New narrowbody aircraft base values rose beyond the long-term trend into 2023, and lease rates are forecast to climb further this year, according to data revealed by Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans, and Jonathan McDonald in the first of our new series of valuations webinars.
Our experts revealed that the base value of a new Airbus A220-300 was US$38.25million (m) in 2019, and will climb to US$39.227m in 2023. The base value of a Boeing 737 MAX 8 was US$52.306m in 2019 and is expected to reach $53.125million USD in 2023. Overall, base values of new narrowbody aircraft have risen between 1.1% and 1.6% across 2022 and 2023.
Base values for previous-generation narrowbody aircraft continue to show a natural decline although IBA forecasts the prospect of some market value recovery through the first half of 2023. A 12-year-old Boeing 737-900ER base value was at US$21.462m in 2019 and is expected to fall to US$19.865m in 2023, according to data from IBA Insight. The same-age A320-200 aircraft was at US$18.713m in 2019 and is forecast to drop to US$17.626m in 2023.
Lease rates for a new Airbus A220-300 were US$266,000 per month in January 2020 and had reached US$260,500 in January 2023. They are expected to grow to US$278,000 per month by July 2023. The Boeing 737 MAX 8 was at US$305,000 per month in January 2020 and has increased to US$335,00 in January 2023.
Lease rates for previous-generation narrowbody aircraft have grown since January 2021 but are still below January 2020 levels. A 10-year-old A321-200 was at US$178,000 per month in January 2021 and is expected to reach US$216,000 per month in July 2023, still below the US$231,000 per month level in January 2020.
Examining airline capacity (ASKs), we can identify that the Americas have now exceeded 2019 levels (with North America and Latin America at 104% and 102% respectively in 2023). Overall, global capacity is at 90% of 2019 levels. Our main areas of concern for the upcoming months are elevated fuel prices, workforce shortages, inflation, and rising interest rates.
Our webinar also covered key trends across widebody and regional aircraft. To get the full range of insights, download the full presentation here.
Stay tuned for our forthcoming webinars covering new and existing asset classes. In the coming months we be taking a deep dive into value trends for Engines, EVTOLs, business jets, helicopters, and freighters. Follow us on LinkedIn for updates on our next webinar.
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IBA’s award-winning Valuations team shared their latest insights on aircraft values across all major asset types in our new webinar series. In our first edition, Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald will reveal key trends across narrowbody and widebody aircraft, regional jets and turboprops, and freighters. Watch the recording