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IBA には、業界で最大級の認定上級鑑定士チームがあり、世界中の航空および金融セクターのクライアントと提携して、広範かつ複雑な資産評価要件について独立したアドバイスを提供しています。 戦略的なフリートの選択、取引のデューデリジェンス、資産担保証券 (ABS) ポートフォリオの評価、運用上の意思決定から、年次ポートフォリオおよび財務コンプライアンスの監視まで、お客様をサポートします。

 

IBA は、2012 年、2018 年、2020 年、2021 年、2022 年にAppraiser of the Yearに選出されました。クライアントの評価ニーズは複雑であり、多くの場合、迅速な対応が必要であり、進展する状況によって突然変化する可能性があることを理解しているので、安心してお任せください。

2022

2022年「年間最優秀鑑定士」にIBAが選ばれる

90%

ABS構造の90%に関与

4,500+

2019年の取引とポートフォリオの評価件数

35+

価値と整備データの年数

多様な航空資産に対する正確で偏りのない評価を得られます。

専門的な評価スキルと商業・業界知識の強力な組み合わせが、私たちの人材の特徴です。IBA Insightのユニークな歴史的・現代的航空情報へのアクセスにより、資産の本質的な価値を透明化します。公平で柔軟な評価により、ボタン一つで個々の資産や集合的な資産の評価を行うことができます。航空資産の評価は、世界市場を深く理解する必要がある専門的な業務です。国内外における政治、経済、健康、環境上の問題があっても、当社が判断を誤ることはありません。私たちの評価は、独立したデータと豊富で包括的な経験に基づいて行われますので、ご安心ください。

 

評価基準は、外部環境に応じて変化します。好況で安定した市場と、不況時やファイアセール時の資産価値とは異なります。私たちの専門家は、どのような状況下でも、どのような評価基準を適用すべきか、お客様に確かで公正なアドバイスを提供します。

 

IBAのインテリジェンス・プラットフォームであるIBA Insightは、最新かつ過去の豊富な数値データを提供します。グローバルな市場機会、クラス、モデル、地域ごとの航空機の流動性、飛行と利用状況、リスクプロファイルをリアルタイムで把握することができます。

Aircraft Values & Lease Rates: February 2024
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Aircraft Values & Lease Rates: February 2024

Where are aircraft values and lease rates going in 2024? The general sentiment for 2024 is that values and leases will continue to soar throughout 2024 with this movement attributed to several industry factors. This includes the current tight supply, driven by lease extensions, current engine reliability issues and a lack of new aircraft deliveries.   In IBA's latest market update webinar for Q1 2024, IBA's specialist aircraft valuations and appraisal team shared the latest updates for commercial narrowbody and widebody aircraft values. Here’s how the individual aviation asset classes have performed over the last year and the forward outlook for this year. Narrowbody Aircraft Market values     Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months)   There has been a growth in new generation narrowbody aircraft values, particularly for the 737 MAX 8 and the A320neo models, which are closely matched in terms of Market Value.  Specific aircraft valuations are influenced by aircraft specifications such as Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW) and engine thrust, along with the nature of the transaction and the motivations of the participants, leading to potential variations. After robust gains in 2023, there is an optimistic outlook for continued growth in 2024, extending to both the A320ceo and the 737NG.   In the mid-life narrowbody aircraft segment, there has been a significant increase in aircraft values throughout 2023, with further gains projected for 2024. This suggests a sustained progression. Operators are demonstrating interest in older aircraft, even those in less-than-ideal conditions, as they strategically acquire assets from the secondary market with plans for subsequent investments in their serviceability. This trend reflects a proactive approach from airline operators, as they anticipate future returns on their investments. Lease rates   Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months)   Narrowbody aircraft lease rates have been characterised by a significant upward trend in 2024, particularly for the 737 MAX 8 and A320neos. IBA forecasts an increase to $410,000 per month by July 2024, signalling substantial growth.  The A321neo specifically is experiencing a surge, with lease rates already in the mid-$400,000s range expected to increase as the year progresses. This is partly driven by tight supply, due to ongoing production rate recovery, and the elevated interest rate environment.   In the mid-life segment, lease rates have also seen a robust increase, especially for the A320 family (A320 and A321), with mid-life examples registering over 20% annual growth in some cases. The grounding of GTF-powered aircraft and operators extending leases to cope with supply constraints in the secondary market has fuelled this growth in lease rates. While this has caused lease rates for the A320ceo to approach parity with the 737-800, the rate of growth is anticipated to cool off, as the year progresses, reaching a plateau in the middle of the year. Lease rates for mid-life aircraft are climbing, from above $200,000 to the mid-$200,000s range.   Widebody Aircraft Market values Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months)   In the widebody segment, we have identified a recovery in the market values of current-generation aircraft, that is expected to continue into the middle of the year. Notably, A350-900 values are closing in on those of the Boeing 787-10, erasing the latter’s premium. The continuing recovery in widebody aircraft values also mirrors the trends seen for narrowbody aircraft last year. The flurry of orders, especially for the A350 and Boeing 787, echoes the strong demand witnessed in the narrowbody segment, and while the values have not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels, there is room for further growth into the middle of the year.   IBA has seen a robust recovery in the mature widebody segment, particularly for mid-life examples. Market values for these assets are expected to have more than doubled in 12 months by mid-year, representing one of the most substantial percentage changes in the market. Acquisitions made during the pandemic at lower prices have proven to be astute investments, given the current market dynamics. Notably, the A330 and the Boeing 777-300ER are experiencing a strong uptick in values, driven in part by the solid performance of the value of their engines, which have rebounded significantly. Lease rates   Source: IBA Insight & IBA Research (Percentages represent change in value over previous 12 months)   Widebody aircraft lease rates demonstrate a positive outlook in 2024. There has been a notable shift for A330s in 2021 and 2022 to rates now approaching pre-2019 and which are expected to surpass by July 2024. On the Boeing side, the 777-300ER is experiencing a similar upward trend, with rates moving closer to those for a typical 12-year-old aircraft in 2019 and anticipated to surpass 2019 levels by mid-year.   A significant driver of the lease rates is the scarcity of available aircraft, characterised by a market dominated by lease extensions rather than new placements. Some extensions surpass $500,000, with operators showing a strong motivation to retain their aircraft, given the limited supply of new aircraft entering the market. Transaction volumes are on the rise, particularly on the lessor trading side, indicating increased activity in the market. While lease placements may be lower as operators opt to extend and retain their current fleet, the overall trend suggests a strengthening market with an uptick in values. This positive trajectory extends to both narrowbody and widebody aircraft, highlighting a robust and evolving landscape in the widebody aircraft lease rate market for the year ahead. Summary The narrowbody and widebody aircraft market in 2024, both exhibits growth and evolving dynamics. Narrowbody aircraft, such as the 737 MAX 8 and the A320neo, are focal points for this growth, with market values influenced by various factors, including inflationary pressures and market demand. Narrowbody aircraft lease rates, driven by factors like production rate recovery, supply constraints, and operator lease extension strategies, contribute to a dynamic and evolving landscape throughout 2024. On the widebody side, the market showcases recovery, convergence in values between key models, and substantial growth in mature widebody aircraft values, emphasising the resilience and evolution of the overall market landscape.   To learn more about our latest aircraft values, including turboprop and regional aircraft values, click here to watch the full webinar.   If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback, please get in touch with Mike Yeomans.

Changing Tides: Business Jets Experience a Dip in Demand
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Changing Tides: Business Jets Experience a Dip in Demand

With 2023 now concluded, a retrospective analysis of the trends and developments within the business jet sphere is in order. By all accounts it has certainly been an interesting year in this market, with IBA observing a downshift in values, a stark contrast to the inflated prices witnessed in 2021 and 2022. However, despite what we usually see post-downturn, the current decline in values hasn’t necessarily followed the expected bounce-back trend we’ve come to expect.     How did the GFC affect business jet values? Following the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the business jet market experienced a significant slide in its prospects. During this time, owners were looking for the exits as stock markets plummeted, personal portfolios hit, and uncertainty were at all time highs. Between 2008 and 2009, 18% of the fleet was for sale which was the highest recorded of recent times. This situation was exacerbated by lenient lending terms, which facilitated the purchase of aircraft by individuals lacking strong financial stability. Many owners found themselves unable to maintain payments or justify retaining their corporate jets.   Source: GAMA/Jetnet/IBA Sources and Analysis   The chart above shows the relationship between the number of business jet deliveries and the average percentage of in-operation jets available for sale between 2008 and 2018. A surge in deliveries can be picked out in 2008, followed by a high percentage of jets for sale, a direct correlation linked to the global financial crisis.   How did the pandemic affect values? The gradual decrease in jets available between 2012 to 2020 suggests a return to market balance despite delivery fluctuations, which would ordinally indicate increased demand and market stability.   Enter the recent global COVID-19 pandemic, which has considerably impacted by the business jet market, and added a separate layer of market factors. During this period, there was a conspicuous rise in the use of business jets for travel, diverging from the traditional reliance on commercial airline flights. However, with the pandemic coming to an end, consumers have returned to favouring commercial air travel once again.   Source: GAMA/Jetnet/IBA Sources and Analysis 2023 (F) – As GAMA have not released Q4 2024 deliveries, IBA has forecasted 2023 deliveries.    As shown in the table above, the sizable drop in business jet deliveries in 2020 meant the secondary market saw heightened activity from 2020 to 2022. This was due to many reasons, however, one being the high levels of liquidity, leading corporations and high-net-worth individuals to capitalise on new opportunities. Business jets emerged as an attractive asset class for parking cash due to their stability and potential for value retention. Moreover, the surge in the secondary market was also driven by individuals seeking liberation from the various restrictions imposed on air travel. As the airlines slashed their schedules and reduced their routes, private jet demand only strengthened. There was also an influx of younger individuals entering the market. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.   Last year saw the business jet market spike in inventory levels, surging from 3.85% in 2022 to 6.16% by the end of 2023. With values softening and buyers gaining more time to assess their options, sellers are also adjusting their asking prices in response. However, appetite is still strong, especially with the growing shifts across individual geographic regions.   Looking ahead The business jet market today is a very different one to 2008, where both values and demand rely heavily on the specific type and age of aircraft. The decline in values suggests a potential trend toward market equilibrium, indicating a more balanced market scenario. While the United States continues to dominate the space, the likes of Saudia Arabia and India are the ones to watch for 2024. The upcoming election cycle in the US will be fascinating to watch from a trading perspective, although while there is no trend to indicate that it will affect the number of transactions, the economic environment is still expected to play a huge part.     IBA predicts the main talking points for this year to be the escalation of geo-political issues currently occurring across the world, which could hinder the purchases of aircraft. Though inventory levels are likely to increase, it will most likely reach its equilibrium of around 10% (pre-covid levels). Furthermore, the default of a major fleet operator could be a major concern in the used aircraft sales market. A situation such as this was narrowly avoided last year when Delta bought ‘Wheels Up’, in a last-minute deal. Large operators would typically have significant number of aircraft, so if one was to fail, this would cause huge number of aircraft to flood the market. Therefore, this oversupply would drive down the prices, as sellers compete to offload their assets.   Overall, 2024’s appetite for business jets is still a promising indicator, but more so for newer aircraft. This is because customers are more after comfort, the latest technological advancements and potential long term value retention. With many first-time aircraft owners retaining their assets post-pandemic, we can expect values to remain relatively strong and most likely continue throughout the year.   Voted five times Appraiser of the Year, IBA’s experienced valuations team, including our Senior ISTAT Certified Appraisers, have access to real-time data for more accurate valuations. We partner with aviation and financial sector clients globally to provide independent advice on valuation requirements, ranging from strategic fleet selection, sell and buy-side transactions and operational decisions, to annual portfolio monitoring and financial compliance.   Learn more about IBA Valuations.

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