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How far away is the tipping point for the A320ceo/neo and B737NG/MAX transition? June 2018

IBA’s recent Market Update analysis covered a range of market dynamics which included our thoughts on the Farnborough Airshow orders, the New Mid-Sized Aircraft and operator profitability.

For this week’s iQ insight, we are re-visiting our analysis on fleet development of the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737 MAX to reflect on transitions, timeframes, pressure on older aircraft and new fleet development.

Our analysis is based on the assumption that there will be a continuous production rate of 60 aircraft per month and the aircraft will retire after 25 years.

With that in mind, we expect the size of the A320neo fleet to reach 50% of the A320ceo fleet size by 2022. Growth of the neo fleet coupled with continued retirement of the ceo fleet would see the A320neo exceed the A320ceo fleet by 2026 and reach around 8,000 aircraft two years in later in 2028.

From a Boeing perspective, following the same assumptions, fleet development of the 737 MAX trends closely with the A320neo. The size of the 737 MAX fleet is expected to reach 50% of the 737NG fleet by early 2023 and exceed the size of its predecessor fleet by 2025. By 2028, the 737 MAX fleet is expected to grow to around 7,500 aircraft.

Download the insight to read it in more detail.