Our experts shine a light on the value and lease rate outlook for the ARJ21 and look at the wider market outlook for the Chinese regional jet.
Image: Peng Chen
Marking its first delivery to Chengdu Airlines, the launch customer in 2015, the COMAC ARJ21 is the Chinese manufacturer’s debut into indigenous regional jet production. Whilst still in the early stages of the product cycle, IBA Insight Fleets reveals the ARJ21-700 has an in-service fleet of 83 aircraft, with around 500 remaining on order.
Combining the latest aircraft values data from IBA Insight’s Aircraft Market Intelligence Reports with the opinions of our experts, we predict that the aircraft’s market value and forecasted base value curves are likely to remain stable in the long term. In IBA’s opinion, the market value of a 6-year-old ARJ21-700 aircraft is USD$12,020,000 in the second half of 2022, around 9% below base value.
“The COMAC ARJ21-700 has a limited, but relatively well-protected market, with the in-service fleet and order book heavily concentrated within domestic China. The ARJ is not yet certified outside of China, which limits its addressable market. However, the aircraft is an important precursor to the COMAC C919 narrowbody, which has recently been certified for operation in China. IBA expects the C919 to offer greater competition to established Airbus and Boeing products within the Chinese aviation market.”
Mike Yeomans – Director - Valuations
IBA has one of the largest teams of certified senior appraisers in the industry. We provide independent advice on wide-ranging, complex asset valuation requirements. From strategic fleet selection, transaction due diligence, portfolio appraisal, and operational decision-making through to annual portfolio and financial compliance monitoring, we'll have you covered! IBA is proud to be the Appointed Appraiser for COMAC ARJ21 Programme.
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According to aircraft order data from IBA Insight, 12 ARJ21-700 aircraft have been delivered to four operators, all of which are based in China. These are China Southern (4 aircraft), Air China (4 aircraft), Chengdu Airlines (3 aircraft) and OTT Airlines (2 aircraft). IBA Insight flights further reveals that Nanchang, Shantou, Yueyang, and Chengdu are the destinations most frequently served by the aircraft.
“The bulk of the Covid-19 pandemic appears to have had minimal effect on the ARJ21 program, with deliveries in 2020 being almost twice at 2019 levels. That said, the continued lockdowns and ‘Zero Covid’ policy do now appear to be having an impact, most with deliveries notably slowing following a rise in cases after March 2022.”
Jie Zhou – Manager, Market Analysis
The number of secondary market transactions for the ARJ21 has also shown steady growth since 2017. Initially featuring sale and leaseback events, transactions in recent years have diversified to include sale and finance lease transactions.
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In the first in our series of ‘Ask the Appraiser’ webinars, our experts Jonathan McDonald and Mike Yeomans examined the trajectory of freighter values, identified the hottest trends in P2F conversions, and explored the impact of macroeconomic factors on the air cargo market.
屡获殊荣的航空分析和咨询公司IBA在著名的Airline Economics航空百强奖评选中荣获2022年年度评估机构。迄今为止，公司已第五次获得该称号，之前分别于2012年、2018年、2020年和2021年获得该奖项。 此外，IBA的碳排放计算器赢得了Airline Economics的首个百大航空可持续发展技术奖，这是为表彰可持续金融和技术方面的成就而推出的一个全新奖项。 该奖项由专家评审团评定。今年，Airline Economics要求航空行业考量各家公司对新冠疫情的反应，包括他们筹集额外资金、管理新运营环境的能力以及整体危机应对和恢复的能力。 整个2021年，IBA进行了8000多次投资组合估值和评估，并继续评估超过90%的资产支持证券(ABS)和增强型设备信任证书 (EETC)结构。在这一年中，公司任命Geoffrey van Klaveren为董事总经理，业务顾问，负责监管IBA的所有专业服务以及管理新加入美国及亚太地区的团队成员，从而加强了IBA估值服务能力。 IBA总裁Phil Seymour表示： “自公司成立以来，估值一直是IBA工作的核心，我们非常荣幸能够获得客户的认可，授予我们这一享有盛誉的奖项。” “已经证实，我们的碳排放计算器为租赁商和金融机构带来了重大变革，因为他们现在可以看到准确、独家的机队排放图，为他们指导长期规划提供更有效的见解。” 在过去的12个月里，IBA的InsightIQ智能数据平台提供了集成和直观的飞行分析，每年跟踪超过3500万架次航班和超过65000架商用飞机。该平台提供超过65年的商用飞机和发动机专有机队数据、价值、航班使用信息、市场数据、碳排放模型和航空新闻。 碳排放计算器(CEC)是IBA在2021年对该平台进行的一项重要升级。碳排放计算器使用户能够分析和比较航空公司和租赁商Scope 1的排放情况。 此外，IBA还举办了一系列由ISTAT认证专家主持的行业网络研讨会。网络研讨会涉及各类主题，其中就包括2050航空净零目标的影响以及探讨如何跟进宽体和窄体飞机全球复苏情况以及发动机价值范围。这些网络研讨会为评估师们提供全面的市场视角。 有关IBA咨询和估值服务的更多信息，请访问：https://www.iba.aero/advisory-and-valuations/valuations/ -结束- 关于IBA IBA在提供航空业独立、专业的业务分析和情报方面拥有30多年的经验。公司成立于1988年，提供广泛的服务，其中包括结合了速度、准确性、可视化分析和直观导航的一站式智能平台InsightIQ。 IBA为著名的投资基金和银行、飞机租赁公司、运营商、制造商和 MRO提供咨询服务。2021年3月，IBA第四次被Airline Economics评为 “年度评估机构” 。 如需更多信息，请访问 www.iba.aero IBA媒体联系人 Esther Molina 电子邮箱：[email protected] 电话: +60 11 5649 5594
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