Aircraft Values & Lease Rates: September 2023

Utilising combined research from our ISTAT-certified experts and aviation intelligence from our IBA Insight platform, here are some of key points from the past 12 months and IBA’s forecasts for the future:

• Overall: Passenger aircraft trades follow a downward trend due to lagging new aircraft supply and portfolio trades. For the most part, sales off-lease are close to pre-2020 levels and flat compared to the 10-year average.

• Aircraft supply: Slow supply of new aircraft is supporting the value and lease rate recovery of previous generation narrowbodies too. For instance, an A321-200 market value was at US$25.5m in July 2023 and is expected to rise to US$26.3m by January 2024. 

• Aircraft leases: IBA forecasts the number of passenger aircraft lease starts to continue increasing. This is supported by rising orders by operators who will become more reliant on lessors to finance future deliveries. Following this, IBA also expects demand for new leases to accelerate as the delivery mix shifts.

• Narrowbodies: IBA forecasts aircraft market values to grow for new narrowbodies as escalation takes effect and supply remains constrained. For instance, an A321-200NX with a market value of US$63.4m in July 2023 is IBA forecasted to be US$64.8m by January 2024. The Boeing 737 MAX 8 at US$52.7m in July 2023 is set to rise to US$55m by January 2024.

• Widebodies: Widebody aircraft market values are set to grow in 2024, with the support of long-haul demand recovery and low production rates. A new A350-1000 market value was US$170.5m in July 2023, with a rise to US$173.9m forecast by January 2024. For mid-life widebodies, an A330-300 is forecast to rise significantly from US$14.9m in July 2023 to US$20m in January 2024.

To view more of our market update and access the full webinar on demand, click here.

If you have any further questions, comments or feedback, please get in touch with Mike Yeomans.