Newswatch, 28th June 2017

This week NewsWatch is all about the results from the Paris Airshow. I’d like to share with you Stuart Hatcher’s key take outs, order tallies and his thoughts on what the results might mean for the industry. He sums up the event below but if you would like to read our full Paris debrief then click here  to download or on the image below.

Paris Airshow 2017 Debrief
Stuart Hatcher, CIO
stuart.hatcher@iba.aero

Not since 2012 have we seen Boeing take the lead in orders (firm plus Memorandum of Understanding [MoU]) at either Paris or Farnborough. In 2012 the reason was the launch of the 737 Max only 11 months previously; this time the winner was also the 737 Max 8, but with the added benefit of some launch orders for the 737 Max 10.
Once all the firm, MoUs, and options are taken into account, the 2017 show was very successful – with a total of 1,258 units. OEM’s may argue that the number is closer to 1,481 but that would include the conversions from existing orders already so these need to be removed from the equation.
The Max was out front with 573 firm/MoUs followed by the neo with 277. Boeing led the way with the 787 over the XWB at 5:1 and as expected some current generation aircraft also made it on to the list.
The lessors were most bullish with their orders; the recent poor sale leaseback performance looks to be the driver. It will be interesting to see how these speculative orders will be priced closer to delivery.  Airlines will always give a steady stream of orders, because there is the added bonus of a new model launch and the launch discounts that come with it.
As expected for Boeing and Airbus given the diminishing returns for the traditional sale and leaseback market, the order tally was dominated by the lessors (484 firm + MoUs), over the airlines (431 firm + MoUs), with 155 coming from undisclosed customers; remarkably reminiscent of the Farnborough 2014 final tally. These figures do not include the 208 conversions to Max 10s from smaller 737 Max aircraft.
Excluding the large GECAS order, as predicted the bulk of orders came from the Chinese owned lessors, with Avolon, CALC and CDB jumping out, whilst Tibet Financial Leasing made its entry statement with an order for 40 aircraft split evenly between the neo and Max. Further east, JP Lease Products through JIA made its first direct purchase with the OEM’s.

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on Paris, please drop me or Stu a line.

I’ll be back next week with news of our June market update

Best regards,
Phil Seymour
Philseymour@iba.aero

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