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07/11/2022

Ask the Appraiser - valuing the COMAC ARJ21

Our experts shine a light on the value and lease rate outlook for the ARJ21 and look at the wider market outlook for the Chinese regional jet.

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Image: Peng Chen

 

Marking its first delivery to Chengdu Airlines, the launch customer in 2015, the COMAC ARJ21 is the Chinese manufacturer’s debut into indigenous regional jet production.  Whilst still in the early stages of the product cycle, IBA Insight Fleets reveals the ARJ21-700 has an in-service fleet of 83 aircraft, with around 500 remaining on order.

 

 

Combining the latest aircraft values data from IBA Insight’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports with the opinions of our experts, we predict that the aircraft’s market value and forecasted base value curves are likely to remain stable in the long term. In IBA’s opinion, the market value of a 6-year-old ARJ21-700 aircraft is USD$12,020,000 in the second half of 2022, around 9% below base value.

 

“The COMAC ARJ21-700 has a limited, but relatively well-protected market, with the in-service fleet and order book heavily concentrated within domestic China. The ARJ is not yet certified outside of China, which limits its addressable market. However, the aircraft is an important precursor to the COMAC C919 narrowbody, which has recently been certified for operation in China. IBA expects the C919 to offer greater competition to established Airbus and Boeing products within the Chinese aviation market.”

 

Mike Yeomans – Director - Valuations

 

IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.

 

Find out more about IBA Valuations

 

Deliveries, Covid, and the secondary market outlook for the ARJ21

According to aircraft order data from IBA Insight, 12 ARJ21-700 aircraft have been delivered to four operators, all of which are based in China. These are China Southern (4 aircraft), Air China (4 aircraft), Chengdu Airlines (3 aircraft) and OTT Airlines (2 aircraft). IBA Insight flights further reveals that Nanchang, Shantou, Yueyang, and Chengdu are the destinations most frequently served by the aircraft.

 

“The bulk of the Covid-19 pandemic appears to have had minimal effect on the ARJ21 program, with deliveries in 2020 being almost twice at 2019 levels. That said, the continued lockdowns and ‘Zero Covid’ policy do now appear to be having an impact, most with deliveries notably slowing following a rise in cases after March 2022.”

 

Jie Zhou – Manager, Market Analysis

 

The number of secondary market transactions for the ARJ21 has also shown steady growth since 2017. Initially featuring sale and leaseback events, transactions in recent years have diversified to include sale and finance lease transactions.

 

 

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IBAは昨年に続き2年連続、累計4回目の 「Appraisal of the Year(鑑定士オブザイヤー)」に選ばれました

独立系航空分析およびアドバイザリーの大手企業であるIBAは、権威あるAirline Economics Aviation 100 Awardsで、2022年の「Appraisal of the Year(鑑定士オブザイヤー)」に選ばれました。今回の受賞は、昨年に続き2年連続、累計4回目となります。 これまで、2012年、2018年、2020年、そして今回の2021年に選ばれております。また、今後ますます多くの皆様から愛されるよう願いを込めて、2022年4月よりコーポレートロゴを刷新いたしました。   航空金融セクターにおいて、その年に最も優れたパフォーマンスを実施した企業を称えるために設立されたこの賞を通じて、IBAの航空産業に関する独立した専門的なビジネス分析とインテリジェンスを提供してきた30年以上の経験が、業界の信頼ある専門家審査員団によって高く評価されました。   特に2020年、2021年はCOVID-19のパンデミックの影響により、航空業界にとって史上最大の危機ともいえる状況に直面いたしました。このような難局を乗り越え、with コロナの環境にいかに早く適応できるかといった難しい局面は今後もまだしばらく続いていくものと予測されます。   IBAは、1988年に設立され、速度、精度、視覚分析、直感的なナビゲーションを組み合わせたワンストップインテリジェンスプラットフォームであるIBA Insightなどの幅広いサービスを提供してきました。これまで培ってきた多くの経験をふまえ、未曾有の危機を航空業界一丸となって乗り越え、今後ますますの業界全体の発展に貢献していきたいと考えております。   【会社概要】   IBA Group 所在地:IBA House, 7 The Crescent,Leatherhead KT22 8DY, UKTEL:03- 4530-9687 MAIL:[email protected] Webサイト:www.iba.aeroTwitter: https://twitter.com/IBAaviation LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/iba-aviation-consultancy/mycompany/ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSkPhTf-05htY99V79fklMAb     以下は、マスコミ関係者向けの情報ですので、広く開示はされません。   ◼報道関係者問い合わせ先 IBA Group 所在地:IBA House, 7 The Crescent,Leatherhead KT22 8DY, UK TEL:03- 4530-9687MAIL:[email protected] 担当者:メイピンHP: 080-3486-2622

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