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IBA's Sustainability Watch: May 2024

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues are now seen as a key risk to aviation investments, and authorities worldwide are demanding more transparency and stricter reporting standards. It’s never been more important to understand the pathways to net zero emissions and their real-term impacts on all key players across the industry. Each month, IBA’s ESG Consulting team share key insights and the latest news from the growing world of sustainable aviation.

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Aircraft Engine Values & Lease Rates: April 2024

Navigating the complexities of the aircraft engine market requires a nuanced understanding of evolving trends in both market values and lease rates. In this comprehensive overview for Q1 2024, we explore the dynamics shaping narrowbody, widebody, and regional aircraft engine segments. From the surge in demand for new-generation engines like the LEAP-1A and GTF™ series to the resilience of regional turboprop engines amidst supply chain challenges, each segment offers unique insights into the aviation industry's current state and future trajectory. Using aircraft engine data and intelligence from IBA Insight, we explore the different segments of the aircraft engine market to provide an analysis of their respective trajectories in terms of value and leasing dynamics. Narrowbody aircraft The dynamic landscape of narrowbody aircraft engines is shaped by evolving market values and lease rates, influenced by factors ranging from operational demand to regulatory directives. New generation engines Source: IBA Insight Source: IBA Insight New generation aircraft engine series, including the CFM LEAP-1A and PW1100G (A320neo family), and CFM LEAP-1B (Boeing 737 MAX), are experiencing increased market values, as observed during IBA’s “Engines Explained” webinar. Specifically, the LEAP-1A and -1B saw notable growth over base values this year, attributed to list price escalations stemming from ongoing issues with new generation engines and heightened operator demand. Despite challenges such as groundings, the leasing market for PW1100G and CFM LEAP-1A engines remains robust, driven by operators' efforts to maintain their A320neo aircraft operations. While lease rates for both engines have surged in response to this demand, rates for the LEAP-1B have remained subdued due to its shorter time in service and resulting lag for scheduled and unscheduled maintenance inductions. Current generation engines Source: IBA Insight Source: IBA Insight Market values for aircraft engines such as the CFM56-7B have increased up to 20%, driven primarily by shop visit demand, supply chain issues for newer generation engines, and the consequent move to extended aircraft and engine leases for current generation assets such as the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320-200. Additionally, market values for the V2500-A5 turbofan model have risen, influenced by its lower relative time on-wing than the CFM56 equivalents, and the impact of several recent Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Airworthiness Directives. In terms of lease rates, aviation data from IBA Insight indicates a recovery to pre-COVID levels, with lease extensions becoming common to minimise downtime. The V2500-A5 emerges as a long-term top performer in this category due to the aforementioned factors, while the CFM56-7B is presently the most in demand engine of the current generation. Widebody aircraft The widebody asset class is witnessing notable shifts in the market dynamics of both mature widebody aircraft engines and their new-generation counterparts. Despite the complexities, both segments are pivotal in shaping the future of aviation technology and market trends. Mature widebody engines Source: IBA Insight Factors such as emerging freighter candidates, notably the A330-300P2F and the 777-300ER P2F, increase demand for specific engine types that cater to this aircraft. For A330ceo engine options, IBA’s engine valuations team has observed increases in adjustments to engine values, notably for the Rolls-Royce Trent 700 and GE Aerospace CF6-80E. Our engine market values have been recalibrated to mirror recent demand, evident in the relationship between base and market values from 2019 to 2024. The GE Aerospace GE90-115 is nearing its base value, following adjustments based on market feedback. Although engines in this family tend to incur high ownership costs, they remain the latest technology for their respective aircraft types. Delays in aircraft programs like the 777X accentuate the importance of engines like the GE90-115. New generation engines Source: IBA Insight Confidence in the GE Aerospace GEnx-1B, which holds the dominant share for engine power on the 787, means favourable market values compared to the Trent 1000 engines. What we are seeing are durability concerns with the Trent 1000 resulting in subdued confidence from operators, as evidenced by Air New Zealand's order cancellations. Despite these challenges, new-generation aircraft engines are the optimum technology, showing continual increases in market values. Regional aircraft engines A notable surge in demand has been observed in the turboprop engine market, particularly for the PW127M and PW150A series, with IBA Insight’s aircraft engine values showing market values rebounding to levels exceeding those before the COVID-19 pandemic. Like narrowbody aircraft engine segment, this uptick is partly attributed to a scarcity of spare engine supply and ongoing production issues faced by Pratt & Whitney Canada, leading operators to rely heavily on the leasing market. Some regional jet engine values have not fully recovered from pre-COVID levels, with adjustments made to reflect cost escalations in the market. The CF34-8E5, which powers Embraer E170 and E175 aircraft, remains in demand, particularly in North America due to pilot scope clauses and market appeal supported by an existing order backlog in the region Source: IBA Insight Source: IBA Insight Looking ahead, market values for aircraft engines like the CF34-8E5 and CF34-8C5 are expected to remain strong, driven by this regional market demand While challenges persist, particularly related to spare engine availability and ongoing technical issues, the regional aircraft engine market continues to evolve, with certain engine types experiencing recovery and others facing ongoing adjustments to market conditions. Want to know more? If you have any further questions, comments, or feedback, please get in touch.

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IBA's Aviation Barometer 2024

IBA’s Aviation Barometer highlights the key trends in global aviation industry as revealed by IBA Insight, the ultimate aviation intelligence platform. Follow us on LinkedIn to get the latest monthly insights What happened in Q1 2024: January - March Monthly global passenger capacity recovery remained above pre-pandemic ASKs across Q1 2024, with March-2024 ASKs at 103% vs 2019. During March 2024, operator capacity from North America, Latin America, and Africa was trending between 110%-115% vs 2019, while ASKs from Europe, APAC and the Middle East were broadly at 2019 levels. Overall, there were approximately 8.11 million commercial passenger flights during Q1-2024, a YoY increase of +10% compared to Q1-2023. International flight volumes grew +19% YoY, while domestic travel showed more modest growth at +6% YoY. There were 252 commercial aircraft deliveries across Q1-2024, representing a variance of -7% and -27% to Q1-2023 and Q1-2018 respectively. So far during 2024, Airbus A320neo deliveries have averaged 40/month, compared to Boeing's 737 MAX at 22/month.

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IBA's Sustainability Watch: May 2024

Aircraft Engine Values & Lease Rates: April 2024

IBA's Aviation Barometer 2024

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