Newer generation narrowbody aircraft values are performing the strongest overall, with aircraft attracting good investor interest and displaying positive value trends.
The influence of the Coronavirus pandemic is gradually diminishing as market values recover relative to base, as such, we have not revised A320neo and 737 MAX 8 base values at this time. For the youngest aircraft, the A320 is showing a 1 to 1.5% improvement in values. The MAX’s increase can reach 5%. Despite this, comparable vintage A320s still enjoy a $2M premium over the MAX.
IBA is seeing a positive return to service picture, with the numbers of active A320ceo and 737 NG family aircraft improving. The 737 NG leads primarily due to the delayed delivery of the MAX. It is important to realise that despite the encouraging signs, there is still a long way to go.
Larger CEO and NEO variants (such as the A321-200 and 737-900ER) are currently well utilised. Smaller, more niche sub fleets, whose numbers are dwindling, face higher storage levels.
July’s 78% active fleet position is promising compared with last year’s 67%, but still far short of 2019’s 97%.
Newer generation aircraft are exerting pressure on the younger A320ceo and 737-800 families, causing their values to soften. Whereas mid-life and older A320s are stable within 1 or 2%, younger models can suffer up to 10%. The Boeing 737-800 faces smaller adjustments of 1% and 8% respectively.
Off lease 737-800 trades continue to display a premium of up to $3M, bolstered by a thriving passenger to freighter ‘P2F’ program, which causes strong demand. IBA expects the gap to narrow once the MAX’s global certification is completed. On lease trading shows less discrepancy.
Our outlook is positive for larger variants, considering their strong performance. The A321’s value is enjoying an improving trend, which itself has exerted a positive influence on the CEO. Though the 737-900ER is well utilised and has strong operator loyalty, concerns about Lion Air and Super Air Jet have caused some value softening.
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In anticipation of IBA’s forthcoming July Mid-Year Aircraft Values Update Webinar, we have been looking ahead at some key aviation industry trends to expect in aircraft valuations. Though many will not see base value adjustments for many aircraft asset types, we are forecasting further market value softening in 2021 for some.
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