IBA News & Insights

IBA Insight

Regional aircraft engine values face turbulence in early 2023

Articles

Turbulence ahead for some regional aircraft engines, whilst others continue to outperform the market.

IBA's experts examine the latest trends in regional engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

Mature Widebody Engines Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in widebody engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

Easter flights to be at 90 of pre-pandemic levels within Europe

The number of flights operating over the European Easter weekend between 7th – 10th April 2023 will be at 90% of 2019 levels on routes to and from Europe. Aviation intelligence from IBA Insight also reveals that some low-cost carriers will exceed pre-Covid levels.

Articles

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

“My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes. My son will drive a car. My grandson will ride a camel.” This contested quote relates to the desire to diversify away from an oil-export-dominant economy. Following Qatar and the UAE, it’s now a focus for Saudi Arabia. Aside from the emergence of Avilease last year with the announcement of a 12-aircraft SLB with flynas, the Saudi Public Investment Fund also launched Riyadh Air this week. This was closely followed by the $37Bn list price order for up to 121 x 787-9s to be split between the airline and Saudia. That’s a lot of capacity, and links closely with the Saudi vision to carry 330m passengers by the end of the decade (with close to a third visiting the country). Having spent much of my childhood in Riyadh and witnessing the speed of development, I have no doubt that they can succeed. Might this trigger a Middle Eastern power play whereby Emirates, Etihad and Qatar fight against the Saudi growth to destabilise the profitability for European and Asian carriers hoping to recapture market share? The combined carriers already have 465 passenger aircraft in active service, 95 parked or in storage, and 307 on backlog, I sense that, given their deep pockets, growth will proceed at any cost.

a group of people in front of an exhibition stand at a professional networking expo

Articles

ISTAT Americas and IBA's Learning Lunch - what we learned in San Diego

IBA's Chief Economist takes stock of the ain learnings from ISTAT Americas, San Diego, 2023.

Articles

One year on – what’s happened to Russian airline capacity?

Over a year has now passed since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the introduction of sanctions, and the reciprocal closure of western, Russian, and Belorussian airspace to select foreign registered aircraft. This naturally posed a huge challenge to European, Asian, and Russian operators as they worked hard to recover from the Coronavirus pandemic. Finnair elected to use the polar route to reconnect services to Japan, and the southern route to Southeast Asia and China. Flight data from IBA Insight reveals that Finnair operates the same number of flights into Singapore and Tokyo today as they did in 2019, but with increased flight durations on each route of 13% and 31% respectively. The airline’s utilisation of the A350 (with its 300 min ETOPS certification) has helped the carrier adapt flexibly. By contrast, operators such as Scandinavian Airlines have elected to remove Japan from their network altogether and have resumed only 7% of Chinese flights to-date. How have Russian operators been affected by sanctions and airspace closures? Russian operators were, in fact, leading the way in post-pandemic recovery with domestic ASKs already 10% above the 2019 peak by August 2020 and 32% by August 2021. Most notably, domestic ASKs sat at 36% above peak 2019 levels in August 2022, following 4 months of sanctions! Whilst we anticipated domestic growth as a result of a big fall in international capacity, I would have expected the sanctions to have dented passenger traffic to a greater extent. Whilst IBA Insight reveals that flights have reduced by around 11% since 2021, we have also observed flexibility in the utilisation of the Russian fleet. Usage of the A319, 737-700 and 737 classics has reduced in favour of increased deployment of the A321. Furthermore, we have witnessed a 20% increase in the usage of widebody aircraft on domestic routes, placing more reliance on the A330 and 777-300ER, the latter of which has seen a 111% increase in flights. Russian operators halted passenger A350 operations in 2021, and these aircraft were largely grounded at the onset of sanctions. Which international destinations are Russian operators flying to? International Capacity was down by 79% in 2020, recovering to 44% below 2019 levels in 2021. This reduced again to 67% below 2019 levels following sanctions. The number of countries visited by Russian operators had dropped from around 80 to less than 30 by the summer of 2022. The most popular summer destinations for Russian travellers proved to be Turkey (37% of capacity), followed by Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, UAE and Kyrgyzstan (each with around 10% capacity). Winter destinations tell a different story. As of February 2023, Thailand tops the list with 19% of the capacity, followed by UAE with 15% and Turkey coming in third with just 10% (just 29% of summer 2022 capacity). Worthy mentions also include Egypt, Cuba, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and India. These collectively account for 15% of winter capacity but <5% of summer 2022 capacity. Egypt is proving a noteworthy winner, with a 1300% increase in traffic to the country from Russia. This has been buoyed by limited options, and the 2021 lifting of the ban on direct flights to Egyptian resort cities following the crash of Metrojet flight 9268. Locations such as the UAE, Turkey, The Maldives and Sri Lanka are up 50-75% on 2019, whilst Russia’s largest winter sun location, Thailand, still has some ground to catch up. Myself and the team will continue to monitor and report on the evolving situation for Russian carriers and the impact on lessors and the wider aviation finance community. Don’t miss out on the latest aviation intelligence The IBA team share regular insights on all aspects of commercial aviation, from airline capacity and travel trends to aircraft values and ESG strategy. Sign up today to get the latest intelligence from the IBA Weekly newsletter delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up to our IBA Weekly

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft values set to climb through 2023

New narrowbody aircraft base values rose beyond the long-term trend into 2023, and lease rates are forecast to climb further this year, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in the first of our new series of valuations webinars.

Articles

On this Day in 1987 – First Flight of the Airbus A320

The revolutionary Airbus narrowbody made its maiden flight on 22nd February 1987. It was an all-new aircraft, boasting advanced fly-by-wire technology and a host of other cutting-edge features. The aircraft quickly gained the attention of airlines who wanted to take advantage of its low operating costs, high fuel efficiency and competitive price. The program that would eventually give birth to the aircraft can be traced back to 1977, when the Joint European Transport Program (JET) began working on designs for narrowbody aircraft pitched at the 130-188 seat market. The project aimed to produce an aircraft with a cruise speed of Mach 0.84, faster than the top line Boeing 737 models available at the time. In addition to a speed advantage over the competition, the aircraft could act as an appropriate replacement for the ageing narrowbody fleet operating across Europe (such as older 737 family jets and the BAC One Eleven). The initial single aisle concepts that emerged from the program were designated SA1, SA2 and SA3. These became the Airbus A319, A320 and A321. The A320 went on to be unveiled in Toulouse and took its first flight in February 1987. The aircraft went on to establish itself as the backbone of short and medium haul fleets across the world. The introduction of the A320neo in 2015 effectively stole the march to efficiency in the narrowbody space from Boeing, who's slower introduction of the 737 MAX (and subsequent delays) contributed to Airbus having the highest net orders of any OEM for 4 straight years at the start of 2023. How large is the global A320 fleet? Commercial aircraft fleet data from IBA Insight reveals 4,954 active A320 aircraft as of 22 February 2023. The largest global operator of the A320 is China Eastern Airlines, who currently operate 256 aircraft. Who has the most A320 aircraft on order today? Whilst the first firm orders for the A320 came from British Caledonian Airways, French flag carrier Air France became the launch customer for the type with an initial order for 50 aircraft. The first of these was delivered to the airline on 26th March 1988. The introduction of the IAE V2500 engine option in the early 1990s further diversified the appeal of the entire family, with notable mainline European fleets utilising IAE powered Airbus aircraft. The introduction of the A320neo brought the new generation CFM LEAP-1A and PW1100GM engines into the picture, offering up to 15% more fuel efficiency according to Airbus. As of 22nd February 2023, IBA Insight reveals there are 2,352 active orders for A320 aircraft, which includes all variants. The largest single active order for the aircraft comes from Indian low-cost carrier Indigo, who have 180 A320neo aircraft on order. What is the outlook for Airbus A320 aircraft values? “The Airbus A320-200 continues to be a crucial part of operator’s fleets worldwide and, as evidenced by the secondary market activity we observed in the second half of 2022, the A320-200 still retains a relatively high level of liquidity” says Hashen Hawawasam, Head of Commercial Aircraft Valuations. “IBA expects the A320-200 Market Value to Base Value relationship to stabilise in 2023. The A320-200 has begun its conversion program into a freighter aircraft with one A320-200P2F aircraft currently in service, owned by ST Engineering Aerospace and now operated by Pradhaan Air Express. Given the demand for narrowbody aircraft in recent months and the lack of supply of newer generation aircraft, IBA expect the value performance of the A320-200 to remain stable in 2023, with the potential for increases depending on the market supply and demand.” “In the long term, once the supply chain issues are resolved, more A320neo aircraft are expected to enter the market, particularly given that Airbus has ambitions to increase production rates in the years to come. This will inevitably replace A320-200 aircraft in large numbers thus causing a significant suppression in the values and lease rates of these aircraft. That said, we do expect to see some appetite in the P2F program (albeit limited to the number of conversions) but this will support the demand for engines and parts over a longer period.” IBA Insight flexibly illustrates multiple asset, fleet, and market positions, actual and potential, to inform client choices and identify acquisition opportunities. Immediate access to crucial aircraft, engine, lease rate and fleet data eases appreciation of historic and future aircraft concentrations and operator profiles.   Sign up for a system demo

Articles

Introducing IBA’s New Engine Market Intelligence Reports

We are pleased to announce the launch of IBA’s first Engine Market Intelligence Reports. Combining our independently verified data from IBA Insight with IBA’s expert advisory opinion, these dynamic reports are simple, comprehensive, and regularly updated to reveal prevailing trends for major aircraft engine types. Our new engine reports complement our existing Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports, delivering the most holistic aviation intelligence on the market. What's included? Status, production, and retirements in the engine fleet Top in-service operators and engine models Common aircraft / engine combinations Engine types by airline Market values and lease rates Utilisation comparisons between engine types Backlog and delivery schedules Operator data and analysis Asset liquidity Expert commentary from our ISTAT-certified appraisers Download our sample report for the CFM LEAP-1A

a white and orange air india 787 passenger jet aircraft taking off with blue skies

Articles

What is the value of Air India’s Airbus and Boeing aircraft order?

We look at the likely value of Air India’s order in comparison to the list price, and examine the combined TATA group fleet today.

A Boeing 747 jumbo jet landing with wheels down with a sunset sky in the background

Articles

The evolution of the Boeing 747 fleet - 1966-2023

Tuesday 31 January 2022 marks a pivotal moment in aviation history, the delivery of the last production Boeing 747. The aircraft, registered N863GT, is the 1,574th and final 747 to roll of the production line.

Image of an aeroplane ready for boarding

Articles

Introducing Schedules Data to IBA Insight

We are delighted to announce that airline Schedules data powered by OAG is now available in our aviation intelligence platform, IBA Insight. This empowers our users to understand global and operator capacity like never before, with access to both historic schedules and future data, up to 12 months in advance.

a flybe dash 8 prop aircraft taking off in a blue sky

Articles

Significant competition and high operating costs fuel the demise of Flybe

Exploring the factors that led to the second collapse of the British regional carrier.

passengers waiting in an airport terminal to board an aircraft through a window

Articles

Airline Consolidation - the outlook for 2023

What types of operators and which global regions are most likely to see consolidation in 2023?

an md11 jet airliner aircraft on the ground at an airport with a blue sky behind

Articles

On this Day in 1990 - First Flight of the MD-11

The McDonnell Douglas MD-11 made its first flight on 10 January 1990. We used IBA Insight to reveal the status of the global MD-11 fleet today.

An airplane wing with blue sky and clouds in the background

Articles

Key Trends for Global Aviation in 2023 - The IBA Perspective

In this short report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Geoff van Klaveren and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values.

A man in a high visibility jacket and ear defenders stands in front of a Dash 8 Q400 turboprop aircraft with a grey sky in the background

Articles

Ask the Appraiser - How are Regional Jet and Turboprop aircraft values performing?

In the second edition of our ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Phil Seymour examine the trajectory of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, identifying the hottest trends and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the market.

An orange, red and white COMAC ARJ21 aircraft lifting off from a runway

Articles

Ask the Appraiser - valuing the COMAC ARJ21

Our experts shine a light on the value and lease rate outlook for the ARJ21 and look at the wider market outlook for the Chinese regional jet.

A boeing 747-400 freighter aircraft on takeoff with a grey sky behind

Articles

Ask the Appraiser: An Overview of the Freighter Market

In the first in our series of ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans examined the trajectory of freighter values, identified the hottest trends in P2F conversions, and explored the impact of macroeconomic factors on the air cargo market.

A LATAM Boeing 787 Dreamliner jet aircraft landing on a runway at an airport with buildings in the background

Articles

Latin America leads global capacity recovery

IBA Insight has revealed that the Latin American region is leading global air traffic recovery, with capacity now exceeding pre-pandemic levels recorded in 2019.

a loganair embraer jet taking off from an airport with sky and other airplanes in the background

Articles

Why Loganair is a unique prospect for it's next owners

IBA's Manager of Airline Analysis Neil Fraser shares his perspectives on the sale of Scottish carrier Loganair.

Articles

Transavia plan to utilise Airbus A320neo in France next year

IBA's Neil Fraser comments on Transavia's likely deployment of Airbus aircraft for summer 2023.

a boeing 747 jet passenger aircraft on takeoff with a blue sky in the background

Articles

Israeli 4 engine ban will most likely hit converted 747 freighters

Israel has announced the ban of four-engine aircraft in Israeli airspace, in an effort to reduce noise and air pollution. Whilst the ban is mandated to come into effect from March 2023, it is believed that operators may be discouraged from operating such aircraft even sooner.

Articles

3 key factors that drive global fleet efficiency

IBA's ESG Consultancy experts use IBA NetZero to regularly track the CO2 efficiency of the global commercial aircraft fleet.

A black and white Airbus A350 passenger jet aircraft climbing into a blue sky with few cloudssky with wheels down

Articles

Widebody aircraft values update – August 2022

IBA's expert team share the latest updates to widebody commercial aircraft values as part of our mid-year market update webinar.

A group of passengers in a terminal building at an airport

Articles

3 challenges to continued air traffic recovery

Aviation intelligence from IBA Insight reveals 3 key challenges that are slowing the global recovery of air traffic.

An Airbus A320 neo aircraft jet on the ground at an airport with open windows and flags in the cockpit

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft values update – August 2022

IBA's expert team share the latest updates to commercial aircraft values as part of our mid-year market update webinar.

Articles

U.S. expected to approve inspection plans and allow resumption of 787 deliveries

It has been reported that the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) may have approved Boeing's inspection and modification plan for the 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft, which would allow the OEM to resume deliveries of the type.

passengers board a wizz air airbus a320 aircraft using a set of steps with mountains and a blue sky in the background

Articles

Airline capacity reduces by 16% amidst schedule cuts

In our recent Mid-Year Market Update webinar, our experts used IBA Insight to explore the impact of airline schedule cuts on capacity and mapped the likely trajectory for the coming months.

Articles

Boeing dominates Farnborough airshow aircraft orders, but Airbus dominates global backlog

Using IBA Insight, we summarise key highlights from the Farnborough Airshow 2022.

A line up of Frontier Airlines airbus aircraft on the ground at an airport

Articles

Ranked - The most efficient domestic airline operations in North America

Carbon emissions data from IBA NetZero has revealed the most efficient airlines operating in the North American domestic market on a CO2 per-seat per-mile basis.

A commercial airliner Airbus A320 on the ground at an airport with a mountain in the background.

Articles

Asia Pacific region leads airline start-ups in 2022-2023

One year beyond our original analysis, we have re-examined the global picture for start-ups, identifying where they are, and the classes of aircraft they plan to use by 2023.

People move around a busy airport terminal building

Articles

Airline and airport capacity at highest levels since 2019 this summer

Our research reveals a positive overall trend in global capacity at airlines and airports globally, with performance edging ever closer to 2019 levels. Using this intelligence, we have mapped out the best and worst performing areas by airline and airport capacity as of mid-2022.

An SAS Airbus A350 in flight in blue cloudless skies

Articles

Ranked – the most improved airlines by unit CO2 emissions

Aviation intelligence from IBA Insight has revealed that key global airlines have reduced their scope one CO2 emissions by up to 17% since 2019. This follows an overall drop of 5.9% in CO2 emissions from commercial aviation since January 2018 (based on CO2 per-seat kilometer).

A digital rendering of an Akasa Air Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in flight

Articles

4 Start-up airlines to watch out for in 2022 and 2023

IBA's Finlay Grogan highlights 4 new operators from around the world that we will be watching closely in the coming months.

commercial airline aircraft parked at an airport in the rain

Articles

Pent up travel demand delays airline failures

IBA's Chief Economist Dr. Stuart Hatcher identifies that demand is changing the relationship between oil price, USD, and airline failures.

A digital render of a Boeing 737 Max 10 aircraft in flight

Articles

Which IAG airlines will operate the high-density 737 MAX?

Following IAG's order for the Boeing 737 MAX 8200 and Boeing 737 MAX 10, our experts explore which IAG airlines are likely to operate the high density variant.

A Boeing 787 Dreamliner on takeoff from an airport with grass, runway and sky in the background

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - April 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for April 2022 includes a spotlight on ABS structures.

A Comac C919 passenger jet aircraft on takeoff with sky and buildings in the background

Articles

Who has ordered the most Comac C919 aircraft?

As the first customer C919 completes its inaugural test flight, we look at the largest orders for the Chinese narrowbody.

A digital rendering of an Embraer 190 passenger to freighter conversion aircraft in the livery of Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC)

Articles

Nordic Aviation Capital confirmed as launch customer for Embraer E-Jet freighters

What does the first order for E-Jet conversion slots mean for Embraer's freighter conversions?

A Boeing 737 jet cargo aircraft with it's cargo door open

Articles

Boeing 737-800 leads passenger to freighter fleet growth in 2022

Our recent webinar highlighted the aircraft types driving the growth in global passenger to freighter conversions.

Articles

Welcome to the new-look IBA. Insights in flight.

IBA is pleased to unveil exciting updates to our brand and services.

A group of Russian S7 airlines Airbus A320 jet airliner aircraft with airbridge steps attached at an airport

Articles

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

A Ural airlines Airbus A320 passenger jet on the ground at an airport with grass and sky in the background

Articles

How many aircraft are being illegally re-registered by Russian airlines?

We take a look at how many aircraft have been re-registered in Russia to circumvent sanctions on Russian aviation.

A visualisation of a dial labelled CO2 being turned down by a hand

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - March 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for March 2022 includes a spotlight on regional aircraft lessors.

A passenger in an airport with a suitcase

Articles

UK airline capacity will be close to 2019 levels in Summer 2022

Using schedules data, we explored UK airline seat capacity as we move into the Summer season of 2022, identifying that seat capacity is likely to reach just short of 30 million seats by August 2022.

A group of Aeroflot aircraft at the gates of Moscow airport

Articles

How long can Russian airlines maintain their aircraft?

IBA's experts examine how long Russian operators can keep aircraft flying with a limited supply of parts.

Passengers wandering aimlessly through airport departures with an EasyJet aircraft in the background

Articles

Why the post-Covid travel boom is compounding flight delays in the UK

Exploring the connection between an increase in flights and cancellations in the UK, April 2022.

Articles

Regional aircraft engine values update - March 2022

The latest trends in regional aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA's InsightIQ.

A jet engine fitted to an Aeroflot aircraft in flight

Articles

Which aircraft engines are most exposed to the Ukraine crisis?

IBA's insight has identified that engine lessors are far less exposed to the impacts of the Ukraine Crisis than aircraft lessors.

IBA NetZero

Articles

What does global temperature rise mean for aviation?

Luisa Barnes, Aviation Analyst [email protected] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a report stating that climate change is set to breach the warming limit, set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By the year 2027, they warn of a global 1.5°C temperature rise for the first time and a 2 in 3 chance that within the next five years, we’ll exceed the crucial 1.5°C threshold during a one-year period. So overall, the IPCC expects the next five years to be the hottest ever on record. What’s more, on top of the global warming from anthropogenic activities, it is probable that the oscillating weather system ‘El Niño’ will force temperatures to record levels and profound emission mitigation is urgently needed if we are to avoid irreversible damage.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - April 2023

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to investments in aviation, and authorities across the world are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net-zero emissions, and their real term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

Articles

IBA Sustainability Watch - March 2023

The latest news and trends in sustainable aviation from IBA's ESG Consulting team

Image of an aeroplane wing with a mountain in the background

Articles

IBA's Carbon Index - What Happened in December 2022?

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. This time, we use IBA NetZero to shine a light on the EU ETS scheme and what it means for operators and portfolios.

A ryanair aircraft on the ground at an airport next to a fuel truck

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - October 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. In our latest analysis, we use IBA NetZero to shine a light on regional attitudes to emerging CORSIA emissions regulation.

An embraer aircraft taking off from a runway

Articles

Take your emissions analysis and mitigation strategies to the next level

Our aviation emissions intelligence platform is designed to give you breadth, accuracy, and analytical superpowers!

AN Air Transat Airbus A321neo aircraft on the ground at an airport with a blue sky in the background

Articles

New generation aircraft to drive further emissions efficiency improvements by 2025

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis leverages IBA NetZero's scenarios and projections to forecast the mix of emissions by aircraft type in 2025 based on expected retirements and deliveries.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - August 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for August 2022 includes a spotlight on the most efficient airlines globally by region.

Articles

Israeli 4 engine ban will most likely hit converted 747 freighters

Articles

3 key factors that drive global fleet efficiency

IBA's ESG Consultancy experts use IBA NetZero to regularly track the CO2 efficiency of the global commercial aircraft fleet.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - July 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for June 2022 includes a spotlight on the efficiency of lessors, focussed on regional jets and turboprops.

An ANA Boeing 787 dreamliner sits at a gate at an airport surrounded by catering trucks and service vehicles

Articles

Ranked – the most efficient lessors in the Asia Pacific region

Aviation carbon emissions intelligence from IBA NetZero has revealed the most efficient major aircraft lessors in the Asia Pacific region on a CO2 per-seat per-mile basis.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - June 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for June 2022 includes a spotlight on the efficiency of lessors in the APAC region.

Articles

When will new aviation technologies become available?

As part of our recent webinar, ‘Net Zero – an impossible target for aviation?' our experts explored the 4 new technologies in aviation decarbonisation, and the realistic timescales for their introduction.

Articles

Volotea – the most improved short haul airline in Europe by unit CO2 emissions

Co2 emissions data from IBA NetZero has revealed that Volotea has shown the most significant improvement in scope one CO2 emissions since 2019. This is based on unit CO2 emissions per available seat kilometre.

Articles

Ranked - The most efficient domestic airline operations in North America

Carbon emissions data from IBA NetZero has revealed the most efficient airlines operating in the North American domestic market on a CO2 per-seat per-mile basis.

An american airlines jet on the ground at an airport surrounded by vehicles, with an orange sky in the background

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - May 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest retrospective analysis for May 2022 includes a spotlight on the North American domestic market.

A pair of hands cradle a globe with an aircraft in flight

Articles

Aviation's Future: Introducing IBA NetZero

IBA is pleased to announce the launch of IBA NetZero. This revolutionary tool enables the aviation industry to model risk by simulating and forecasting the cost of future emissions mitigation.

Articles

Ranked – the most improved airlines by unit CO2 emissions

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - April 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for April 2022 includes a spotlight on ABS structures.

A jet airliner aircraft being refuelled at an airport with a fuel truck in the foreground

Articles

Sustainable Aviation Fuel offtake agreements ramp up after 2021 peak

IBA's Tim Boon looks at the ramp up in Sustainable Aviation Fuel offtake agreements since 2013.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - March 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for March 2022 includes a spotlight on regional aircraft lessors.

A British Airways Airbus A320neo aircraft in flight in a cloudy sky with wheels extended

Articles

British Airways takes delivery of first UK commercially produced SAF

British Airways has taken delivery of UK-made Sustainable Aviation Fuel from Phillips 66 Limited

An Air Transat A321neo aircraft in flight in a cloudy sky

Articles

Narrowbody vs widebody - which aircraft are more profitable and efficient on transatlantic routes?

We use our Carbon Emissions Calculator to examine the profitability and CO2 implications of the transatlantic narrowbody.

A visual representation of a hand turning a dial reading 'CO2'

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - February 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for February 2022 includes a spotlight on the CO2 efficiency of popular aircraft engines fitted to widebody and narrowbody aircraft.

A virgin atlantic airways Airbus A350-1000 XWB in flight

Articles

Virgin Atlantic commits to Sustainable Aviation Fuel agreement with ExxonMobil and Neste

Virgin Atlantic recently signed a new deal with Neste and ExxonMobil to supply 2.5 million litres of Sustainable Aviation Fuel 'SAF', which is expected to be delivered to London Heathrow airport in the first half of 2022.

concept image: CO2 dial being turned by a hand

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Aircraft, Airlines and Lessors - January 2022

IBA has published it's updated aviation Carbon Emissions Index, ranking the best performing aircraft, airlines and lessors by CO2 emissions.

Articles

Can US airlines sustainably grow fleets with SAF and fleet renewal?

IBA's explores how 4 major US airlines could use Sustainable Aviation Fuels, carbon offset and fleet renewal to grow their fleets whilst avoiding an increase in overall CO2 emissions.

A graphical illustration of a reduction in CO2 emissions

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Aircraft, Airlines and Lessors - December 2021

IBA has published it's updated aviation Carbon Emissions Index, ranking the best performing aircraft, airlines and lessors by CO2 emissions.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Aircraft, Airlines and Lessors - November 2021

Read IBA's updated Aviation Carbon Emissions Index. The article ranks aircraft & more by CO2 emissions. Find out more here.

A British Airways Airbus A320 passenger jet airliner on the ground at Gatwick Airport with Norwegian Air and EasyJet aircraft parked in the background

Articles

How to Verify Airline CO2 Emissions Results

Discover how our Carbon Emissions Calculator can independently verify an operator's reported Scope 1 CO2 emissions.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Aircraft, Airlines and Lessors - October 2021

Read IBA's October-November 2021 article on the Aviation Carbon Emissions Index. Ranking aircraft, airlines & more by CO2 emissions. Find out more here.

A row of British Airways long haul jet airliner aircraft on the ground at Heathrow Airport in London

Articles

IAG CO2 Emissions Independently Verified by IBA Carbon Emissions Calculator

We compared CO2 emissions data published by IAG to IBA's InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, identifying a close correlation between the results.

Passengers boarding a Ryanair Boeing 737 aircraft with door open and airstairs extended

Articles

Ryanair CO2 Emissions in line with IBA's Carbon Emissions Calculator

CO2 emissions data published by Ryanair matches closely to figures from IBA's InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, highlighting the fidelity of IBA's CO2 data.

A Kenya Airways Boeing 787 in flight above trees with wheels down

Articles

Kenya Airways - Fleet and CO2 Emissions Analysis

We used InsightIQ to look at the Kenya Airways fleet, and CO2 emissions trends on flights between London and Nairobi.

A Qatar Airways Airbus A330 jet passenger aircraft on take off with landing gear down.

Articles

Aviation Carbon Emissions Case Study - Qatar Airways

Using data from IBA's InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, we demonstrate a CO2 emissions analysis for the widebody aircraft fleet of Qatar Airways.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Aircraft, Airlines and Lessors - September - October 2021

View our Carbon Index Spotlight data for October 2021

A preview of IBA's aviation Carbon Emissions Index on an Apple iPad tablet computer

Articles

Benchmark Aviation CO2 Emissions with IBA's Carbon Emissions Index

IBA is proud to announce the launch of our new Aviation Carbon Emissions Index. A new standard for aviation CO2 analysis.

A digital rendering of a Faradair BEHA electric aircraft taking on passengers on the ground at an airfield

Articles

5 Things you wanted to know about electric aircraft

Using your queries, we have endeavoured to answer 5 top questions you had about electric aircraft.

An aerial view of Cornwall's Newquay Airport showing runways, taxiways and surrounding fields

Articles

Cornwall Newquay Airport Experiences Resurgence in Domestic Travellers

We combined analysis from IBA's aviation intelligence platform InsightIQ with other sources to examine the resurgence of air travel to Cornwall, one of the UK's most popular staycation destinations.

A Wizz Air A321 NEO aircraft on an airport runway, with thrust reversers and spoilers open, and landing gear down.

Articles

Wizz Air CO2 Emissions in line with IBA's Carbon Emissions Calculator

Recent CO2 emissions data published by Wizz Air matches closely to figures from IBA's InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, highlighting the fidelity of IBA's CO2 emissions data.

A digital render of an Airbus A321 NEO aircraft in Jet2 livery

Articles

Jet2 Places Order for 36 A321neo as part of Fleet Renewal Plans

British low-cost leisure airline Jet2 has placed an order for 36 Airbus A321 NEO aircraft according to news published by Airbus on 31 August 2021. Image: Airbus

An Airbus A321 NEO LR aircraft in flight amongst the clouds

Articles

Airbus A321 Neo LR - The New Go-to for Green Transatlantic Travel?

With the steady rise in narrowbody aircraft flying across the pond, is the Airbus A321neo LR the new 'go-to' transatlantic narrowbody aircraft for the environmentally and money conscious traveller and operator?

A China Airlines Cargo Boeing 747-400 Freighter in flight

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - How Green is China's Aviation Industry?

Since the 1980's, China's aviation sector has seen a rapid rise from being virtually non-existent in the late 20th century, to the second largest in the world by 2005.

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - DHL Express orders 12 Electric Alice Aircraft

DHL Express has placed an order for 12 electric Eviation Alice aircraft, with delivery anticipated in 2024. The order represents the freight operator's first foray into electric aircraft.

Articles

How will French Domestic Flight ban effect Air France Emissions?

Covid-19 has dealt a significant blow to air travel demand in Europe, and the emergence of multiple variants and the relatively slow vaccination rollout have exacerbated the market's struggles.

image of an aeroplane with its engines on

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Lufthansa Fleet Evolution Drives Reduction in Carbon Emissions

Intelligence from IBA's InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator has identified a significant drop in Lufthansa's Carbon footprint, driven by an aircraft evolution strategy across the passenger fleet.

Articles

Rolls Royce Commits to 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capability for Civil Aircraft Engines

Rolls-Royce are to test all its civil aircraft engines currently in production to ensure their compatibility with 100%-sustainable aviation fuel by 2023.

Articles

A320 NEO Reduces Carbon Emissions by 18% on EasyJet Gatwick to Tenerife Route

Using unique data from IBA's InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, we analysed EasyJet flights between London Gatwick Airport and Tenerife South Airport.

Articles

Will Open Rotor Engines be the next great leap in Decarbonisation?

General Electric and Safran Group are to collaborate on development of a viable open rotor engine, 'RISE', destined to power narrowbody aircraft by the mid-2030's. The joint venture between the US and French aero engine giants intends to make workable a concept first touted in the 1970s. The open rotor engine dispenses with the traditional pod housing the fan blades seen on high bypass turbofan engines.

Valuations

Articles

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

Singapore Airlines Plane on the run way taking off

Articles

New generation widebody lease rates are rising

New generation widebody lease rates are rising with some lag and more subdued value gains, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour,  Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in our recent webinar. The latest trends in new generation widebody aircraft values and lease rates. Source: IBA Insight. The Airbus A350-900 was at US$925,000 per-month in January 2021 with an increase to US$954,000 per-month in January 2023. We predict this will have risen to US$1,007,000 per-month by July 2023.   Base value movements are more varied for new generation widebody aircraft. The Boeing 7879, 787-10, Airbus A350-900 and A350-1000 continue to grow, whereas the 787-8 and A330-900 fell between 2019 and 2022 (but stabilised into 2023). The latest mid-life widebody aircraft value and lease rate trends. Source: IBA Insight The base value decline for mid-life widebody aircraft has eased with the prospect of some market value recovery through the first half of 2023. A 12-year-old A330-300 was valued at US$20.04 million in 2022, and is predicted to drop to US$19.967 million in 2023. Some mid-life widebody lease rates are increasing, with a 12-year-old B777-300ER sitting at US$314,000 per-month in October 2022 and predicted to rise to US$350,000 per-month by July 2023.  Don’t miss our latest webinars Stay tuned for our forthcoming webinars covering new and existing asset classes. In the coming months we be taking a deep dive into value trends for Engines, EVTOLs, business jets, helicopters, and freighters. Follow us on LinkedIn for updates on our next webinar.  Discover our market-leading aircraft valuations services IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.  Find out more about IBA Valuations

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft values set to climb through 2023

Articles

Key Trends for Global Aviation in 2023 - The IBA Perspective

Articles

Ask the Appraiser - How are Regional Jet and Turboprop aircraft values performing?

Articles

Ask the Appraiser - valuing the COMAC ARJ21

Our experts shine a light on the value and lease rate outlook for the ARJ21 and look at the wider market outlook for the Chinese regional jet.

Articles

Ask the Appraiser: An Overview of the Freighter Market

Articles

Widebody aircraft values update – August 2022

IBA's expert team share the latest updates to widebody commercial aircraft values as part of our mid-year market update webinar.

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft values update – August 2022

IBA's expert team share the latest updates to commercial aircraft values as part of our mid-year market update webinar.

Articles

Regional aircraft engine values update - March 2022

The latest trends in regional aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA's InsightIQ.

Articles

Which aircraft engines are most exposed to the Ukraine crisis?

IBA's insight has identified that engine lessors are far less exposed to the impacts of the Ukraine Crisis than aircraft lessors.

A view of an orange jet engine fitted to an EasyJet Airbus A320neo aircraft

Articles

Utilisation driving greater value stability for narrowbody aircraft engines

The latest trends in narrowbody aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

A LOT Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft on the ground against the backdrop of a blue sky

Articles

Widebody aircraft value trends update - February 2022

IBA's InsightIQ has identified key widebody aircraft value trends, published in our latest aircraft values webinar.

A Lufthansa Airbus A320 jet aircraft on the ground at an airport

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft value trends update - February 2022

IBA's InsightIQ has identified key narrowbody aircraft value trends, published in our latest aircraft values webinar.

A man reading an IBA Aircraft Market Intelligence Report on a laptop computer

Articles

4 Top reasons to use IBA's Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports

IBA has launched new Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports, giving you best-in-class insight into prevailing and future aviation trends.

An Emirates Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on takeoff with landing gear extended and a control tower in the background

Articles

Reviewing Airbus and Boeing Widebody Aircraft Values in 2021

IBA has recently updated InsightIQ with its latest widebody aircraft value opinions with respect to fixed-wing commercial passenger aircraft as of July 2021.

An Airbus A321neo jet airliner aircraft in flight

Articles

Tracking Airbus and Boeing Narrowbody Aircraft Values in 2021

A review of narrowbody jet aircraft value trends in 2021

A Flybe Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 turboprop aircraft in flight

Articles

Aircraft Values - Best Regional Aircraft of 2021

Regional air travel has proven a key driver in aviation recovery, but which jets and turboprops have performed best by value in 2021?

A DCH* Dash 8 Q400 aircraft on the ground at an airport, with a marshaller wearing a high visibility jacket in the foreground

Articles

Turboprop Aircraft Values Show Positive Trends

Using aviation intelligence fleet and values data from our InsightIQ platform, IBA has published adjustments to aircraft values across the global Turboprop fleet.

An Embraer E175 Regional E Jet on the apron at an airport

Articles

Smaller Regional Jets Show Positive Value Adjustments

Using aircraft values data from our InsightIQ aviation intelligence platform, IBA has published adjustments to regional jet aircraft values in August/September 2021.

An Airbus A320 NEO aircraft in flight, operated by IndiGo airlines.

Articles

Newer Generation Narrowbody Aircraft Values Show Positive Trend

Newer generation narrowbody aircraft values are performing the strongest overall, with aircraft attracting good investor interest and displaying positive value trends.

A Cathay Pacific Boeing 777-300 aircraft taking off from a runway

Articles

Older Widebody Aircraft Values Suffer Pandemic's Influence

IBA has adjusted base values for older widebody aircraft. Our analysis looks at the state of the market through the lens of two key aircraft types.

Articles

Aviation Intelligence: Flyr Launches Norwegian Low-Cost Operation - June 2021

Norwegian airline Flyr officially started operations in June 2021, with a domestic network setup to operate from Oslo Gardermoen Airport (OSL). Flyr intends to operate using the low-cost carrier business model, with a demand driven business model.

Articles

Key Aircraft Values Trends to Expect in July 2021

In anticipation of IBA's forthcoming July Mid-Year Aircraft Values Update Webinar, we have been looking ahead at some key aviation industry trends to expect in aircraft valuations. Though many will not see base value adjustments for many aircraft asset types, we are forecasting further market value softening in 2021 for some.

Articles

Will HNA Group's Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

Articles

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe's first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline's take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report

Articles

Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism

In our 2021 forecast for the year ahead, Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer at IBA, shares IBA's opinion on traffic, transactions, asset values and airline failures in 2021. 'Now that 2020 is behind us, we can begin to look forward to 2021 and beyond; we can consider whether there are signals we can be optimistic about. A long, slow vaccination process is underway but, although this is a positive development, when do we realistically foresee the current market's harsh conditions will start to ease?'

image of a graph and data on the screen with US dollars over the top

Articles

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

This month Adil Slimani, IBA's Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values. 'Unprecedented' and 'Covid' have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic's tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I'll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV). For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Articles

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe's Re-Emergence?

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Articles

Covid-19's Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

Boeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.

Articles

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

Articles

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation? Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average. As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs. This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

image of data across a screen with US dollars

Articles

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

Articles

IBA BizJet Valuations, January 2020

Buying aircraft, whether private or commercial, can be a complicated, time-consuming process with potential for plenty of twists, turns, pitfalls and surprises along the way. Thorough due diligence is crucial before purchasing decisions are made; the values involved mean errors can cost millions of dollars.

Articles

What Is A Landing Slot And How Much Is One Worth? December 2019

IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations, having completed a variety of assignments at airports including LHR and LGW. These valuations have been for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots.

Articles

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots. David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast. If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

Articles

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

Articles

How Would Aircraft Appraisers Value Concorde Today? March 2019

With the recent 50th anniversary of the Concorde's maiden flight, IBA's Phil Seymour, CEO, discusses how aircraft appraisers would value Concorde today.

Articles

Impairment of Asset Values Set to Become a Real Issue

After a long period of stability and growth in the aviation industry the prospect of asset impairment is starting to rear its head, according to Phil Seymour, the CEO of IBA.

image of a man inspecting the underside of a small aircraft

Articles

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

Market Analysis

Articles

3 Influential women in aviation history (you may not have heard of)

This International Women's Day, we asked the IBA team to highlight the achievements of 3 influential women who made their mark in aviation history, from Spitfires to Concorde.

Articles

One year on – what’s happened to Russian airline capacity?

Articles

Latest financial results indicate a positive outlook for Delta and United

The latest financial results published by two of the ‘big four’ US carriers indicate a positive outlook moving into 2023.

Articles

Airline Consolidation - the outlook for 2023

What types of operators and which global regions are most likely to see consolidation in 2023?

Articles

Key Trends for Global Aviation in 2023 - The IBA Perspective

Articles

Latin America leads global capacity recovery

IBA Insight has revealed that the Latin American region is leading global air traffic recovery, with capacity now exceeding pre-pandemic levels recorded in 2019.

Articles

Carbon Index Spotlight on Airlines, Aircraft and Lessors - August 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. Our latest analysis for August 2022 includes a spotlight on the most efficient airlines globally by region.

Articles

Why Loganair is a unique prospect for it's next owners

IBA's Manager of Airline Analysis Neil Fraser shares his perspectives on the sale of Scottish carrier Loganair.

Articles

Transavia plan to utilise Airbus A320neo in France next year

IBA's Neil Fraser comments on Transavia's likely deployment of Airbus aircraft for summer 2023.

Articles

Israeli 4 engine ban will most likely hit converted 747 freighters

Articles

Widebody aircraft values update – August 2022

IBA's expert team share the latest updates to widebody commercial aircraft values as part of our mid-year market update webinar.

Articles

3 challenges to continued air traffic recovery

Aviation intelligence from IBA Insight reveals 3 key challenges that are slowing the global recovery of air traffic.

Articles

Narrowbody aircraft values update – August 2022

IBA's expert team share the latest updates to commercial aircraft values as part of our mid-year market update webinar.

Articles

U.S. expected to approve inspection plans and allow resumption of 787 deliveries

Articles

Airline capacity reduces by 16% amidst schedule cuts

In our recent Mid-Year Market Update webinar, our experts used IBA Insight to explore the impact of airline schedule cuts on capacity and mapped the likely trajectory for the coming months.

A SAS Airbus A320neo aircraft climbs into the air with a mountain in the background and a blue sky above

Articles

SAS files for Chapter 11 - 2 key challenges facing the airline

We explore the 2 key challenges facing Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) as it files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US.

Articles

Asia Pacific region leads airline start-ups in 2022-2023

One year beyond our original analysis, we have re-examined the global picture for start-ups, identifying where they are, and the classes of aircraft they plan to use by 2023.

Articles

Airline and airport capacity at highest levels since 2019 this summer

Articles

Ranked – the most improved airlines by unit CO2 emissions

Articles

4 Start-up airlines to watch out for in 2022 and 2023

IBA's Finlay Grogan highlights 4 new operators from around the world that we will be watching closely in the coming months.

Articles

Pent up travel demand delays airline failures

IBA's Chief Economist Dr. Stuart Hatcher identifies that demand is changing the relationship between oil price, USD, and airline failures.

Articles

Which IAG airlines will operate the high-density 737 MAX?

Following IAG's order for the Boeing 737 MAX 8200 and Boeing 737 MAX 10, our experts explore which IAG airlines are likely to operate the high density variant.

Articles

Boeing 737-800 leads passenger to freighter fleet growth in 2022

Our recent webinar highlighted the aircraft types driving the growth in global passenger to freighter conversions.

Articles

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

Articles

UK airline capacity will be close to 2019 levels in Summer 2022

Using schedules data, we explored UK airline seat capacity as we move into the Summer season of 2022, identifying that seat capacity is likely to reach just short of 30 million seats by August 2022.

Articles

How long can Russian airlines maintain their aircraft?

IBA's experts examine how long Russian operators can keep aircraft flying with a limited supply of parts.

Articles

Narrowbody vs widebody - which aircraft are more profitable and efficient on transatlantic routes?

We use our Carbon Emissions Calculator to examine the profitability and CO2 implications of the transatlantic narrowbody.

An image of a cargo plane being loaded with freight

Articles

4 Key air cargo trends to watch for in 2022

Using a combination of data sources together with IBA's own research and leading InsightIQ aviation intelligence platform, we have identified 4 key trends that will define the performance of the air freight market in 2022.

A United Airlines Boeing 777-300 aircraft in flight

Articles

Which full service airlines have the most aircraft orders?

Airline fleet data from IBA's InsightIQ aviation intelligence platform reveals the top 5 full-service airlines by aircraft orders, showcasing fleet renewal strategies.

An IndiGo Airbus A320neo jet in flight takeoff

Articles

Which low-cost airlines have the most aircraft orders?

Airline fleet data from IBA's InsightIQ aviation intelligence platform reveals the top 5 most active low-cost airlines by aircraft orders, showcasing fleet renewal strategies.

An Aeroflot Russian Airlines A320 in flight

Articles

Russia & Ukraine - Which aircraft lessors are most impacted by sanctions?

Which aircraft leasing companies are most exposed to economic sanctions on Russia?

Articles

Virgin Atlantic commits to Sustainable Aviation Fuel agreement with ExxonMobil and Neste

A computerised rendering of a Singapore Airlines Airbus A350F Freighter aircraft in flight above the clouds

Articles

Airbus dominates commercial aircraft orders at the Singapore Air Show 2022

Aviation Intelligence data from IBA's InsightIQ reveals 88 firm total aircraft orders were received from 4 airlines and 1 lessor at the 2022 Singapore Air Show. An additional airline signed a letter of intention for 7 Airbus aircraft.

A digital rendering of a Frontier Airways Airbus A320neo in flight.

Articles

What could the Spirit-Frontier Airlines fleet look like post-merger?

Spirit Airlines and Frontier Airlines are to merge, forming the fifth-largest airline in the United States.

Articles

IBA's Business Jet Market Report January 2022

The global business jet fleet numbers almost 23,000 operational aircraft. With the abnormalities seen in business aircraft supply and demand since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic having a significant effect on the market, IBA's Business Jet report shine a light on current market trends in business aircraft. Some key takeaways include: Though slow and cautious at the start of the pandemic, the Bizjet market has proven resilient andprosperous whilst wider commercial aviation has suffered There is high demand for business jets, and we find ourselves in a fast-paced environment in 2022 This high demand, coupled with low supply, has led to a seller's market Inflated Bizjet values are likely to return to normal as commercial aviation continues to recover ESG targets are likely to prove a key challenge to the market over the coming years Download the full report

Articles

4 Top reasons to use IBA's Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports

IBA has launched new Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports, giving you best-in-class insight into prevailing and future aviation trends.

An image of an Alitalia Airbus A320-200 in flight with landing gear wheels and flaps extended

Articles

IBA records 63 airlines failures and restructurings 2020-2021

IBA's market update has identified airline failures and restructurings from 2020-2021, and highlighted the number of aircraft grounded as a result.

An Aeromexico Boeing 737-800 passenger jet in flight with landing gear undercarriage and flaps down extended

Articles

Aeromexico restructuring plan approved by creditors

Aeroméxico has become the latest Latin American Flag Carrier to begin the exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings

A graphic rendering 2 Boeing 737 Max aircraft in flight in Allegiant Airways livery

Articles

Allegiant Air orders 50 Boeing 737 Max aircraft

Allegiant Air's Boeing 737 MAX order signifies a shift to modernity for the carrier's fleet. Image: Boeing

An Avianca Airbus A330-200 aircraft in flight with landing gear extended

Articles

Is Avianca's low cost model a ticket to a brighter future?

As Avianca exits Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, we ask if the carrier's move towards a low-cost carrier model its ticket to a brighter future?

Japan Airlines Aircraft on an Airport Runway

Articles

IBA's Japan Aviation Market Report - December 2021

IBA's latest market report covers the state of Japanese aviation. We take a deep dive into airlines and lessors, and forecast what's ahead for the market and the region. Download the report here.

Articles

8 Aviation industry trends to expect in 2022

IBA's Head of Advisory Geoff Van Klaveren and Chief Revenue Officer Stuart Hatcher prove their expert opinion on the outlook for the aviation industry in 2022, identifying 8 key trends across utilisation, fleets, orders, airlines, lessors and the environment.

Articles

Reviewing Airbus and Boeing Widebody Aircraft Values in 2021

IBA has recently updated InsightIQ with its latest widebody aircraft value opinions with respect to fixed-wing commercial passenger aircraft as of July 2021.

Articles

Kenya Airways - Fleet and CO2 Emissions Analysis

We used InsightIQ to look at the Kenya Airways fleet, and CO2 emissions trends on flights between London and Nairobi.

A digital rendering of a Northern Pacific Airlines Boeing 757-200 aircraft inflight over snowy mountains

Articles

Transpacific Start-up Airline Northern Pacific to follow the 'Icelandair Model'

Northern Pacific Airways plans to bring an Icelandair style stopover model to the transpacific market.

A Jet2 Boeing 737-800 in flight with landing gear and flaps extended

Articles

Jet2 Confirms Order of 15 more Airbus A321neo Aircraft

UK based leisure carrier Jet2 has announced the intention to acquire 15 Airbus A321neo aircraft.

An Amazon Prime Air Boeing 737-800BCF aircraft in flight with high lift devices and landing gear extended

Articles

Amazon Air Fleet Grows with E-Commerce Market Boom

Amazon's Prime Air operation commenced flights in 2016 when it secured the use of a single Boeing 767-200BDSF.

A view of a narrowbody aircraft cabin, featuring aircraft seats and passengers

Articles

Narrowbody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We investigated aircraft reconfiguration trends through the lens of two narrowbodies, the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320.

An interiorview of a widebody aircraft cabin, with rows of aircraft seats and in flight entertainment screens

Articles

Widebody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We examined widebody aircraft reconfiguration to identify key trends for popular Airbus and Boeing types.

A digital rendering of a Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner in the livery of Norse Atlantic Airways

Articles

Norse Atlantic - Is the Low Cost Long Haul Market Ready for Take-off?

Norse Atlantic will be the newest long-haul low-cost airline to join the competition in hope of capitalising in this market segment.

Passenger to Freighter Conversions

Articles

Nordic Aviation Capital confirmed as launch customer for Embraer E-Jet freighters

What does the first order for E-Jet conversion slots mean for Embraer's freighter conversions?

Articles

Boeing 737-800 leads passenger to freighter fleet growth in 2022

Our recent webinar highlighted the aircraft types driving the growth in global passenger to freighter conversions.

Articles

4 Key air cargo trends to watch for in 2022

A Boeing 767-300ER freighter aircraft operated by UPS airlines in flight with landing gear down

Articles

Which aircraft make the most cost-efficient freighter conversions?

Which commercial aircraft make the most cost-effective freighter conversions? We use InsightIQ to examine the state of play in the market.

Articles

Amazon Air Fleet Grows with E-Commerce Market Boom

Amazon's Prime Air operation commenced flights in 2016 when it secured the use of a single Boeing 767-200BDSF.

Articles

Older Widebody Aircraft Values Suffer Pandemic's Influence

IBA has adjusted base values for older widebody aircraft. Our analysis looks at the state of the market through the lens of two key aircraft types.

Articles

Can P2F Conversions fulfil the unprecedented demand for Global Air Cargo?

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.

Articles

4 Key Drivers of Demand in the Global Air Cargo Market

As well the vital role it continues to play in supporting the global economy, the air cargo market is now becoming increasingly important in powering global COVID vaccine distribution.

Articles

The changing shape of the P2F conversion market

A new batch of P2F converted freighters is currently entering the market but what makes an aircraft appropriate for conversion? Here, IBA considers the factors influencing suitability and anticipates the market's likely direction.

Articles

A New Era of Widebody Freighters

For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.

image of an aeroplane flying above buildings

Articles

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA's Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family.

Articles

IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019

Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.

Articles

What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?

IBA Report: issued March 2019 Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.

image of an aeroplane engine being built in a factory

Articles

IBA's Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019

Freighter Conversions - capitalising on the resurgence in demand Freight volumes are continuing to trend on an upward trajectory and at a solid rate when compared to historical data. It should be noted however, that due to the inventory restocking cycle having concluded and manufacturing export orders remaining low, demand factors are lacking when compared to 2017. This paper looks at the current and future freighter market, production, routes into the market and takes a close look at a B737 conversion.

Articles

IBA Foresee 1000 P2F Conversions Being Required In The Next 17 years

According to IATA's March 2018 Freight Analysis report, global freight volumes slowed to a 22-month low, 1.7% year-on-year in March. This outcome represents the slowest pace of annual growth since the early part of 2016. The decline in growth can predominantly be attributed to the end of the restocking cycle which was one of the drivers behind the high growth figures. IATA have cautioned against reading too much into the most recent figures and expects growth of 4-5% overall for 2018.

Engines

Articles

Turbulence ahead for some regional aircraft engines, whilst others continue to outperform the market.

IBA's experts examine the latest trends in regional engine values and utilisation in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

Mature Widebody Engines Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels

Articles

New generation narrowbody engine values surge beyond 2019 levels

IBA's experts Jamie Davey and Phil Seymour took a deep dive into the latest trends in engine values in our latest webinar 'IBA Insight - How are engine values performing?'.

Articles

Regional aircraft engine values update - March 2022

The latest trends in regional aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA's InsightIQ.

Articles

Which aircraft engines are most exposed to the Ukraine crisis?

IBA's insight has identified that engine lessors are far less exposed to the impacts of the Ukraine Crisis than aircraft lessors.

Articles

Utilisation driving greater value stability for narrowbody aircraft engines

The latest trends in narrowbody aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

A view from the wing of a Boeing 747-400 aircraft showing wingtip and jet engines

Articles

Freighters buck the trend in latest widebody aircraft engine values

The latest trends in aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

Articles

Freighter Engine Recovery leads over Passenger Aircraft Engines

Utilisation of freighter aircraft engines is leading over passenger, but such comparisons should be viewed in context, writes David Archer.

A close up view of a jet engine mounted on a Boeing 737

Articles

Narrowbody Aircraft Engine Value Trends Update - October 2021

IBA has reviewed and updated our forecasts for narrowbody aircraft trends in October 2021.

A jet engine mounted on the wing of an Airbus A330 aircraft on takeoff, with flaps and landing gear down

Articles

Widebody Aircraft Engine Value Trends Update - October 2021

IBA has reviewed and updated our forecasts for widebody aircraft engine trends in October 2021.

A close up view of an aircraft jet turbofan engine's fan blades

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Tracking Narrowbody Engine Recovery

We analysed utilisation trends for the four most prominent engine families in the narrowbody market to track market recovery.

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Demand for Engine Shop Visits Vital to Aviation Market Recovery

Whilst passenger demand is the key driver in the recovery of the aviation market as a whole, a core indication of health of the engine market is in shop visit demand. This can dictate value performance, lease demand, investor appetite and overall liquidity of the engine market.

Articles

Rolls Royce Commits to 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capability for Civil Aircraft Engines

Rolls-Royce are to test all its civil aircraft engines currently in production to ensure their compatibility with 100%-sustainable aviation fuel by 2023.

Articles

Will Open Rotor Engines be the next great leap in Decarbonisation?

Articles

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China's Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Articles

Will The Recent Pratt & Witney 4000-112 Engine Failure Have A Lasting Impact On Storage Levels For Older Pratt & Whitney-Powered 777 Aircraft Fleet?

In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA's analyst Jie Zhou uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.

Image of an aeroplane wing and engine in the sky

Articles

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

Articles

Engine Shop Visit Demand

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Articles

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Articles

What is the Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings on the LEAP-1B? November 2019

For CFMI, it would appear that the impact of the 737 MAX grounding has not been detrimental to the LEAP-1B. There remains a strong market outlook for this engine and looking at the Base Value, Half Life, it is performing well and is on par with competing engines in the market. As illustrated in the chart below, there has been no impact on values.

Articles

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

Articles

IBA Identifies A New Trend In Mature Aircraft Asset Management, October 2019

Using the valuation tool InsightIQ, it considers the lease rate comparison of several A320 vintages and their respective engines. London/Dublin/Tokyo - October 3rd 2019: IBA, the independent aviation advisory, valuation and consulting firm has identified a growing trend in mature aircraft management where the leasing of core engine assets is managed separately to the aircraft as a whole. This is becoming increasingly evident based upon the strengths of the CFM-56-5/7B and V2500-A5 engines within the A320 and 737NG fleets.

Articles

Is There An Impact On The Engine Market From The 737 MAX Groundings?

IBA Report by David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst: issued September 2019 The grounding of the 737 MAX fleet has been one of the most widely discussed aviation events of recent history. Following two tragic accidents, the 737 MAX fleet remains grounded until the world's aviation authorities deem it fit for service. Speculation has inevitably turned to the impact on the market and the longer term ramifications for both the aircraft and the engines.

Articles

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

image of a man looking inside an aircraft engine

Articles

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

image of a man building an aircraft engine

Articles

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

Aircraft Management

Articles

Could Saudi ambitions trigger a Middle East power play?

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

Articles

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

Articles

How many aircraft are being illegally re-registered by Russian airlines?

We take a look at how many aircraft have been re-registered in Russia to circumvent sanctions on Russian aviation.

Articles

Can P2F Conversions fulfil the unprecedented demand for Global Air Cargo?

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.

Articles

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?

Articles

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Articles

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

image of Norwegian airlines flying over snowy mountains

Articles

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.

Articles

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960's when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Articles

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

Articles

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

Articles

Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020

Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key 'industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.

image of an aeroplane flying through the sky

Articles

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Articles

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

Repossessions

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

Articles

How many leased aircraft have returned from Russia?

How many leased aircraft have been recovered from Russia by aircraft leasing companies?

Articles

What is the future for Stobart Air's ATR fleet?

Stobart Air ceased operations on Saturday 12th June 2021. A regional carrier operating flights across the UK and Ireland, the Stobart Air fleet consisted of 12 ATR72-600 aircraft and one ATR42-600 aircraft according to data from IBA's InsightIQ platform.

Articles

3 Impacts of Covid-19 on Aircraft Repossession and Remarketing Timelines

IBA's Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA's submission to the report 'Aircraft Repossession Planning - Practical Considerations' produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.

image of 2 men with paperwork walking away from an aeroplane

Articles

The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?

A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.

Articles

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

image of the underside of an aircraft at an airport

Articles

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

Transitions

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

Articles

Narrowbody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We investigated aircraft reconfiguration trends through the lens of two narrowbodies, the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320.

Articles

Widebody Aircraft Reconfiguration Trends

We examined widebody aircraft reconfiguration to identify key trends for popular Airbus and Boeing types.

Articles

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

Articles

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Articles

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

image from inside an aeroplane, from the back looking forward

Articles

Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020

Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.

Articles

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

Articles

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

Articles

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

Articles

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

Helicopters

Articles

Helicopter Values Guide 2021-22

The commercial helicopter market is a resilient one, founded with well established and experienced stakeholders who are well practiced at managing the inevitable peaks and troughs the industry faces. The phrase 'Keep Calm and Carry On' is well versed, but requires intuition to sense and feel. Whilst 2020 was a year of challenge, it was also a year that the commercial helicopter sector rose to that challenge. Covid19 removed 99% of the fixed wing transport aircraft revenue stream. In contrast, only a fraction of this loss impacted the rotary wing world. Many contracts continued undisturbed despite hygiene requirements and protective screens on helicopters. Sectors such as law enforcement, air ambulance sectors, fire support, SAR, Border Control, Offshore utility and private/VIP continued to operate. Whilst the Coronavirus pandemic doesn't yet have an eradication policy, it Is coming under increasingly effective control that is slowly allowing all to ease back into business unscathed. New helicopter may have slowed, but the need to replace, renew or expand fleets of in-service helicopters continues. Whilst a helicopter might have up to 40 years of revenue earning capacity, it may only be suitable for its primary role for part of this time. Adaptable helicopters (that can be reconfigured economically and with limited time on the ground) are at a premium, and we can see that played out though the popularity of brands and types entering service. Medium helicopters are notably popular as they can be re-configured for secondary roles at minor expense. These are more commonly known as multi-versatile, multi-role assets. Annual totals of new Helicopter deliveries in 2020 were at a 15-year low, yet have recovered by more than 25% by Q3 of 2021. The value of these units delivered has also increased by 25%. Click the link below to download a copy of our Helicopter Values Guide 2021-22 report. Download a Copy

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - India's First Gift City Leasing Company

Vman aviation services have launched in India. Read our analysis of the first aircraft leasing company in the 'Gift City'.

Image of a Helicopter flying at an angle

Articles

How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020

IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.

Articles

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

Articles

How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?

With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Ofﬁcer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.

Business Jets

Articles

IBA's Business Jet Market Report January 2022

Lease Rates

Articles

New generation widebody lease rates are rising

Articles

Is the clock ticking for Power by the Hour deals?

Articles

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

Articles

Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates

Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates. As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.

Articles

Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.

As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.

Articles

IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019

The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.

Articles

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

image of graphs and data with a hand holding a pen

Articles

How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?

The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time. Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.

Articles

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

Articles

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

Airline Credits

Articles

Aviation Intelligence - Does a Global Crisis Drive Airline Start-ups?

While it is becoming clear that the post-pandemic market is providing an opportunity, are global crises in general a breeding ground for brave and bold start-ups?

A man behind a screen of data, reaching to touch a plane

Articles

What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis. In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

drawing of an aeroplane flying down to the right followed by a trail left behind

Articles

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air's Planned Schedule?

The pandemic's disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA's powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.

Articles

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

Using InsightIQ's analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Articles

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Articles

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates. For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

image of graphs and data being presented

Articles

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Articles

3 Challenges faced when returning stored aircraft to service

As the world's widebodies return to the skies, we explore the key challenges of RTS processes, and specific implications for widebody aircraft.

An image showing a yellow Spirit Airlines Airbus A320neo aircraft on the ground at an airport

Articles

Low cost airline capacity to grow past pre-Covid levels in 2022

IBA has forecasted a sharp recovery in capacity and demand in our recent commercial aviation market update.

Articles

Airline Industry Analysis: The Impact of Oil Prices & Coronavirus

The historic correlation between high oil prices and airline failures is a proven trend. Combined with Coronavirus, they represent a clear and present danger to airlines.

Articles

Aviation Trends: Booking Spike Shows High Demand For Travel

Data from IBA's InsightIQ platform has revealed strong regional variations in flight data and recovery of load factors.

Articles

3 Impacts of Covid-19 on Aircraft Repossession and Remarketing Timelines

Articles

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China's Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Articles

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

Articles

The Evolving Structure of Japan's Aviation Market

Lewis Leslie, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Fleets and Values intelligence to explore the structure of the Japanese aviation market. Executive Summary 19% of the Japanese in-service aircraft fleet remains either parked or stored. Aircraft utilisation by Japanese airlines has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels, in line with global utilisation trends. However, the Japanese aviation market is robust and well-placed for growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region in coming years. Large scale fleet renewal is expected within the next 10 years, but the rate of replacement is uncertain due to delays to the Boeing 737 MAX. Sale and Leasebacks accounted for the majority of secondary market transactions in 2020 through to March 2021, with nine recorded. The volume of JOLCO transactions fell last year but is expected to recover as demand for new aircraft returns.

Articles

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

Finlay Grogan, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

Articles

China's Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

Articles

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

Articles

Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism

Articles

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

Articles

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

Using data from IBA's intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.

image of an aeroplane wing blocking the sun behind

Articles

Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta

Using fleet data from IBA's intelligence platform InsightIQ, it's possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.

Articles

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

Articles

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe's Re-Emergence?

Articles

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Image of plane tracking data on a world map

Articles

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what's in store for the A380?

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA's online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380's present fleet status:

Articles

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

Articles

Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?

Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere's summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

Articles

Engine Shop Visit Demand

Articles

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

Articles

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

Articles

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

image of a covid-19 sign with an aeroplane in the background

Articles

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Articles

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

Articles

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

an aeroplane flying over the empire state building

Articles

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

Articles

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020. The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak. In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic. In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021. IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era. In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the 'Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years. Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis. While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our 'Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this 'Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog. Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain. Although the Post Covid 'Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog. Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s. In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future. Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions. In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June. The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter. Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers. Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed. The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

Articles

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

image of an aeroplane flying above some trees

Articles

The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19

ICAO's Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.

Articles

How have the dynamics of the leasing market changed since Covid-19?

Pre-Covid, aircraft operating leasing was a very competitive space, capital having been flooding into the market over several years. Low interest rates drove increased interest in aircraft on operating leases as an investment class and we saw new players entering the market from Korea and, in particular, China. Many entities arose through joint ventures with existing European and North American lessors and via portfolio acquisitions.

Articles

Slashed Revenues and Job Losses in the time of Covid-19: How are Governments Supporting the Aviation Industry?

In this short article, IBA's advisory team uses current IATA data together with its own Covid-19 research to spotlight the pandemic's global influence on aviation industry jobs, revenues and capacity and details the extent of government support for some airlines.

Articles

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

image of an aeroplane wing through an aeroplane window

Articles

China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020

According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.

Articles

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

Articles

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

Articles

Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020

Articles

The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020

Coronavirus (also referred to as Covid-19) has placed us in totally unprecedented territory; its effects are not localised or industry-specific but touch all aspects of our lives. Government interventions to protect businesses and society will be considerably more widespread than in previous downturn-triggering events, so what happens next is not necessarily what we would 'normally' predict.

Articles

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

Articles

IBA assesses the repercussions facing the aviation finance sector due to Covid-19, March 2020

Stuart Hatcher, IBA's COO, says the impact of Covid-19 on airline and lessor finances will lead to a decline in aircraft values of over 10% for newer aircraft types and up to 30% for older aircraft in the short term.

image of a woman sat on her suitcase waiting at an airport

Articles

How Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact The Aviation Industry? February 2020

In early 2020, a previously unknown coronavirus struck Wuhan, capital of Hubei province and the most populated city in Central China with over 11 million inhabitants. Now known as Covid-19, the virus has spread rapidly across China and international travellers have taken it around the world. The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China to date disclosed that in China 70,640 people have been infected with 1,772 dead. The virus has yet to be contained and numbers are therefore still climbing.

Aftermarket & Parts

Articles

How long can Russian airlines maintain their aircraft?

IBA's experts examine how long Russian operators can keep aircraft flying with a limited supply of parts.

Articles

Freighters buck the trend in latest widebody aircraft engine values

The latest trends in aircraft engines you need to know, powered by IBA Insight.

Articles

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

Articles