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InsightIQ
Flight data from IBA’s InsightIQ aviation intelligence platform shows that from the end of June 2019 to the end of 2021, domestic flights have dropped below 80% of the total for the first time since last summer.
As China plans to begin flight testing on the Boeing 737 Max, we analyse the potential impact on the market and competition with the A320 NEO.
As JetBlue completes its first test flight from New York to London Heathrow using its new Airbus A321LR, we use fleets, flights and orders data from InsightIQ to look at JetBlue and the state of play on the London - New York market.
Covid-19 has dealt a significant blow to air travel demand in Europe, and the emergence of multiple variants and the relatively slow vaccination rollout have exacerbated the market’s struggles.
While it is becoming clear that the post-pandemic market is providing an opportunity, are global crises in general a breeding ground for brave and bold start-ups?
Intelligence from IBA’s InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator has identified a significant drop in Lufthansa’s Carbon footprint, driven by an aircraft evolution strategy across the passenger fleet.
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines saw the majority (and in some cases all) of their passenger fleets grounded as various lockdowns came into force around world.
Norwegian airline Flyr officially started operations in June 2021, with a domestic network setup to operate from Oslo Gardermoen Airport (OSL). Flyr intends to operate using the low-cost carrier business model, with a demand driven business model.
Aircraft lease rates for new delivery narrowbody models have continued to slip, but some causes for optimism exist. We used IBA's InsightIQ trends data to highlight some positives.
Demand for U.S air travel is increasingly encouraging. Numbers of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints on 13th June 2021 surpassed 2 million for the first time since early March 2020.
As well the vital role it continues to play in supporting the global economy, the air cargo market is now becoming increasingly important in powering global COVID vaccine distribution.
Using unique data from IBA’s InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator, we analysed EasyJet flights between London Gatwick Airport and Tenerife South Airport.
Stobart Air ceased operations on Saturday 12th June 2021. A regional carrier operating flights across the UK and Ireland, the Stobart Air fleet consisted of 12 ATR72-600 aircraft and one ATR42-600 aircraft according to data from IBA’s InsightIQ platform.
General Electric and Safran Group are to collaborate on development of a viable open rotor engine, ‘RISE’, destined to power narrowbody aircraft by the mid-2030’s. The joint venture between the US and French aero engine giants intends to make workable a concept first touted in the 1970s. The open rotor engine dispenses with the traditional pod housing the fan blades seen on high bypass turbofan engines.
The last year has, even for the aviation industry, been very unusual; traumatic, in fact, for some businesses. The number of high-profile insolvencies at a time of very low demand for aircraft has given rise to a situation where the usual recourse available to lessors, that is repossession of aircraft and then re-leasing or selling the asset, is not available. As IBA reported in October 2020, this environment has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of PBH arrangements being negotiated as an alternative to repossession by lessors and/or rejection or abandonment by airlines. Will the demand for PBH deals persist as the aviation market recovers?
In anticipation of IBA’s forthcoming July Mid-Year Aircraft Values Update Webinar, we have been looking ahead at some key aviation industry trends to expect in aircraft valuations. Though many will not see base value adjustments for many aircraft asset types, we are forecasting further market value softening in 2021 for some.
The historic correlation between high oil prices and airline failures is a proven trend. Combined with Coronavirus, they represent a clear and present danger to airlines.
Data from IBA’s InsightIQ platform has revealed strong regional variations in flight data and recovery of load factors.
Tim Boon, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ Carbon Emissions Calculator to explore British Airways’s LAX-LHR route and how new gen aircraft and sustainable aviation fuel could impact carbon emission efficiencies.
Denesz Thiyagarajan, Engine Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact of weather conditions in Northern China on Engine performance and utilisation.
There are various strategies lessors can adopt to reduce their fleets’ carbon emissions and, in doing so, potentially benefit from lower financing costs, strengthen their investor relations’ story and develop a greater competitive advantage with lessees. IBA outlines two key strategies: purchasing new technology planes with lower emissions levels and committing to offsetting a proportion of the emissions their lessees generate. 1. Buying new technology planes with lower emissions Airframe and engine OEMs are working on many initiatives that will improve technology and produce more efficient and potentially carbon free aircraft, but this is evidently a longer-term proposal. In the medium term, buying new gen technology planes will potentially provide a good investor relations story, fit with many airlines long term strategies and also potentially provide a ‘Greenium’ benefit, with access to lower cost finance. 2. Offsetting proportions of carbon emissions generated by the lessee There are three offsetting options, the impact of which can be calculated using rich intelligence from the InsightIQ platform and newly launched Carbon Emissions Calculator (CEC). Voluntary offset schemes at $3/tonne High quality offset schemes at $13/tonne Buying and holding emissions allowances from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Source: IBA InsightIQ CEC Read the full case study here Based on calculations and analysis from InsightIQ CEC, we conclude that buying and holding Emissions Allowances from the EU ETS may be the most efficient carbon reduction strategy for lessors. Although upfront costs are higher, buying emissions allowances at the start of a lease and holding them until lease end is an investment. Current market expectation is that these assets will appreciate in value by 70% - 75% by 2030. Investors will therefore have an opportunity to profit from their re-sale at lease end. Emissions trading also enjoys high environmental integrity as a regulated market. To understand the maths behind this conclusion, we have created the following Case Study: Case study- Airbus A321 neo (Non-ACF/ACTs) with LEAP-1A33 Engine A lessor can commit to offset emissions as a competitive differentiator in a bid to win a lessee. Using the example of a new A321neo narrowbody bought in April 2021 for US$ 56M and offered on a 12-year notional US$ 360K monthly rental, its residual asset value will be US$ 35M at lease end. We can mine the emissions information our CEC generates to calculate the following CO2 outcomes to calculate the offset costs and impact on IRR. All Data used and displayed in this article is derived from IBA’s proprietary data platform IBA InsightIQ. If you have any further questions or comments please contact: Ian Beaumont Sign up for a demo
Geoffroy Robin Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory and Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ fleet and flights data to share a detailed view of HNA's current exposure and explore what the restructuring process could mean for lessors.
ルイス・レスリー シニアーアビエーションアナリスト IBA 鑑定士は、日本のアビエーション市場を探究するために、Insight IQフリートと評価インテリジェンスを使っています。 概要 日本の就役航空機フリートの19％は、駐機または保管機である。 日本の航空会社による航空機の利用率は、世界的な傾向と同様に、まだコロナ禍以前のレベルまで回復していない。 しかし、日本の航空市場は堅調で、今後数年間でアジア太平洋地域の成長機会に恵まれる。 今後10年以内に大規模なフリートの置き換えが見込まれているが、Boeing 737 MAXの遅延により、その割合は不確実である。 2020年から2021年3月までの流通市場取引ではセール・アンド・リースバックが9件記録され、大部分を占めた。 JOLCOの取引量は昨年減少したが、新しい航空機需要が回復するにつれて同取引量も回復すると予想される。
2021 started weakly for the Korean aviation market, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in January were 72% lower than the same month in 2019 according to IATA and our own InsightIQ Flights analysis. In this detailed report, Finlay Grogan, IBA airlines analyst, uses InsightIQ data to research and evaluate Korean airline performance, including financial reviews, fleet structures, utilisation levels, carbon emissions and future performance and consolidations.
Jie Zhou, Senior Aviation Analyst, IBA Advisory, uses InsightIQ intelligence to explore the potential impact for aircraft leasing following the announcement of AerCap’s intention to acquire GECAS. AerCap’s announcement on 10th March 2021 of its intended acquisition of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) will, if approved, give it a 54% holding of a superpower lessor which owns and manages an in-service fleet approaching 2,100 aircraft, has an order backlog of more than 500 units and an aggregate customer base of nearly 300 operators. As announced by both parties, General Electric-owned GECAS will receive USD 24 bn in cash from AerCap along with USD 111.5 m newly issued AerCap shares and USD 1 bn AerCap notes/cash. With diverse geographical distributions and varying customer base and asset type exposures, what impact will a leasing giant in control of almost 14% of the entire fleet have on the aviation sector and rival lessors?
Geoffroy Robin, an aviation analyst at IBA advisory, looks back at the historic performance of the DHC8-4000 fleet and how the programme has been challenged in more recent times. What does the future hold for this Canadian built aircraft?
In response to the uncontained engine failure of a United Airline Boeing 777-200 flight from Denver to Honolulu on the 20th February, IBA’s analyst Geoffroy Robin uses InsightIQ Fleet and Flight data to consider the short and long term impact for the Fleet.
InsightIQ data revealed China has experienced a drop in domestic air travel in the fifteen-day period prior to the Lunar New Year compared to the same period in 2020. Following the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in early January, new travel restrictions and subsequent lower demand for domestic travel have meant deep capacity cuts from local airlines.
IBAの最高収益責任者であるStuart Hatcher博士は、2021年の見通しにおいて、2021年の路線、取引、資産価値、航空会社の倒産に関するIBAの意見を共有しています。 「2020年が終わった今、私たちは2021年以降にポジティブになれる兆候があるのかどうかに目を向けることができます。 長く時間のかかる予防接種プロセスが進行中で、これは前向きな進展ですが、現実的にいつになったら現在の市場における深刻な状況が緩和され始めると予測できるでしょうか？」
In mid-January 2021, Norwegian announced it will refocus its operations on European routes and cease long-haul operations as part of its plans to exit the insolvency court. Ever since it started servicing routes between Europe and the United States with its fleet of 32 Boeing 787s, the airline became known for offering customers the opportunity to travel on modern and fuel-efficient aircraft very cheaply.
Using data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can research and analyse flight data to show changing trends in capacity across regions, operators, city pairs and by aircraft type.
Using fleet data from IBA’s intelligence platform InsightIQ, it’s possible to review how airline fleets are evolving and changing over time. Using Lufthansa and Delta as examples, our analysts explore and illustrate the size of the in-service fleet in January 2020 compared to 2021.
As you will be aware, the withdrawal of passenger capacity from the market has driven extraordinary demand for dedicated freighters. Some passenger aircraft have been temporarily converted and freight movements have strengthened. Using flight data from IBA’s Intelligence platform InsightIQ, we can illustrate the utilisation of the 777 Boeing Family.
An aircraft or engine approaching its operational twilight years tends to require closer condition monitoring and increased maintenance investment. For many years, one option lessors and operators have used to achieve a good return on their asset is to part out the aircraft or engine for feedstock or to sell them into the aftermarket. Engines with little green time remaining are typically the best option for teardown.
The pandemic’s disruption of planned airline operations has returned in recent weeks, a number of countries in Western Europe entering their second lockdown of the year. In this short piece, we leverage Flight data from IBA’s powerful new intelligence platform, InsightIQ, to examine the extent to which Wizz Air (UK & Hungary) has fulfilled its published schedule.
Flybe was one of the earliest airline victims of the Coronavirus pandemic, ceasing commercial operations in March 2020. With recent news of a potential revival, IBA explores the former Flybe fleet in terms of redeployment, asset value and the status of the restart.
Since the outbreak of Covid-19, sale and leaseback (SLB) activity has shifted towards the stronger credit, higher tier carriers including larger low-cost carriers and flag carriers or major airlines.
The shocking outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 initiated events that would rock the commercial aviation industry and guarantee the restructuring of even the largest airlines.
The Airbus A380 is one of the aircraft types worst affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, 87% of the fleet currently parked or stored according to InsightIQ, IBA’s online intelligence platform. The following chart illustrates the A380’s present fleet status:
Using InsightIQ’s analytics, in this analysis we have focused on airlines with aircraft having more than 25 seats and the primary concern is with fixed costs. A combination of cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid is being used for survival. Inevitably, as the crisis persists, the ability to repay debt becomes more remote.
Over the last 12 months, passenger flights experienced some resurgence as we approached the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. Many people managed to get a summer holiday and the freight market remained solid.
Recent news reports have suggested the MAX is expected to return by the year end but we believe a more realistic and meaningful return will happen by the second quarter of 2021. It will take time for aircraft built and now in storage to undergo necessary modifications, for staff to be trained and for all regulatory considerations to be addressed.
What are PBH lease rates and are they a good thing? The origins of PBH are from the 1960’s when Rolls Royce leased engines by the hour to airlines. Aircraft leasing PBH has appeared before, more often for a short term if an airline was subject to seasonal fluctuations in traffic. Forward 60 years and PBH agreements are trending once again with more and more airlines seeking additional support from lessors. This short article looks at both the benefits and the shortcomings of the PBH revival.
Pre-Covid, IBA forecast strong growth across the entire aftermarket: narrowbodies, widebodies and regional aircraft. There was an expanding fleet, heightened utilisation and increased demand for shop visits. The situation has evidently altered enormously and the most vulnerable assets, mature widebodies, will be the first to be withdrawn from shop visits.
When it comes to recovery, the short haul market will be first and there are some positive signs, many engines re-entering service in North America, Europe and Asia. However, despite increased flight volumes and resultant higher engine utilisation, load factors remain low. Border restrictions persist across all regions and passenger confidence to travel continues to challenge.
Using IBA's Operator Score for a sample of operators, we spotlight COVID-19's influence on the aviation industry and analyse government support for airlines as a proportion of their net profit, comprehensive margin and cash position. Below, IBA shares its opinion on government intervention to help airlines overcome the risks associated with COVID-19's downturn.
購買後市場と部品
This month Adil Slimani, IBA’s Head of Aftermarket Advisory shares his opinion on Covid and material Fair Market Values. ‘Unprecedented’ and ‘Covid’ have become synonymous with 2020 and the pandemic’s tragic human cost has been the gravest many have experienced in generations. Numerous industries have also suffered and aviation has been one of the worst hit. Every step of the supply chain from financing, manufacturing, operation, maintenance and recycling has had to adapt to survive and, fundamentally, there are several market forces that have yet to play out. Here I’ll try to share some insight into the causes and effects of a reduction in aircraft material fair market values (FMV). For many entities, common strategies to protect capital, be they mothballing fleets, leveraging assets or furloughing staff have largely been played out and restructuring is underway. Various support mechanisms adopted by stakeholders such as renegotiating lease rates, payment holidays and deferred aircraft deliveries or redeliveries have enabled operations to continue at minimal levels and undoubtedly been a lifeline.
価値
Senior Aviation Analyst Youcef Berour Minarro investigates the airport slot market, the impact of Covid-19 at London Heathrow, and the outlook for future slot values. This paper has been prepared to give an overview and insight into the current airport slot market, with specific emphasis on LHR as one of the most traded airports in the world. This article will review the impact COVID has had on LHR and what the IATA slot waiver extensions mean for slot values. IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations having completed a variety of assignments at airports including London LHR, London Gatwick and New York JFK. In 2015, IBA was involved in Europe’s first ever bond tied to airport slots where Virgin Atlantic Airways secured a £220 million secured note transaction using the airline’s take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport. The bond was used to invest in new Boeing 787-9 aircraft. The bond had a tenor of 15 years. The notes were split between two tranches: £190 million A1 notes and £30 million A2 notes. The A1 notes have a weighted average life of 12 years, while the A2 notes have a weighted average life of 10 years. This was the first time in European air travel history that airport slots have been leveraged in this way, claiming the Deal of the Year in 2016. In 2020 alone, IBA have been heavily involved in performing a range of valuations for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots. Download the full report
ABS Portfolios - What is the Current Level of Fleet Utilisation? Using IBA.iQ Fleets, IBA's award-winning advisory team show that over 60% of aircraft within ABS structures (launched after 2015), are either parked or stored. In comparison, 52% of the global passenger fleet is inactive, indicating that aircraft within current ABS portfolios are less active than the global fleet average. As a result, IBA expects to see cashflow pressures within aircraft ABS structures as operators seek rental payment holidays and groundings cause uncertainty in the level of unplanned maintenance costs. This uncertainty has the potential to cause defaults in ABS structures in the medium term (six to 12 months from now) once the impact of holiday rentals, early returns and the total cost of unplanned maintenance impacts overall liquidity.
The Covid-19 outbreak has imposed some of the most severe financial difficulties seen in over a decade on the aviation industry. The unprecedented travel restrictions imposed by governments globally to manage and alleviate the spread of the Covid-19 virus have resulted in airlines facing economic hardships, with many requiring government bail outs.
Buying aircraft, whether private or commercial, can be a complicated, time-consuming process with potential for plenty of twists, turns, pitfalls and surprises along the way. Thorough due diligence is crucial before purchasing decisions are made; the values involved mean errors can cost millions of dollars.
IBA are one of only a very few appraisers recognised for airport slot valuations, having completed a variety of assignments at airports including LHR and LGW. These valuations have been for various purposes including slots securitisations, balance sheet purposes and for disposal/acquisition of slots.
How do we approach our values? Our large team of engine and aircraft analysts and 6 ISTAT qualified appraiser's specialise in a broad range of aviation assets including commercial jets, engines, helicopters, business jets and landing slots. David Archer, IBA's Senior Engine analyst, talks through IBA's approach to engine valuations, why they are an attractive investment and what factors influence their value. Click here to listen to the short webcast. If you have further questions, comments or feedback please contact: David Archer
IBA's Engine Market Update was designed specifically around the business needs of Investors, Lessors, Operators and Financiers looking to explore the Engine market. IBA's David Archer, Senior Aviation Analyst and Gary Leung, Aviation Analyst, provided invaluable insight on how engine market values are performing, the level of engine order activity across single-aisle, twin-aisle, regional and turboprop markets and what trends and market growth indicators are apparent. They also gave an update on the A380 and had a look back at the 747.
With the recent 50th anniversary of the Concorde's maiden flight, IBA's Phil Seymour, CEO, discusses how aircraft appraisers would value Concorde today.
After a long period of stability and growth in the aviation industry the prospect of asset impairment is starting to rear its head, according to Phil Seymour, the CEO of IBA.
As you would expect, aircraft and engines that are well looked after, maintained and inspected regularly will inherently hold their value more than those that are less well managed. To protect and maximise the value of an aircraft or engine, inspections are an essential element of asset management. A thorough inspection should always include an examination of the metal and its associated technical records, since it is the combination of the physical condition and historical records that create the overall value.
With buoyant market lease rates and suitable feeder stock, interest in the cargo market continues to develop. IBA, the independent and award winning aviation consultancy looks at both the opportunities for investing and the vulnerabilities within the market. The session was a must for those considering converting fleet or looking to invest in the growth of air cargo. IBA's Jonathan McDonald, Head Analyst - Commercial & Ageing Aircraft added clarity on the shape of the market, lease rates and values, new entrants and players, the economics of conversions and the need for scrutiny.
There was a great deal of activity concerning aircraft lease portfolios during the first few months of 2018. IBA has been advising various investors, with a broad range of investment objectives, with surprising results. Whereas typically investors are seeking at least a 7% return, in some deals the returns were much leaner than anticipated, in others break-even was the optimistic outcome. Both market share and an eagerness to develop a relationship with a particular operator were highlighted as objectives in these cases. With such lean returns, one theme is common to all; robust due diligence (DD) ahead of purchase and a focus on expert ongoing servicing is essential to maximise the opportunity to realise target returns.
Engine performance is subject to a variety of factors, both on a fleet-wide and individual engine level. The technology on the new-generation engines is designed to maximise performance, while that early-service issues will influence a fleets' operational life. This can be via unscheduled shop visits or reduced dispatch reliability.
Throughout the history of aircraft leasing, various financing trends have come and gone while the industry has grown significantly to the current $126 billion forecasted of new delivery funding requirements for 2017.
In this session IBA partners with KPMG to present an accounting and commercial update, discussing depreciation, residual values and useful economic lives.
Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy for Avolon, published a challenging thought paper last year assessing aircraft appraisers. I want to respond to Dick's thoughts wearing two hats - as the CEO of IBA, a leading aviation consultancy with some 30 years' appraisal experience and data, and as the former chairman of the ISTAT International Appraisers' Program. The timing is right for three reasons - Dick makes many excellent points that need to be kept front of mind as our industry develops; 2017 will likely be the most volatile market for years making appraisal opinion even more important; and Dick and I will debate our respective positions at the AFJ conference in Dublin and this serves as a prelude.
所有権
IBA’s Phil Seymour investigates 3 key impacts that Covid-19 has had on the speed and efficiency of aircraft repossession and remarketing. This information was taken from IBA’s submission to the report ‘Aircraft Repossession Planning – Practical Considerations’ produced for Internal Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) 2021.
A complete and concise set of service records, properly identifying all required maintenance and modification events, is the indication of an aircraft's condition and the quality of its continuing airworthiness management. It clearly demonstrates the aircraft's compliance with all appropriate safety and lease requirements and its suitability for flight. Service records are essential if the aircraft is to be sold at its maintenance adjusted value or placed on lease with a new lessee.
As many of you will know, the effects of Covid-19 are going to change the size and makeup of airline fleets, and do so quickly. In the next 20 months, it's possible that many older aircraft types could be universally withdrawn from service, along with significant numbers of older variants of current generation aircraft including the Boeing 777, A330 and A380. IBA, the leading aviation consultancy, estimate there will be an aircraft oversupply of up to 2,500 narrow and widebody aircraft in the market, with global demand, once the current restrictions are lifted, possibly declining by 20% by the end of 2021.
IBA recently updated its analysis around overspend in relation to redeliveries. As the infographic on page 9 highlights, overspends have increased since 2016, with engine costs being the key driver.
エンジン
Rolls-Royce are to test all its civil aircraft engines currently in production to ensure their compatibility with 100%-sustainable aviation fuel by 2023.
For CFMI, it would appear that the impact of the 737 MAX grounding has not been detrimental to the LEAP-1B. There remains a strong market outlook for this engine and looking at the Base Value, Half Life, it is performing well and is on par with competing engines in the market. As illustrated in the chart below, there has been no impact on values.
Using the valuation tool InsightIQ, it considers the lease rate comparison of several A320 vintages and their respective engines. London/Dublin/Tokyo - October 3rd 2019: IBA, the independent aviation advisory, valuation and consulting firm has identified a growing trend in mature aircraft management where the leasing of core engine assets is managed separately to the aircraft as a whole. This is becoming increasingly evident based upon the strengths of the CFM-56-5/7B and V2500-A5 engines within the A320 and 737NG fleets.
IBA Report by David Archer, Senior Engine Analyst: issued September 2019 The grounding of the 737 MAX fleet has been one of the most widely discussed aviation events of recent history. Following two tragic accidents, the 737 MAX fleet remains grounded until the world's aviation authorities deem it fit for service. Speculation has inevitably turned to the impact on the market and the longer term ramifications for both the aircraft and the engines.
Determining the value of an engine at different phases of its life-cycle requires consideration of a variety of factors, particularly engine maintenance value and engine core value. Depending on the phase of the engine's life, options to the owner include repair or overhaul to put value back into the asset; or, alternatively, green-time sale, tear-down and part-out of used serviceable material in order to extract remaining value from the engine. Maintenance value accounts for the value of life-limited parts (LLPs) and the value associated with the on-wing time before requiring a performance restoration.
Our engine analysts have been investigating recent concerns of spare engine and parts shortages for three commonly traded engines, the V2500-A5, CFM56-7B and -5B. Our findings suggest that the engine lease market will not be able to support the 25-35% increase in shop visit rates forecast for CFM56-7B and -5B engines and continuing strong demand for V2500's in the period 2019-2024. There is currently very limited availability of spares and unless more spare engines are generated by retirements and aircraft teardowns, or airline held spare stock absorbs some of the demand, IBA expect engine inductions and longer TATs will create a log jam further intensified by the impact of compound shop visits i.e. first run, second run and third run overlapping.
Rather than invest large sums of money into the development of clean-sheet airframe designs, in recent years OEMs have elected to redesign, improve and re-engine already successful airframes for the next generation of aircraft. In many of these cases, the engine accounts for a significant proportion of the efficiency savings.
Aviation commentators have often remarked on the increasing presence of OEMs in the engine aftermarket. This is especially the case when it comes to engine maintenance, and the declining independent MRO solutions available. OEM maintenance contracts offer maintenance stability for operators, but can the widespread adoption of these affect resale values or leasing demands? Charlotte Daniels provides an assessment.
The 777 has long been established in its market of medium- and long-haul routes, as the world's largest twin engine commercial aircraft. The 777 entered service in 1995 via the 777-200, and now comprises five passenger series: the 777-200, -200ER, -200LR, -300, and -300ER. There is also a freighter version, the 777-200F. The 777 seats 310-390 passengers, depending on the series, and class configuration and layout of passenger accommodations (LOPA).
The fleet of in-service, passenger configured regional and narrowbody aircraft has increased by one-third over the past 10 years. This growing fleet will require used spare engines for various purposes, including the provision of cover for maintenance shop visits. Aircraft Commerce has analysed the regional and narrowbody used engine market to provide a summary of demand, value and lease rate trends.
ヘリコプター
Unlike the fixed wing market, helicopter utilisation appears to have stabilised and returned to near normal levels in some sectors. As the pandemic took hold earlier this year, we saw demand for helicopters impacted by travel restrictions preventing workers reaching offshore and wind facilities, and also by extremely low oil pricing. With restrictions easing mid-year, we have subsequently seen utilisation rates strengthening as delayed maintenance of wind turbines resumed and workers returning to offshore sites. With demand for medical air transportation also rising, we are seeing strong utilisations of helicopters across HEMS as a result. In summary, utilisation has stabilised, orders and transactions have reduced but as fewer units have come on the market, the value of limited stock has held better than expected. To review values of key commercial helicopters, download a copy of IBA’s Helicopter Values Guide 2020 using the link below. Helicopter Values Guide 2020
IBA's Alastair Fallon, Helicopter Aviation Analyst, joined the Helicopter Investor Town Hall Forum on Tuesday 9th June. Within the 60-minute session, the panel of industry experts assessed the health of the helicopter market and discussed how Covid-19 is affecting the different heli markets worldwide.
The WHO has declared the spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) a global pandemic and we are all bearing the brunt of an information overload from multiple sources via the media advising us how to live, work and travel. BA today announced it will cancel 75% of its flights with Easyjet grounding 100 of its 344 aircraft across Europe. Scheduled and charter fixed wing passenger flights the world over cannot operate.
It has been a turbulent few years for the Helicopter market. Difficulties have included volatile oil prices, persistence of oversupply in some sectors and challenging political environments in key recovery markets. Despite the challenges, there is evidence of recovery within the market, IBA are forecasting low levels of growth for the coming years.
The recent announcement of Bristow filing for CH11 once again illustrates the challenges faced by those investing and operating in the Helicopter Market. Despite the challenges, there are some positive signs in the market and low levels of growth are forecast for the coming years - up to 4%, with Asia providing some new opportunities.
With the current levels of turmoil and change in the helicopter sector, IBA is regularly being asked challenging questions about the future of the market. Owen Geach, IBA's Chief Commercial Officer takes a look at the future of leasing in the helicopter market.
移行
In recent years, the number of aircraft involved in lease end transactions has been increasing in line with growth of the global aircraft fleet. The volume of aircraft connected with operator failures has also risen over the last couple of years.
Why were commercial passenger aircraft ever invented, built, bought and sold or operated? The clue's in the name: the passenger. Many if not most travellers spare scant thought to the feats of engineering behind an aircraft's take-off and landing, not to mention keeping it airborne in between. What they will notice and expect when flying, however, is how the aircraft looks inside and whether it is clean, tidy and comfortable. So, having interiors in the best condition throughout the life of an aircraft is paramount for most operators.
Poorly managed redeliveries are a staggering waste of money. Every narrowbody and widebody whose redelivery is inefficiently handled can cost $USD 2 million and $USD 4.5 million respectively. Putting that into context, the unnecessary expenditure would be enough to fund six to eight months' lease rental for each aircraft, a Heavy C Check, or even an engine shop visit.
IBA's recent Market Update analysis covered a range of market dynamics including our thoughts on the Farnborough Airshow orders, the New Mid-Sized Aircraft and operator profitability. If you missed it, the materials can be accessed here.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says that about 40% of the global commercial aircraft fleet is under operating lease, and that trends indicate this percentage will increase. It emphasises the challenges that can arise when the lessee and lessor look at a lease from different perspectives.
航空機マネージメント
The traditional asset management practice of a financier or lessor performing an annual inspection of an aircraft and its records has been severely impaired since the pandemic took a grip of the World.
The grounding of hundreds of aircraft in the last 7 or 8 months has led to a wave of issues concerning extended periods of parking and storage.
The grounding of Boeing's troubled 737 MAX programme over 16 months ago had an enormous impact on the global aviation industry. Operators, lessors and airports were all impacted by the consequences as well as Boeing themselves. New flight control software has been developed in relation to the, much talked about, Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation Systems (MCAS) and a welcome recertification process is now possible. We can allow ourselves to realistically envisage a much-needed conclusion to the aircraft's grounding by Q3 or Q4 2020.
Two fundamental situations have prompted IBA Group and Split Rock Aviation to reflect on some key ‘industry standard' provisions within aviation lease agreements and re-evaluate their applicability and relevance: the 737 Max's grounding and the continued growth of leased aircraft in the industry. With the proportion of commercial aircraft leased now at 44% compared with 56% owned according to IBA's intelligence platform IBA.iQ, and witnessing the aviation industry's handling of the 737 Max's grounding, we have produced the first in a series of articles considering today's operating lease agreement. This segment will assess several industry standard lease agreement positions and test their logic in the current market.
The maintenance reserves industry is estimated to be worth $24bn per annum. Optimising your position to reduce financial exposure is a must for airlines and their stakeholders when selecting aircraft types, agreeing maintenance reserves, forecasting and modelling maintenance events and cash flow. Download IBA's quick guide for steps to consider before, during and at the end of a lease that will improve your cash flow and reduce exposure.
リース価格
Whilst 737 MAX sale and leaseback rates look set to strengthen in the near term, the future looks bleak for direct lease rates. As far back as the mid 2018s, lessors were experiencing difficulty placing the MAX, resorting to placements with weaker credit airlines at increasingly softer rates. By the end of the 2018s, rates had dipped as low as $270,000 - $280,000 and, as 2019 dawned, even before its grounding many lessors and operators were questioning the MAX's value against the comparative attraction of its 737-800 sibling.
As production draws to a close and the line moves over to the 777X, IBA's award winning appraisal team looks at the long term Lease Rate Performance for the 777-300ER. As of 30th January 2020, IBA's data intelligence platform IBA.iQ shows the 777-300ER fleet with 800 active aircraft, 18 parked/stored/damaged and 37 on backlog with zero part-outs.
In this joint session between IBA's Peter Walter and Guljar Lehri and IATA's DeeDee Doke and Chris Markou, we look at how airlines can manage their operating leases to avoid millions of dollars of unwanted and hidden cost.
The widebody leasing market is less fluid than that for narrowbodies and is heavily controlled by sale leasebacks for new deliveries. The market started its recovery from a post 9/11 slump in 2003 and this resurgence was affected by the global financial crisis only slightly. Since 2015, however, excess capacity has exerted immense pressure on rates in the market. Bankruptcies, fleet management decisions and lease ends, particularly young lease ends, have each played a part.
Historically, new delivery market lease rates have correlated well with 5-year swap rates, usually with a 6 to12-month lag. However, recent IBA research revealed that, despite rate increases since 2016, market lease rates have in contrast declined. We examined lease performances of the A320ceo and 737-800 both when new and at 10 years and summarise our key findings as follows:
The A330ceo is now in its replacement phase. Secondary market availability and storage are relatively high and the A330-200 in particular has been in oversupply for some time. Powered by IBA.iQ, our advisory teams have seen lease rates soften in recent years. The wave of pre-GFC delivered aircraft have returned from their initial leases which has put downward pressure on rentals in the market.
マーケット分析
Despite current aircraft utilisation falling far short of pre-pandemic levels, the industry is witnessing a modest boom in new airlines, with over 130 start-ups preparing for take-off in 2021 and 2022.
As the aviation industry begins to wake from its slumber in a post Covid-19 landscape, many of us have wondered what the future holds for new aircraft technologies. How will the leading OEMs and their respective stakeholders address commitment to a carbon neutral aviation industry by 2050? In recent years, development of battery-powered aircraft concepts has continued, various new start up ventures exploring this propulsion technology, its possible applications and the regulatory hurdles and infrastructure challenges battery-powered aircraft face. There have been no concrete commitments to purely electric aircraft by the leading OEMs owing to the energy density (or lack thereof) vs weight penalties inherent in flying intercontinental routes. This, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t a place in the market for electric propulsion; it has great potential for short regional flights with smaller capacity cabins operating out of airports and aerodromes that would typically not accept commercial traffic.
It goes without saying that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on the passenger demand for air travel. Since March, travel restrictions have been implemented for most of Europe due to government lockdowns and fears of spreading the virus. The following graphs outline the impact of Covid-19 on airline departures to Mainland Europe. Many airlines grounded their fleets as borders closed and lockdowns hampered the movement of passengers. As restrictions begin to ease a severely wounded aviation market is now beginning to recover.
There is a growing realisation that the Airbus A380 programme may have been short lived: with first deliveries of the aircraft type in October 2007, the industry was surprised to note the first A380 retirement in August 2017 - not one full decade later and well short of the expected 20 to 30 year life span of a commercial aircraft. Did the initial retirement, the subsequent retirement of three more examples, and the impact of Covid-19 sound the death knell for the A380 programme?
In response to the Airbus A350 program, Boeing unveiled its revamped 777X model with plans to fly it in 2017 and an entry into service date of 2019. Designated to become the largest twin-engine widebody and equipped with the latest General Electric GE9X engines and folding Wingtips, the Boeing 777X aircraft attracted a total of 66 orders in 2013. These consisted of orders from Lufthansa (20), Etihad Airways (25) and Cathay Pacific Airways (21). Emirates, in the following year, recorded the largest single order of 150 Boeing 777X models, which were then supplemented by 50 orders from Qatar Airways and 20 from ANA in the same year. Therefore, the number of orders received in 2014 accounted for over 60% of the aggregate order number for the Boeing 777X to date, according to IBA.iQ, as of July 2020. The twin-engine widebody has seen little growth in its order book since 2015, receiving only 58 orders from three airlines and one unidentified customer. Its latest confirmed order for 18 aircraft came from IAG and was announced at the 2019 Paris Air Show. The challenges of attracting more 777X orders stem not only from manufacturing delays caused by unexpected wear on the GE9X engine compressor, but also a combination of key external factors including widebody secondary market oversupply, the low fuel environment and the 737 MAX grounding. These negative influences have been amplified by the Covid-19 outbreak. In light of the global pandemic, extra-large widebodies such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft have been downgraded and their retirements from existing fleets accelerated. This indicates demand in this sector has been significantly cut and oversupply has been exacerbated. In addition to the early retirements, airline customers have been considering delaying deliveries of the Boeing 777X aircraft. Both Emirates and Lufthansa, both of which initially planned to receive their first 777X deliveries in 2020, have rescheduled for 2021 according to Boeing. The German national carrier is committing to a 2021 delivery despite the slowdown in its programme because of the pandemic. In November 2019 Boeing reported a change to its 777X orderbook, disclosing that Emirates exercised an order conversion for 30 B777X to the B787-9 aircraft and 11 confirmed B777X to options. At the same time, Emirates revealed that six of its 777-300ER orders were converted to the B777X which resulted in a total of 115 confirmed B777X orders in its current backlog. Due to Covid-19's impact on travel and the consequent imposition of global restrictions, airlines have been struggling and seeking out financial support so they can survive the unprecedented situation. Global downsizing in the fleets of airline companies has already begun and OEMs have introduced further cuts in their production lines, with the Boeing 777/777X combined production rate to be reduced to three per month in 2021. IBA has reviewed the current order backlog and the corresponding delivery stream of the Boeing 777/777X family so as to illustrate and highlight the plausible alternations to both order and delivery characteristics as a result of Covid-19. In this analysis, we are focusing on the current balance of Boeing 777/777X passenger aircraft orders received so far and excluding any speculative future orders. Please also note that the delivery figures in 2020 represent the whole year and do not include aircraft which have been built but not yet delivered due to the pandemic. Based on data from IBA.iQ, there were 309 Boeing 777X aircraft in Boeing's orderbook as of January 2020 plus 35 Boeing 777-300ERs and two 777-200LR aircraft which are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2023. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, Boeing has rescheduled introduction of its first 777-9X aircraft until at least 2021 and its 777-8X model until the following year. Therefore, the forecasted delivery pattern will inevitably be reshaped in the post-Covid era. In view of the delivery schedule alterations prompted by Covid, we have considered two scenarios regarding Boeing 777/777X future deliveries. In the ‘Base Case' scenario, we assume all orders in the current backlog will be fulfilled. However, since Boeing has adjusted its production rate for the B777/777X family, the subsequent production ramp-up for the 777Xs will be deferred by approximately 4-6 years. Although air passenger traffic has begun to slowly recover from the global pandemic, we believe Covid-19's impact on the global aviation industry will be long lasting. As airlines continue to file for bankruptcy or to enter Chapter 11 rejection scenarios, and the threat of a plausible second wave persists, any potential V-Shaped recovery is a long way off. Hence, it is essential we evaluate and prepare for a prolonged post-Covid crisis, which we define as the worst-case scenario in this analysis. While Boeing continues its 777X testing program, some airlines question the likelihood of an entry into commercial service occurring in 2021, as is currently planned. This concern has recently been highlighted by its largest customer, Emirates, in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Since Emirates expects its first delivery no sooner than 2022, we have adjusted the entry into service date of the first B777X aircraft to 2022 in our ‘Post-Covid Crisis Case'. In aggregate, we expect around one fifth of Boeing 777X current orders to be either converted to other models or cancelled in this ‘Crisis Case'. This is mainly due to airlines being desperate to ameliorate their balance sheets by removing their order burdens to help them survive the aftermath of Covid. Moreover, international travel demand is expected to take much longer to recover, which will significantly affect widebody operators. In April 2020, Cathay Pacific was contemplating adjustments to its B777X order, including lengthy delivery deferrals and the possibility of switching to the Boeing 787-10. Troubled Lufthansa is currently negotiating a restructuring deal with its shareholders, which might include a requirement to trim or remove its Boeing 777X commitment. The German flagship carrier already operates 16 Airbus 350-900s and has an additional 27 in its backlog. Turning to the Boeing 777-300ER order backlog, we believe it will be challenging to deliver all remaining orders. In 2012, Pakistan International Airlines placed an order for five 777-300ER aircraft which has since been in hibernation for over eight years. This order is likely to be converted to other Boeing aircraft types since the airline deposited US$ 50M when they made the purchase order. In addition, 15 777-300ER aircraft were ordered between 2014 and 2015 by unidentified customer(s) and are waiting to be delivered. However, many more aircraft have since been ordered and have already been delivered, leaving the future of the undisclosed orders uncertain. Although the Post Covid ‘Crisis' scenario for the future of the Boeing 777X family seems pessimistic, some airline customers remain positive about the newly developed widebody. In June 2020, Qatar Airways announced it will retire its entire fleet of Boeing 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft over the next four years. This will pave the way for the Boeing 777X. Since it will also accelerate retirements of its A330s in the near term and its A380 fleet by 2028, it is likely that Qatar will place some top-up orders for Boeing 777X models in the future. According to IBA.iQ, the Middle East carrier currently has 10 B777-8 and 50 B777-9 aircraft in its backlog. Apart from Qatar Airways, both Emirates and Etihad Airways show appetite for more Boeing 777X aircraft in their future fleets. Being the largest operator of both the Boeing B777-300ER (133) and the Airbus A380-800 (115), we expect Emirates will require more widebodies to fill the void created by the early retirements of its A380 fleet. Since there are more Boeing 777X in its backlog than the Airbus A350 family, the future top-up order will lean towards Boeing. Etihad expects to need more widebodies once it recovers from the current pandemic, and its orders are likely to be for B777Xs or A350s. In order to examine which airlines are likely to place orders for Boeing 777Xs in the future, we have created an illustrative chart which presents each airline with a score on an index of 10, 10 being the maximum and 0 the minimum. Essentially, the airline score index is an overview of a number of criteria which we're applying to assess the possibility of any future B777X orders. From an operational perspective, important elements include whether the airlines have any existing B777X orders or orders from competitive models such as the A350 and B787. We also consider whether the airline operates B777 family aircraft or has any A380s or B747s in its current fleet. The model takes several financial criteria into account as well, such as whether the airline required financial aid to overcome the Covid crisis, how the airline's financial status compares with the previous year and the forecast of its financial status in the near future. Based on the criteria mentioned above, we have established a chart which includes 20 airlines that are more or less likely to place future Boeing 777X orders. Most of the listed airlines are national flagship carriers which have wide international routes in their network, such as Air China, Saudi Arabian Airlines, ANA and Korean Air. Further, international airlines like Eva Air and Bamboo Airways are among the B777X's potential customers. Bamboo Airways has also been considering the 777X for US routes in forthcoming years. Many B777-300ER operators in Europe or North America have chosen to switch either to A350s, for example Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, or to scale down to the B787 as a replacement, as in the case of Air Canada and American Airlines. Hence, potential bidders for the B777X are mainly from the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Although the Boeing 777X will eventually enter into service and gradually replace old variants, Boeing's 777-300ER will remain a significant figure in this market segment with nearly 800 in-service units operating as of July 2020. A combination of the low fuel environment, the delayed B777X programme and the high popularity of large twin-engine widebodies has resulted in a recent increase in B777-300ER lease extensions. In October 2019, freighter conversion specialist Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and leasing giant GECAS unveiled the designated B777-300ER Special Freighter, with a launch order of 15 firm conversions and 15 options. In early June, GECAS delivered a B777-300ER to IAI for freighter conversion, which will become the prototype B777-300ERSF. Since the Boeing 777-300/300ER is the most popular aircraft type to be operated as a temporary freighter in the Coronavirus lockdown period, prospects for the B777-300ER freighter conversion programme look promising. The table below illustrates the passenger aircraft types which were employed as temporary freighters as of June. The market value and lease rates of mid-aged or older Boeing 777-300ER aircraft have been relatively stable compared with other similar widebody types. Current owners and operators of this type are more likely to hold onto the asset as potential feedstock for the converted Special Freighter, which has 25% more cargo capacity than the standard B777 freighter but maintains 90% commonality with its B777F counterpart. Even though a proposed 777X freighter is expected in the long-term, the initial B777 freighters will be approximately 10 years old by 2025. So far, Boeing has been vague about the specifications of its 777X freighter. All we know is that it is likely to be based on the smaller variant Boeing 777-8, which will be six meters longer than the Boeing 777-200LRF freighter. Despite prospects for large widebody aircraft having been dented by the global pandemic, we remain positive about the future of Boeing's 777X programme. Since most 777-300ER orders have been followed by its entry into service, we expect the 777X to perform similarly. However, we doubt order numbers will overtake those of the 777-300ER model due to direct competition from the Airbus A350 family which has comfortably occupied this market sector. Unlike the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft which are currently facing early retirement or fleet downsizing, the performance of twin-engine widebodies remains relatively consistent. As some airlines start to phase out their Boeing 777 fleet over the coming decade, we are likely to witness Boeing 777X family aircraft in the portfolios of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific flag carriers. Please contact Jie Zhou, our Senior Aviation Analyst, if you have any further questions, comments or feedback on the analysis discussed. The data featured within this article is derived from IBA.iQ, our leading platform for aviation intelligence. We are currently offering free system demonstrations, sign up here.
Using data from IBA.iQ, the chart below illustrates the impact of the current crisis on airline failure rates. For 2020, failures have intensified and survival of the fittest now depends on factors such as cash reserves, payment holidays and government aid until such time as the market re-opens and passenger demand returns.
According to the data published by the World Health Organisation, the number of total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1 million as of 4th April 2020, which has subsequently doubled to over 2 million in just two weeks. While the United States and many countries in Europe have seen a record number of confirmed cases and deaths, the condition in China, the original epicentre, has significantly improved and stabilised. COVID-19 has placed the entire community in a totally unprecedented territory, and its effects on the economy, lifestyle and culture will be long lasting. Despite the fact that the final statistics are yet to be concluded, the influence on the aviation market will be detrimental and profound.
The end of Q1 2020 saw claims emerging that several lessors had repossessed aircraft from Interjet. Sources indicate the repossession of at least 27 Airbus A320ceo and A320neo family aircraft from various lessors between March 24th and April 1st, with a further 20+ aircraft repossessed/returned to lessors from April 2nd to date. The ongoing Covid-19 situation is unprecedented, and no doubt plays a role in Interjet's difficulties. However, with lessors broadly agreeing payment deferrals with troubled airlines, these repossessions hint at ongoing, underlying problems at the airline.
Coronavirus (also referred to as Covid-19) has placed us in totally unprecedented territory; its effects are not localised or industry-specific but touch all aspects of our lives. Government interventions to protect businesses and society will be considerably more widespread than in previous downturn-triggering events, so what happens next is not necessarily what we would ‘normally' predict.
Stuart Hatcher, IBA's COO, says the impact of Covid-19 on airline and lessor finances will lead to a decline in aircraft values of over 10% for newer aircraft types and up to 30% for older aircraft in the short term.
The European ACMI (aircraft. crew, maintenance, insurance)/wet-lease market fleet has grown with an average growth rate (AAGR) of 13.4% in the last five years. According to IBA.iQ, in 2019 the market recorded the highest ever number of wet-lease transactions and year-on-year growth. The number of aircraft servicing the European ACMI market has also grown in tandem with European passengers and fleet growth, at a rate of 13% per annum ACMI operators' preference to lease mature aircraft presents a key opportunity for lessors and investors seeking to place aircraft coming off its 2nd/3rd lease.
Using IBA.iQ Fleets, at the time of Flybe's collapse, the carrier's fleet was comprised of a combination of De Havilland DHC8-400Q and Embraer E-Jet aircraft, totalling 68. The majority of the Flybe fleet consisted of DHC8 aircraft. With 54 such aircraft, Flybe was the largest active operator of the DHC8-400, accounting for almost 10% of the world in-service fleet. The parked and stored fleet of DHC8-400s has more than doubled as a result of the collapse of Flybe.
The result of 27 airlines ceasing or suspending operations in 2019 has been an increased supply of aircraft into the secondary market. The storage level of widebody commercial aircraft surpassed that of widebody and narrowbody aircraft combined since 2014 (excluding the Boeing Max in 2019). Additionally the number of parked and stored Airbus A330s, comprising both Airbus A330- 200 and A330-300 models, reached 161 in January 2020, representing a 13% storage level. As a result of this oversupply, lease rates and market values have been suppressed. However, the current low lease rates of A330s may open more opportunities for the low-cost long-haul carriers.
In early 2020, a previously unknown coronavirus struck Wuhan, capital of Hubei province and the most populated city in Central China with over 11 million inhabitants. Now known as Covid-19, the virus has spread rapidly across China and international travellers have taken it around the world. The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China to date disclosed that in China 70,640 people have been infected with 1,772 dead. The virus has yet to be contained and numbers are therefore still climbing.
Air Italy ceased operations on February 11th, following the shareholders' decision to liquidate the airline. Air Italy's cessation of operations appears to have been driven by Alisarda Group's (owned by the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development) desire to exit the investment given the carrier's deepening financial woes, with revenue trending lower and losses increasing. It appears Qatar Airways was prepared to inject more capital, however Alisarda Group wasn't prepared to commit further funds in light of "persistent negative market and industry conditions".
IBA Report: issued January 2020 by Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Operating Officer - Managing Director Aviation
Full visibility of an asset's performance and value is essential in order to maximise returns. Oversupply, residual concerns and high fuel prices are all contributing to a more fluid picture than in recent years, making asset selection more critical.
旅客機から輸送機へ交換
A new batch of P2F converted freighters is currently entering the market but what makes an aircraft appropriate for conversion? Here, IBA considers the factors influencing suitability and anticipates the market’s likely direction.
For a number of years now the widebody freighter market has really been focused, in terms of ordering activity and building fleet numbers, on three types, the Boeing 767-300ER, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F. These three types supplementing and/or replacing models such as the Boeing 747-400 and McDonnell Douglas MD-11, whether these be factory produced freighters or converted freighters. With production of the Boeing 747-8F expected to reach its conclusion in 2022 and Boeing 767-300ER feedstock winding down, attention inevitably turns to which types can fill the void, enter the Airbus A330P2F and Boeing 777-300ERSF.
Following IBA's mid-year P2F market update, Jonathan McDonald, Senior Commercial Ageing Aircraft Analyst, revisits the market to provide insight into current freighter market characteristics. This short webcast session looks at the conversion programme, growth forecasts, conversion costs, values and leasing rates, feedstock and lastly our view on current topics such as the pickle fork AD and the New Generation Boeing 777-300ERBDSF programme.
IBA Report: issued March 2019 Jon Whaley, IBA's Freight Analyst, explores fleet composition, market share and growth opportunities for the P2F market.
Freighter Conversions - capitalising on the resurgence in demand Freight volumes are continuing to trend on an upward trajectory and at a solid rate when compared to historical data. It should be noted however, that due to the inventory restocking cycle having concluded and manufacturing export orders remaining low, demand factors are lacking when compared to 2017. This paper looks at the current and future freighter market, production, routes into the market and takes a close look at a B737 conversion.
According to IATA's March 2018 Freight Analysis report, global freight volumes slowed to a 22-month low, 1.7% year-on-year in March. This outcome represents the slowest pace of annual growth since the early part of 2016. The decline in growth can predominantly be attributed to the end of the restocking cycle which was one of the drivers behind the high growth figures. IATA have cautioned against reading too much into the most recent figures and expects growth of 4-5% overall for 2018.
Passenger to freighter conversions will form a sizeable tranche of the ‘new' main deck metal entering the market over the next 20 years, according to airframers Boeing and Airbus.
環境
In response to widespread demand, IBA’s Tim Boon delivers an update on sustainable aviation finance and green initiatives for 2021. This popular report provides the latest on ESG regulation and compliance, green financing initiative and new developments in SAF and OEM advances.
ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), scheduled to commence in 2021 is designed as a global single market-based measure made to simultaneously complement a variety of governmental actions planned to secure carbon-neutral growth in aviation from 2021 onwards. The scheme intended to use CO2 emissions data from international airlines between 2019 and 2020 as a benchmark for future offsetting requirements.
The environment is a core issue for the aviation industry to manage and to ensure investors remain attracted to our industry to deliver sustainable growth. This roundtable session drew on the experience of key industry stakeholders to share current and future plans to address this challenge.
Aviation generates 2-3% of global CO₂ emissions and, if business continues as usual, is on course to produce double these emissions by 2037 when IATA predicts 8.2 billion annual air travellers. As a result, the industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its contribution to global warming and decarbonise operations in a bid to offset passenger growth. Sustainability and aviation's impact on the environment are significant issues facing the industry over the coming years, subjects which will be at the forefront of investment and business opportunities. This report explores the substantial achievements the aviation industry has made in technology, infrastructure and governance with the aim of giving a snapshot of the future challenges and solutions we collectively face as an industry.
Aviation connects our world and has facilitated the growth in globalization, promoting interconnectivity and transporting food and goods like never before. Climate change and aviation's impact on the environment have become a key issue across the globe, with ever increasing scrutiny being placed on airframers, engine manufacturers, airports and suppliers to collectively contribute towards the reduction of the industry's net carbon emissions by 2050. The challenges facing the aviation industry requires multi-faceted co-operation from governments, businesses and communities in order to meet its short term goals and long term ambitions to reduce net carbon emissions.
コロナウイルス
Pre-Covid, aircraft operating leasing was a very competitive space, capital having been flooding into the market over several years. Low interest rates drove increased interest in aircraft on operating leases as an investment class and we saw new players entering the market from Korea and, in particular, China. Many entities arose through joint ventures with existing European and North American lessors and via portfolio acquisitions.
In this short article, IBA's advisory team uses current IATA data together with its own Covid-19 research to spotlight the pandemic's global influence on aviation industry jobs, revenues and capacity and details the extent of government support for some airlines.
According to data published by IATA, the outbreak of Covid-19 could result in a 22% drop in passenger volume and a USD 4.4B, ~KRW (South Korean won) 5.4T loss, in passenger base revenue for the Korean air transport market this year. Further effects will inevitably be felt through the whole economy, potentially leading to the loss of around 160,000 jobs and a USD 9B (~KRW 11T) hit to GDP. IATA members have urged the Korean government to urgently extend direct financial support, loan guarantees, support for corporate bond issuance and tax relief to airlines.
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