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The aviation market in 2024 is expected to be a complex landscape. Despite forecasted improvements in economic conditions and global passenger recovery, fare compression, rising costs and OEM manufacturing issues will present challenges.Join IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 24th January to uncover the trends, risks and opportunities you need to be aware of in 2024.
It has been a year where the positive aviation news tilted the balance in the industry. Amidst the continuing recovery in post-pandemic customer demand, we have faced new challenges in consecutive interest rate rises, equipment supply constraints and aviation engine issues. As ever, the IBA team has been on hand to share our insights and expertise and support our clients worldwide. In this latest report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Dan Taylor and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values. Download the report If you have any further questions, please contact: [email protected]
Welcome to IBA’s November Sustainability Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.
IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.
IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has today launched IBA Airlines – a groundbreaking new airline insights platform that will enable the aviation industry to monitor airlines’ operational performance, and evaluate their financial position in detail.
In its post-summer aviation market update webinar, IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, forecast improving airline profits with a global average EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) margin of 9% in the 2025 financial year, compared to just 2% in 2022 and 7% in 2019 prior to the Covid pandemic.
Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand
IBA, the leading aviation market data and intelligence company, has today announced the acquisition of the Fleetwatch application from Aeromanage. Fleetwatch provides the aviation leasing and finance community with mobile device alerts, linked to aircraft flight events and status changes, using ADS-B data. The application provides enhanced visibility to key stakeholders around how aircraft are being operated, enabling proactive and reactive portfolio management, forming an integral part of their risk mitigation toolkit. Alongside IBA’s recently launched Data and News Alerting from its IBA Insight aviation intelligence platform, the Fleetwatch acquisition, and integration, further demonstrates IBA’s commitment to delivering its clients enhanced insights that can be leveraged to manage risk and drive value creation. IBA's President, Phil Seymour, says: “We are excited to be enhancing our aviation intelligence capabilities with this acquisition of Fleetwatch. It will now form an integral part of our suite of News and Alerting solutions, providing key industry stakeholders such as lessors, banks, investors and insurers with top class insights and live updates about their fleets.” Fleetwatch will provide subscribers to the IBA Insight platform with a range of information, via daily notifications, that can highlight a variety of significant aircraft use scenarios. Fleet/Aircraft Discrimination Users will be able to see if their aircraft are being over or under-utilised compared to the average. Users will also be able to track the aircraft’s flight lengths and distances and compare the average for that model at the same operator. This will enable users to assess evolving operational patterns and whether maintenance implications, such as reserve and compensation rates need to be adjusted for this, to forecast revenue scenarios in PBH (power by the hour) agreements, and to be alerted to return condition scenarios where under or overutilisation is a factor. Grounding Fleetwatch enables users such as lessors, banks and investors to see if their aircraft have been on the ground for prolonged periods, allowing them to contact the operator to enquire about any issues. Fleetwatch will alert users if their aircraft has been grounded for any more than two days, allowing aircraft owners to keep track of their leased fleets and identify any problems early. Prohibited Destinations Lessors, banks, investors and insurers can receive alerts from Fleetwatch which flag if their aircraft have entered prohibited destinations, enabling them to monitor operators’ compliance with contractual terms and any sanction restrictions. Ivan Borysenko, Senior Manager - Director at Aeromanage, said: “The insights that Fleetwatch provides will provide a significant addition to IBA’s aviation intelligence capabilities. It will give the IBA Insight platform users access to timely updates on aircraft status, allowing issues to be identified as early as possible and solutions developed.” -ENDS- About IBA IBA delivers the best of all worlds - deep aviation consultancy expertise, and cutting-edge and actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus. An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022, and being named 'Appraiser of the Year' by their clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation. The key to IBA’s success is its people – some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe – real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients. For more information, visit www.iba.aero IBA media contacts Charlie Hampton / Faye Clarke Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Mobile: +44 (0)7884 187297
IBA Weekly Date: 23/06/2023 (issue 32) Whilst Paris Air Show is known to be quiet on the last two weekdays, no one quite expected the absence of significant business that would continue until late on Monday. This quiet was broken by a blockbuster 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Air India then followed up by firming their 470 aircraft order the next day. The week had been flush with rumours of large orders, leading IBA to forecast a total greater than 2,000 aircraft. We did not hit that estimate. However, if Turkish Airlines had committed to their rumoured 600 aircraft order, we would’ve been very close! At the time of writing, on Friday lunchtime, the total orders including Firm, MOUs, LOIs and Options reached 1,303 aircraft, worth $72.4bn based on IBA’s 2023 Current Market Values. This is an impressive total, with only 2013 accruing a larger tally. A more interesting detail is that 1,160 (89%) were firm orders, the highest ever. Having firm orders is good news for the programmes in terms of long-term confidence in them as well as securing Pre-Delivery-Payments (PDP). Large orders will allow the operator to demand a superior price, however, the OEM may also be able to benefit from demanding higher PDP in the higher risk transactions. Operators appear to be firming up orders to secure delivery slots in an environment of supply delays. However, with orders of such scale, questions arise as to whether the local markets can accommodate the growth. This is especially the case when the two airlines making the largest orders are in the same country. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence Indian carriers dominated orders as expected The Airbus press conference on Monday got the tally off the ground, announcing 500 new A320 family aircraft for IndiGo. In numerical terms, this eclipsed the 470 Air India order that was firmed on Tuesday, with the Boeing and Airbus announcements happening almost simultaneously, as to avoid one getting more headlines. It is also worth noting that IndiGo already had a backlog of 485 aircraft, putting their new total just shy of the 1,000 mark. IBA values this new order at $28.0bn. Despite the numerical inferiority, IBA value Air India’s order at $33.1bn. This difference can be attributed to Air India also ordering widebodies. Their order in full was 220 aircraft, with Boeing (190x 737 MAXs, 20x 787s and 10x 777Xs) plus 250 aircraft with Airbus (140x A320neos, 70x A321neos and 40x A350s). There is also an option with Boeing for a further 50x 737 MAXs and 20x 787s), which would take their order total to 540. Unlike IndiGo’s Airbus loyalty, the order is split between the two large OEMs, reflecting the very mixed fleet of the Indian flag carrier and its present and future subsidiaries. Including widebodies in the order will likely solidify the airline’s dominant international market share (27.8% share compared to IndiGo’s 10.7% in 2023). The airline severely lags IndiGo in the domestic market share however (26.6% compared with 57.5% of IndiGo). Both are expecting to gain share from each other but will also be reliant on the market’s growth. Recent estimates have the Indian aviation market growing at 9% annually and the country has pledged $12bn to Indian infrastructure. Whether that can accommodate these 970 aircraft before their first flights, is another thing. Avolon led the lessors With the scale of the orders, one could be forgiven for thinking there were lots of participants. Among operators, Western Europeans were conspicuously absent, albeit Ryanair had placed a large 150 aircraft order (plus 150 option) pre-show. It was also the case with lessors. Avolon’s 40x 737s and 20x A330 order, as well as an 80 LEAP engine deal the only large business among them. Interestingly, Avolon’s ratio of orders to current fleet is getting closer to parity, similar to the likes of well-known speculative lessors like Air Lease Corporation (ALC). In an aircraft supply bottleneck, the lessor has more control over lease rental pricing. This is compared to an operator receiving multiple lessor offers for Sale and Leaseback. This relationship of course reverses in oversupply. Their A330s are expected to be delivered through 2026-2029, with the narrowbodies likely in the 2030s. We don’t know what the market will look like then, so these orders are therefore purely speculative. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence Airbus beat Boeing comprehensively The week had success for many OEMs with De-Havilland’s 49 aircraft orders and Embraer’s 28 up among pre-Covid levels. However, the gulf between Airbus and Boeing was quite sizeable. As discussed earlier, IndiGo operate solely A320 family aircraft which pulled the OEM far ahead in the narrowbody stakes. Airbus already led pre-show in total backlog with 8,546 aircraft to Boeing’s 7,069. When looking at the A320neo and 737 MAX alone, the Airbus advantage was 1,300. This is now wider. In the show, Airbus totalled 846 orders. This is over double Boeing’s 356 orders. What is particularly interesting is that Airbus also won on the widebody stakes this year, with 72 firm orders to Boeing’s 40 (excluding 20 on option). Boeing had exceeded Airbus in widebody orders in eight of the last ten years. Boeing will be hoping that production delays to the 777X don’t cause a turning point. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence This IBA Weekly was written by: Neil FraserHead of Consulting Neil FraserManager - Airline Analysis
IBA’s award-winning Valuations team will be sharing their latest insights on engine values in our new webinar series. In our second edition, Phil Seymour and Jamie Davey will reveal key trends to watch for in 2023, the impact of supply chains and inflation on engines values, values and lease rates update for popular engine types and parts and aftermarket updates. Click here to watch the recording
In the third edition of our IBA Insight series, Mike Yeomans, Denesz Thiyagarajan and Rami Abdel Aziz provided an overview of the eVTOL market, their top due diligence advice and the latest insight on residual values. Watch on Demand It’s estimated that 200 companies are currently working to manufacture electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs). So, what is the market demand for these new technologies, and what will the assets be worth? Topics covered will include: Market overview Development update and entry-into-service timelines Valuation drivers and dynamics Valuation case studies for selected eVTOL types Watch on Demand If you have any further questions, please get in touch with [email protected].
Luisa Barnes, Aviation Analyst [email protected] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a report stating that climate change is set to breach the warming limit, set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By the year 2027, they warn of a global 1.5°C temperature rise for the first time and a 2 in 3 chance that within the next five years, we’ll exceed the crucial 1.5°C threshold during a one-year period. So overall, the IPCC expects the next five years to be the hottest ever on record. What’s more, on top of the global warming from anthropogenic activities, it is probable that the oscillating weather system ‘El Niño’ will force temperatures to record levels and profound emission mitigation is urgently needed if we are to avoid irreversible damage.
How can the aviation industry, and more specifically aviation finance, tackle the existential challenges of ESG regulations? What are the ESG regulations and elements that you should be focusing on as an airline and a lessor? Join IBA’s dedicated ESG Consulting team to explore this and more in our upcoming webinar on Wednesday 26th April at 15:00 BST. Throughout the session, we'll share case studies and examine how specific airlines and lessors have implemented regulations such as EU ETS and CORSIA. Register here
IBA is the leading aviation data, intelligence and advisory company, providing award-winning solutions, valuations and asset management. With unrivalled data intelligence through IBA NetZero and IBA Insight, they work with airlines, financiers, aircraft manufacturers and leasing companies. IBA’s powerful combination of in-house expertise backed up with cutting-edge carbon emissions data from their IBA NetZero platform means IBA is well-adapted to provide industry players with critical support and guidance. In this film, we learn about ESG scoring and assessments, how decarbonizing by 2050 will impact ticket prices and profit and understand how IBA supports companies to achieve their ESG objectives.
Welcome to the Aviation Conversation. In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Denis Brailsford take a deep dive into the challenges faced by both airlines and lessors when redelivering aircraft, and how both parties can prepare for lease ends.
IBA’s award-winning Valuations team shared their latest insights on aircraft values across all major asset types in our new webinar series. In our first edition, Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald will reveal key trends across narrowbody and widebody aircraft, regional jets and turboprops, and freighters. Watch the recording
In this short report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Geoff van Klaveren and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values.
IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the third session of the series, join Phil Seymour and Mike Yeomans for an overview of the narrowbody market. Watch the recording Topics include: The trajectory of values and lease rates The state of supply and demand Fleet evolution What’s happening in the macroeconomic environment, and the impacts on the sector If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch with Mike Yeomans. The data used in this webinar is from IBA Insight, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. IBA Insight combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.
IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the final session of the series, join Phil Seymour and Rami Abdel Aziz for an overview of the helicopter market. Watch the recording
IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the first of the series, join our experts Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald for an overview of the freighter market. Watch the recording Topics covered include: The trajectory of freighter values and lease rates The state of supply and demand in air cargo The landscape for P2F conversions What's happening in the macro-economic environment, and the impacts on the sector If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch with Mike Yeomans. The data used in this webinar is from IBA Insight, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. IBA Insight combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.
Israel has announced the ban of four-engine aircraft in Israeli airspace, in an effort to reduce noise and air pollution. Whilst the ban is mandated to come into effect from March 2023, it is believed that operators may be discouraged from operating such aircraft even sooner.
Introducing IBA Insight & IBA NetZero – aviation finance's one-stop shop for intelligence. You need quick, intuitive access to the most accurate commercial aviation data. Our products are designed to provide you with seamless and simple analysis, prompting better asset decisions, enhanced risk management, and a full understanding of aviation decarbonisation strategies.
With our large team of award-winning ISTAT-qualified appraisers and over 30 years' proprietary data, IBA is a leading player in the valuations market. Working globally, we offer independent, impartial opinion and advice on the value of a range of asset types including aircraft, engines, helicopters, freighters and air cargo, landing slots and spares. Always striving to exceed clients' expectations, IBA's objective judgement supports the required security needed for loans, asset repossession, commercial development and remarketing.
IBA works with leading aircraft and engine leasing companies from around the world. Our depth of industry knowledge informs our expert advice so we can support clients through the investment cycle, inspiring confidence at every stage of their journey. From valuations, fleet selection and portfolio development to redelivery and remarketing at lease end, we accompany clients through every risk assessment and asset management activity during the life of the lease.
Aviation investment can be an intricate affair and, with significant financial stakes involved, leaving things to chance is not an option. Whether you are investing for the first time or an established player in the market, IBA can help you cut through the complexities of the asset class to better understand investment opportunities. We can work with you to support portfolio development, diversification and to meet strategic needs.
For over 30 years IBA has worked with global and regional airlines providing valuation and advisory services, aviation data intelligence and aircraft and engine redelivery support. Working collaboratively on a variety of aviation projects spanning the world, we fulfil clients' additional resource requirements and provide project management support wherever and whenever needed.
We take a resourceful approach to litigation support and dispute resolution, identifying thoughtful solutions that are tailored to our clients' legal strategy. Our access to over 30 years of proprietary aviation data, regular involvement in strategic M&A and aircraft management expertise affords us regular access to the typical areas of contention between parties. IBA assists clients directly or via their legal teams across many aspects ranging from insurance related settlement for aircraft damage or loss, to disputes between lessors and lessees - often at redelivery.
We work globally to support the MRO community with research of aircraft historical performance, aircraft and engine values, maintenance cost benchmarking, shop visit forecasts and competitive analysis for all fixed and rotary wing aircraft, parts and engines.
Voted Appraiser of the Year 2022, our fourth win in five years, IBA's success is driven by its teams of Consultants, Analysts, and ISTAT-certified Appraisers. It's their business to make your investments and assets outperform.
"Goshawk, and indeed Investec, could not have got to where it is today in aviation finance and leasing without the professional help, services and wise counsel of IBA and all its staff. We regard you as an essential partner in our path of growth, with a relationship that constantly grows and changes as both of our organisations do so."
Andy Carlisle, Chief Technical Officer: Goshawk
"CDB Aviation has a large and successful portfolio of aircraft with airlines from around the world. With full access to the IBA Insight platform, we have the right data intelligence to support our risk, remarketing and trading activity across our aircraft and engine portfolio."
Betty Chen, VP Pricing: CDB Aviation Lease Finance: CDB Aviation
"We have been working with IBA for a number of years, utilizing a number of their professional services. We have always found them to be a trusted partner. Their experience, global reach, speed of response and quality of service have been hallmarks of our long-standing working relationship."
Bradley Gordon, Head Aviation Finance: Africa: Investec
"Over the last 12 months we have been using the Advisory, Valuations and Intelligence services of IBA. Following a lengthy RfP process, IBA was appointed as the standout performer in a number of different areas but it was their advisory, valuations and specifically their market leading intelligence platform - IBA Insight, which really stood. With their Carbon Emissions Calculator, IBA Insight provides subscribers with comparative emissions intelligence as well as highly granular levels of detail across Aircraft and Engine Fleet and Values data."
Charlie Jenkins, CEO: AVIOCAP
"As a leading operator with a mix of owned and leased aircraft and engines, we are continuously managing, monitoring and optimising our comprehensive portfolio of assets. Intelligence from IBA Insight feeds into our pre-deal due diligence, portfolio monitoring processes and the commercial discussions with key stakeholders. We find IBA Insight's online aircraft and engine valuations, lease rates and the market analysis capability very useful when assessing new offers. The comprehensiveness and accuracy of IBA Insight data is highly regarded and supports our understanding of the aviation market."
Investment Management Directorate: Turkish AirlinesView more
"A large part of Six West's success to date has been our ability to capture, interpret and then manage the large amounts of data that surround global aircraft operations. We rely on intelligence to provide the fleet data we need and it impresses us every week."
Jason Williamson, Managing Partner: Six West
"We chose IBA's Carbon Emissions Calculator after a review of the market. It has been an invaluable source for our ESG Report for the Year 2021, which was published this week."
Joe McGinley, Head of Investor Relations: AerCap
"IBA has developed not just an accurate industry-wide carbon emissions model, but also the key functionality and risk analytics that deliver for aviation finance."
Mark Streeter, Managing Director, REIT, Airline/EETC, Aircraft Leasing, Rail, Parcel, Freight, Shipping, Transportation HG/HY Coverage, North America Credit Research: J.P. Morgan
"IBA goes the extra mile when it comes to customer service and delivery. They are responsive, reliable, and the quality of their aviation intelligence is highly recommended."
Sabri Gmira, Executive Director: Corporate and Structured Finance: ANZ