13Jan 2023

IBA's Market Update Webinar January 2023

Join IBA for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.

ウェビナー12Sep 2022

IBA's Webinar: What does the future hold for Aviation in the Americas?

What's the outlook for Aviation in the Americas? Join IBA, the 2022 Appraiser of the Year, for the latest update on current and future trends and activity across the American aviation industry.Listen in to our panel of experts; Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director – Valuations and Consulting, and Jack Ambrose, Regional Sales Manager (Americas) as they uncover, review and discuss key trends across aviation finance. This session was specifically designed to provide valuable insight that will support the aviation community in the Americas to identify market opportunities, structure deals, and mitigate risk within the current market. Topics include: Macro-economic update – inflation, interest rates, currency, oil price & airline failures Airline activity – US, South American, and Canadian Airlines performance OEM activity – latest on orders Valuation trends & trading activity – Asset performance in 2022 and beyond The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Jack Ambrose. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

ウェビナー22Jul 2022

IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar

Join IBA, the 2022 Appraiser of the Year, for an update on current and future trends across the global aviation industry.Listen in to our panel of experts; Phil Seymour, Geoff van Klaveren, Mike Yeomans and Dan Taylor as they uncover, review and discuss trends across aviation finance. This essential update will enrich your understanding of key market indicators and trends as our experts share their insight and opinion on what to expect for the remainder of 2022 and beyond. Topics include: Macro-economic update – how are the changes in inflation, interest rates, currency, and oil price impacting the aviation community? Capacity – what demand are we seeing for PAX and cargo? Asset values – how are aircraft values and lease rates performing? Aircraft deliveries and trading activity – what are the latest trends? Airline profitability – what is the outlook for the remainder of 2022 and beyond? The slide deck is available to download here. To watch the webinar on demand, click here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Geoff van Klaveren. Discover what makes IBA Insight the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

記事

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

ニュースと広報12Feb

IBA Sees Least Dilution In New Gen Aircraft Values With A320neo Outpacing 737 Max

New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

ニュースと広報02Nov

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

ニュースと広報02Nov

IBA Launches New Aviation Intelligence Platform, InsightIQ

2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.

記事

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960's when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

ニュースと広報16Oct

IBA Appointed ARJ21 Programme Appraiser By COMAC

16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.

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ニュースと広報18Sep

Over 1,000 Aircraft Set To Return To Lessors In 2021 Without New Homes Says IBA

- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground - 18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.

記事

Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates

Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates. As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.

ニュースと広報28May

IBA Highlights Resilience of Regional Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Values but Performance Variation Due to Secondary Market Supply

29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.

image of data across a screen with glasses placed in front

ウェビナー25May 2020

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 - Regional and Turboprop Aircraft Values

The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions. Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines. The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer

記事

Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.

As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.

記事

IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019

The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.

記事

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

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記事

How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?

The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time. Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.

航空会社の信頼

記事

Aviation Intelligence - Does a Global Crisis Drive Airline Start-ups?

While it is becoming clear that the post-pandemic market is providing an opportunity, are global crises in general a breeding ground for brave and bold start-ups?

A man behind a screen of data, reaching to touch a plane

記事

What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis. In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

記事

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air's Planned Schedule?

The pandemic's disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA's powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.

記事

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

Using InsightIQ's analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

ニュースと広報02Nov

Aviation Shifting From Initial Covid Impact To Longer Term Survival Strategies, Says IBA

- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -

記事

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

記事

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates. For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

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記事

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

コロナウイルス

記事

保管された航空機を運航に戻す際に直面する3つの課題

世界のワイドボディ機が復活する中、我々は運航再開過程における主要な課題と、ワイドボディ機への具体的な影響を探ります。

An image showing a yellow Spirit Airlines Airbus A320neo aircraft on the ground at an airport

記事

Low cost airline capacity to grow past pre-Covid levels in 2022

IBA has forecasted a sharp recovery in capacity and demand in our recent commercial aviation market update.

ウェビナー29Jul 2021

Tracking the global recovery - Narrowbody and Widebody values update

What is the trajectory of commercial aircraft values around the world? In our upcoming webinar, our experts will be sharing their views plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the speed of recovery, future value performance and what the implications are for aviation finance globally. Listen in to our panel of experts; Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Phil Seymour, Company President, as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Using intelligence from InsightIQ, topics covered include: Regional Recovery Commercial Aircraft: How will aircraft values and lease rates move across narrrowbody and widebody aircraft? What are the driving forces behind future market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen for Q3/4 2021? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

ウェビナー09Jul 2021

IBA's Aviation Market Update - July 2021

The start of the aviation recovery is proving to be inconsistent. Some markets are being constrained by a combination of new virus variants, continued local restrictions, infection rates and the varying pace of vaccine rollouts, whilst other regions are experiencing solid levels of domestic traffic recovery. Join IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, for an update on current and future market trends across the globe. Listen in to our panel of experts; Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Phil Seymour, Company President, as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Using intelligence from InsightIQ, topics covered include: How fast are markets recovering? How are OEMs performing and are we seeing order swaps? What are the latest transactions trends? What are the lease expiry dates forecasting? How are aircraft values and lease rates performing? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

ニュースと広報08Jul

Aviation Recovery Slowly Gathering Momentum, But Substantial Fleet Remains Grounded

The recovery in air traffic is starting to gather momentum on both international and domestic routes, according to data revealed today by IBA at its half year Market Update.

記事

Airline Industry Analysis: The Impact of Oil Prices & Coronavirus

The historic correlation between high oil prices and airline failures is a proven trend. Combined with Coronavirus, they represent a clear and present danger to airlines.

記事

Aviation Trends: Booking Spike Shows High Demand For Travel

Data from IBA's InsightIQ platform has revealed strong regional variations in flight data and recovery of load factors.

記事

3 Impacts of Covid-19 on Aircraft Repossession and Remarketing Timelines

IBA's Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA's submission to the report 'Aircraft Repossession Planning - Practical Considerations' produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.

ウェビナー26May 2021

IBA & KPMG's Webinar: State of the Industry Debate; Will the Northern Hemisphere be clear for take off this summer?

IBA in partnership with KPMG, join forces to explore key market indicators for the aviation industry. Together, the panel discuss global market performance and the outlook for the coming months. Will the traditionally busy Northern Hemisphere summer deliver for the industry? Using InsightIQ aviation intelligence, join Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans from IBA, and Kieran O'Brien from KPMG, as they discuss the following questions: What are the current key industry trends across regions? Will we see more consolidation in the leasing space? What is the outlook for airlines in the next 6 month? Will the "new" ABS structures improve credit risk and cash retention? Are asset values stabilising? Is the industry preparing for tighter ESG within aviation? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo

記事

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China's Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

記事

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe's first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline's take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report

記事

日本の航空市場の進化する構造

ルイス・レスリー　シニアーアビエーションアナリスト　IBA 鑑定士は、日本のアビエーション市場を探究するために、Insight IQフリートと評価インテリジェンスを使っています。概要日本の就役航空機フリートの19％は、駐機または保管機である。日本の航空会社による航空機の利用率は、世界的な傾向と同様に、まだコロナ禍以前のレベルまで回復していない。しかし、日本の航空市場は堅調で、今後数年間でアジア太平洋地域の成長機会に恵まれる。今後10年以内に大規模なフリートの置き換えが見込まれているが、Boeing 737 MAXの遅延により、その割合は不確実である。 2020年から2021年3月までの流通市場取引ではセール・アンド・リースバックが9件記録され、大部分を占めた。 JOLCOの取引量は昨年減少したが、新しい航空機需要が回復するにつれて同取引量も回復すると予想される。

Image of plane tracking data on a world map

ニュースと広報29Apr

IBA Outlines Global Aviation Trends To Japanese Investment Community

IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.

ウェビナー27Apr 2021

IBA主催日本の最新航空市場ウェビナー

スチュワートハッチャーCRO、マイクイェオマンス取締役、ジョンデューリーアジアビジネスディベロップメントマネージャーが、"InsightIQ"からの分析を利用して、下記トピックを討論します。航空機価値のパフォーマンス航空機フリートの変更時期 OEMアクティビティ航空機として使用後の利用トレンド移行アクティビティ - セールストレンド及びキャタルアクティビティーパワーポイント資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。ご不明な点、意見、フィードバックがございましたら、次の連絡先までお問い合わせください。John Duley &nsbp;

ビデオとポッドキャスト

How Does the Covid-19 Crisis Compare to Previous Downturns, and What Does the Future Hold?

The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns? Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA's Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou

ニュースと広報12Mar

Aircraft Engine Market Regaining Revs, But Lengthy Recovery Timefame Says IBA

The aircraft engine market is showing early signs of recovery from the worst effects of the Covid-19, but is not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until the mid-2020s, according to leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.

記事

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

Finlay Grogan, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

ニュースと広報26Feb

IBA Sees Sustained Growth In Freighter Aircraft Demand But Suppressed Values

Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.

ウェビナー25Feb 2021

IBAウェビナー：2021年の貨物機の価値について知っておくべきすべて

貨物機の資産価値および価値とリース料金の変化の背景にある原動力のより明確な理解が得られます。IBAの経験豊富で受賞歴のある評価スペシャリストによる新しいウェビナーシリーズに参加しましょう。 3つのセッションの内2つ目のセッションでは、ISTAT公認上級鑑定士パネルが貨物機市場に焦点を当てます。パネルは、以下の質問とトピックについて説明致します。貨物機に対するIBAの資産価値とリース料金はどのように変動しているか？ IBAの最近の市場動向の背景にある原動力は何か？様々なプログラム間で転換需要はどれくらい高いか？どのような燃料が利用可能で、価格設定にはどの程度競争力があるか？ IBAの2021年における見通しパワーポイント資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。このセッションがお客様の事業に関連していたおり、有用であったと思っていただければ幸いです。ご不明な点、意見、フィードバックがございましたら、Jonathan McDonaldまでお問い合わせください。

記事

China's Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

購買後市場と部品

A group of Aeroflot aircraft at the gates of Moscow airport

記事

How long can Russian airlines maintain their aircraft?

IBA's experts examine how long Russian operators can keep aircraft flying with a limited supply of parts.

記事

Freighters buck the trend in latest widebody aircraft engine values

The latest trends in aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

Image of an aeroplane wing and engine in the sky

記事

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

image of a graph and data on the screen with US dollars over the top

記事

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

This month Adil Slimani, IBA's Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values. 'Unprecedented' and 'Covid' have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic's tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I'll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV). For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Uncategorised

イベント21May

African Aviation Summit: Air Finance Africa

Join us for the African Aviation Summit taking place from Tuesday 21st - Thursday 23rd May, 2024, in the Bill Gallagher Room, Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg, South Africa. IBA's Dan Taylor, Head of Consultancy, will be speaking at the African Aviation Air Finance Current Market Analysis session. If you would like to meet Dan at this event, please get in touch.

ニュースと広報09Apr

IBA Appoints Kane Ray as Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and advisory company, has appointed Kane Ray as the new Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket. Kane brings a wealth of experience spanning over 13 years in aviation consulting, valuations, and asset management. In his new role, Kane will combine his broad technical aviation knowledge and commercial relationships to lead IBA’s General Aviation and Aftermarket appraisal services. Together with his highly experienced team and IBA’s access to cutting-edge intelligence through IBA Insight, he will be well poised to deliver accurate, unbiased valuations and advisory services across a diverse range of aviation assets. Kane’s career first started at IBA where he established himself as an expert in aircraft engine and component appraisal and consultancy services across seven years, and left as Head Analyst in 2018. He went on to work as a Senior Consultant at Counterpoint Market Intelligence from 2019 to 2021 and as Technical Manager at Kayan Aviation Capital from 2021 to 2023. Prior to his new appointment at IBA, Kane was Head Appraiser at AviationValues. He now returns to IBA with significant exposure to the aviation supply chain. Regarding his appointment, Kane commented: “The development of both IBA’s breadth of experience and product offerings since I have been away has been a remarkable pathway. Its award-winning valuation and advisory services are built from IBA’s incomparable access to quality insights and the team’s extensive expertise, making it the most dependable offering among competitors.” “It is for that reason that I commenced a career at IBA over a decade ago and why I’ve decided to rejoin the company today. The company culture and passion for aviation is something I have missed, and I am extremely glad to be back.” Of Kane’s appointment, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Consulting, commented: “Kane's leadership, technical prowess, and extensive market knowledge will be invaluable to IBA. Providing our clients with market leading expertise is at the heart of what we do, and I am thrilled to have Kane’s skills and experience to drive forward our offerings across engines, components, helicopters, general and business aviation. I speak not only for myself but also for our colleagues when I say how happy and excited I am to welcome Kane back to IBA.”

ニュースと広報04Apr

IBA qualified by RMI as Aviation Climate Aligned Finance data provider

- Qualification comes as RMI launches new Pegasus Guidelines - - IBA NetZero the market-leading emissions reporting and analysis tool will be recommended to adopters of the Guidelines -

ニュースと広報19Mar

IBA Demonstrates Powerful New Airline Risk Analytics Tool With In-Depth Assessments of Major Carriers

IBA Airlines Pro set to lead the market with the world’s most comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessments of airline risk. IBA, the market leading aviation intelligence and advisory company, has launched IBA Airlines Pro, a powerful new airline analytics tool. Blending IBA’s core competencies in quality data and deep consulting insight, IBA Airlines Pro leads the industry with the most in-depth and comprehensive airline assessments. Fleet, operations, financial performance, access to funds and lease management all form part of a quick and easy to understand risk score pioneered by the IBA Airlines team.

ニュースと広報21Feb

IBA Enhances Fleet Monitoring Capabilities in IBA Insight, with New Mobile Application

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and advisory company has further enhanced IBA Insight’s fleet monitoring capabilities with a powerful new mobile application. Available on the App Store and Google Play, the new application alerts users to time-sensitive information such as discrimination (the over or under-use of aircraft) and flights to prohibited destinations, all via push notifications on a mobile phone.

ニュースと広報15Feb

IBA Introduces One-Stop Scope 3 Reporting with Netzero Reporting

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and advisory company, has recently introduced NetZero Reporting, an enhancement to its IBA NetZero tool, built specifically to enable the aviation community to fulfil their Scope 3 reporting obligations.

ニュースと広報08Jan

Boeing 737 MAX 9 Grounding – IBA Analysis

FAA and EASA: all Boeing 737 MAX 9s with emergency exit door plug must be inspected before further flight Around 85% of global fleet of 737 MAX 9s have the mid-exit door plug installed Majority of in-service 737 MAX 9s are operated in North America, specifically the US, with 144 aircraft representing two-thirds of the 216 aircraft fleet United Airlines is largest operator of type followed by Alaska Airlines Mike Yeomans Director – Valuations and Consulting, IBA ISTAT Certified Senior Appraiser

ニュースと広報20Dec

Aircraft OEM 2023 Performance Overview – IBA Analysis

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has released an overview of OEM performance in 2023. It shows that, while some OEMs will reach their targets, others are set to fall short due to quality issues and production setbacks.

ニュースと広報04Dec

IBA Predicts Long-Term Turbulence in Narrowbody Engine Market

In its latest webinar on the narrowbody engine market, IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, predicted that engine market values and lease rates are likely to increase given the current and ongoing supply chain issues and the more specific GTF engine problem. It expects the industry to suffer longer term due to growing pressure on shop visits and turnaround times, which are forecasted to increase.

IBA Launches Groundbreaking Airline Insights Platform

ニュースと広報10Oct

IBA が画期的な AIRLINE インサイト・プラットフォームを開始

航空業界をリードするマーケット・インテリジェンスおよびコンサルタント会社であるIBAは、本日、IBA Airlinesを立ち上げました。これは、航空業界が航空会社の運航実績を監視し、財務状況を詳細に評価できるようにする画期的な新しい航空会社インサイトプラットフォームです。

ニュースと広報28Sep

IBA Forecasts Airline Margins to Average 9% by 2025

In its post-summer aviation market update webinar, IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, forecast improving airline profits with a global average EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) margin of 9% in the 2025 financial year, compared to just 2% in 2022 and 7% in 2019 prior to the Covid pandemic.

ニュースと広報06Sep

IBA Appoints Gerry Gualtieri as CEO to Drive Growth and Innovation

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has appointed Gerry Gualtieri as CEO.

ニュースと広報31Jul

ヒースロー空港の燃料供給問題が炭素排出量に与える影響

- IBAは、1日あたり1800トンのCO2が無駄に使用されると推定しています。 - IBA代表取締役、Phil Seymour ヒースロー空港が航空会社に対し、ヒースロー空港での燃料の引き上げをできるだけ少なくするよう要請したというニュースは、間違いなくCO2排出量が増加することを意味します。では、その規模はどの程度であり、航空会社はこの状況にどのように対処するのでしょうか。 IBA は、ヒースロー空港の燃料供給問題の結果として、1 日あたり 1,800 トンものCO2が無駄に使用されていると推定しています。ヒースロー空港で9日間問題が発生した場合、地球上で16,200トンものCO2が無駄に使用されることになります。必要以上の燃料を搭載することは、燃料の「タンカリング」として知られています。 CO2 排出量が注目される前の時代、出発空港での燃料価格と目的地での燃料価格を考慮する際に、航空会社がよく使用していた手法でした。特定のフライトに必要な量を超える重量や燃料を運ぶにはコストがかかります。航空機が重くなればなるほど、離陸や上昇に必要な推力が増し（そのため、より多くの燃料が使用されます）、エンジンの消耗が激しくなり、着陸重量が重くなればブレーキの摩耗が大きくなります。 CO2 排出量への注目が高まるにつれ、燃料燃焼量の増加は排出量の増加を意味するため、タンカリングは好ましく思われないようになってきました。ヒースロー空港は、航空会社に対し、ヒースロー空港で積み込む燃料を制限するよう要請しており、これはヒースロー空港に乗り入れる航空会社がタンカリングに協力しなければならないことを意味します。現実的に言えば、遠く離れた目的地から到着する航空機は燃料容量のほぼすべてを使用するため、選択肢はほとんどありません。つまり、シンガポールからヒースロー空港へ向かうB777では、復路に十分な燃料を搭載できないということです。しかし、IBAは、米国東海岸や中東などの地域から毎日約60便のヒースロー空港への到着便が、復路に十分な燃料を積んで出発空港を出発できる可能性があると推測しています。仮説として、B777-300ER のニューヨークにあるジョン・F・ケネディ国際空港からヒースロー空港への復路便での例を考えてみましょう。 777-300ERを選択したのは、非常に高い燃料搭載量、この場合では、大西洋横断便の往復に十分な燃料を搭載できるからです。ジョン・F・ケネディ国際空港を出発する場合、航空会社は、区間特性と機体重量に基づく推定燃料消費量に、迂回や天候の問題に対する様々な不測の事態を加えた「旅程燃料」を決定します。この例では、燃料搭載量を60トンとしていますが、燃料消費量はもっと少ないかもしれません。航空会社ができるだけ多くの燃料を持ち込むようにという要求を考慮すると、航空会社はさらに多くの燃料を積んで出発する必要があり、この場合、追加で 50 トンと想定されます。したがって、航空機は110トンの燃料を積んでジョン・F・ケネディ国際空港を出発することになります。超過重量を運ぶために、さらに 50トンの追加燃料も必要になります。通常、この係数は、そのセクターの次の条件に基づきます。当初の計画燃料を超えて燃料が 1 トン追加されるごとに、追加の燃料燃焼量は 1 トンあたり 0.2 になります。したがって、この例では、50トンの追加で10トンの燃料を燃やすことになります。 CO2 換算すると、この追加燃料を運ぶために「無駄に使用される」CO2が30トン以上増えることになります。ヒースロー空港を出発する同様のフライトが 1 日あたり 60 便あると仮定すると、1日あたり1800トンのCO2が無駄に使用されることになり、9日間を想定すると、16,200トンのCO2が地球上に無駄に排出されることになります。 IBA NetZero の商用航空炭素計算機の決定版をご覧ください。デモを予約してください

ニュースと広報12Jun

IBA's Predictions for Paris Air Show 2023

Over the past few weeks, we have been focusing heavily on supply chain, order rumours, regional growth, ESG, rising costs, failures pointing the blame at reliability and strengthening airline results; probably the key factors that have so far defined the mood of 2023. That mood has a chance to thoroughly express itself in one week’s time as we head to Paris Air Show after a four-year break. So, IBA has been focusing on considering all the rumours and other key factors, and combining them with our own analysis to develop our customary pre-show predictions. Of course, as we all know, deals aren’t struck at air shows. However, they are the public face of where airlines and lessors can play their hand in securing future market share, the primary PR events for OEMs across all aviation sectors, and serve equally well as the industry barometer to close off the first half of the year.

ニュースと広報30May

IBA Outlines eVTOL Market Value Model

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, examined the eVTOL market in its latest webinar, presenting a valuation model and depreciation trends over a projected 10-20 year lifespan.

ニュースと広報17May

Global Airline Passenger Capacity to Surpass 2019 Levels in July, IBA Predicts

IBA’s latest Aviation Industry Barometer shows that monthly global airline passenger capacity as measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs) is steadily reaching pre-pandemic levels, with 95% recorded in April 2023.

ニュースと広報11May

IBA Analysis: Ryanair 300 Aircraft Order Marks Growth In Strategy And Fleet

This week an agreement was made with Boeing for up to 300 737 MAX 10 aircraft. IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, notes that while only 150 will be firm orders, with the remaining being options, a narrowbody order of this scale is more typical of recent orders placed by carriers in Asia or the US. This order also dwarfs the 196 A321 aircraft order of Wizz Air in November 2021.

ニュースと広報25Apr

Asia-Pacific’s Airline Capacity Recovery Accelerates by 20% in Q1 2023

IBA’s Aviation Industry Barometer for March 2023 found that Asia-Pacific airline capacity reached 83% of 2019 ASKs in March 2023 – a jump of 20% in the first quarter of this year.

ニュースと広報15Mar

Flights Increase by a Quarter Since 2022, with Capacity Now Over 90% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today published its monthly Aviation Industry Barometer for February 2023. Data from IBA’s Insight intelligence platform shows a 24% year-on-year increase in passenger flights from February 2022, with 2.3 million commercial passenger flights recorded in February 2023.

ニュースと広報10Mar

IBA Expands Global Sales Team with New Sales Manager for Middle East & Africa

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has expanded its global sales team with the appointment of Robbie Deegan to the newly created position of Sales Manager, Middle East and Africa.

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