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InsightIQ

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

記事Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions詳細をご覧ください

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors

記事Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors詳細をご覧ください

There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees.   IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate.   1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC).   Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)   Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC   Read the full case study here   Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study:   Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR.   All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo

Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

記事Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?詳細をご覧ください

Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

日本の航空市場の進化する構造

記事The Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation Market詳細をご覧ください

概要 日本の就役航空機フリートの19％は、駐機または保管機である。 日本の航空会社による航空機の利用率は、世界的な傾向と同様に、まだコロナ禍以前のレベルまで回復していない。 しかし、日本の航空市場は堅調で、今後数年間でアジア太平洋地域の成長機会に恵まれる。 今後10年以内に大規模なフリートの置き換えが見込まれているが、Boeing 737 MAXの遅延により、その割合は不確実である。 2020年から2021年3月までの流通市場取引ではセール・アンド・リースバックが9件記録され、大部分を占めた。 JOLCOの取引量は昨年減少したが、新しい航空機需要が回復するにつれて同取引量も回復すると予想される。

What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

記事What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?詳細をご覧ください

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis.  In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

What Does Aercap’s Acquisition Of GECAS Mean For Aircraft Leasing?

記事Flights circled on a world map詳細をご覧ください

Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact for aircraft leasing following the announcement of AerCap’s intention to acquire GECAS.   AerCap’s announcement on 10th March 2021 of its intended acquisition of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) will, if approved, give it a 54% holding of a superpower lessor which owns and manages an in-service fleet approaching 2,100 aircraft, has an order backlog of more than 500 units and an aggregate customer base of nearly 300 operators. As announced by both parties, General Electric-owned GECAS will receive USD 24 bn in cash from AerCap along with USD 111.5 m newly issued AerCap shares and USD 1 bn AerCap notes/cash. With diverse geographical distributions and varying customer base and asset type exposures, what impact will a leasing giant in control of almost 14% of the entire fleet have on the aviation sector and rival lessors?

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

記事A fleet of aeroplanes詳細をご覧ください

Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

Will The Recent Pratt & Witney 4000-112 Engine Failure Have A Lasting Impact On Storage Levels For Older Pratt & Whitney-Powered 777 Aircraft Fleet?

記事Passengers onboarding aircraft詳細をご覧ください

In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA’s analyst Geoffroy Robin uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.  

China’s Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

記事Domestic plane travelling over new year詳細をご覧ください

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

2021年の主な航空業界のテーマ:どこにポジティブな兆候が見られるか

記事Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism詳細をご覧ください

IBAの最高収益責任者であるStuart Hatcher博士は、2021年の見通しにおいて、2021年の路線、取引、資産価値、航空会社の倒産に関するIBAの意見を共有しています。 「2020年が終わった今、私たちは2021年以降にポジティブになれる兆候があるのかどうかに目を向けることができます。  長く時間のかかる予防接種プロセスが進行中で、これは前向きな進展ですが、現実的にいつになったら現在の市場における深刻な状況が緩和され始めると予測できるでしょうか？」

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

記事What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?詳細をご覧ください

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

記事US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity詳細をご覧ください

Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.  

Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta

記事Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta詳細をご覧ください

Using fleet data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, it’s possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

記事What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?詳細をご覧ください

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family. 

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

記事Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?詳細をご覧ください

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?

記事How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?詳細をご覧ください

The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.  

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

記事Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?詳細をご覧ください

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

記事Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity詳細をご覧ください

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

記事High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021詳細をご覧ください

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?

記事Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?詳細をご覧ください

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

記事Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?詳細をご覧ください

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?

記事Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?詳細をご覧ください

Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

記事Boeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.詳細をご覧ください

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

記事Power by the Hour Lease Rates詳細をご覧ください

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

記事Man looking at engine詳細をご覧ください

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

記事Wing of plane mid flight詳細をご覧ください

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

記事Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?詳細をご覧ください

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

購買後市場と部品

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

記事Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?詳細をご覧ください

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

記事How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?詳細をご覧ください

This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

価値

Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

記事Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?詳細をご覧ください

Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

記事Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots詳細をご覧ください

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

2021年の主な航空業界のテーマ:どこにポジティブな兆候が見られるか

記事Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism詳細をご覧ください

IBAの最高収益責任者であるStuart Hatcher博士は、2021年の見通しにおいて、2021年の路線、取引、資産価値、航空会社の倒産に関するIBAの意見を共有しています。 「2020年が終わった今、私たちは2021年以降にポジティブになれる兆候があるのかどうかに目を向けることができます。  長く時間のかかる予防接種プロセスが進行中で、これは前向きな進展ですが、現実的にいつになったら現在の市場における深刻な状況が緩和され始めると予測できるでしょうか？」

How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?

記事How Has Covid-19 Affected Material Fair Market Values?詳細をご覧ください

This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values.   ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV).   For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

記事Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?詳細をご覧ください

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

記事Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity詳細をご覧ください

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

Will Values Be Adjusted on the MAX's Return?

記事Boeing 737 MAX on the tarmac being tugged.詳細をご覧ください

Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

記事What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020詳細をご覧ください

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

記事Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020詳細をご覧ください

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

IBA BizJet Valuations, January 2020

記事IBA BizJet Valuations, January 2020詳細をご覧ください

Buying aircraft, whether private or commercial, can be a complicated, time-consuming process with potential for plenty of twists, turns, pitfalls and surprises along the way. Thorough due diligence is crucial before purchasing decisions are made; the values involved mean errors can cost millions of dollars.

What Is A Landing Slot And How Much Is One Worth? December 2019

記事What Is A Landing Slot And How Much Is One Worth? December 2019詳細をご覧ください

IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations, having completed a variety of assignments at airports including LHR and LGW. These valuations have been for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots.

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

記事IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019詳細をご覧ください

How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots.   David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast.   If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

記事IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019詳細をご覧ください

IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

How Would Aircraft Appraisers Value Concorde Today? March 2019

記事How Would Aircraft Appraisers Value Concorde Today? March 2019詳細をご覧ください

With the recent 50th anniversary of the Concorde's maiden flight, IBA's Phil Seymour, CEO, discusses how aircraft appraisers would value Concorde today.

Impairment of Asset Values Set to Become a Real Issue

記事Impairment of Asset Values Set to Become a Real Issue詳細をご覧ください

After a long period of stability and growth in the aviation industry the prospect of asset impairment is starting to rear its head, according to Phil Seymour, the CEO of IBA.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

記事Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018詳細をご覧ください

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

記事IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018詳細をご覧ください

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

Due Diligence - What Is Your Deal Really Worth? April 2018

記事Due Diligence - What Is Your Deal Really Worth? April 2018詳細をご覧ください

There was a great deal of activity concerning aircraft lease portfolios during the first few months of 2018. IBA has been advising various investors, with a broad range of investment objectives, with surprising results. Whereas typically investors are seeking at least a 7% return, in some deals the returns were much leaner than anticipated, in others break-even was the optimistic outcome. Both market share and an eagerness to develop a relationship with a particular operator were highlighted as objectives in these cases. With such lean returns, one theme is common to all; robust due diligence (DD) ahead of purchase and a focus on expert ongoing servicing is essential to maximise the opportunity to realise target returns.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

記事IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017詳細をご覧ください

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017

記事Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017詳細をご覧ください

Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.

IBA & KPMG Seminar Slides: Depreciation, Residual Values and Useful Economic Lives, May 2017

記事IBA & KPMG Seminar Slides: Depreciation, Residual Values and Useful Economic Lives, May 2017詳細をご覧ください

In this session IBA partners with KPMG to present an accounting and commercial update, discussing depreciation, residual values and useful economic lives.

Improving Valuations, January 2017

記事Improving Valuations, January 2017詳細をご覧ください

Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy for Avolon, published a challenging thought paper last year assessing aircraft appraisers. I want to respond to Dick's thoughts wearing two hats - as the CEO of IBA, a leading aviation consultancy with some 30 years' appraisal experience and data, and as the former chairman of the ISTAT International Appraisers' Program. The timing is right for three reasons - Dick makes many excellent points that need to be kept front of mind as our industry develops; 2017 will likely be the most volatile market for years making appraisal opinion even more important; and Dick and I will debate our respective positions at the AFJ conference in Dublin and this serves as a prelude.

所有権

The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?

記事The Technical Records Of Your Assets: How Would You Fare In A Friendly Hand Back Or Repossession Situation?詳細をご覧ください

A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

記事Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020詳細をご覧ください

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

記事IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018詳細をご覧ください

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

エンジン

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

記事Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions詳細をご覧ください

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Will The Recent Pratt & Witney 4000-112 Engine Failure Have A Lasting Impact On Storage Levels For Older Pratt & Whitney-Powered 777 Aircraft Fleet?

記事Passengers onboarding aircraft詳細をご覧ください

In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA’s analyst Geoffroy Robin uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.  

Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?

記事Is There a Bright Future for Green Time Engines?詳細をご覧ください

An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

記事Man looking at engine詳細をご覧ください

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

記事Wing of plane mid flight詳細をご覧ください

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

What is the Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings on the LEAP-1B? November 2019

記事What is the Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings on the LEAP-1B? November 2019詳細をご覧ください

For CFMI, it would appear that the impact of the 737 MAX grounding has not been detrimental to the LEAP-1B. There remains a strong market outlook for this engine and looking at the Base Value, Half Life, it is performing well and is on par with competing engines in the market. As illustrated in the chart below, there has been no impact on values.

IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019

記事IBA's Engine Valuation Methodology, October 2019詳細をご覧ください

How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots.   David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast.   If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer

IBA Identifies A New Trend In Mature Aircraft Asset Management, October 2019

記事IBA Identifies A New Trend In Mature Aircraft Asset Management, October 2019詳細をご覧ください

  Using the valuation tool InsightIQ, it considers the lease rate comparison of several A320 vintages and their respective engines.   London/Dublin/Tokyo - October 3rd 2019: IBA, the independent aviation advisory, valuation and consulting firm has identified a growing trend in mature aircraft management where the leasing of core engine assets is managed separately to the aircraft as a whole. This is becoming increasingly evident based upon the strengths of the CFM-56-5/7B and V2500-A5 engines within the A320 and 737NG fleets.

Is There An Impact On The Engine Market From The 737 MAX Groundings?

記事Is There An Impact On The Engine Market From The 737 MAX Groundings?詳細をご覧ください

IBA Report by David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst: issued September 2019   The grounding of the 737 MAX fleet has been one of the most widely discussed aviation events of recent history. Following two tragic accidents, the 737 MAX fleet remains grounded until the world's aviation authorities deem it fit for service. Speculation has inevitably turned to the impact on the market and the longer term ramifications for both the aircraft and the engines.

IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019

記事IBA's Engine Market Update Webinar, March 2019詳細をご覧ください

IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

記事What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018詳細をご覧ください

Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

Will The Engine Lease Market Be Able To Meet Critical Demand For Spare Engines?

記事Will The Engine Lease Market Be Able To Meet Critical Demand For Spare Engines?詳細をご覧ください

Our engine analysts have been investigating recent concerns of spare engine and parts shortages for three commonly traded engines, the V2500-A5, CFM56-7B and -5B. Our findings suggest that the engine lease market will not be able to support the 25-35% increase in shop visit rates forecast for CFM56-7B and -5B engines and continuing strong demand for V2500's in the period 2019-2024. There is currently very limited availability of spares and unless more spare engines are generated by retirements and aircraft teardowns, or airline held spare stock absorbs some of the demand, IBA expect engine inductions and longer TATs will create a log jam further intensified by the impact of compound shop visits i.e. first run, second run and third run overlapping.

Evolution of Technology in the Engine Market, April 2018

記事Evolution of Technology in the Engine Market, April 2018詳細をご覧ください

Rather than invest large sums of money into the development of clean-sheet airframe designs, in recent years OEMs have elected to redesign, improve and re-engine already successful airframes for the next generation of aircraft. In many of these cases, the engine accounts for a significant proportion of the efficiency savings.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

記事IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017詳細をご覧ください

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

記事How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017詳細をご覧ください

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

IBA talk 777 and A380 engines in Aircraft Commerce magazine, May 2017

記事IBA talk 777 and A380 engines in Aircraft Commerce magazine, May 2017詳細をご覧ください

The 777 has long been established in its market of medium- and long-haul routes, as the world's largest twin engine commercial aircraft. The 777 entered service in 1995 via the 777-200, and now comprises five passenger series: the 777-200, -200ER, -200LR, -300, and -300ER. There is also a freighter version, the 777-200F. The 777 seats 310-390 passengers, depending on the series, and class configuration and layout of passenger accommodations (LOPA).

Regional & Narrowbody Engines, February 2017

記事Regional & Narrowbody Engines, February 2017詳細をご覧ください

The fleet of in-service, passenger configured regional and narrowbody aircraft has increased by one-third over the past 10 years. This growing fleet will require used spare engines for various purposes, including the provision of cover for maintenance shop visits. Aircraft Commerce has analysed the regional and narrowbody used engine market to provide a summary of demand, value and lease rate trends.

ヘリコプター

IBA's Helicopter Values Guide 2020

記事IBA's Helicopter Values Guide 2020詳細をご覧ください

Unlike the fixed wing market, helicopter utilisation appears to have stabilised and returned to near normal levels in some sectors. As the pandemic took hold earlier this year, we saw demand for helicopters impacted by travel restrictions preventing workers reaching offshore and wind facilities, and also by extremely low oil pricing.   With restrictions easing mid-year, we have subsequently seen utilisation rates strengthening as delayed maintenance of wind turbines resumed and workers returning to offshore sites. With demand for medical air transportation also rising, we are seeing strong utilisations of helicopters across HEMS as a result.   In summary, utilisation has stabilised, orders and transactions have reduced but as fewer units have come on the market, the value of limited stock has held better than expected.   To review values of key commercial helicopters, download a copy of IBA’s Helicopter Values Guide 2020 using the link below. Helicopter Values Guide 2020

How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020

記事How is Covid-19 Impacting the Helicopter Market Worldwide? June 2020詳細をご覧ください

IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

記事Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?詳細をご覧ください

The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

IBA's 2019 Helicopter Values Guide

記事IBA's 2019 Helicopter Values Guide詳細をご覧ください

It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.

IBA's Global Helicopter Market Update May 2019

記事IBA's Global Helicopter Market Update May 2019詳細をご覧ください

The recent announcement of Bristow filing for CH11 once again illustrates the challenges faced by those investing and operating in the Helicopter Market. Despite the challenges, there are some positive signs in the market and low levels of growth are forecast for the coming years - up to 4%, with Asia providing some new opportunities.

How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?

記事How Will the Helicopter Market Evolve In 2019?詳細をご覧ください

With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.

移行

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

記事Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?詳細をご覧ください

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

記事Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020詳細をご覧ください

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020

記事Aircraft Interiors During Lease Return: The Inside Story, February 2020詳細をご覧ください

Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

記事Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019詳細をご覧ください

Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

記事Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018詳細をご覧ください

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

How Far Away Is The Tipping Point For The A320ceo/Neo And B737NG/MAX Transition? June 2018

記事How Far Away Is The Tipping Point For The A320ceo/Neo And B737NG/MAX Transition? June 2018詳細をご覧ください

IBA's recent Market Update analysis covered a range of market dynamics including our thoughts on the Farnborough Airshow orders, the New Mid-Sized Aircraft and operator profitability. If you missed it, the materials can be accessed here.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

記事IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018詳細をご覧ください

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017

記事How do OEM Engine Maintenance Contracts Affect the Ability to Remarket Aircraft? September 2017詳細をご覧ください

Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.

Best industry practice for aircraft lease transitions in Aircraft Commerce, March 2017

記事Best industry practice for aircraft lease transitions in Aircraft Commerce, March 2017詳細をご覧ください

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says that about 40% of the global commercial aircraft fleet is under operating lease, and that trends indicate this percentage will increase. It emphasises the challenges that can arise when the lessee and lessor look at a lease from different perspectives.

航空機マネージメント

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

記事Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots詳細をご覧ください

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

記事Aviation Market Analysis詳細をご覧ください

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

記事What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?詳細をご覧ください

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

記事Power by the Hour Lease Rates詳細をご覧ください

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

記事Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)詳細をご覧ください

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

記事Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)詳細をご覧ください

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020

記事Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020詳細をご覧ください

Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.

Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019

記事Revisiting Redeliveries in 2019詳細をご覧ください

Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.

Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018

記事Why Regular Inspections Are A Good Idea, October 2018詳細をご覧ください

As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

記事IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018詳細をご覧ください

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

Maintenance Reserves - a $24bn business, January 2019

記事Maintenance Reserves - a $24bn business, January 2019詳細をご覧ください

The maintenance reserves industry is estimated to be worth $24bn per annum. Optimising your position to reduce financial exposure is a must for airlines and their stakeholders when selecting aircraft types, agreeing maintenance reserves, forecasting and modelling maintenance events and cash flow.   Download IBA's quick guide for steps to consider before, during and at the end of a lease that will improve your cash flow and reduce exposure.

リース価格

Power by the Hour Lease Rates

記事Power by the Hour Lease Rates詳細をご覧ください

What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing?   The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines.  Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors.  This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.

Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates

記事Depressed Outlook for 737 MAX Lease Rates詳細をご覧ください

Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates.   As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.

Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.

記事Historical Lease Rate Performance - 777-300ER. January 2020.詳細をご覧ください

As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.

Operating Leases - the hidden costs and pitfalls to avoid. What to do? November 2019

記事Operating Leases - the hidden costs and pitfalls to avoid. What to do? November 2019詳細をご覧ください

In this joint session between IBA's Peter Walter and Guljar Lehri and IATA's DeeDee Doke and Chris Markou, we look at how airlines can manage their operating leases to avoid millions of dollars of unwanted and hidden cost.

IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019

記事IBA's Lease Rate Analysis - A330-300. December 2019詳細をご覧ください

The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

記事Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019詳細をご覧ください

Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?

記事How Low Will A330 Lease Rates Go?詳細をご覧ください

The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time.   Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.

What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018

記事What to Look for When Valuing an Engine, March 2018詳細をご覧ください

Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.

IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018

記事IBA's Redelivery Whitepaper: The Picture in 2018詳細をご覧ください

IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.

IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017

記事IBA Contributes to an Aircraft Commerce Article on Widebody Engine Performance, September 2017詳細をご覧ください

Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.

Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017

記事Changing composition of financing sources in aviation, February 2017詳細をご覧ください

Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.

マーケット分析

Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?

記事Will HNA Group’s Bankruptcy Send Hainan Airlines into a Tailspin?詳細をご覧ください

Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

記事Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots詳細をご覧ください

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

日本の航空市場の進化する構造

記事The Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation Market詳細をご覧ください

概要 日本の就役航空機フリートの19％は、駐機または保管機である。 日本の航空会社による航空機の利用率は、世界的な傾向と同様に、まだコロナ禍以前のレベルまで回復していない。 しかし、日本の航空市場は堅調で、今後数年間でアジア太平洋地域の成長機会に恵まれる。 今後10年以内に大規模なフリートの置き換えが見込まれているが、Boeing 737 MAXの遅延により、その割合は不確実である。 2020年から2021年3月までの流通市場取引ではセール・アンド・リースバックが9件記録され、大部分を占めた。 JOLCOの取引量は昨年減少したが、新しい航空機需要が回復するにつれて同取引量も回復すると予想される。

What Does Aercap’s Acquisition Of GECAS Mean For Aircraft Leasing?

記事Flights circled on a world map詳細をご覧ください

Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact for aircraft leasing following the announcement of AerCap’s intention to acquire GECAS.   AerCap’s announcement on 10th March 2021 of its intended acquisition of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) will, if approved, give it a 54% holding of a superpower lessor which owns and manages an in-service fleet approaching 2,100 aircraft, has an order backlog of more than 500 units and an aggregate customer base of nearly 300 operators. As announced by both parties, General Electric-owned GECAS will receive USD 24 bn in cash from AerCap along with USD 111.5 m newly issued AerCap shares and USD 1 bn AerCap notes/cash. With diverse geographical distributions and varying customer base and asset type exposures, what impact will a leasing giant in control of almost 14% of the entire fleet have on the aviation sector and rival lessors?

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

記事A fleet of aeroplanes詳細をご覧ください

Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

China’s Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

記事Domestic plane travelling over new year詳細をご覧ください

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

2021年の主な航空業界のテーマ:どこにポジティブな兆候が見られるか

記事Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism詳細をご覧ください

IBAの最高収益責任者であるStuart Hatcher博士は、2021年の見通しにおいて、2021年の路線、取引、資産価値、航空会社の倒産に関するIBAの意見を共有しています。 「2020年が終わった今、私たちは2021年以降にポジティブになれる兆候があるのかどうかに目を向けることができます。  長く時間のかかる予防接種プロセスが進行中で、これは前向きな進展ですが、現実的にいつになったら現在の市場における深刻な状況が緩和され始めると予測できるでしょうか？」

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

記事What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?詳細をご覧ください

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

記事US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity詳細をご覧ください

Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.  

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?

記事How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?詳細をご覧ください

The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.  

What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?

記事What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?詳細をご覧ください

As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

記事Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?詳細をご覧ください

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity

記事Covid-19’s Impact On Sale And Leaseback Activity詳細をご覧ください

Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

記事High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021詳細をご覧ください

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?

記事Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?詳細をご覧ください

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

記事Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?詳細をご覧ください

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

記事Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe詳細をご覧ください

It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

記事Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?詳細をご覧ください

There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

記事Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.詳細をご覧ください

In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020.   The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak.   In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic.   In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021.   IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era.   In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years.   Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis.   While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog.   Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain.   Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog.   Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s.   In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future.     Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions.   In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June.     The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter.   Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers.   Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed.   The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

記事Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted詳細をご覧ください

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020

記事China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020詳細をご覧ください

According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

記事What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020詳細をご覧ください

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

No break in the financial storm clouds for Interjet. April 2020

記事No break in the financial storm clouds for Interjet. April 2020詳細をご覧ください

The end of Q1 2020 saw claims emerging that several lessors had repossessed aircraft from Interjet. Sources indicate the repossession of at least 27 Airbus A320ceo and A320neo family aircraft from various lessors between March 24th and April 1st, with a further 20+ aircraft repossessed/returned to lessors from April 2nd to date. The ongoing Covid-19 situation is unprecedented, and no doubt plays a role in Interjet's difficulties. However, with lessors broadly agreeing payment deferrals with troubled airlines, these repossessions hint at ongoing, underlying problems at the airline.

Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020

記事Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020

記事The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

Coronavirus (also referred to as Covid-19) has placed us in totally unprecedented territory; its effects are not localised or industry-specific but touch all aspects of our lives. Government interventions to protect businesses and society will be considerably more widespread than in previous downturn-triggering events, so what happens next is not necessarily what we would ‘normally' predict.

IBA assesses the repercussions facing the aviation finance sector due to Covid-19, March 2020

記事IBA assesses the repercussions facing the aviation finance sector due to Covid-19, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

Stuart Hatcher, IBA's COO, says the impact of Covid-19 on airline and lessor finances will lead to a decline in aircraft values of over 10% for newer aircraft types and up to 30% for older aircraft in the short term.

European ACMI/ Wet-Lease Market - Short-Term Difficulties, But Long-Term Growth Forecasted, March 2020

記事European ACMI/ Wet-Lease Market - Short-Term Difficulties, But Long-Term Growth Forecasted, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

The European ACMI (aircraft. crew, maintenance, insurance)/wet-lease market fleet has grown with an average growth rate (AAGR) of 13.4% in the last five years. According to IBA.iQ, in 2019 the market recorded the highest ever number of wet-lease transactions and year-on-year growth. The number of aircraft servicing the European ACMI market has also grown in tandem with European passengers and fleet growth, at a rate of 13% per annum ACMI operators' preference to lease mature aircraft presents a key opportunity for lessors and investors seeking to place aircraft coming off its 2nd/3rd lease.

What Is The Remarketing Potential Of Assets Under Flybe's Operation? March 2020

記事What Is The Remarketing Potential Of Assets Under Flybe's Operation? March 2020詳細をご覧ください

Using IBA.iQ Fleets, at the time of Flybe's collapse, the carrier's fleet was comprised of a combination of De Havilland DHC8-400Q and Embraer E-Jet aircraft, totalling 68. The majority of the Flybe fleet consisted of DHC8 aircraft. With 54 such aircraft, Flybe was the largest active operator of the DHC8-400, accounting for almost 10% of the world in-service fleet. The parked and stored fleet of DHC8-400s has more than doubled as a result of the collapse of Flybe.

IBA's A330 Market Outlook, February 2020

記事IBA's A330 Market Outlook, February 2020詳細をご覧ください

The result of 27 airlines ceasing or suspending operations in 2019 has been an increased supply of aircraft into the secondary market. The storage level of widebody commercial aircraft surpassed that of widebody and narrowbody aircraft combined since 2014 (excluding the Boeing Max in 2019). Additionally the number of parked and stored Airbus A330s, comprising both Airbus A330- 200 and A330-300 models, reached 161 in January 2020, representing a 13% storage level. As a result of this oversupply, lease rates and market values have been suppressed. However, the current low lease rates of A330s may open more opportunities for the low-cost long-haul carriers.

Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020

記事Have operating lease agreements evolved with the industry? February 2020詳細をご覧ください

Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.

How Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact The Aviation Industry? February 2020

記事How Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact The Aviation Industry? February 2020詳細をご覧ください

In early 2020, a previously unknown coronavirus struck Wuhan, capital of Hubei province and the most populated city in Central China with over 11 million inhabitants. Now known as Covid-19, the virus has spread rapidly across China and international travellers have taken it around the world. The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China to date disclosed that in China 70,640 people have been infected with 1,772 dead. The virus has yet to be contained and numbers are therefore still climbing.

Analysis of Air Italy and AtlasGlobal, February 2020

記事Analysis of Air Italy and AtlasGlobal, February 2020詳細をご覧ください

Air Italy ceased operations on February 11th, following the shareholders' decision to liquidate the airline. Air Italy's cessation of operations appears to have been driven by Alisarda Group's (owned by the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development) desire to exit the investment given the carrier's deepening financial woes, with revenue trending lower and losses increasing. It appears Qatar Airways was prepared to inject more capital, however Alisarda Group wasn't prepared to commit further funds in light of "persistent negative market and industry conditions".

IBA Identifies Key Aviation Themes for 2020

記事IBA Identifies Key Aviation Themes for 2020詳細をご覧ください

IBA Report: issued January 2020 by Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Operating Officer - Managing Director Aviation

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

記事IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019詳細をご覧ください

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

IBA's Thoughts on the Suspension of 737 MAX Production December 2019

記事IBA's Thoughts on the Suspension of 737 MAX Production December 2019詳細をご覧ください

With the news of Boeing's decision to halt production of the 737 MAX from January, IBA's Stuart Hatcher, COO - MD Aviation, shares his thoughts from an Appraisers perspective.

Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019

記事Historical Lease Rate Performance - A320ceo v 737-800. December 2019詳細をご覧ください

Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:

A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019

記事A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019詳細をご覧ください

Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.

Pickle Fork Remedial Work Could Cost $275,000 per aircraft, October 2019

記事Pickle Fork Remedial Work Could Cost $275,000 per aircraft, October 2019詳細をご覧ください

We are being asked lots of questions about the recent Airworthiness Directive affecting Boeing 737NG variants -600, 700, 800, 900 and 900ER and the potential impact from the remedial works if the pickle forks are found to be cracked. It's been reported that numerous aircraft have been grounded following inspections that revealed cracks on the pickle fork, these aircraft will remain on the ground until either the work is done or depending on the age and value, they may be considered for other mid-life options.  

How is the economic useful life of aircraft changing? IBA Speaks to Aircraft Commerce

記事How is the economic useful life of aircraft changing? IBA Speaks to Aircraft Commerce詳細をご覧ください

Written by Aircraft Commerce Issue no. 123 published May 2019   Technological developments generally diminish the economic appeal of older aircraft. Low cost of funds has enhanced the case for new aircraft. Are low financing costs sustainable beyond the short-term, and do new generation types have a big enough advantage over legacy aircraft? Depending on the point of view, there have been four or five generations of narrowbody and widebody jetliner aircraft. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have focused on reducing aircraft fuel burn and the maintenance burden for each generation to provide airline operators with a reduction in total operating costs, and cost per available seatmile (ASM).

IBA's Review of the Korean Aviation Market August 2019

記事IBA's Review of the Korean Aviation Market August 2019詳細をご覧ください

In this comprehensive report our analysts take a deep dive into the commercial aviation industry in South Korea, sharing our insight on market growth, fleet dynamics, Asiana Airline troubles and Korean investment in aviation.

What does the future hold for the A380? August 2019

記事What does the future hold for the A380? August 2019詳細をご覧ください

This year, Airbus announced that Airbus A380 production will cease in 2021. There are 12 Airbus A380-800 orders remaining to be fulfilled, of which 11 aircraft are for lead operator Emirates and one aircraft is for All Nippon Airways. IBA is aware that several operators have announced their future plans for the Airbus A380 and it appears that there will be a number of fleet exits over the next 3 to 10 years.

Will the 737 MAX Base Value Change?

記事Will the 737 MAX Base Value Change?詳細をご覧ください

Investors should remain confident in the 737 MAX Base Values and be prepared to play the long game

IBA Analyses the potential impacts of the Mitsubishi-Bombardier CRJ deal

記事IBA Analyses the potential impacts of the Mitsubishi-Bombardier CRJ deal詳細をご覧ください

IBA Group sees the Mitsubishi-Bombardier CRJ deal as a real positive for the SpaceJet program. This will see Mitsubishi taking over Bombardier's sales, maintenance, support and marketing functions. In IBA's view, strengthening MITAC's capabilities in support, sales and marketing will have real benefits in securing further orders and increasing investor confidence in the aircraft.

IBA's A330 Market Outlook, May 2019

記事IBA's A330 Market Outlook, May 2019詳細をご覧ください

The current Airbus A330 market is characterised by relatively high levels of storage and availability, which are contributing to pressure on current market values and lease rates. At the time of writing, the parked and stored fleet across the two Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 models is around 88 units.

The Direct Cost Of Grounding The Boeing 737 MAX 8 Fleet

記事The Direct Cost Of Grounding The Boeing 737 MAX 8 Fleet詳細をご覧ください

For Airlines, the direct cost of grounding the 737 MAX 8/9 Fleet will be in the region of 150,000USD per day per aircraft grounding. IBA takes a look at the impact and which airlines will be hit the hardest.

What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?

記事What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?詳細をご覧ください

IBA Report: issued March 2019   Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA

記事IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA詳細をご覧ください

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

IBA Identifies Key Aviation Themes for 2019

記事IBA Identifies Key Aviation Themes for 2019詳細をご覧ください

IBA Report: issued January 2019 by Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Operating Officer

IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar, January 2019

記事IBA's Aviation Market Update Webinar, January 2019詳細をご覧ください

IBA Group, the award winning aviation consultancy, recently hosted a Market Update Webinar that offered independent analysis and insight on current trends, developments and key market indicators.

A Closer Look At The 777-300ER, December 2018

記事A Closer Look At The 777-300ER, December 2018詳細をご覧ください

Recently qualified as a Senior ISTAT appraiser, Mike Yeomans, IBA's Head of Valuations takes a closer look at the 777-300ER. Whether you are an existing owner or a potential investor, this analysis overview looks at how this aircraft is performing in the market, possible remarketing opportunities and what to expect over the next year and into 2020.

旅客機から輸送機へ交換

A New Era of Widebody Freighters

記事A New Era of Widebody Freighters詳細をご覧ください

For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

記事What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?詳細をご覧ください

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family. 

IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019

記事IBA's Freighter Market Outlook, November 2019詳細をご覧ください

Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.

What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?

記事What Will The Narrowbody Freighter Landscape Look Like In 2037?詳細をご覧ください

IBA Report: issued March 2019   Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.

IBA's Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019

記事IBA's Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019詳細をご覧ください

Freighter Conversions - capitalising on the resurgence in demand Freight volumes are continuing to trend on an upward trajectory and at a solid rate when compared to historical data. It should be noted however, that due to the inventory restocking cycle having concluded and manufacturing export orders remaining low, demand factors are lacking when compared to 2017. This paper looks at the current and future freighter market, production, routes into the market and takes a close look at a B737 conversion.

IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018

記事IBA's Investing In P2F Webinar, May 2018詳細をご覧ください

With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.

IBA Foresee 1000 P2F Conversions Being Required In The Next 17 years

記事IBA Foresee 1000 P2F Conversions Being Required In The Next 17 years詳細をご覧ください

According to IATA's March 2018 Freight Analysis report, global freight volumes slowed to a 22-month low, 1.7% year-on-year in March. This outcome represents the slowest pace of annual growth since the early part of 2016. The decline in growth can predominantly be attributed to the end of the restocking cycle which was one of the drivers behind the high growth figures. IATA have cautioned against reading too much into the most recent figures and expects growth of 4-5% overall for 2018.

IBA Contributes to an Aircargonews Article on Freighter Conversions, October 2017

記事IBA Contributes to an Aircargonews Article on Freighter Conversions, October 2017詳細をご覧ください

Passenger to freighter conversions will form a sizeable tranche of the ‘new' main deck metal entering the market over the next 20 years, according to airframers Boeing and Airbus.

環境

Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors

記事Carbon Emissions Calculator: Opportunities for Lessors詳細をご覧ください

There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees.   IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate.   1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC).   Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)   Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC   Read the full case study here   Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study:   Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR.   All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ.   If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo

IBA's Aviation And The Environment, February 2021

記事IBA's Aviation And The Environment, February 2021詳細をご覧ください

In response to widespread demand, IBA’s Tim Boon delivers an update on sustainable aviation finance and green initiatives for 2021. This popular report provides the latest on ESG regulation and compliance, green financing initiative and new developments in SAF and OEM advances.

What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?

記事What Will Fuel Aviation’s Green Future?詳細をご覧ください

As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.

The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19

記事The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19詳細をご覧ください

ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.

IBA's Environment and Aircraft Finance Roundtable Lunch, 2nd March 2020

記事IBA's Environment and Aircraft Finance Roundtable Lunch, 2nd March 2020詳細をご覧ください

The environment is a core issue for the aviation industry to manage and to ensure investors remain attracted to our industry to deliver sustainable growth. This roundtable session drew on the experience of key industry stakeholders to share current and future plans to address this challenge.

IBA's Aviation And The Environment Whitepaper, February 2020

記事IBA's Aviation And The Environment Whitepaper, February 2020詳細をご覧ください

Aviation generates 2-3% of global CO₂ emissions and, if business continues as usual, is on course to produce double these emissions by 2037 when IATA predicts 8.2 billion annual air travellers. As a result, the industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its contribution to global warming and decarbonise operations in a bid to offset passenger growth. Sustainability and aviation's impact on the environment are significant issues facing the industry over the coming years, subjects which will be at the forefront of investment and business opportunities. This report explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry.

A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019

記事A Sustainable Future For Aviation, December 2019詳細をご覧ください

Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.

コロナウイルス

Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

記事Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions詳細をご覧ください

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots

記事Airport Landing Slot Values; Heathrow Pre- and Post-Covid and the Battle for Airport Slots詳細をご覧ください

Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values.   This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values.   IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK.   In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016.   In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report 

日本の航空市場の進化する構造

記事The Evolving Structure of Japan’s Aviation Market詳細をご覧ください

概要 日本の就役航空機フリートの19％は、駐機または保管機である。 日本の航空会社による航空機の利用率は、世界的な傾向と同様に、まだコロナ禍以前のレベルまで回復していない。 しかし、日本の航空市場は堅調で、今後数年間でアジア太平洋地域の成長機会に恵まれる。 今後10年以内に大規模なフリートの置き換えが見込まれているが、Boeing 737 MAXの遅延により、その割合は不確実である。 2020年から2021年3月までの流通市場取引ではセール・アンド・リースバックが9件記録され、大部分を占めた。 JOLCOの取引量は昨年減少したが、新しい航空機需要が回復するにつれて同取引量も回復すると予想される。

Will The Embattled DHC8-400Q Fleet Survive Covid-19?

記事A fleet of aeroplanes詳細をご覧ください

Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?

China’s Strong Domestic Air Travel Has Stalled Over The Lunar New Year

記事Domestic plane travelling over new year詳細をご覧ください

InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.

Managing Your Aircraft Asset in a Lockdown Situation

記事Aviation Market Analysis詳細をご覧ください

The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.

2021年の主な航空業界のテーマ:どこにポジティブな兆候が見られるか

記事Key Aviation Themes For 2021: Where To Find Signs Of Optimism詳細をご覧ください

IBAの最高収益責任者であるStuart Hatcher博士は、2021年の見通しにおいて、2021年の路線、取引、資産価値、航空会社の倒産に関するIBAの意見を共有しています。 「2020年が終わった今、私たちは2021年以降にポジティブになれる兆候があるのかどうかに目を向けることができます。  長く時間のかかる予防接種プロセスが進行中で、これは前向きな進展ですが、現実的にいつになったら現在の市場における深刻な状況が緩和され始めると予測できるでしょうか？」

What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?

記事What Will Transatlantic Flights Look Like Post-Recovery?詳細をご覧ください

In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.   

US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity

記事US Airlines Record Strong Increase In Capacity詳細をご覧ください

Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.  

Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta

記事Aircraft Fleet Evolution - Lufthansa and Delta詳細をご覧ください

Using fleet data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, it’s possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.

What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?

記事What Are the Current Utilisation Levels for the 777 Family and Predicted Attrition?詳細をご覧ください

As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family. 

Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?

記事Will Blue Skies Greet Flybe’s Re-Emergence?詳細をご覧ください

Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.

High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021

記事High Aircraft Storage Levels Will Continue Throughout 2021詳細をご覧ください

The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.

Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?

記事Will a Covid-19 vaccine change what’s in store for the A380?詳細をご覧ください

The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

記事Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?詳細をご覧ください

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?

記事Is Capacity Growth Improving in Russia and China?詳細をご覧ください

Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.

Engine Shop Visit Demand

記事Man looking at engine詳細をご覧ください

Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.

Narrowbody Engine Market Performance

記事Wing of plane mid flight詳細をご覧ください

When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

記事Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?詳細をご覧ください

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)

記事Preparing Stored Aircraft For Return To Service (RTS)詳細をご覧ください

The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.

Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe

記事Covid-19: The Impact on Airline Traffic to Mainland Europe詳細をご覧ください

It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.

Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)

記事Preparing the 737 MAX for its return to service (RTS)詳細をご覧ください

The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.

Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?

記事Economic Crises and Average Aircraft Downtime Between Lease End Events and Placements; Can the Industry Maintain Downtime's Falling Trend During and After Covid-19?詳細をご覧ください

In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.

Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?

記事Utilisation Changes in the Emirates Fleet - Does This Signify the Demise of the A380?詳細をご覧ください

There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?

Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.

記事Positive Outlook for Boeing's 777X: Post-Pandemic Optimism Surrounds Twin-Engine Widebodies.詳細をご覧ください

In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020.   The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak.   In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic.   In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021.   IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era.   In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years.   Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis.   While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog.   Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain.   Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog.   Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s.   In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future.     Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions.   In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June.     The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter.   Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers.   Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed.   The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

記事Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted詳細をご覧ください

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19

記事The Environmental Exit Plan After Covid-19詳細をご覧ください

ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.

How have the dynamics of the leasing market changed since Covid-19?

記事How have the dynamics of the leasing market changed since Covid-19?詳細をご覧ください

Pre-Covid, aircraft operating leasing was a very competitive space, capital having been flooding into the market over several years. Low interest rates drove increased interest in aircraft on operating leases as an investment class and we saw new players entering the market from Korea and, in particular, China. Many entities arose through joint ventures with existing European and North American lessors and via portfolio acquisitions.    

Slashed Revenues and Job Losses in the time of Covid-19: How are Governments Supporting the Aviation Industry?

記事Slashed Revenues and Job Losses in the time of Covid-19: How are Governments Supporting the Aviation Industry?詳細をご覧ください

In this short article, IBA's advisory team uses current IATA data together with its own Covid-19 research to spotlight the pandemic's global influence on aviation industry jobs, revenues and capacity and details the extent of government support for some airlines.

Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020

記事Covid-19 Drives Aircraft Oversupply And Reductions In Airline Fleet Sizes, May 2020詳細をご覧ください

As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly.   In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.

Will Covid-19 force South Korea's oversaturated aviation market to consolidate? May 2020

記事Will Covid-19 force South Korea's oversaturated aviation market to consolidate? May 2020詳細をご覧ください

According to data published by IATA, the outbreak of Covid-19 could result in a 22% drop in passenger volume and a USD 4.4B, ~KRW (South Korean won) 5.4T loss, in passenger base revenue for the Korean air transport market this year. Further effects will inevitably be felt through the whole economy, potentially leading to the loss of around 160,000 jobs and a USD 9B (~KRW 11T) hit to GDP. IATA members have urged the Korean government to urgently extend direct financial support, loan guarantees, support for corporate bond issuance and tax relief to airlines.

China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020

記事China's Grounded Aircraft Slowly Begin To Take Off. April 2020詳細をご覧ください

According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.

What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020

記事What Percentage of Aircraft Within ABS Structures Are Inactive? April 2020詳細をご覧ください

ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation?   Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average.   As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs.   This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.

Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020

記事Which airlines are braced for a safe landing after Covid-19's turbulence? March 2020詳細をご覧ください

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020

記事Covid-19 Forces easyJet Fleet Out Of The Skies, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.

The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020

記事The State of the Aviation Market and the Coronavirus Crisis, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

Coronavirus (also referred to as Covid-19) has placed us in totally unprecedented territory; its effects are not localised or industry-specific but touch all aspects of our lives. Government interventions to protect businesses and society will be considerably more widespread than in previous downturn-triggering events, so what happens next is not necessarily what we would ‘normally' predict.

Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?

記事Will Covid-19 and Oil Price Cuts Send the Helicopter Market into a Spin?詳細をご覧ください

The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.

IBA assesses the repercussions facing the aviation finance sector due to Covid-19, March 2020

記事IBA assesses the repercussions facing the aviation finance sector due to Covid-19, March 2020詳細をご覧ください

Stuart Hatcher, IBA's COO, says the impact of Covid-19 on airline and lessor finances will lead to a decline in aircraft values of over 10% for newer aircraft types and up to 30% for older aircraft in the short term.

How Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact The Aviation Industry? February 2020

記事How Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact The Aviation Industry? February 2020詳細をご覧ください

In early 2020, a previously unknown coronavirus struck Wuhan, capital of Hubei province and the most populated city in Central China with over 11 million inhabitants. Now known as Covid-19, the virus has spread rapidly across China and international travellers have taken it around the world. The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China to date disclosed that in China 70,640 people have been infected with 1,772 dead. The virus has yet to be contained and numbers are therefore still climbing.

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What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?

記事What is the Future of Korean Aviation Post Covid and is There the Potential of a Monopoly Mega Airline?詳細をご覧ください

2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis.  In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.

How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?

記事How Will Enduring Flight Restrictions Cloud Performance Of Wizz Air’s Planned Schedule?詳細をご覧ください

The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.  

Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?

記事Failure Rates For Airlines Has Remained Flat To The End Of October But What Does The Future Hold?詳細をご覧ください

Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.

Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?

記事Will Government Support Stave Off Second Wave Operator Casualties?詳細をご覧ください

Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.

Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted

記事Q3 of 2020 Will Bring More Airline Failures Once Lifelines and Cash Reserves are Depleted詳細をご覧ください

Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates.   For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.

IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019

記事IBA's Operator Risk Assessment - Aerolineas Argentinas December 2019詳細をご覧ください

Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.

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Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions

記事Sandstorm Fails to Blow China’s Post-Covid Recovery Off Course: But Aviation Manufacturers Must Develop Equipment More Resistant to Harsh Conditions詳細をご覧ください

Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.

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