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The air cargo industry, in a constant state of flux, is presently navigating significant shifts in market trends and the types of aircraft servicing it. Primarily driven by additions to the fleet outpacing retirements, available capacity for both dedicated freighters and belly cargo has notably increased. This capacity expansion is also due to the rising dominance of larger aircraft, such as the 737-800 compared to predecessor aircraft, in the converted narrowbody segment, contributing to an approximate 20% surge in pallet capacity. Simultaneously, the aircraft conversion market is experiencing oversaturation due to finite demand for aircraft and a high conversion rate of nearly 190 narrowbody and widebody aircraft combined annually. This highlights the need for the market to stabilise and return to the conversion numbers seen in 2021-2022, or perhaps even less. In this shifting landscape, looking to future programs, the Airbus A350F has gained popularity among lessors and operators, largely due to its seamless integration with existing passenger fleets which also enjoys a wide operator base. The later launch of its competitor, the Boeing 777-8F, has further solidified Airbus's market position. Nevertheless, the Boeing 777F maintains a loyal customer base expected to transition to the newer model in due course. This article delves into the complex dynamics of the air cargo industry, focusing on the value of freighter aircraft, influenced by a range of factors from the supply and demand of narrow and widebody aircraft to the impact of conversion programmes and the influence of political and economic elements. The goal is to provide a comprehensive analysis that offers valuable insights for all stakeholders in the aviation industry.
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Growth in aviation in the Asia Pacific market has been truly astounding over the last 40 years. In the 1980s the Chinese civil aviation market began to fragment, freeing up a new tranche of operators within the country. CAAC (the airline division of the Civil Aviation Administration of China) was no longer “the” carrier of the country and new entrants such as China Eastern and China Southern were soon created. CAAC would eventually become Air China. With all this growth, which manufacturers would all these operators turn to to fulfil their aircraft requirements? Airbus & Boeing The Boeing 737-700 and -800 went on to succeed in China backed up by a small penetration from the -600 and 900/900ER variants. Aviation fleet data from IBA Insight shows that nearly 200 x Boeing 737-700s were delivered to Chinese operators though it was the 737-800 that really shone in that market; with well over 1,300 delivered. Airbus also had a similar success in China with its ceo models; with similar numbers of A319s, over 800 x A320s and 350 x A321s finding domicile there. Whichever way one looks at it the Chinese operators have embraced Boeing and Airbus products in the core narrowbody sector, especially in the popular 160-189 seat capacity. Airbus has successfully set up its production facility in Tianjin for the A320 family. To date, at least 120 x Boeing 737 MAX 8, 415 x Airbus A320neo and 170 x A321neo aircraft are in service in China, and while the backlog for the two programs in the country is difficult to measure, an estimate is for at least 600 aircraft with Airbus slightly ahead. These numbers are on the conservative side, especially when one considers that China has been slow to re-establish the Boeing 737 MAX service entry. COMAC China has a well-established aircraft industry, not just in military applications, but has long been building civilian aircraft. Various models have been more successful than others. The current 90-seat capacity COMAC ARJ21 entered service in June 2016 some years behind schedule. Nevertheless, there are now over 125 in service across 10+ airlines, mostly in China with an ever-growing fleet and a backlog in the hundreds. However, the ARJ21 is targeted closer to the regional sector as it is only a 90-seat aircraft, which is not an overly large part of the Chinese market. The optimum spot for aircraft manufacture is in the 160-230 seat sector, i.e. Boeing 737-800/900ER/MAX 8/9/10 and Airbus A320-200/200N, 321-200/200N territory. The COMAC C919 is designed to tackle the space occupied by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX 8, by offering similar characteristics to these models. First flown in May 2017, the COMAC C919 had a lengthy and prolonged test flight program, not entering revenue service until 28th May 2023 with China Eastern Airlines between Shanghai Hongqiao Airport and Beijing Capital. There are now 5 examples in service with China Eastern. C919 market penetration progress has been slow as only 5 have been delivered in nearly a year, compared to at least 40 Airbus A320NEOs that have been delivered to Chinese airlines within the same time frame. Despite this slow start, aircraft order data from IBA Insight shows over 1,000 orders for the COMAC C919. Recently, we have seen orders from the big three Chinese airlines for over 300 C919s. In terms of firm aircraft orders: Air China (100) China Southern (105) China Eastern (105) To put this into context Air China has 310 Airbus A320CEO/NEO or Boeing 737NG/MAX aircraft in service plus at least 75 Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies on backorder. China Southern has at least 520 between the two OEMs in service plus 193 on backlog. For China Eastern, the data shows 515 Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s in service, plus at least 210 yet to be delivered. In terms of market values of new aircraft; data from IBA Insight shows the Boeing 737 MAX 8 at US$ 54 million, much the same as a new Airbus A320NEO. Market lease rates for either the Boeing 737 MAX 8 or Airbus A320NEO range between US$ 360,000 and US$ 400,000 on a new aircraft, depending on credit risk. Due to the C919’s limited market penetration currently in China, it is unlikely the model will attract Boeing 737 MAX 8 or Airbus A320NEO values and as such pricing is likely to be lower. IBA Insight suggests a US$ 45.5 million market value for a new COMAC C919 and a market lease rate range of between US$ 310,000 and US$ 336,000. Final thoughts Not only has China operated Western-built aircraft since the early 1970s, but the country has been dependent on them to fuel its remarkable growth. Boeing and Airbus have had significant success with their 737 and A320 families and the two competing programs dominate this crucial market. China’s attempts to build indigenous aircraft have varied in success, however, the C919 may be the first on track to impact those crucial Boeing and Airbus narrowbody programs at least within its home market. The recent orders from Air China, China Eastern and China Southern for the C919 are a testament to this. While COMAC works to get international certification on the C919, the aircraft is effectively confined to a domicile market, restricting sales into foreign markets. These constraints and unknowns invariably lead to somewhat more conservative valuations, hence why IBA’s own values and lease rates for the C919 sit below the similar age Boeing 737 MAX 8 and Airbus A320neo. Should these unknowns be unlocked, IBA sees no reason why the C919 should not become a global success in the long term, with these 3 recent major orders giving impetus to this.
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