Newswatch: 4th January 2017
Happy New Year from all at IBA. Starting as we mean to go on, we wanted to share our latest intelligence on 2016 orders. Airbus and Boeing will announce their final orders for year-end in the next week or so but this document represents our view on orders up to January 2nd. Click here to view the table. We have included the Iranian orders and no doubt a few more will appear in the next week. The highlights include:
- As forecast, 2016 was a slower year than 2015.
- Boeing’s orders are down 17% year on year, Airbus are looking at a decline of around 30%.
- Deliveries for Boeing were also down, with Boeing’s forecast from Jan’16 of building around 20 fewer aircraft proving impressively accurate. Airbus saw a 7% increase in deliveries on the year. Both OEMs need to increase production to make a meaningful dent in their respective backlogs.
- Within aircraft types, Airbus saw increases across the A320ceo and the A350 – including hitting its target of 50 aircraft. However this was offset by a drop in A320neo orders driven in part by engine challenges and lower fuel price. Boeing saw a gentler decline across types, plus a small spike in 747-8 orders thanks to the 20 ordered by Volga Dnepr.
- Cancellations and order conversions have increased, IBA has recorded 360 adjustments in 2016 compared to 213 in 2015, a 69% increase.
IATA predicts lower airline profits in 2017 so we would expect to see more sale & leasebacks in 2017 as airlines convert assets to cash. Combined with lessors’ desire to increase their portfolios – we expect competitive deals to continue as lessors encourage airlines to unburden their owned aircraft into more flexible lease deals.
We will be looking back at 2016, and looking forward to what 2017 will bring in our webinar on 12th January. Click the link to register: Market forecast 2017 – what to expect in the next 12 months.
Finally, we will be in Dublin en masse with meeting facilities at both the Shelbourne and the Conference Centre from 15-20 January. Please contact IBA’s chief commercial officer, email@example.com for a meeting, especially if you have views on fleet and values databases as we will have some exciting news to discuss in the near future. We also have a number of complimentary delegate passes for our airline clients and contacts, please get in touch with us at firstname.lastname@example.org if you could make use of one and we will pass them on if still available.