IBA's Market Update Webinar: January 2024

In the first market update webinar of 2024, IBA President Phil Seymour, along with Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Consulting, and Dan Taylor, Head of Consulting, reviewed the aviation industry's performance in 2023 and forecasted trends for 2024. 

Key takeaways

Over the hour, our panel discussed the stable GDP, predicted a slight economic slowdown for 2024-2025, and expressed concerns about inflation and interest rates.

• The aviation industry saw a record year of orders in 2023, with Airbus leading, followed by Boeing.
• The backlog of orders is at a record high, dominated by the APAC region.
• The secondary market availability of aircraft is decreasing, indicating market improvement.
• The airline industry is expected to see slight improvement in 2024, with profitability improving and a positive outlook for the industry.

The webinar concluded with a Q&A session, discussing delivery rates, build rates, and lessor consolidation. The discussion also touched on the impact of the pandemic on the aircraft market, lease rates, and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the aviation industry.

The webinar also reintroduced IBA Airlines, and IBA NetZero Reporting, the new addition to IBA NetZero for reporting Scope 3 aviation emissions.

"Inflation and interest rates are a concern, with inflation varying across economies and central banks working to bring it down. The aviation industry had a record year of orders in 2023, with a strong dominance from the APAC region. Despite concerns about quality control issues, we expect the growth rate to continue. The availability of off-lease aircraft has been decreasing, indicating an improvement in the market. We expect the number of retirements to rise significantly in the coming years due to the lack of supply of maintenance and parts. The airline industry is expected to see a slight improvement in 2024, with demand exceeding supply, driving operating results upwards. However, exchange rates could impact some operators and labor inflation is easing in most regions."

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