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InsightIQの利用によってIBAの記事の検索、航空関連財務、航空機資産マネージメントの研究、分析
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What is the trajectory of commercial aircraft values around the world? In our upcoming webinar, our experts will be sharing their views plus the latest market intelligence from InsightIQ on the speed of recovery, future value performance and what the implications are for aviation finance globally. Register Here Listen in to our panel of experts; Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Phil Seymour, Company President, as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Using intelligence from InsightIQ, topics covered include: Commercial Aircraft: How will aircraft values and lease rates move across narrrowbody and widebody aircraft? What are the driving forces behind future market movements? How and why have different ages and generations of aircraft been affected differently? What is IBA's opinion on what might happen for Q3/4 2021? Who should attend? This is a free session open to the aviation finance community. Can't make it?Register anyway, all registrants will receive a copy of the materials after the session. The data used in this webinar is from InsightIQ, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. InsightIQ combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here. Register Here
Flight data from IBA’s InsightIQ aviation intelligence platform shows that from the end of June 2019 to the end of 2021, domestic flights have dropped below 80% of the total for the first time since last summer.
As China plans to begin flight testing on the Boeing 737 Max, we analyse the potential impact on the market and competition with the A320 NEO.
As JetBlue completes its first test flight from New York to London Heathrow using its new Airbus A321LR, we use fleets, flights and orders data from InsightIQ to look at JetBlue and the state of play on the London - New York market.
Covid-19 has dealt a significant blow to air travel demand in Europe, and the emergence of multiple variants and the relatively slow vaccination rollout have exacerbated the market’s struggles.
While it is becoming clear that the post-pandemic market is providing an opportunity, are global crises in general a breeding ground for brave and bold start-ups?
The start of the aviation recovery is proving to be inconsistent. Some markets are being constrained by a combination of new virus variants, continued local restrictions, infection rates and the varying pace of vaccine rollouts, whilst other regions are experiencing solid levels of domestic traffic recovery. Join IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, for an update on current and future market trends across the globe. Listen in to our panel of experts; Stuart Hatcher, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Phil Seymour, Company President, as they uncover, review and discuss global trends across aviation finance. Using intelligence from InsightIQ, topics covered include: How fast are markets recovering? How are OEMs performing and are we seeing order swaps? What are the latest transactions trends? What are the lease expiry dates forecasting? How are aircraft values and lease rates performing? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Phil Seymour Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo
The recovery in air traffic is starting to gather momentum on both international and domestic routes, according to data revealed today by IBA at its half year Market Update.
Intelligence from IBA’s InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator has identified a significant drop in Lufthansa’s Carbon footprint, driven by an aircraft evolution strategy across the passenger fleet.
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.
Norwegian airline Flyr officially started operations in June 2021, with a domestic network setup to operate from Oslo Gardermoen Airport (OSL). Flyr intends to operate using the low-cost carrier business model, with a demand driven business model.
Aircraft lease rates for new delivery narrowbody models have continued to slip, but some causes for optimism exist. We used IBA's InsightIQ trends data to highlight some positives.
Demand for U.S air travel is increasingly encouraging. Numbers of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints on 13th June 2021 surpassed 2 million for the first time since early March 2020.
Join IBA, the 2021 Appraiser of the Year, for an overview of the aviation market in China as we uncover, review and discuss trends across aviation finance in China and Asia Pac. This webinar was delivered in Mandarin. Using intelligence and analysis from InsightIQ, Join our China team from IBA - David Jiang, General Sales Manager, Dezhi Zhu, VP Commercial and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, as they discussed the following topics: What are the current key industry trends for China? Will 2021 deliver for airlines globally? Are aircraft values stabilising? The changing face of Airline Fleets Will demand for Cargo and P2F continue to grow? What are the changing trends in Retirements? Transactional Activity – Trading Sales and Capital Activity The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: David Jiang. Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo
As well the vital role it continues to play in supporting the global economy, the air cargo market is now becoming increasingly important in powering global COVID vaccine distribution.
Using unique data from IBA’s InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, we analysed EasyJet flights between London Gatwick Airport and Tenerife South Airport.
IBA in association with Norton Rose Fulbright offered a free virtual masterclass reviewing best practise for managing lease re-negotiations, remarketing and repossessions. Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, was joined by a panel of experts, including Robin Springthorpe, Partner at NRF, to share and provide insight and guidance to operators and the finance community. In this hour-long session, the panel discuss current trends for unscheduled returns and defaults, considerations when re-negotiating leases, best practise for remarketing aircraft and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations. Key outputs include: Risk levels in the current climate Contingency planning Default and termination rights Notices and lease termination formalities Recovering assets, records and maintain asset value Avoiding unwanted repossession cost Remarketing opportunities Lease re-negotiations Lease clauses Lessons learnt from the pandemic The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Peter Walter Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo
Stobart Air ceased operations on Saturday 12th June 2021. A regional carrier operating flights across the UK and Ireland, the Stobart Air fleet consisted of 12 ATR72-600 aircraft and one ATR42-600 aircraft according to data from IBA’s InsightIQ platform.
General Electric and Safran Group are to collaborate on development of a viable open rotor engine, ‘RISE’, destined to power narrowbody aircraft by the mid-2030’s. The joint venture between the US and French aero engine giants intends to make workable a concept first touted in the 1970s. The open rotor engine dispenses with the traditional pod housing the fan blades seen on high bypass turbofan engines.
The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?
In anticipation of IBA’s forthcoming July Mid-Year Aircraft Values Update Webinar, we have been looking ahead at some key aviation industry trends to expect in aircraft valuations. Though many will not see base value adjustments for many aircraft asset types, we are forecasting further market value softening in 2021 for some.
The historic correlation between high oil prices and airline failures is a proven trend. Combined with Coronavirus, they represent a clear and present danger to airlines.
Data from IBA’s InsightIQ platform has revealed strong regional variations in flight data and recovery of load factors.
Tim Boon, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator to explore British Airways’s LAX-LHR route and how new gen aircraft and sustainable aviation fuel could impact carbon emission efficiencies.
IBA in partnership with KPMG, join forces to explore key market indicators for the aviation industry. Together, the panel discuss global market performance and the outlook for the coming months. Will the traditionally busy Northern Hemisphere summer deliver for the industry? Using InsightIQ aviation intelligence, join Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans from IBA, and Kieran O'Brien from KPMG, as they discuss the following questions: What are the current key industry trends across regions? Will we see more consolidation in the leasing space? What is the outlook for airlines in the next 6 month? Will the “new” ABS structures improve credit risk and cash retention? Are asset values stabilising? Is the industry preparing for tighter ESG within aviation? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Mike Yeomans Discover what makes InsightIQ the leading aviation intelligence platform. Book a demo
Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.
There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees. IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate. 1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC). Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC Read the full case study here Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study: Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR. All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ. If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo
Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.
IBA, the leading independent aviation analytics and advisory company, has been crowned Appraiser of the Year 2021 in the prestigious Airline Economics Aviation 100 Awards. This is the third time in four years, and the fourth time to date, that IBA has secured the title, having previously won in 2012, 2018 and 2020.
ルイス・レスリー シニアーアビエーションアナリスト IBA 鑑定士は、日本のアビエーション市場を探究するために、Insight IQフリートと評価インテリジェンスを使っています。 概要 日本の就役航空機フリートの19％は、駐機または保管機である。 日本の航空会社による航空機の利用率は、世界的な傾向と同様に、まだコロナ禍以前のレベルまで回復していない。 しかし、日本の航空市場は堅調で、今後数年間でアジア太平洋地域の成長機会に恵まれる。 今後10年以内に大規模なフリートの置き換えが見込まれているが、Boeing 737 MAXの遅延により、その割合は不確実である。 2020年から2021年3月までの流通市場取引ではセール・アンド・リースバックが9件記録され、大部分を占めた。 JOLCOの取引量は昨年減少したが、新しい航空機需要が回復するにつれて同取引量も回復すると予想される。
IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory consultancy, has delivered a presentation on the key trends impacting the global aviation sector to the Japanese investment community.
スチュワート ハッチャーCRO、マイクイェオマンス取締役、ジョンデューリーアジアビジネスディベロップメントマネージャーが、”InsightIQ”からの分析を利用して、下記トピックを討論します。 航空機価値のパフォーマンス 航空機フリートの変更時期 OEMアクティビティ 航空機として使用後の利用トレンド 移行アクティビティ – セールストレンド及びキャタルアクティビティー パワーポイント資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。 ご不明な点、意見、フィードバックがございましたら、次の連絡先までお問い合わせください。John Duley
IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has set out a range of carbon reduction strategies that can be adopted by aircraft lessors.
Increasingly, aviation finance is being required to demonstrate ethical credentials and environmental concern. IBA’s advisory team discuss current and future policy requirements, initiatives and market developments to help navigate and understand future requirements to meet investor and stakeholder needs. Using analysis and real world carbon emissions intelligence from InsightIQ, join Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, Ian Beaumont, CEO, Tim Boon, Aviation Analyst and ESG lead, and Michael Halaby, Halaby Aero Limited as they discuss the following topics: What are the planned development initiatives from major OEMs? How are industry bodies regulating the industry, and what is the impact? What information and analysis will aviation finance need to demonstrate? What actions can companies take to reduce/offset emissions? Will SAF be a realistic option for airlines? What green credentials are investors looking for and why? Are green bonds a lifeline for the aviation industry? If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch: Tim Boon The slide deck is available to download here. The analysis and intelligence used in this webinar is from our new Carbon Emissions Calculator from InsightIQ. Tailored for airlines and aviation finance, InsightIQ CEC is an independent, unbiased calculator of emissions data based on real-world flights, aggregated to compare emissions by: aircraft, organisations, geographic distribution and portfolios. See our Carbon Emissions Calculator in action
The impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, affecting all aspects of the aviation industry, but how does this compare to previous downturns? Using InsightIQ Fleet, Values and Trends data, IBA’s Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, compares the impact of Covid-19 to previous downturns (including 9/11, the SARS crisis and the global financial crisis) and discusses future market opportunities. Topics covered include; the impact on orders by region, composition, retirement trends, market values and deliveries. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please contact: Jie Zhou
2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis. In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.
As we approach the first anniversary of global travel restrictions and the extraordinary levels of grounded aircraft due to Covid-19, IBA in partnership with Split Rock Aviation, join forces to explore ABS vehicles. Together, the panel review ABS market performance, resilience and how the structures have and will need to adapt for the future. Using InsightIQ data from IBA, join Phil Seymour and Clay Smith as they discuss: How has the market performed? What are the mechanisms to provide cash for maintenance? How will vehicles deal with early returns? What is the impact from lease holidays and the impact on cash flows? How have ABS asset values changed? What is the market appetite for new transactions? How have structures adapted and prepared for the future? The slide deck is available to download here. Voted Appraiser of the Year 2020, our award-winning engine specialists, are here to help. Get in touch if you have any further questions, comments or feedback: Phil Seymour
- ETS covers only 11% of commercial aviation emissions in 2020 - - Premium seating and older aircraft impact emissions efficiency - Independent carbon emissions analysis for airlines and lessors, aircraft portfolios and regions is now easily accessible following the launch today of a Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC) by the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.
Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact for aircraft leasing following the announcement of AerCap’s intention to acquire GECAS. AerCap’s announcement on 10th March 2021 of its intended acquisition of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) will, if approved, give it a 54% holding of a superpower lessor which owns and manages an in-service fleet approaching 2,100 aircraft, has an order backlog of more than 500 units and an aggregate customer base of nearly 300 operators. As announced by both parties, General Electric-owned GECAS will receive USD 24 bn in cash from AerCap along with USD 111.5 m newly issued AerCap shares and USD 1 bn AerCap notes/cash. With diverse geographical distributions and varying customer base and asset type exposures, what impact will a leasing giant in control of almost 14% of the entire fleet have on the aviation sector and rival lessors?
The aircraft engine market is showing early signs of recovery from the worst effects of the Covid-19, but is not set to return to pre-pandemic levels until the mid-2020s, according to leading aviation data and advisory company IBA.
Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?
エンジン資産の価値とリース料金の変化の背景にある原動力のより明確な理解が得られます。IBAの経験豊富で受賞歴のあるエンジンスペシャリストによる新しいウェビナーシリーズ。 3つのセッションの最後に、エンジンスペシャリストのパネルがエンジン市場に焦点を当てて、解説します。パネルは、以下の質問とトピックについて説明致します。 エンジン市場の最新動向はどのようなものか？ 市場センチメントは変化しているか？ ナローボディ機とワイドボディ機のエンジン価値はどのようなパフォーマンスをしているか？ リース料は軟化しているか？ 工場送り予測はどのように変化しているか - IBAの最新の見解 パワーポイント資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。 2020年度年間最優秀鑑定士に選ばれた受賞歴のあるエンジンスペシャリストがサポート致します。 ご不明な点、意見、フィードバックがございましたら、次の連絡先までお問い合わせください。David Archer
Demand for freighter aircraft continues to grow strongly as a result of Covid-19, but values and lease rates remain suppressed by an oversupply of feedstock aircraft, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.
In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA’s analyst Geoffroy Robin uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.
貨物機の資産価値および価値とリース料金の変化の背景にある原動力のより明確な理解が得られます。IBAの経験豊富で受賞歴のある評価スペシャリストによる新しいウェビナーシリーズに参加しましょう。 3つのセッションの内2つ目のセッションでは、ISTAT公認上級鑑定士パネルが貨物機市場に焦点を当てます。パネルは、以下の質問とトピックについて説明致します。 貨物機に対するIBAの資産価値とリース料金はどのように変動しているか？ IBAの最近の市場動向の背景にある原動力は何か？ 様々なプログラム間で転換需要はどれくらい高いか？ どのような燃料が利用可能で、価格設定にはどの程度競争力があるか？ IBAの2021年における見通し パワーポイント資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。 このセッションがお客様の事業に関連していたおり、有用であったと思っていただければ幸いです。ご不明な点、意見、フィードバックがございましたら、Jonathan McDonaldまでお問い合わせください。
InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.
New generation widebody and narrowbody aircraft have seen only modest declines in their market values despite the enormous challenges of Covid-19, according to leading aviation industry consultant IBA.
航空機資産の価値と、価値およびリース料金変化の背景にある主な要因をより明確に理解しましょう。新しいウェビナーシリーズ「コロナ渦での挑戦」に参加して、IBAの経験豊富で受賞歴のある鑑定スペシャリストからアドバイスを受けましょう。パネルでは、次の質問とトピックについて説明いたします。- IBAの航空機価値とリース料金は、ナローボディ機、ワイドボディ機、ターボプロップ機などの資産クラス間でどのように変化しているか？- の最近の市場動向の背景にある主な要因は何か？航空機の年齢や世代が異なれば、どのようなに異なる影響を受けるか、またそれはなぜか？- IBAの基本価値の変更の理由は何か？- 2021年に何が起こるかに関するのIBAの見解はどのようなものか？ スライド資料はこちらからダウンロードできます。 このセッションがお客様のお役に立てれば幸いです。 ご不明な点、コメント、フィードバックがございましたら、Mike Yeomansまでお問い合わせください。
Despite its best efforts, the Covid-19 pandemic failed to deflect all stakeholder interest within the aviation industry away from environmental and sustainability concerns. In January 2020 IBA published its well-received ‘Aviation and the Environment’ report and in response to market demand, we have just released our 2021 version. Download your copy here In this short podcast, IBA’s Phil Seymour (President & Head of Advisory) and Tim Boon (Aviation Analyst and ESG Specialist) discuss current regulation and compliance information, emerging green finance initiatives including sustainability loans and OEM investment and research activity. Additionally, the pair share details of IBA’s latest initiative, our InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator. Available in the coming weeks, this new module will support the market with compliance, stakeholder engagement, green financing and efficiency by measuring carbon emissions across all commercial aircraft. Request more information here We hope you find this podcast insightful and relevant to your business. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Tim Boon
IBAの最高収益責任者であるStuart Hatcher博士は、2021年の見通しにおいて、2021年の路線、取引、資産価値、航空会社の倒産に関するIBAの意見を共有しています。 「2020年が終わった今、私たちは2021年以降にポジティブになれる兆候があるのかどうかに目を向けることができます。 長く時間のかかる予防接種プロセスが進行中で、これは前向きな進展ですが、現実的にいつになったら現在の市場における深刻な状況が緩和され始めると予測できるでしょうか？」
購買後市場と部品
An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.
This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values. ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV). For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.
価値
Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report
Significant uncertainty will remain in 2021, but the global aviation industry remains agile and resilient to weather future challenges in 2021 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss, and predict trends across aviation finance for the year ahead. This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date market insight. Topics covered include: IBA’s aircraft values The changing face of airline fleets Possible airline failures The road to recovery OEM activity What are the changing trends in retirements? Transactional activity Trading sales and capital activity The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions or comments, please contact Mike Yeomans.
Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.
Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.
Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.
- Airlines remain loss-making, but some quarter on quarter improvements - - Fleet exits continuing, but younger aircraft value drops limited - - Modest recovery in some domestic markets, but load factors low - - OEM production rates constrained, with MAX return set to shift market dynamics -
2nd November, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, today announces the launch of its new one-stop aviation intelligence platform, InsightIQ. The platform combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated aviation data.
The global aviation marketplace will continue to encounter stress and multiple challenges in 2020 and beyond. Join IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the Year, for a Market Update as we uncover, discuss and predict market trends across the industry and aviation finance. This webinar is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered include:• The changing face of Airline fleets• Possible Airline Failures• How are fleets being deployed• Will the MAX make a strong recovery?• OEM update• What are the changing trends in retirements• Transitional activity - trading sales and capital activity• What to expect in IBA's next major value update The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour
16th October, 2020: The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has appointed IBA as the appraisal firm for its ARJ21 programme.
IBA's Engine Market Update is designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to understand the performance of the Engine market and the flight path to recovery. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community identify market opportunities, structure deals and mitigate risk in the wake of COVID-19. IBA's Phil Seymour, President and Head of Advisory, David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst and Jamie Davey, Engine Analyst, share their insight on: Engine value resilience and the flight path to recovery Shop Visit Forecast modelling and the impact on the aftermarket, values and lease rates How have OEMs been supporting the industry Fleet trends of the most popular engine types during COVID-19 Engine performance - Value and Lease Rate update The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: David Archer
Aviation Asset Valuation is often a thoroughly debated and complicated subject - no matter where the industry is in the aviation cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented downturn in air traffic. As such, it is even more important to consider valuation definitions and the correct and valid use of them for pending transaction and for year-end audit purposes. Designed for airlines, lessors, financiers alike, strengthen and build understanding of valuation methodology by joining IBA, the 2020 Appraiser of the year. Combining our specialist valuation skills, with commercial and industry expertise, our Masterclass covers: All you need to know about Base Value and Market Value and how they should be used - IFRS/IAS 36 Impairment of Assets Should impairment of the airline book value be considered and how market or base value should be applied International Standard on Auditing ISA 620 Voted Appraiser of the Year in 2012, 2018, 2020 and with over 30+ years of knowledgeable market experience, we have a deep understanding of the market. This session is a must for those looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans
This session is a must for aviation investors and banks looking to further understand the potential impact on current and future investments, MRO operators, and for those requiring further guidance on how to minimise and manage the impact from Covid-19. This comprehensive webinar provides independent insight and analysis on the Aftermarket industry. In this session, our panel of experts discuss and address the pandemic impact and review future trends and innovation in the Aftermarket industry. Our senior analysts offer opinion on current and future market trends across the following areas: How will current and forecasted levels of utilisation impact the MRO demand What is the influence of lease end forecasts, trends and retirements for the market Will forecasted engine shop visits be dramatically different How will supply chain models need to adapt to the new norm Will there be a step change in demand for PMA parts Can the market expect MRO restructuring and consolidation Why the Aftermarket has to change The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Adil Slimani
IBA's Mid-Year Market Update Webinar offered independent analysis and insight on current and future trends, developments and key market indicators in the wake of Covid-19. This webinar session is a must for the aviation community looking for comprehensive, accurate and up to date market insight. Topics covered included: Macroeconomic factors, Covid-19 and market effects Asset performance in 2020 Retirement Trends Which airlines and/or regions should lessors and investors be concerned with in 2020 Review of OEM performance Trading volumes Lease end & fleet estimates Capital Markets The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans
8th July, 2020: IBA, the leading aviation data and advisory company, has adjusted its market values for all commercial passenger aircraft types across the widebody, narrowbody, regional jet and turboprop categories to reflect the impact of Covid-19.
Navigating Covid-19: In this short and punchy 60 minute session, Phil Seymour was joined by Stuart Hatcher, COO MD Aviation and Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, to discuss key market indicators. Using Fleet and Values data from IBA's leading data intelligence platform IBA.iQ, the panel review OEM activity, Green shoots in the market and Leasing activity. To benefit and support our clients and to help enable them to further understand how aviation stakeholders are responding, managing and succeeding in these unprecedented times, IBA are running a new series of fortnightly webinars focused on the aviation market. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour or Mike Yeomans
The panel shared their opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, identified which asset types are more vulnerable and flagged those that are more resilient to current conditions. Our senior ISTAT appraiser team reviewed the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Regional and Turboprop aircraft.Session highlights included reviewing market supply and demand, fleet plans, scope clauses plus values and lease rate guidance for aircraft and engines. The session also allowed for 20 minutes of Q&A, enabling our audience to put their burning questions to the panel. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans or David Archer
Following on from last week's session where IBA presented their approach to valuations and lease rates, our panel take a deeper dive looking specifically at commonly traded aircraft types. Topics covered included; IBA's opinion on likely market performance in the near and long term, which assets types are more vulnerable and a 30 minute Q&A session with our panel. The webinar was chaired by Phil Seymour, an ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow and former ISTAT International Appraisers' Program Chairman. Phil was joined by Stuart Hatcher and Mike Yeomans - two of IBA's Senior ISTAT Appraisers, and David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine Analyst. Our senior ISTAT appraiser team also review the impact from Covid-19 on future asset performance for specific Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Mike Yeomans
ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation? Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average. As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs. This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.
The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.
Buying aircraft, whether private or commercial, can be a complicated, time-consuming process with potential for plenty of twists, turns, pitfalls and surprises along the way. Thorough due diligence is crucial before purchasing decisions are made; the values involved mean errors can cost millions of dollars.
IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations, having completed a variety of assignments at airports including LHR and LGW. These valuations have been for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots.
How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots. David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast. If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer
IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.
With the recent 50th anniversary of the Concorde's maiden flight, IBA's Phil Seymour, CEO, discusses how aircraft appraisers would value Concorde today.
After a long period of stability and growth in the aviation industry the prospect of asset impairment is starting to rear its head, according to Phil Seymour, the CEO of IBA.
As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.
With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.
There was a great deal of activity concerning aircraft lease portfolios during the first few months of 2018. IBA has been advising various investors, with a broad range of investment objectives, with surprising results. Whereas typically investors are seeking at least a 7% return, in some deals the returns were much leaner than anticipated, in others break-even was the optimistic outcome. Both market share and an eagerness to develop a relationship with a particular operator were highlighted as objectives in these cases. With such lean returns, one theme is common to all; robust due diligence (DD) ahead of purchase and a focus on expert ongoing servicing is essential to maximise the opportunity to realise target returns.
Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.
Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.
In this session IBA partners with KPMG to present an accounting and commercial update, discussing depreciation, residual values and useful economic lives.
Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy for Avolon, published a challenging thought paper last year assessing aircraft appraisers. I want to respond to Dick's thoughts wearing two hats - as the CEO of IBA, a leading aviation consultancy with some 30 years' appraisal experience and data, and as the former chairman of the ISTAT International Appraisers' Program. The timing is right for three reasons - Dick makes many excellent points that need to be kept front of mind as our industry develops; 2017 will likely be the most volatile market for years making appraisal opinion even more important; and Dick and I will debate our respective positions at the AFJ conference in Dublin and this serves as a prelude.
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IBA’s Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA’s submission to the report ‘Aircraft Repossession Planning – Practical Considerations’ produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.
In this hour long session, the panel offered guidance and advice to help financiers prepare for unscheduled returns and defaults, outlined how to secure aircraft and engines whilst maintaining asset value and how to navigate both the legal requirements and the practical/pragmatic considerations. Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President and ISTAT Senior Appraiser Fellow, and Oliver Hipperson, Partner at Clifford Chance, were joined by a panel of experts to share and provide insight, best practise and guidance to the finance community on managing unscheduled early redeliveries. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Peter Walter
A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.
As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.
IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In the current climate this session is a must for financiers and leasing companies looking to further mitigate investment risk and preserve asset values. Following further restrictions on travel, airlines across the globe are cutting capacity, reducing utilisation and parking aircraft, as well as laying off staff in a bid to reduce costs and weather the repercussions of Covid-19. IBA's Asset Management and Technical team share some best practice, and provide guidance that can help to protect aircraft and engine values and ensure that early or unscheduled redeliveries are carefully managed. In this short and punchy ‘how to' session, Phil Seymour, IBA's President, and Ross Armour, IBA's Technical Manager, share best practice, flag watch outs and share war stories. The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: Phil Seymour
In response to the unprecedented number of airline bankruptcies and defaults over the first half of 2019, IBA hosted a Risk and Repossession Webinar. Designed around the needs of Lessors, Financiers and Investors, our team of experts looked at credit risk, current levels of stress in the market, offered guidance on approaching defaults and shared our first hand experiences in this area. Topics included: Risk & repossessions - what are we seeing in the market place? Keeping up to date with credit risk Repossession best practise In this session Peter Walter, IBA's Director - Asset Management and Guljar Lehri, Head of Aircraft Transactions and Technical Marketing share their valuable sector expertise. A copy of our Repossession and Risk slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions, please contact: Peter Walter
IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.
エンジン
Rolls-Royce are to test all its civil aircraft engines currently in production to ensure their compatibility with 100%-sustainable aviation fuel by 2023.
17th December, 2020 – The long term value of commercial aircraft engines is set to withstand the worst effects of Covid-19, according to new data from IBA. In a recent webinar entitled How To Build Resilient Engine Management Programmes For The Road To Recovery, the leading aviation data and advisory company outlined how engines are set to show long term value retention.
The positive news of several Covid-19 vaccines and various testing regimes have spread optimism that travel restrictions will soon ease, passenger confidence will return and the economic impact dissipates quickly in 2021. Whilst we hope for all of these things, it’s likely there will be further challenges ahead and there will certainly be a variety of recovery patterns across the globe. Join speakers from IBA for a review of how to effectively manage engine assets to build a resilient and cash preserving strategy that supports the road to recovery. Topic discussed include: Shop visit forecasts Differing scenarios How resilient is the engine market? The importance of spare engine ratios Do maintenance reserves need to be reviewed? Engine SV options Material use and build standards? What is the trade-off between cash preservation v time on wing Impairments – IFRS16 and 36 issues What will fuel aviation’s green future? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Mal Cowley or David Archer
Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.
When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.
- Widebody engine values drop by up to 50% - 12th October 2020: The collapse in demand for air travel caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a significant decline in engine values, with a knock on effect on engine MRO, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.
IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar has been designed specifically around the business needs of investors, lessors, operators and financiers looking to explore the engine market and understand the impact from Covid-19. This session provides valuable insight to help the aviation community to navigate current challenges, identify future opportunities and mitigate risk. IBA's Phil Seymour, President and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, share their insight on the impact of Covid-19 on the engine market. Topics covered include; value performance in a crisis for narrowbody and widebody engines, the impact in the short, medium and long term and a review of the A330 engine market and the GE90 market. The slide deck is also available to download. If you have further questions, please contact: David Archer
For CFMI, it would appear that the impact of the 737 MAX grounding has not been detrimental to the LEAP-1B. There remains a strong market outlook for this engine and looking at the Base Value, Half Life, it is performing well and is on par with competing engines in the market. As illustrated in the chart below, there has been no impact on values.
Using the valuation tool InsightIQ, it considers the lease rate comparison of several A320 vintages and their respective engines. London/Dublin/Tokyo - October 3rd 2019: IBA, the independent aviation advisory, valuation and consulting firm has identified a growing trend in mature aircraft management where the leasing of core engine assets is managed separately to the aircraft as a whole. This is becoming increasingly evident based upon the strengths of the CFM-56-5/7B and V2500-A5 engines within the A320 and 737NG fleets.
IBA Report by David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst: issued September 2019 The grounding of the 737 MAX fleet has been one of the most widely discussed aviation events of recent history. Following two tragic accidents, the 737 MAX fleet remains grounded until the world's aviation authorities deem it fit for service. Speculation has inevitably turned to the impact on the market and the longer term ramifications for both the aircraft and the engines.
Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.
Our engine analysts have been investigating recent concerns of spare engine and parts shortages for three commonly traded engines, the V2500-A5, CFM56-7B and -5B. Our findings suggest that the engine lease market will not be able to support the 25-35% increase in shop visit rates forecast for CFM56-7B and -5B engines and continuing strong demand for V2500's in the period 2019-2024. There is currently very limited availability of spares and unless more spare engines are generated by retirements and aircraft teardowns, or airline held spare stock absorbs some of the demand, IBA expect engine inductions and longer TATs will create a log jam further intensified by the impact of compound shop visits i.e. first run, second run and third run overlapping.
Rather than invest large sums of money into the development of clean-sheet airframe designs, in recent years OEMs have elected to redesign, improve and re-engine already successful airframes for the next generation of aircraft. In many of these cases, the engine accounts for a significant proportion of the efficiency savings.
Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.
The 777 has long been established in its market of medium- and long-haul routes, as the world's largest twin engine commercial aircraft. The 777 entered service in 1995 via the 777-200, and now comprises five passenger series: the 777-200, -200ER, -200LR, -300, and -300ER. There is also a freighter version, the 777-200F. The 777 seats 310-390 passengers, depending on the series, and class configuration and layout of passenger accommodations (LOPA).
The fleet of in-service, passenger configured regional and narrowbody aircraft has increased by one-third over the past 10 years. This growing fleet will require used spare engines for various purposes, including the provision of cover for maintenance shop visits. Aircraft Commerce has analysed the regional and narrowbody used engine market to provide a summary of demand, value and lease rate trends.
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Unlike the fixed wing market, helicopter utilisation appears to have stabilised and returned to near normal levels in some sectors. As the pandemic took hold earlier this year, we saw demand for helicopters impacted by travel restrictions preventing workers reaching offshore and wind facilities, and also by extremely low oil pricing. With restrictions easing mid-year, we have subsequently seen utilisation rates strengthening as delayed maintenance of wind turbines resumed and workers returning to offshore sites. With demand for medical air transportation also rising, we are seeing strong utilisations of helicopters across HEMS as a result. In summary, utilisation has stabilised, orders and transactions have reduced but as fewer units have come on the market, the value of limited stock has held better than expected. To review values of key commercial helicopters, download a copy of IBA’s Helicopter Values Guide 2020 using the link below. Helicopter Values Guide 2020
Our helicopter team are regularly being asked challenging questions about the helicopter market and the impact of Covid-19. In this short market review, Alastair Fallon (IBA's Helicopter Aviation Analyst) shares our latest insight on: • The composition of the global commercial helicopter fleet - leased Vs owned • Helicopter deliveries - actual and forecast • Helicopter deployment • Current Market Values for a selection of key helicopter types • Future developments The slide deck is available to download here. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact: Alastair Fallon
IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.
The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.
It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.
The recent announcement of Bristow filing for CH11 once again illustrates the challenges faced by those investing and operating in the Helicopter Market. Despite the challenges, there are some positive signs in the market and low levels of growth are forecast for the coming years - up to 4%, with Asia providing some new opportunities.
With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.
It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years. Our Helicopter team are regularly asked challenging questions about the future of the market. In this short market review, IBA's Owen Geach shares our latest insight on:# Turbine fleet - lease/owned dynamics Helicopter trends OEM market share Deliveries - actual/forecast Financing helicopters The slide deck is also available to download. If you have any further questions please contact: Owen Geach
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To help reduce the impact from limited resources, technical representation and access difficulties, IBA provide an unmissable webinar session that will offer our best practice advice on how to approach transitions in the current market conditions. 2020 has been an unprecedented year for the aviation industry. For the first time in history aircraft lease ends will exceed lease starts. High levels of lease ends, fleet exits, and the challenges of the global pandemic requires more planning and earlier engagement around transitions. Our senior Asset Management team share their unrivalled expertise on the following areas: Current market trends in fleet divestiture, aircraft supply and lease ends How to approach lease re-negotiations and current market rates Managing the 737 MAX return to service Working through redeliveries in ‘the new norm' and reviewing best practice The impact on shop visit forecasts and MRO demand This session is a must for Financiers, Lessors and Airlines. The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please get in touch via our contact form.
In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.
Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.
Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.
IBA's recent Market Update analysis covered a range of market dynamics including our thoughts on the Farnborough Airshow orders, the New Mid-Sized Aircraft and operator profitability. If you missed it, the materials can be accessed here.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says that about 40% of the global commercial aircraft fleet is under operating lease, and that trends indicate this percentage will increase. It emphasises the challenges that can arise when the lessee and lessor look at a lease from different perspectives.
航空機マネージメント
The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.
In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.
What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.
The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.
The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.
- Spend set to be less than half of US $90bn forecast -- Engine shop visits and spend taking the biggest hit -- Need for innovation and flexible maintenance programs has never been greater -- Lower cost options such as PMA expected to be in demand - 4th August, 2020: With MRO industry revenues directly related to aircraft utilisation, 2020's total MRO spend will be less than half of the approximately $90bn forecasted, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Changing Landscape of the Aftermarket Industry Webinar.
- Aircraft deliveries less than 50% of 2019 levels -- Almost 500 narrowbody cancellations - 90% for Boeing 737 MAX - 23 July, 2020: Over 800 aircraft have been identified as subject to exit from their current airline fleets, according to the leading aviation data and advisory company IBA in its Mid-Year Market Update.
Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.
The maintenance reserves industry is estimated to be worth $24bn per annum. Optimising your position to reduce financial exposure is a must for airlines and their stakeholders when selecting aircraft types, agreeing maintenance reserves, forecasting and modelling maintenance events and cash flow. Download IBA's quick guide for steps to consider before, during and at the end of a lease that will improve your cash flow and reduce exposure.
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- Incident-free return to service crucial for 750+ MAXs currently on ground - 18th September, 2020: The commercial aircraft leasing market is set for considerable turmoil in 2021 with over 1,000 aircraft set to be returned to lessors without clear options for onward placement.
Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates. As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.
29th May, 2020: IBA, the leading independent aviation consultancy, is optimistic about the resilience of regional jet and turboprop aircraft values, but expects value and lease performance to vary based on secondary market supply for specific models.
As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.
In this joint session between IBA's Peter Walter and Guljar Lehri and IATA's DeeDee Doke and Chris Markou, we look at how airlines can manage their operating leases to avoid millions of dollars of unwanted and hidden cost.
The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.
Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:
The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time. Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.
マーケット分析
Despite current aircraft utilisation falling far short of pre-pandemic levels, the industry is witnessing a modest boom in new airlines, with over 130 start-ups preparing for take-off in 2021 and 2022.
- Significant changes in OEM order and delivery shares, storage levels, market levels and lease rates - The advent and rollout of vaccines will start to drive a partial recovery in the aviation sector in 2021, but with significant variance between global regions, according to new data from IBA.
Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.
The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.
As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.
Covid-19 continues to challenge the aviation market and, in many cases, the market is adapting and changing to the current climate. When it comes to aircraft financing, levels of commercial liquidity have dropped with limited bank debt and cash, but capital markets are still providing available options for the right deals. The price and type of transactions and the motivation behind them is also changing. In this session our panel explores available sources of finance, airline restructuring, changing residual values and LTV rates, cost of deals and lease rates. Topics covered include: What are the available sources of finance and what transaction types are we seeing? Airline restructuring: assessing cash flow and unencumbered assets What is the motivation behind deals and what is the cost for airlines, lessor and banks? Residual values, what is realistic and what is a good LTV rate? Do we need a new model for valuations based on lease life and airline credit? The slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact: Phil Seymour
The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.
The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:
Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.
- Airline commercial aircraft fleet drops $60 billion in value - 7th October, 2020: There is a growing divergence between aircraft base and market values as the global effects of the Covid-19 pandemic drive down demand, according to data from leading independent aviation consultancy, IBA.
旅客機から輸送機へ交換
A new batch of P2F converted freighters is currently entering the market but what makes an aircraft appropriate for conversion? Here, IBA considers the factors influencing suitability and anticipates the market’s likely direction.
For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.
As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family.
20th May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.
Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.
IBA's Passenger to Freighter Webinar was designed specifically around the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session is a must for those considering converting fleet or looking at end of life options. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft and Phil Seymour, CEO, added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions vs parting out plus the need for scrutiny as the market for Cargo begins to change. A copy of our Passenger to Freighter slide deck is available to download here. If you have further questions please contact us.
IBA Report: issued March 2019 Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.
Freighter Conversions - capitalising on the resurgence in demand Freight volumes are continuing to trend on an upward trajectory and at a solid rate when compared to historical data. It should be noted however, that due to the inventory restocking cycle having concluded and manufacturing export orders remaining low, demand factors are lacking when compared to 2017. This paper looks at the current and future freighter market, production, routes into the market and takes a close look at a B737 conversion.
According to IATA's March 2018 Freight Analysis report, global freight volumes slowed to a 22-month low, 1.7% year-on-year in March. This outcome represents the slowest pace of annual growth since the early part of 2016. The decline in growth can predominantly be attributed to the end of the restocking cycle which was one of the drivers behind the high growth figures. IATA have cautioned against reading too much into the most recent figures and expects growth of 4-5% overall for 2018.
Passenger to freighter conversions will form a sizeable tranche of the ‘new' main deck metal entering the market over the next 20 years, according to airframers Boeing and Airbus.
環境
In response to widespread demand, IBA’s Tim Boon delivers an update on sustainable aviation finance and green initiatives for 2021. This popular report provides the latest on ESG regulation and compliance, green financing initiative and new developments in SAF and OEM advances.
Following on from our Engine Market Update webinar in September, IBA’s Phil Seymour, President & Head of Advisory, and David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst, bring you an insightful and thought-provoking podcast that reviews the current status of the aero engine market. It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the engine sector. However, positive news about the vaccines, stored aircraft returning to service and utilisation increasing are all indicators that the outlook for the engine market is looking much less bleak than it was a few months ago. Listen to Phil and David as they come together to provide a top-level overview on key topics such as engine shop visit capacity vs demand, difficulties faced by the engine OEMs and the performance of engine values. If you have any further questions, or comments please contact David Archer Looking for more information? Our next engine webinar is scheduled for December 10th, where our award-winning team will take a deeper dive into the technical aspects of engine shop visits and cost management using data from our intelligence platform InsightIQ. Register for free here.
ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.
The environment is a core issue for the aviation industry to manage and to ensure investors remain attracted to our industry to deliver sustainable growth. This roundtable session drew on the experience of key industry stakeholders to share current and future plans to address this challenge.
Aviation generates 2-3% of global CO₂ emissions and, if business continues as usual, is on course to produce double these emissions by 2037 when IATA predicts 8.2 billion annual air travellers. As a result, the industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its contribution to global warming and decarbonise operations in a bid to offset passenger growth. Sustainability and aviation's impact on the environment are significant issues facing the industry over the coming years, subjects which will be at the forefront of investment and business opportunities. This report explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry.
This podcast explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry. If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please contact Tim Boon.
Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.
コロナウイルス
Using fleet data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, it’s possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.
Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.
Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, and Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman of LCI, come together to discuss the helicopter market and the impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic. With a combined experience of nearly 100 years in aviation, the pair discuss how Covid-19 has impacted the helicopter sector, drawing comparison to the fixed wing market. If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback on the topics discussed please contact Phil Seymour.
Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.
Phil Seymour, IBA's Company President, had the pleasure of joining Matthew Driskill from Asian Aviation for a discussion on the industry and a deep dive into the impact of the unprecedented global Covid-19 pandemic. If you have any further questions or comments on the topics mentioned please contact Phil Seymour.
Phil Seymour, IBA's President and Head of Advisory, and Killian Croke, Partner at KPMG Ireland, come together to discuss how the Covid-19 global pandemic will impact aviation asset impairments in the future. This short podcast is a precursor to the IBA Asset Values Masterclass webinar we are running tomorrow (Thursday 24th September). Designed for airlines, lessors, and financiers, this complementary webinar is a must attend for anybody looking to refresh, build or renew their understanding of Valuations. If you would like to attend, secure your place here. If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback on the topics discussed please contact Phil Seymour.
It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.
航空会社の信頼
Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates. For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.
Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.
Uncategorised
Airline Economics New York takes place this year at the Metropolitan Club, IBA's experts will be on hand, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ. IBA's Phil Seymour, Company President, will be speaking on the ABS & EETC aircraft valuations panel on Wednesday 20th October and moderating the Financing & Investing in aircraft & engines in a cyclical industry panel on Thursday 21st October. Stuart Hatcher, IBA's Chief Revnue Officer, is pleased to be speaking on the Airline Ratings panel on Wednesday 20th October. More information will be available nearer the event. If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero
IBA will be sponsoring ISTAT EMEA and our team of expert analysts will be on hand, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ. More information will be available nearer the event. If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero
Airline Economics Dubai returns this year at the Ritz Carlton Dubai Beach, IBA's experts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ. More information will be available nearer the event. If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero
IBA's team of expert analysts will be attending this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ. More information will be available nearer the event. If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero
IBA's Phil Seymour, Company President, will be giving an overview on lessors and the environment at 9:15 on Tuesday 14th September. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer, is pleased to be moderating the Helicopter panel at 15:35 on Thursday 16th September. A team of IBA's expert analysts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ. More information will be available nearer the event. If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero
Airfinance Journal Americas in Miami will hold both the North America (3-4th) and Latin America (4-5th) events this year, giving a great opportunity to network in-person. IBA's team of expert analysts will be in attendance at this event, offering meetings and demonstrations of our leading data intelligence platform InsightIQ. For more details on the event, please click here. If you would like to arrange a meeting with us at the event, please contact Marketing@iba.aero
IBA forecasts that deliveries of new aircraft won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025. Just 747 aircraft were delivered in 2020, and IBA forecasts deliveries will rise modestly to around 1,100 in 2021.
London / Dublin / Tokyo, March 11th 2020: IBA Group is pleased to announce the appointment of Ian Beaumont to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of IBA Group effective from 11th March 2020. Phil Seymour, IBA's former CEO will continue to serve as Company President.
London / Dublin / Tokyo / Los Angeles - January 21st 2020: IBA Group, the awardwinning specialist aviation consultancy, has won the coveted Appraiser of the Year 2020at the Airline Economics Aviation 100 awards held last night. This is the second time inthree years that IBA has won this prestigious award, having previously won in 2018, andis testament to its best practice and strategic focus. The firm was voted for by industrypeers in the aviation banking, leasing and brokerage sectors in recognition of itsindependent valuation expertise and significant depth of experience.
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