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最新的洞见解读

It’s a “lessors’ market” says IBA, as engine lease rates and market values escalate
新闻与公共关系25Apr

It’s a “lessors’ market” says IBA, as engine lease rates and market values escalate

IBA experts predict a 40 per cent increase in shop visits from 2024 to 2025   IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and advisory company, has revealed that with rising engine lease rates and market values showing double-digit growth, the engine sector is now a “lessors’ market”. The latest IBA analysis shows that engine leasing activity has grown significantly with operators now favouring lease extensions to secure lift.   In its recent webinar on the engine market, experts from IBA, Mike Yeomans, Director – Valuations and Consulting, Kane Ray, Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket, and Jamie Davey, Manager – Engines and Parts, discussed and explained the trends.   As the industry continues to cope with supply chain issues and a shortage of spare parts and raw materials, IBA is holding firm to its view that there will be around 2,500 shop visits in 2024 for CFM56-5B, CFM56-7B, V2500-A5, CFM LEAP-1A, CFM LEAP-1B, and PW1100G engines (excluding additional shop visits driven by GTF engine issues). IBA predicts that this will be followed by a significant jump to 3,500 visits in 2025 – representing a 40 per cent increase.   However, between 2025 and 2027, the situation should come to a slight plateau at around 3,800 visits annually, before peaking at over 4,000 visits in 2028. With the continued staffing shortages in MRO facilities and OEMs facing supply chain issues and scarce shop visit slots, operators will continue to extend current engine leases to combat shop visit turnaround times and uncertainty in new generation engine reliability.   While quality issues still plague the new generation narrowbody fleets, market values remain stable. Driven by shop visit events, the greatest market value movements can be seen in the current generation fleet. The CFM56-7B is seeing the highest market value change with an increase of around 20 per cent from 2023 to 2024. As a result of GTF groundings and growing shop visit activity, A320ceo engine values have also increased.   As the engine market recovers, lease rates for current and new narrowbody engines have risen above pre-pandemic levels. Due to smaller supply and higher demand, V2500-A5 lease rates are slightly higher than CFM56-5B in 2024. However, CFM56-7B monthly lease rates have grown the most from about $75,000 in 2019 to $100,000 in 2024. In the new narrowbody engine leasing space, A320neo engine-related groundings have led to increases in monthly lease rates with the LEAP-1A26 climbing from a value of $110,000 in 2023 to above $125,000 in 2024.   Lease rate increases can also be attributed to the rise in engine and aircraft lease extensions as the latter contributes to reduction of spare engine supply in the market. As extensions help avoid transition costs, they have become the most cost-effective option for lessors.   While the freighter market remains strong - demand has peaked. However, ideal widebody freighter conversion candidates such as the A330-300 and 777-300ER are surging in passenger demand driven by delays to new aircraft deliveries. Despite the rising engine values for New Generation Widebody Engines, the relationship between market values and base values have steadied with changes at barely 5 per cent.   With a shortage of spare parts and long turnaround times in shops, turboprop engines have experienced heightened demand. IBA has recorded market value increases to the popular PW127M and PW150A variants, although the trend is applicable to other PW120 engine family variants. Whilst PW1500G values have been adjusted to align better with base value, GTF issues will still affect the fleet. For mature regional jet engines like the CF34-8E, market values are stable. The CF24-8E and CF34-10E engine markets have had indications of demand increases and lease rate rises as Embraer E190 family lease extensions grow and, most importantly, signal future demand for engines.   

IBA's Engines Explained: The Outlook
网络研讨会18Apr 2024

IBA's Engines Explained: The Outlook

This webinar, moderated by Mike Yeomans, and featuring Kane Ray and Jamie Davey, discusses the latest trends in the aviation engine market, highlighting the impacts of increased demand for air travel and OEM/MRO supply chain bottlenecks on aircraft engine values.   Summary Much like the aircraft they power, the trend is for spare engines with existing leases to be extended due to the service extension of current-generation aircraft, increased shop visit demand, new-generation engine quality issues, and a lack of spare parts.   These challenges have caused rises in market values and lease rates with IBA identifying evolving trends for supporting future rises. One of these trends is the expected demand for engine shop visits in the coming years. Lease rates have largely recovered to pre-COVID levels, with the CFM56-7B engine and the V2500-A5 engine families being notable movers. The panellists also discussed the shift in the trading market, the wide-body market, new-generation engine values, and the regional market.   Speakers Mike Yeomans, Director - Valuations and Consulting, IBA Kane Ray, Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket, IBA Jamie Davey, Manager - Engines & Parts, IBA   Key Takeaways Aviation Engine Demand Surge: The aviation engine market is experiencing a surge in demand due to increased air travel and the impact of COVID-19, leading to a rise in lease extensions due to a lack of engine supply. Engine Supply Shortage Factors: Factors such as increased shop visit demand, new generation engine quality issues, and a lack of spare parts in the MRO world are causing a shortage in engine supply. Increasing Market Values: Despite the challenges, market values are increasing due to the lack of supply, with even slower-to-recover segments such as the widebody market now experiencing demand, i.e. the General Electric GE90-115B powering the Boeing 777-300ER. Rising Engine Shop Visits: Engine shop visit demand is on the rise, with the narrowbody fleet expected to see further increases in the upcoming years. Recovered Lease Rates: Lease rates have recovered to pre-COVID levels for many engine variants, with engines like the CFM56-7B and the V2500-A5 seeing lease rate increases. Mature Engine Demand Increase: In both narrowbody and widebody markets, service extensions for mature aircraft have led to some significant increases in market values. This is most evident for mature engine variants with existing passenger fleets. Turboprop Engines Demand: The regional market is experiencing an increase in demand for turboprop engines, impacting market values and lease rates, with operators trying to find lift wherever possible.   "The (engine) leasing market is currently experiencing a lot of lease extensions due to a lack of engine supply, particularly for current generation engines. This lack of supply is being caused by factors such as increased shop visit demand, new-generation engine quality issues, and a lack of spare parts in the MRO world. Despite these challenges, market values are increasing due to the lack of supply.”       Watch On-demand   Click here

6 Key Factors Affecting Aircraft Engine Values in 2024
文章

6 Key Factors Affecting Aircraft Engine Values in 2024

  In recent months, the aircraft engine market has continued to see a surge in demand for many engine types following quality issues on the newer generation engines, including the PW1100G, a focal engine in this commentary. These quality issues combined with a lack of spare engines and material for shop visit events, fuel inflated demand as we head into Q2 2024. Furthermore, all aircraft engine product families continue to face above-average cost escalations resulting in higher cost of ownership which continues to prove a challenge for those invested.    As a result, IBA's engine valuations team has increased its narrowbody engine market values and identified some key market factors contributing to this.


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