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The aviation market in 2024 is expected to be a complex landscape. Despite forecasted improvements in economic conditions and global passenger recovery, fare compression, rising costs and OEM manufacturing issues will present challenges.Join IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 24th January to uncover the trends, risks and opportunities you need to be aware of in 2024.
It has been a year where the positive aviation news tilted the balance in the industry. Amidst the continuing recovery in post-pandemic customer demand, we have faced new challenges in consecutive interest rate rises, equipment supply constraints and aviation engine issues. As ever, the IBA team has been on hand to share our insights and expertise and support our clients worldwide. In this latest report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Dan Taylor and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values. Download the report If you have any further questions, please contact: [email protected]
Welcome to IBA’s November Sustainability Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.
IBA’s New Webinar Series Engines Explained – The Outlook for Narrowbody Engines There have been many issues and challenges impacting the aviation industry in recent months. Aircraft engines in particular have felt the impacts of manufacturing issues, shop visit escalations, ownership costs, inflationary pressures, and a higher cost of borrowing. Join IBA’s new webinar series, Engines Explained, to hear from our award-winning team as they reveal the key aero engine trends and challenges to watch for in 2024 and beyond.
In its post-summer aviation market update webinar, IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, forecast improving airline profits with a global average EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) margin of 9% in the 2025 financial year, compared to just 2% in 2022 and 7% in 2019 prior to the Covid pandemic.
Are you looking for comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date information on the aviation industry? Watch IBA’s award-winning team on Wednesday 20th September for a post-summer update on the state of the aviation market and the outlook going forwards. The Webinar Designed for all aviation industry players, our Market Update Webinar will share the latest data and identify key trends shaping the market. Click the button below to watch on demand. Watch on Demand
作为行业领先的航空市场数据和情报公司，IBA于8月1日宣布正式收购Aeromanage公司旗下的Fleetwatch应用。 Fleetwatch通过使用ADS-B数据，为航空租赁方和金融圈提供与飞机飞行事件和状态变化相关的移动设备警报提醒服务。该应用程序让关键利益相关方能够更直观地了解飞机运营情况，让资产组合管理更积极主动，及时响应各种变化，成为用户风险纾解手段中的重要一环。 伴随着IBA近期在其IBA Insight航空情报平台推出的数据和新闻警报功能，Fleetwatch的收购和整合进一步证明了IBA始终不渝地践行为客户提供增强行业洞察力的承诺，行业洞察力得到提升不仅能帮助客户管控风险，还能为其创造价值。 IBA总裁Phil Seymour表示：“我们很高兴通过收购Fleetwatch来增强我们的航空情报能力。该应用将成为我们一系列新闻和警报解决方案的重要组成部分，为租赁方、银行、投资者和保险公司等主要行业利益相关方提供一流的行业洞察力和并为他们实时更新下属机队的动态。” Fleetwatch将为IBA Insight平台的订阅用户提供一系列信息，通过每日通知，着重展示各类重要的飞机使用场景。 机队/飞机区分 用户将有条件查看其飞机与平均水平相比是否使用过度或利用率不高。用户还可以随时了解飞机的飞行长度和距离信息，并与同一运营商的同机型平均值进行比较。借助这个应用，用户有机会对随时变化的运营模式进行评估，并对诸如储备和补偿率等飞机维护影响因素是否需要调整进行研判，并帮助用户预测PBH（按小时收费）协议中的收入情况，并在出现飞机过度使用或利用不足的情况下获得相应提醒服务。 停飞 Fleetwatch让租赁方、银行和投资者等各类用户有机会觉察其飞机是否处于长时间停飞状态，帮助他们与运营商取得联系，就相关问题发出质询。 Fleetwatch将在飞机停飞超过两天时提醒用户，让飞机所有者随时跟踪租赁机队动态，及早发现问题。 禁飞目的地 租赁方、银行、投资者和保险公司可以从Fleetwatch接收警报，以提示其飞机是否进入禁飞目的地，随时监控运营商是否遵守合同条款和各类制裁限制条约。 Aeromanage的高级经理和董事Ivan Borysenko表示：“Fleetwatch提供的洞察力将显著增强IBA的航空情报能力，将为IBA Insight平台用户实时更新飞机状态，确保问题早发现，早解决。”
IBA Weekly Date: 23/06/2023 (issue 32) Whilst Paris Air Show is known to be quiet on the last two weekdays, no one quite expected the absence of significant business that would continue until late on Monday. This quiet was broken by a blockbuster 500 aircraft order from IndiGo. Air India then followed up by firming their 470 aircraft order the next day. The week had been flush with rumours of large orders, leading IBA to forecast a total greater than 2,000 aircraft. We did not hit that estimate. However, if Turkish Airlines had committed to their rumoured 600 aircraft order, we would’ve been very close! At the time of writing, on Friday lunchtime, the total orders including Firm, MOUs, LOIs and Options reached 1,303 aircraft, worth $72.4bn based on IBA’s 2023 Current Market Values. This is an impressive total, with only 2013 accruing a larger tally. A more interesting detail is that 1,160 (89%) were firm orders, the highest ever. Having firm orders is good news for the programmes in terms of long-term confidence in them as well as securing Pre-Delivery-Payments (PDP). Large orders will allow the operator to demand a superior price, however, the OEM may also be able to benefit from demanding higher PDP in the higher risk transactions. Operators appear to be firming up orders to secure delivery slots in an environment of supply delays. However, with orders of such scale, questions arise as to whether the local markets can accommodate the growth. This is especially the case when the two airlines making the largest orders are in the same country. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence Indian carriers dominated orders as expected The Airbus press conference on Monday got the tally off the ground, announcing 500 new A320 family aircraft for IndiGo. In numerical terms, this eclipsed the 470 Air India order that was firmed on Tuesday, with the Boeing and Airbus announcements happening almost simultaneously, as to avoid one getting more headlines. It is also worth noting that IndiGo already had a backlog of 485 aircraft, putting their new total just shy of the 1,000 mark. IBA values this new order at $28.0bn. Despite the numerical inferiority, IBA value Air India’s order at $33.1bn. This difference can be attributed to Air India also ordering widebodies. Their order in full was 220 aircraft, with Boeing (190x 737 MAXs, 20x 787s and 10x 777Xs) plus 250 aircraft with Airbus (140x A320neos, 70x A321neos and 40x A350s). There is also an option with Boeing for a further 50x 737 MAXs and 20x 787s), which would take their order total to 540. Unlike IndiGo’s Airbus loyalty, the order is split between the two large OEMs, reflecting the very mixed fleet of the Indian flag carrier and its present and future subsidiaries. Including widebodies in the order will likely solidify the airline’s dominant international market share (27.8% share compared to IndiGo’s 10.7% in 2023). The airline severely lags IndiGo in the domestic market share however (26.6% compared with 57.5% of IndiGo). Both are expecting to gain share from each other but will also be reliant on the market’s growth. Recent estimates have the Indian aviation market growing at 9% annually and the country has pledged $12bn to Indian infrastructure. Whether that can accommodate these 970 aircraft before their first flights, is another thing. Avolon led the lessors With the scale of the orders, one could be forgiven for thinking there were lots of participants. Among operators, Western Europeans were conspicuously absent, albeit Ryanair had placed a large 150 aircraft order (plus 150 option) pre-show. It was also the case with lessors. Avolon’s 40x 737s and 20x A330 order, as well as an 80 LEAP engine deal the only large business among them. Interestingly, Avolon’s ratio of orders to current fleet is getting closer to parity, similar to the likes of well-known speculative lessors like Air Lease Corporation (ALC). In an aircraft supply bottleneck, the lessor has more control over lease rental pricing. This is compared to an operator receiving multiple lessor offers for Sale and Leaseback. This relationship of course reverses in oversupply. Their A330s are expected to be delivered through 2026-2029, with the narrowbodies likely in the 2030s. We don’t know what the market will look like then, so these orders are therefore purely speculative. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence Airbus beat Boeing comprehensively The week had success for many OEMs with De-Havilland’s 49 aircraft orders and Embraer’s 28 up among pre-Covid levels. However, the gulf between Airbus and Boeing was quite sizeable. As discussed earlier, IndiGo operate solely A320 family aircraft which pulled the OEM far ahead in the narrowbody stakes. Airbus already led pre-show in total backlog with 8,546 aircraft to Boeing’s 7,069. When looking at the A320neo and 737 MAX alone, the Airbus advantage was 1,300. This is now wider. In the show, Airbus totalled 846 orders. This is over double Boeing’s 356 orders. What is particularly interesting is that Airbus also won on the widebody stakes this year, with 72 firm orders to Boeing’s 40 (excluding 20 on option). Boeing had exceeded Airbus in widebody orders in eight of the last ten years. Boeing will be hoping that production delays to the 777X don’t cause a turning point. Source: IBA Insight & Intelligence This IBA Weekly was written by: Neil FraserHead of Consulting Neil FraserManager - Airline Analysis
IBA’s award-winning Valuations team will be sharing their latest insights on engine values in our new webinar series. In our second edition, Phil Seymour and Jamie Davey will reveal key trends to watch for in 2023, the impact of supply chains and inflation on engines values, values and lease rates update for popular engine types and parts and aftermarket updates. Click here to watch the recording
In the third edition of our IBA Insight series, Mike Yeomans, Denesz Thiyagarajan and Rami Abdel Aziz provided an overview of the eVTOL market, their top due diligence advice and the latest insight on residual values. Watch on Demand It’s estimated that 200 companies are currently working to manufacture electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs). So, what is the market demand for these new technologies, and what will the assets be worth? Topics covered will include: Market overview Development update and entry-into-service timelines Valuation drivers and dynamics Valuation case studies for selected eVTOL types Watch on Demand If you have any further questions, please get in touch with [email protected].
Luisa Barnes, Aviation Analyst [email protected] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a report stating that climate change is set to breach the warming limit, set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By the year 2027, they warn of a global 1.5°C temperature rise for the first time and a 2 in 3 chance that within the next five years, we’ll exceed the crucial 1.5°C threshold during a one-year period. So overall, the IPCC expects the next five years to be the hottest ever on record. What’s more, on top of the global warming from anthropogenic activities, it is probable that the oscillating weather system ‘El Niño’ will force temperatures to record levels and profound emission mitigation is urgently needed if we are to avoid irreversible damage.
How can the aviation industry, and more specifically aviation finance, tackle the existential challenges of ESG regulations? What are the ESG regulations and elements that you should be focusing on as an airline and a lessor? Join IBA’s dedicated ESG Consulting team to explore this and more in our upcoming webinar on Wednesday 26th April at 15:00 BST. Throughout the session, we'll share case studies and examine how specific airlines and lessors have implemented regulations such as EU ETS and CORSIA. Register here
IBA is the leading aviation data, intelligence and advisory company, providing award-winning solutions, valuations and asset management. With unrivalled data intelligence through IBA NetZero and IBA Insight, they work with airlines, financiers, aircraft manufacturers and leasing companies. IBA’s powerful combination of in-house expertise backed up with cutting-edge carbon emissions data from their IBA NetZero platform means IBA is well-adapted to provide industry players with critical support and guidance. In this film, we learn about ESG scoring and assessments, how decarbonizing by 2050 will impact ticket prices and profit and understand how IBA supports companies to achieve their ESG objectives.
Welcome to the Aviation Conversation. In this edition, IBA's Phil Seymour, Peter Walter and Denis Brailsford take a deep dive into the challenges faced by both airlines and lessors when redelivering aircraft, and how both parties can prepare for lease ends.
IBA’s award-winning Valuations team shared their latest insights on aircraft values across all major asset types in our new webinar series. In our first edition, Phil Seymour, Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald will reveal key trends across narrowbody and widebody aircraft, regional jets and turboprops, and freighters. Watch the recording
In this short report, our experts Dr Stuart Hatcher, Geoff van Klaveren and Mike Yeomans share their expectations for the year ahead, examining macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and challenges to airlines and aircraft values.
IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the third session of the series, join Phil Seymour and Mike Yeomans for an overview of the narrowbody market. Watch the recording Topics include: The trajectory of values and lease rates The state of supply and demand Fleet evolution What’s happening in the macroeconomic environment, and the impacts on the sector If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch with Mike Yeomans. The data used in this webinar is from IBA Insight, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. IBA Insight combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.
IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the final session of the series, join Phil Seymour and Rami Abdel Aziz for an overview of the helicopter market. Watch the recording
IBA presents: Ask the Appraiser. Our brand-new series of regular short webinars, designed to deliver you vital updates on how values are performing across the different aviation asset classes. In the first of the series, join our experts Mike Yeomans and Jonathan McDonald for an overview of the freighter market. Watch the recording Topics covered include: The trajectory of freighter values and lease rates The state of supply and demand in air cargo The landscape for P2F conversions What's happening in the macro-economic environment, and the impacts on the sector If you have any further questions, comments or feedback please get in touch with Mike Yeomans. The data used in this webinar is from IBA Insight, our leading intelligence platform for aviation finance. IBA Insight combines speed, accuracy, visual analytics and intuitive navigation to deliver actionable insight from comprehensive, integrated fleet, values, flight, carbon and market aviation data. More information can be found here.
Israel has announced the ban of four-engine aircraft in Israeli airspace, in an effort to reduce noise and air pollution. Whilst the ban is mandated to come into effect from March 2023, it is believed that operators may be discouraged from operating such aircraft even sooner.
IBA 一站式航空情报平台 IBA Insight 全新亮相。IBA 丰富的机队、价值和市场数据，结合航班数据与权威专家见解，为您的投资、风险评估和飞机投资组合监控带来更大的信心和把握。
凭借由获奖 ISTAT 认证评估师组成的庞大团队以及 30 多年累积的专有数据，IBA 在全球估值市场上处于领先地位。我们为全球范围内的一系列资产类型提供独立、公正的价值意见和建议，包括飞机、发动机、直升机、货机/航空货运、降落机位和预备件等。IBA 始终致力于超越客户的期望，我们的客观意见为贷款、资产收回、商业开发和再营销提供了必要的安全保障。
IBA 与全球领先的飞机和发动机租赁公司精诚合作。我们的专业建议植根于深厚的行业知识，因此 IBA 可以在投资周期的各个阶段提供支持，让客户放心无忧。从估值、机队选择、投资组合开发，到租赁结束时的退租和再营销，我们将全程协助客户完成整个租赁期的所有风险评估和资产管理活动。
30 多年来，IBA 与全球和地区航空公司紧密合作，提供估值和咨询服务、航空数据情报以及飞机和发动机的退租支持。我们在遍布世界各地的各种航空项目上与客户展开协作，满足他们的额外资源需求，随时随地提供所需的项目管理支持。
我们掌握着丰富资源并善于出谋划策，可为客户提供诉讼支持和纠纷调解办法，并根据客户的法律策略量身定制周密的解决方案。正是由于 30 多年来专有航空数据的积累、定期参与战略并购，以及丰富的飞机管理专业知识，我们能够经常接触到各方之间的典型争端领域。IBA 通过直接或与客户自己的法律团队合作的方式，在各个方面为客户提供帮助，从飞机损坏或损失的保险相关理赔，到常常在退租时发生的租赁商与承租商的纠纷。
我们通过对全球范围内的飞机历史表现、飞机和发动机价值、维修成本基准调查、大修预测，以及所有固定翼和旋翼式飞机、零部件和发动机的竞争分析进行深入研究，为 MRO 行业提供强大支持。
"如果没有 IBA 及其所有员工的专业帮助、服务和睿智的建议，Goshawk，更严格来说是 Investec，都无法在航空金融和租赁领域达到今天的成就。我们将 IBA 视为成长道路上的重要合作伙伴，随着我们两家公司的持续成长和变化，我们之间的合作关系也将不断深化和发展。"
Andy Carlisle，首席技术官: Goshawk
"国银航空拥有庞大而成功的飞机组合，航线遍布全球。在IBA Insight 的价值板块和机组平台的全力支持下，我们能获取正确的数据信息，从而对我们的飞机和发动机组合进行风险评估、再营销以及销售等环节提供大力支持。"
Betty Chen，国银航空金融租赁股份有限公司: 国银航空
"We have been working with IBA for a number of years, utilizing a number of their professional services. We have always found them to be a trusted partner. Their experience, global reach, speed of response and quality of service have been hallmarks of our long-standing working relationship."
Bradley Gordon, Head Aviation Finance: Africa: Investec
Charlie Jenkins，首席执行官: AVIOCAP
"作为一家拥有自有和租赁飞机和发动机的领先运营商，我们正不断管理、监测和优化我们全面的资产组合。我们将IBA Insight机组和价值情报纳入到交易前尽职调查、投资组合监测过程以及与关键利益相关者的商业讨论中。 我们发现，IBA Insight 的飞机和发动机在线估值、租金和市场分析能力在评估新报价时非常有用。 IBA Insight 数据在全面性和准确性上尤为出色，它让我们对航空市场有了更深入的了解。"
投资管理委员会: 土耳其航空View more
"迄今为止，Six West 取得的成功很大程度上得益于我们能够收集、解读并管理海量的全球飞机运营相关数据。我们依靠智能数据平台提供需要的机队数据，每周这些数据都让我们惊叹不已。"
Jason Williamson，管理合伙人: Six West
Joe McGinley，投资者关系主管: AerCap
Mark Streeter，董事总经理，负责房产业投资信托（REIT）、航空/增级设备信托凭证（EETC）、飞机租赁、铁路、包裹、货运、航运、运输HG/HY覆盖、北美信用研究等业务: 摩根大通
Sabri Gmira, Corporate and Structured Finance的执行董事: ANZ