IBA has recently updated InsightIQ with its latest widebody aircraft value opinions with respect to fixed-wing commercial passenger aircraft as of July 2021.
The outlook for the mature widebody fleet remains one of oversupply and soft value performance, with the oldest generation aircraft having suffered worst. The newest generation Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 families have held their values with the greatest vigour, however even the latest technology models have not escaped some value decline in IBA’s latest update.
The newest technology aircraft models in the form of the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 families have continued to hold their value relatively well. The Slower recovery in this market segment has translated into weaker asset value and lease rate performance across the widebody aircraft spectrum. Airbus A330neo deliveries have averaged just 0.9 per month.
A 3 to 5-year-old Airbus A350-900 typically attracts a lease rate in the range of US$ 625 – 720 k per month according to IBA’s latest update. The value of a new Airbus A350-900 aircraft is US$ 145.66 million. Transactions for the Airbus A350-1000 are in the range of US$ 160 million for new delivery aircraft, which has led IBA to its new aircraft value of US$ 160.22 million.
The Boeing 787-8 is maturing and IBA has seen some distressed scenarios within the market, driven by the exit of aircraft from Norwegian. Both current Market and Base Value have declined by around 9% for the Boeing 787-8.
The Boeing 787-9 has a strong order book of 336 aircraft and a broad market presence. Although IBA has made some negative adjustments of around 3.4%, reflecting the current market conditions, we are confident of a recovery and therefore our Base Value view is unaltered.
A new delivery Boeing 787-10 is valued at US$ 153.5 million. The type has received some upward adjustments in terms of Market Values. Market values have risen 8.5% across all vintages.
The mature widebody market faced challenges before the pandemic. Despite values and lease rates sinking to new lows in our recent update for some worst-affected models, there are some glimmers of hope on the horizon.
Market Values of the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 have fallen by 27.6% on average. Despite positive outlook on P2F demand, IBA’s value recovery analysis of passenger A330 aircraft has concluded that further Base Value cuts were necessary. Base Values have been adjusted downward by an average of 25.4% across all A330ceo vintages.
The cargo carrying capability of the Boeing 777-300ER has aided its pandemic performance. A Passenger to Freighter program has been launched by GECAS and IAI, but we are still 1-2 years away from aircraft entering serial conversion and a ramp up in deliveries. Until then, passenger aircraft values continue to suffer. Aircraft aged 12-14 years are now typically valued at between US$ 26 – 35 million. Market Values have declined by 21.7% on average and Base Values have fallen by 26.3%.
The Airbus A380 has seen more positive developments of late as operators bring some aircraft back to service. Unfortunately, this is not sufficient to justify any increases in market values, which remain largely unchanged since IBA’s 1st half update.
IBA’s value opinion is fed by a combination of analysis, research, discussion with the trading and leasing community and comparison with similar data points. We compare, analyse, and scrutinise transactions we see in the market and discuss these amongst our elite appraiser team through regular value forums to ensure our value opinion is relevant, well-researched and of the highest quality.
If you have any further questions please contact Mike Yeomans.
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